thanks John for a succinct bullet-pointy list of trends! No one ever sees to make it short and actually predict anything.
I agree that eventually VSAAS will overtake on-premise. However with my first startup in 1998 when we built storage as a service (the original SaaS) and we predicted everyone would move to a cloud like remote datacenter in the next 5 years. So after 22 years we are soooo close to doing that! so close....
some add-on points/possibilities:
1. AI - most likely fundamentally replaces monitoring guard stations and even remote monitoring. so far fewer low paid video watchers, few higher paid event tree deciders.
2. VSaaS - very likely a monumental increase in outsourcing installation to an on-call, gig-level 1099 install freelancers. employees are the enemy of cloud business model. lower pay overall? More flexibility?
3. AI in cameras - everything has a cost. if hikvision and dahua werent WAY cheaper they wouldnt dominate the market as strongly. adding cost to cameras for the vast majority of installations a hard pill to swallow. Agreed it will be in 100% of all high end cameras and majority of mid-range cameras. Is that enough to mean analytics or VMD are no longer done at the server level? Across an entire installation?
4. TAA/NDAA (secure supply chain) - while currently misunderstood and randomly used, there seems to be some likely movement towards much stricter enforcement of both and making them increasingly mandatory for federal projects. And it would not surprise me if these same parameters started getting adopted by large state agencies as well. Secure and transparent supply chains are very likely to be in higher demand. That doesn't fit well with most manufacturers business models.
AI in cameras would take over use cases where having a single sensor doing the inference is sufficient. At this point in time, they are limited to real time inferences which is a good starting place.
As AI advances, more complex modeling and inferences would leverage a lot more sensors over longer periods of time and that would remain at the servers - server farms really. VMS vendors can either incorporate these into their SW, partner with startups to leverage their work or slowly get run over as AI takes over a lot of the traditional workflows.
On the chart for Decreasing Favorability, the Hikvision column for the Negative section seems to be misleading or flawed. In 2017 they have a rating of 47%, yet that bar is longer than the Neutral rating for Dahua that's listed as 55%. Then in 2019 it shows 50% but the bar gets shorter in comparison to the 2017 / 47% mark.
Perhaps I'm reading it incorrectly and honestly not a big deal either way. Just figured I'd point it out.
Mustafa, thanks for your first comment! What about IoT? It's a common buzzword but what do you see happening with IoT as it relates to video surveillance? IP cameras have been IoT devices for 15+ years so it is not clear how that is a new trend in video surveillance.
As for the organization formally known as SAST they could very well become a big thing in the next decade. It's not shipping yet but it should be very soon. Right now, it's not clear enough that it will gain acceptance to be included in major trends but if it takes off in the next year, we would then add it to this trends report.
I work for Cisco, focused on Meraki. Cisco does not sell direct, except to a handful of customers (like AT&T, I assume). Cisco is built primarily as a channel integrator organization. Meraki (before or after Cisco acquisition in 2012) does not sell direct, assertion that was incorrectly made twice here.
However, in this course it has been well noted that sometimes manufacturers do reach out to end-customers, which is different than selling direct. I'd say Cisco recognizes the necessity of the integrators' value in the chain. OTOH, it has always decided to, where it makes sense, try to be present in the form of sales reps with potential customers.
Mauricio, thanks for calling that out. We have removed those references, e.g.:
a few well-funded providers (Meraki and Verkada) are focused on selling directly to end-users.
Has been replaced with:
as VSaaS providers can more easily sell and support customers with reduced integrator involvement.
This is more of our point, even for manufacturers using the channel, how they use the channel can fundamentally change as the manufacturer is less dependent on the integrator's involvement, which can be good for both the end user and the manufacturer, but less so for the intermediary, in this case, the integrator.
I think the manufacturers and the channel alike, especially in the technology sector, are always in this perpetual re-invention game. It has been mentioned in this course (how Pelco "missed" the IP transition and fell into oblivion almost, how some channels did not survive the transition).
I'm in sales engineering, never been in product management, but I guess the manufacturer has to think its products around the end user necessity, first. Not sure product management guys would design around the channel, but manufacturers should be well aware that the channel has to understand, sell and support those products, and maybe give ways to build on top of them (I'd say Meraki.io has a thriving marketplace). BUT, yes, I guess some of these transitions (like cloud) may upend some channel practices and ruffle feathers. Some areas of the lifecycle may lessen the channel involvement, while others may deepen the need for their expertise, or plainly open new avenues of services.
Great write up team. One that I would add is the evolution of integrations to more enterprise systems, moving video out of a purely cost-center position and into more revenue-centered applications. This is still early, but most organizations are realizing that video is their largest data source and is largely untapped in terms of its use across the organization. I am personally very excited to see how this evolves.
moving video out of a purely cost-center position and into more revenue-centered applications
Brian, thanks! For sure, that area is one people have claimed, and for quite some time. For example, a decade ago (maybe more), a new 3VR marketing head talked to me. This person had only been there a few months and confidently declared that her research said that business / operational optimization was the next big thing in video analytics. I was taken aback because that was not happening and this person had minimal insight into the market.
The 2020s could be different. What I don't understand is where and how this is going to happen? Retail was the market where this was supposed to really take off and retail (physical) is on life support right now. I am curious to hear people's thoughts here.
Great report. Small thing to point out though. Although Hikvision and Dahua are suffering in North America, Europe and Australia, they are doing exceedingly well in other overseas regions such as many parts of Asia, Latin America and Africa. Africa and Asia (particularly India and SouthEast Asia) have some of the highest growth rates in the world right now, and this may compensate somewhat for the effect of the ban in Western markets.
Africa and Asia (particularly India and SouthEast Asia) have some of the highest growth rates in the world right now
Abdelhamid, this may be true but where do you get those growth rates? Do you mean growth rates specifically for Hikvision? I ask because Hikvision's financials do not break this down so it's hard to verify.
To be clear, I can imagine Hikvision doing better in the UAE than in the USA but I am curious if you have some data source.