Axis: HD Analog Will Die Out

By: Brian Karas, Published on Nov 18, 2016

If you are a fan of HD analog, stock up now.

Axis says the popular low-cost architecture is going to reverse course and die out in the next couple of years.

Axis has moved from misunderstanding HD analog, to creative positioning against HD analog, to outright proclaiming its impending death.

In this report we analyze Axis' prediction that the end of HD analog is ahead, and why this is unlikely to go as they predict.

** *** *** * fan ** ** ******, stock ** ***.

**** **** *** ******* low-cost ************ ** ***** to ******* ****** *** die *** ** *** next ****** ** *****.

**** *** ***** **** **************** ** ******, ** ******** *********** ******* ** ******, ** outright *********** *** ********* death.

** **** ****** ** analyze ****' ********** **** the *** ** ** analog ** *****, *** why **** ** ******** to ** ** **** predict.

[***************]

Axis' *****

**** ******* ******* ******* Nilsson******:

**** ** ***** ** the ** ***** ** the ***- *** ***-*****, there *** * *** of ****** ********* *** hybrid ********* **** ******-***** solutions **** *** ***********, not ********, *** * think **** *** ***** to **** * **** for * ****** ** years *** **** **** are ***** ** *** out ** ****.

******* **** **** **** *** is ****** * ******* prediction, ***** ***** ** a *********** ***** **** their******** ******** ** ** analog ******.

** ****** ****** ** Cost

** ****** ** ********* **** at **-**% ***** **** than ********** ** *******, and *** ***** ** these ******* **** ** * major ******. ** ****** customers are ********* *** ***** enterprise-level ******** ** ****** resolutions ****** * *** megapixels, ***** ***** ** analog * **** ***.

HD ****** ********** **********

** ****** ** *********** even **** ** ** with ***** ******** * 4MP ** ****** ******, and ********* *** ** 3MP. **** ***** ** analog * ****** *********** in ***** ** ********** for **** ***********, **** those ******* *** **** than ******* *****. 

*** *******, *****'* *** 4MP ** ****** ******'* image ******* ****** **** more ********* ** ****, in *** *********** *** ****.

Proprietary ********* ***********

***** ***** *** ******** standards *** ** ****** equipment (*.*., ***, ***, AHD), *****-******** **** (********** TVI, *** *** ***) are ***** ********** ** the ******, ******** **** of *** ******* *** this *****.

*****, **** ** "***********", HD ****** ********* ****** for **** ****-*-**** *****, a ***** **** *** many *********** *** *** end-users. * ****** ****** would ****** ***** ******* growth ** ** ******, *** even ******* ******** *** been ******.

*********** *** * ***********

** ****** ******* **** been ********* ******* **** do *** **** * lot ** ***********. ***** sites, ********* *********, *********** applications - ***** ******* generally ** *** ******** to **** *** ****** over ****, ***** ********** customer ******** **** ****** scalability. *** ***** ***** between ** * ******* DVR *** * ** channel *** ***** ** be *******, ** ********* are ***** ********* **** scalability **** *** ****** their ****** ********* ********* for * *** ******* dollars ** *****. 

HD ****** ******* ** *****

** ****** ******* *** fewer components **** ** ******* to ******* *** **** resolution *** ********** ***** quality. **** ***** *** cameras * ***** ********* that ** ******* *** not ****. *** ******** ** shifted ** *** ********, with multi-channel ******** ****** ** possible ** *********** ***** and ****** *** *****. Because ** ****, ****** IP ******* *** ******** to **** ** ******* than ********** ** ****** systems, ** ****** *** far **** *** ****-**-***-****** drags *******.

HD ****** ****** *****

** **** **** **** ******** in ******** ***** ****, but ******* ** ** analog *** ** ***** faster *** ****** ** get ** *** *******. This **** ** ** the **** ********* ** HD ******, ***** *** only *** *** ********** cheaper, *** ************ ***** are ******* ** ****.

HD ****** *** * **** ********

***** ** ** ****** to ******* **** ** analog **** *** *** in *** ****** *****. The **** ***** **** could ****** ** ***** be ** **** ******* alternative, *** ** **** happened ** ***** ***** leave **** ** *** position ** *** ***** able ** ******* *** price ******* *** ***** products ** ****-********* *******.  

Will ** ****** *** *** ****?

Comments (62)

He's is seriously in denial

As a company that manufacturers our own HD Analog cameras, yes, please stock up. lol

I disagree with him. Why would the AHD upward trend of the last 3 years suddenly reverse course?

To say it will die in a "couple years" (2), nah.

Eventually, or, in a "few years"... sure. For now, HD over coax solutions are the only offering RELIABLE, solid-state, latency-free performance, whether on legacy coaxial cabling or cat5 with baluns.

With Dahua CVI now offering 4MP, with 4K on the horizon, and coming soon, power over coax as well as CVI/TVI/AHD/analog/IP support, we just bought HD over coax a few more years.

There's some irony here. Not too many years ago, SD analog companies were saying IP was a fad.

"During an in-person discussion Nilsson stated that IHS is making a similar prediction, which would be a significant shift from their previous position on HD analog growth."

Is Mr. Nilsson insinuating that IHS will be making a similar prediction or that they already have made it?

He claimed IHS has already made this statement in a report. I could not find it in any publicly available report or summary to link to though.

Does anyone have a cogent theory about why HD analog will die in the next few years? I'd be curious to hear it.

The closest thing I heard is the preference for Cat cable / structured cabling which I certainly believe is a real factor for mid to high end deployments but not for lower end / smaller ones where low cost, simple install more than make up for any concerns about using coax.

Does anyone have a cogent theory about why HD analog will die in the next few years? I'd be curious to hear it.

If the megapixel race is not over at 4k, then HD Analog's trick of trading frames for pixels will become obvious as the frame rates descend into the single digits.

Though 4k 7.5 fps might suffice for a bit...

If the megapixel race is not over at 4k

Of all people, Fredrik surely knows the megapixel race is long over....

Resolution available will continue to go up, by 2020, 20MP+ will likely be the equivalent of today's 4K.

But the thing is: How much more resolution will the SMB user demand for their typical indoor application? At some point, the barrier shifts from insufficient pixels to physical barriers, i.e., not being able to see around / through walls.

Related: Camera Coverage Areas

I don't know many new installs that are being wired with COAX, but that doesn't preclude HDA from being used. While CAT cable is certainly cheaper and arguably cheaper to install, it can be leveraged by both technologies. I don't see either IP or HDA dying anytime soon. Even if mass appeal isn't garnered by HDA, there will always be niche markets that will adopt its use.

Even if mass appeal isn't garnered by HDA

By units globally, almost certainly there is more HDA being sold than IP cameras. So it has 'mass appeal.'

By dollar value, of course, it is different, since IP cameras are so much more expensive (both due to higher component costs and skew towards much more advanced expensive IP models).

I am kind of surprised that HDA outsells all IP products. I would not have expected that. Good to know.

A lot of that (HD analog adoption) is driven by poorer countries and consumer / home use (e.g., Costco) in the West where price is more important.

With that noted, Axis target market of mid to high end Western corporations / government is clearly overwhelmingly IP by units and dollar sales.

AXIS is starting to sound more like Pelco everyday that goes by.....

I am just waiting for HD analog that isnt made by the chicom government so I load up on it. Mainly just a HD analog encoder that is ONVIF compliant......

Hanwha is not owned by the chinese government, it makes HD Analog, though you're out of luck on the ONVIF encoder as of now.

TL;DR hope is not a strategy.

I may get slack for this but what happened to Todd Rockoff? It's like he fell off the face of the earth.

I may get slack for this but what happened to Todd Rockoff?

That's funny....

For background, Rockoff was the founder of the HDcctv Alliance back in 2009. At that time, Rockoff was backing SDI and the HD analog variants did not exist for many years to come.

Rockoff took a wildly antagonistic approach even to his potential customers.

His last ditch effort was to get naive Dahua to fund him. However, he has been mostly unseen in more than a year.

I think with the rise of HD analog and the Chinese manufacturers, Rockoff was no longer needed. I do feel a little bad for him but he really brought it on himself.

It's like he fell off the face of the earth.

Oh, heavens no. He was acquired by the Chinese state as intellectual property in a complex three way stock swap.

He now runs a small coffee shop in downtown Shenzhen.

There is zero reason he provides for why AHD will die out. It may not be enterprise ready and may never get there but that does not mean that dominating the SMB and residential markets is a recipe for failure. Without some means to substantiate his claims this holds no water.

More and more Axis has been resistant to change, instead choosing to start to eat from Milestone's lunch box by building out their VMS. I agree with Eddie that this does feel like Bosch and Pelco's 2005-2007 era strategy of addressing IP surveillance questions:

While they continue to make a multi channel encoder that will connect 4-16 channels of analog for a single VMS channel license on some systems....analog will live on.

a multi channel encoder that will connect 4-16 channels of analog for a single VMS channel license on some systems....analog will live on.

That's a very very small part of HD analog cameras sold. Overwhelmingly HD analog is sold in kits or small camera count systems that never get connected to VMS software.

That said, what you describe is something that could actually expand if multi-channel HD analog encoder options increased (e.g., if Axis did one, which will probably never happen :)

The main advantage as many time said, you can install with the old coaxial cabling, but when it comes you really install in a 10 year old cable environment, you screwed up many times, as 10 days ago cheap cables were really suck. So for new installation I can expect, but it is up to your luck what can you do in a really old environment.

Compare with Axis H265 prediction. Maybe axis feels if THEY say it enough times it will be true.

Good advertisement for Dahua CVI. Bravo!!

With 300+ votes, 75% disagree about HD analog dying in the next few years.

Interestingly, integrators are even more bullish than manufacturers with 83% of integrators saying HD analog won't die, vs 68% of manufacturers. This differential likely also reflects that far fewer manufacturers carry HD analog. This will be one of the more interesting elements - will non-Chinese manufacturers like Avigilon, ACTi, Axis, Panasonic, Pelco, Sony ever release any HD analog?

Every single IP Manufacturer has said this. All of them are wrong.

HDA is here to stay
It will never die
It has come a long, long way
Others only lie
I don't care what Nilsson say
HDA is here to stay

Reference for the youngsters: Danny and The Juniors (1958)

I'm almost positive that 1958 is before my grandparents met.

I am really wanting Exacq to be able to work with HDA encoders.

Starting look at Video Insight just for that reason alone. Although VMS looks nice.

Does anyone know of a decent CVI encoder with ONVIF support? I saw a comment that was eluding to the lack of one.

Could really use some help!! Thanks!

Hey Brent- I emailed you @ your PCO email address...

Axis need to clean their act up. We ordered 3 Axis M3045-V Mini domes from an Axis official distributor on Monday. They arrived, we tested them and two out of the three were faulty, their web pages would not load in any Web Browser (Chrome, Firefox or IE). Axis asked us to download the log files, how can we cannot access the cameras, what great technical support. The distributor has none and Axis is an online chat with someone who doesn't have any common sense. We secured 3 HIKVision dome cameras as a last minute replacement, for half the price, bosh all three 100% out of the box and tech support from our distributor, we are new to HIKVision, was 100% on the ball.

If you're ok with government owned network hardware on your network then knock yourself out.

What if it's on a separate network, then you're ok with it?

No, I am not. I learned a long time ago not to sell "cameras" and to sell solutions that solve customers problems. When you think like this price is not the driving factor and we are lucky enough to have many customers that are looking for a better solution than cheap cameras owned by a government.

So what's the point of your comment "gov owned hardware on your network"? Why not simply say "if you're ok with supporting a gov owned entity"? It cuts to your core issue. Otherwise, I can quickly give you ways to mitigate the inherent risks involved. But you're an intelligent guy. You know that's easily done.

I can quickly give you ways to mitigate the inherent risks involved

Even though you could potently mitigate the risks your still supporting the problem.

See, I knew you were intelligent enough to trim the fat and get to the core argument. I can honestly respect that. I might not object to it like you do, but I respect that you do and it's your choice. All the fluff about are they safe blah blah blah, really clouds the core issue.

And it's not like I am PRO gov owned orgs, it's just that I don't know that it matters to me TBH. When the US gov owned GM and Chrysler, I didn't think less of their products. I just don't think there is some great hidden agenda, other than the obvious. They want their brand to do well. It's quite capitalistic of them to want so.

Gov subsidies aren't just a foreign thing either. Our US gov subsidizes many industries. It's not inherently evil to do so.

I hope you are right. I hope that this is something that will not be used for evil. But I think it will be WAY too tempting/convenient for a government entity to use millions of network devices as a weapon to do catastrophic damage to financial and critical infrastructure.

I agree. That would be bad.

A quick question tho, what was your take on the NSA infecting Xcode in China, which lead to the exploited Hikvision app? Do US lead initiatives offend you as much, or is that more fair game?

I hope you are right. I hope that this is something that will not be used for evil. But I think it will be WAY too tempting/convenient for a government entity to use millions of network devices as a weapon to do catastrophic damage to financial and critical infrastructure.

You agree with this statement yet you are ok with perpetuating this. That baffles me.

A quick question tho, what was your take on the NSA infecting Xcode in China, which lead to the exploited Hikvision app? Do US lead initiatives offend you as much, or is that more fair game?

I control what I can and this is something I can't. There is a cyber war going on right now that we have no clue about. The US launched Stuxnet which was the nuclear weapon of the cyber world. This will never be put back in the bottle and will only get worse.

I learned a long time ago not to sell "cameras" and to sell solutions that solve customers problems. When you think like this price is not the driving factor and we are lucky enough to have many customers that are looking for a better solution than cheap cameras owned by a government.

So you've never sold any Hikvision?

It the US Gov doesn't own them ..... =|

lol

*But

Keep in mind you also said you would have no problem selling US government owned gear too.

Does that surprise you? I don't see it being a big deal. I think the NSA and equivalents around the world are way above my abilities and not much I can do to stop them. Selecting a brand of camera has very little bearing IMO.

And taking money away from China should be seen as a positive, if you are patriotic. They are burning cash, which I'm glad to take advantage of. The more the better. If they stop subsidizing someday, I will reevaluate my position. But for now, I will be glad to take their handouts.

You are smart too and I am sure you could find another non-government owned solution if you wanted to. I don't want to put my business in jeopardy if and when something happens.

To be honest, Dahua has exposed me to much more liability than any other brand.

Hope you had a great holiday!

I did and I hope you did you. Great talk about very important info in our industry.

All HIK has to do is to buy shares from government

and then hopefully everybody would shut up

Childs play compared to this:

If you're ok with government owned network hardware on your network then knock yourself out.

No, not unless you're ok with it.

You're good with Dahua though, right?

Dahua isn't owned by a government. They were also a part of largest DOS attack in the history of the internet. They also have a very sloppy go to market strategy that has screwed over customers that we have worked with.

Hi, the reason I am a member of IPVM is to keep abreast of what is happening in our industry, so thanks, but I was already aware, and I think that you are missing my point. Axis has grown to be a world leading supplier of IP surveillance systems, and it got complacent. Now it is meeting a real challenge to its position, instead of buckling down and dealing with the issue, it has gone back into its fairy tail PR mode. I cant remember the number of years Axis predicted the 'Death of Analogue CCTV', and what do you know, its still hear and fighting back. My fear is that rather than deal with the issue, Axis are letting their standards slip, i mean 66% out of box failure, poor or no technical support, what does that telegraph to me about the brand. Oh, and lastly I have no worries about HIKVision on this site, it is a closed system with no external connectivity or touching points with any other network.

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