Collapsed Growth, Collapsed Pricing, IHS Now Admits

Author: John Honovich, Published on Jun 22, 2016

The downturn in global video surveillance growth and camera pricing are the two most important themes for the industry today.

We have been calling this out for years, starting most notably with other 2014 Falling Down guide that declared:

Falling down - the theme of the 2014 video surveillance industry. This is the toughest stretch for the industry overall, since at least the 2008-2009 recession.

Moreover, in January 2015, we called the China the #1 threat to the industry.

And the industry, especially for manufacturers and distributors, has gotten much worse. Now, IHS has admitted their rosy 2015 forecast was wrong and the numbers are quite bad.

IHS Background

IHS video surveillance (formerly IMS Security) primarily sells numbers to large manufacturers, asking manufacturers to share their revenue and then re-selling the aggregated numbers back to manufacturers. In addition, they make financial projections, typically bullish that please their manufacturer customers.

In January 2015, IHS declared:

The global video surveillance industry can defy conventional market logic, resist product commoditization and still grow by more than 10 percent in 2015

Logic was not defied.

*** ******** ** ****** ***** ************ ****** *** ****** ******* are *** *** **** ********* ****** *** *** ******** *****.

** **** **** ******* **** *** *** *****, ******** **** notably **** ********* ******* **** ********* ********:

******* **** - *** ***** ** *** **** ***** ************ industry. **** ** *** ******** ******* *** *** ******** *******, since ** ***** *** ****-**** *********.

********, ** ******* ****, ** ****** *** ***** *** #* ****** ** *** ********.

*** *** ********, ********** *** ************* *** ************, *** ****** much *****. ***, *** *** ******** ***** **** **** ******** *** ***** and *** ******* *** ***** ***.

*************

*** ***** ************ (******** *** ********) ********* ***** ******* ** large *************, ****** ************* ** ***** ***** ******* *** **** re-selling *** ********** ******* **** ** *************. ** ********, **** **** financial ***********, ********* ******* **** ****** ***** ************ *********.

** ******* ****,*** ********:

*** ****** ***** ************ ******** *** **** ************ ****** *****, resist ******* *************** *** ***** **** ** **** **** ** percent ** ****

***** *** *** ******.

[***************]

Collapse ******** 

***, ** **** ****,*** ************ ****** *** *** **** **** **** *********:

*** ***** ****** *** ************ ***** ************ ********* **** ** 1.9% ** ******** ** ****. 

*** **** ***** **** ****** **** *** ****** ***** ** *.*%, but **** ****** **** ****'* **.*% ******.

**********, **** ************ *** ****** ***** ***** *********:

*** ******** ** *** ****** ** ***** ** **** *** largely ******* ** ***** *******. **** ********* ** ******** ******* in ***** **** ******* *** *** ******* ****** ** ******* and ********* **** *******.

** **** ******** *** ***** ***** ******** ****: ** ****** ******* *** ******* ********** **** *** *** *** *** ** **** ************ ********** ** **** with ****** **** **** / ***** *** ****** / ******* ************** *** *** Pricing.

True ******* ****** ~-**%

** ******** **** *** **** ******* ************ ****** **** ** around -**%. **** ** * ******** **:

  • ******* ***** ************ ******* ** ******* ******* *** ******* ****.
  • ******* ************* *** ******* ******** ** *** **** (** *** range ** ~**%) *** ****** *********** ***** **** ******* *************.

**** ********* **** ****, *** ******** **** *** ******** *** ****** **** on ********* **** *** ******* ***** ************ ************,**** **** *%**** ****. **** ** '***' *** **** ***, ******** ** how *** *** ****** **, ********** ****.

********** **** *** *** *** ****** **** ******* ************* *** those ******* ** *** ***** ** *** *** ** *** market.

Weakening ******* ****** ********

**** ********** ******* ** ******* ********* ***** **** ** ************ *** ****, but *** ****** ******* ******* ****** ******** **** ******* ******* growth ****** ** *****, ***** **** ******* ************* *** ********** to **** **** * **** ******* ******** ******. ***** ***** of ******* **** ******, ******* ************* *** *** ****** ** fight ****** ** *** *** ** *****.

**** ******* ******** ***** ****** *********, *** ******* ****** ** international *********, ************ *** **** ********* *** ***** *** ********* so ******* ** *** ****, **** ** ********* *** ** find *** ******* *******. *** **** ** **** **** **** / ******* *********, **** **** ** ********* ****** ** ****** in *** ***** ****.

Good *** ***********?

***********, **** *** **** **** *** **** *********** *** ******** *** cost ******** *** **** **** ** ****** ***** ******** *** beat ****** *** ******** ** **** **** ******* *************. ******, ****, ******** *** ********* ******* ***** ****** *** *********** *********** **** ****** ***** ** *********.

*******, ** **** ***** ** *** **** *** *****, **** most *********** ****** ******* ******* *** **** ******* ********, *** advantage *** ***** ******* *********** **** ********* *** *********** **** face ***** ***** ******* *** **** *********** ****** **** ****** scale ****** ********** **** ****** *** *** ********.

Outlook - ******** ** **** ** ***** ****** *********

******* *** ***** **** ******* ********* *** ******* ***** ** and **** ** ******** ** ******** / ********* ******* ** the **** *** ***** *** ****** ******, ** ****** ******* growth ***** ** ****** ****, *** ******* ************* ** ******** to ******, ***** *** ***** ** *** ******* ******.

*** ******* ***** ***** ************ ************ *********, ******, ** ********. This **** *** ****** *** ******** *** ** * ******** of *** ******* ******* ********** / ******** ********* (*.*., *****'* **** ** ***% ** *** *** '***** ** *****', ***** **** **** ******* ****** **** ** **** ** ******* mounts, ***.). ** *** **** **** ******** / ********** / corrects, *** ****** ** ******* ***** ************ ************* **** ** severe, **** *********** *** ******** ****** **** ******** ***** ********** and *** **** ************ **** ******** ***** ************* *********.

** *** ***** ****, *** ******* ********** *** ****** ******** over *** ******* *** *** *******, ** ** ***** ** many ***** *** ******* ** *****.

**********, ******, *** ***** ** ****, *** ****** *** ********* success ** *** ****** ***** ************ ****** **** ** ********* driven ** *** ******* **********.

Comments (7)

Undisclosed #1

06/22/16 03:52pm

** *** ******(**) ****, *** **** ********* **** ** ******* shipped **** ***-** ******* ** ****. ***** *** ** *** first **** ****.

***!

** **** *** ** *** **** **** *** **** ****.

John Honovich

IPVM | In reply to Undisclosed #1 | 06/22/16 04:48pm

****, *******, **** **** **** **** ** ****** ******* ****** down ******* *******.

**** ** *** **** **** ** * - ** ***** ago, **** **** **** **** **** **** ** ****** ** IP ***** ** ******* ******* *** ***** *******.

Thumbnail dsc00412 2

Jonathan Lawry

Trecerdo, LLC | 06/22/16 08:51pm

* ***** ** ****, **** ** ******** *****, "*** ********* hires ************** ****** ******* ***** **** ** ******** **********. **** always ********************* ** *** ********* ** *** ****, *** ******* ****** down *** ****. *** ***** ****** *** ***** ********?"

**** ***** ** ******** **** *********.

Undisclosed #1

In reply to Jonathan Lawry | 06/22/16 09:05pm

****'* **** *** **** **** *********** ****** ***.

John Honovich

IPVM | In reply to Jonathan Lawry | 06/22/16 09:36pm

*** *** / *** ** ******** ********** ******* ** *******. You ***** ***** ** *** **** ******* * **** ****** product ($*,***+ *** ******), *** ***** **** *** ******* **** people **** ******** ****** *********.

** ***** ** *** ****** ***** *** **, ***** **** not **** ** ** **** ****** ** (**** ****** *****: large ********* ************, **** ******* ******* ** ****** **** ***** surveillance ** ******* *********).

*** ******* *****:

  • **** ******* ***** ******* ** ***** *********** *** ********. *** numbers *** ********* *** (***** ********** ** ****** ****) *** at ***** *** *** *********, ** ** *** **** ** have * ****** *** **** ***** ** ** ******* ** Exacq ** *****, ***. ***, *** **** **** **.
  • ******** ** ******* ***** ** **** * ********** ****** ** justify * **** ** **********. ** **** **** **** **** to **** (**** ** *** ****** **** *** * **** CAGR ********* *** ******** **** ***** ******* ** ******? *** give ** ** ** ** ******* ******** ** * *******). My ********** ** **** **'* ********** ** ** **** ******** / ********** *** *** ****** ** *****.
  • *********. *** ****** **. **** ************* *** **** *** #*, it's ***** ** ******** ** ******** ********* ** ***** *** category. *** **** * ***** *** ** ******** ****** ** categories **** **** ******* ******* ** #* ** *********.

*******, *** ******* ****** / ***** ******** ***** ** * turn *** ** ******** ******** *** ***** *** **** ********** or ***** ** *** ****** ****** **** *** ******** **** want ** **** ******** ******, **** ** *****. ***, ** defense ** ***, **** **** ** ** *** **** ************ than *** ******* *** ** ***** ******** ******** **** **** more ********** *********,**** *** *** **** ****** *** ******* **** ****.

Horace Lasell

06/23/16 03:03am

"** **** ***** ** *** **** *** *****, **** **** integrators ****** ******* ******* *** **** ******* ********, *** ********* for ***** ******* *********** **** ********* *** *********** **** **** lower ***** ******* *** **** *********** ****** **** ****** ***** direct ********** **** ****** *** *** ********."

** ***** *** ******** ** *** *******, ***'* *** ** imagine **** ***** ****** ** ******** ***** **** ***** ** zero. ** *****'* ******* *********** * ***** ******** *****, ******* might ** ********* *** ****** **** **** *** **** ** shipping, ******** ** **** ** *****'* ********* ** ********* -- perhaps * **** ** **?

**** ***** **** *************, *** *** **** **** ****** **** work. ********* **** * ******** **** *** *** **** ****** awareness **** ****** **** *** ***'* ** ***** ***** ***, for *******, ** ******* **** ******-** **** ********.

*********** ********* *** **** ******* **** ** ****** ***** ********* can ******* ****** *****. *'* **** ** ******* **** ***-***** installers **** ****** ** ** ******, ********** ** ******** ********* pricing.

** *** *** ***, ********** *** **** *** ******* **** always ******* * ******* *********.

***** *** ****** ****** ******, ***** ****** ** * ********** of ****, **** *** ******** **** *** ***** ** ***** will ***** ** ******.

** *** **** *********, ** ******** ******* ** ************ ***** fraction ** *** ************ *****, ******** ********* ****** ****** **** relevant **** ***** ****, ***** **********, ** ***** ** *****.

*************, ***** **** *************, ** ***** **** ** ** ************* would **** ** ** ******* ** ******** ***** *** * while ** ***** ** *******.

John Honovich

IPVM | In reply to Horace Lasell | 06/23/16 12:47pm

*********** ********* *** **** ******* **** ** ****** ***** ********* can ******* ****** *****. *'* **** ** ******* **** ***-***** installers **** ****** ** ** ******, ********** ** ******** ********* pricing.

* ***** **** ****.

** *** ***** ****, ***** * *** ** *********** *** benefiting **** * ******* / ****** '********* ****' ***** ***. The *********** *** **** ** ********* ***** *** ******** ** matching ******* **** ********* / ************ *********** *** *** ******** with ****. *** ********** **** ** ** */* ** */* the ***** ***** ** **** ********** *** **** **** ***** in *** ***** ** *** ******. *******:** ** **** *** ** ** ***** ******* *********?

* ** ****** **** *********** **** ** **** ** **** / **** *********** ****** ** ********* / ***** ***., *** multiple ********* ******* *********** ******* **** ** **** *** ***** deals, ******* ***** ****** **** *****.

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