ADT and Brinks Home Security have both been struggling over the last year. ADT valuation is 50%+ less than their IPO target. Brinks Home Security, aka ASCMA, aka Moni, aka Monitronics, faces an investor lawsuit, and a debt crisis.
Their problem can be the entire industry problems as they are 2 of the 3 largest US alarm companies, as this SDM ranking shows:
Are the various struggles of ADT and Brinks Home Security weighing the rest of the industry down? Just as a rising tide floats all boats, do two sinking ships pull others under?
Inside this report, we examine these questions based on conversations with John Brady [link no longer available] of TRG Associates, Peter Giacalone [link no longer available] of Giacalone Associates and one industry expert who choose to be anonymous looking at 3 potential theories of what is happening:
- Primarily an ADT- and Brinks- specific problem, not reflecting the broader industry
- Generally, an industry phenomenon driven by Amazon, Google, and others that brings evolution and opportunity for all
- The changes may be leading to the death of the traditional just-security for $30-$50/month model