ADT Stock Drops 50% Since IPO

Author: John Honovich, Published on May 17, 2018

It has been a brutal 4 months for ADT.

They first expected to IPO at ~$18.

They IPOed at $14, dropping immediately to $12.39

And now, not even 4 months later, the stock is at just $7 per share. Big picture, they went from an expected market value of $14 billion down to just ~$5.4 billion now.

Vote / Poll

Is this a great buying opportunity or the beginning of the end for ADT?

RMR Impact Bad

Alarm monitoring companies like ADT have historically revealed in their financial power and sky-high valuations. No more for ADT.

In 2016, the industry cheered the deal:

** *** **** * ****** * ****** *** ***.

**** ***** ******** ** *** ** ~$**.

**** ***** ** $**, ******** *********** ** $**.**

*** ***, *** **** * ****** *****, *** ***** ** at **** $* *** *****. *** *******, **** **** **** an ******** ****** ***** ** $** ******* **** ** **** ~$5.4 ******* ***.

Vote / ****

** **** * ***** ****** *********** ** *** ********* ** the *** *** ***?

RMR ****** ***

***** ********** ********* **** *** **** ************ ******** ** ***** financial ***** *** ***-**** **********. ** **** *** ***.

** ****, *********** ******* *** ****:

[***************]

***** *** *********** ******, ****** ***** ** ***** *** **** its **** ******** ******* ********** * ** *deal ****** ** $** *******...

“****** *** **** **** **** ******* ** *** ***** ** be **** ** ***. ** *** *** $** *** ***** offerat ** ***** ***. Not bad for the industry’s largest player, particularly given ADT’s strong signs of improvement in most of their key performance indicators.” [Emphasis Added]

***, ***'* ********* *** **** **** $** ******* ** $*.* billion *** **** ** ***** *** ** ** ***** ***.

*** *******, **** ** *** **** ****** ********* ************ ******* their $*** ******* ***:

*** ** *****'* $*.* ******* *********, **** $*** ******* ** RMR ** ***** ****** ** **** **.* *****.

***, ** *** ****** ******, *** ************* ** *********, **** reduced *********, ******* ******* *** ********* ********:

******* ****, *** ***** ** ***** ********.

The *** ** *********** ***?

*** *******, **** *********, ** **** *** ** *********** **-********* deck ****** ** *** *******. **** *** ** ****** *** ship ** **** ** ******** *** ** ** ***** ****?

*******, ****** *** **** * ***** ****** ** *** ***** decline, ********* ********* ******* **** **** *** ******* *** ***** *** ******** ******. But **** ******** ******'* ******** ********, ** **, ** ** * ****-*********, ** ****** ****** to ***. ** *** ***** ****, ****** *** **** * track ****** ** **********, *** **** ****** ** ****** ****** after ** *********'* ******** *** ***** ********** ** ****.

***'* ******* *** ******* **** ****** **** *** ******** *** much **** ************* *** ***-*********** ** ***** **** ****** ** more **** ** ** ********** *** ***** *** ********** ******** and ******* ******** ** ******** (*.*., *****). *** ** **** end, *** *** ***************.

*** ****** ** ****** ******** ************ ** **** ** * signal **** *** *** ** *** ***** **** ** ******** RMR *** ****** ****.

Comments (24)

*** ** ******* ******** *** **** ******** ** **** ********. There *** **** **** * *** ***** ********* **** ****'* small *** ****'** *** ***** ** **** ******* **** **** to **** *** *** *****. * **** ** * *** small ***** ********* ******* ** ********* ** ******** * ****. Some ******* **,*** ******** *** **** ***** ****. ***** ********* stay *** ** *** **** *** ***** *** ***** *** their *** *******. *** **** ** **** *** ** **** getting *******.

********* *** ********* ***** **** ********* **** *** ***** *** they **** ** ** ******** ****.

"*** **** ** **** *** ** **** ******* *******" **** exactly ** *** **** ** ****?

*** **** ** ***** ******* ***** ** *** ***** ***** further. * ***'* ******* *** ***** ** ****** *** ** this **** * ***** * *** ** ********* ** *** lowside **** ******** ***** ******. * ******* *** ****** ** overstated * ***.

*** ** **** ************ ******* ** *********** *****. **** **** I ***'* **** ***** ** ******* *** ******** **** *** DIY *****. ***** ********** ** **** *** ****.

****** *** **** *** ** ** **** **** ** **** market **** **** ** *** **** **** ** ******* ***.

** ****** **** ********** ** ************ ******* *** ***** ********** at $**.** * *****.

*** **** ** **** ** ** *** *******, *** *** much ** **** ** ** *** *******?

*** *** * ******* *** ****** *****, **** * ********** for ******* * ****** ********** *******, ********* **** *******, *** using ******* ********* **** ****, ********* ********* **** ************* **** prices.

****'** *** ***.*% ********* ****. **.*%! ** * *** ** ***** ******* **** **** than * *% ****** ****, *'* **** ** *****, **** off *** ******, *** *** ** *-** ***** * ***** manager.

****'** *** ***.*% ********* ****. **.*%! ** * *** ** ***** ******* **** **** than * *% ****** ****, *'* **** ** *****, **** off *** ******, *** *** ** *-** ***** * ***** manager.

** ********, **** ** **** **** * **.*% ****...

* ** ******, ** **** *****, ** ********* ** ** inherently ****** / ****** ******* (****** * ***'* **** ****** about ***** ******** ********* ** **** * **** ***** ** this *********).

* *** ***** ******* ******** ********* ********* *** ********** ***** Making ****** **** **** ******, ***** ***** ** ********* **** the **** ** ***'* ****** ***** (***, ********* ** *** stories, ***** ****** ******** *********).

********* ** ********** * ****** / ****** ******* **** *** treat **** ********* **** ***** ***** ** ** ****** ** hard ** ******** *** ********* ** **** ** * *** leaves **** ****** ***.

** *** ***********, ******: ***, ********* ** ********* ****** ** that *****, *** ****** ***** ********* ** ***** ******* ************. Attrition **** **** ** ********** ** * **** ***** *******.

********** ****'* **** *** *** **** **** **** ****** ****** cabs ** ********* ****** ********* **. ********* ******'* **** ****** out ** *********** ** **** ****'* **** ******* ** **** business ********* **** *** ******-**-*** ********* *** **** ***** *****.

** ********* ** ******* ****** * ******* *** * ***'* do **** ****** **** *********.

*** ***** ***** ******* **** ****, ***** *** ***** ***** companies ****, ** ****** *******. *** ********* ******* ***'* **** to *** *** ******** ***** ****** *** *** **** ***** and **** ****** **** ******* ***** ****** ********.****** ********** ** NY *** **** ****** **** ****.

* ***** *** *** **** *** ** ***** **** ****** 2010. *** ** *** * **** **** ** ***** ****.

*** *********** *** ********** ******* **** *** **** ********* *** be ********** ****** ** ******** *** **********… ***, “***** ******** Revenue *********”. ****, ***** ********* ** ************ *** **** *********.

******: *** *****; ******* ******** *****

** ******** *** **********

*** *** ****** ** ****? **** ** ***'* *********** / justification:

* **** ************ ** **** ***** ******** *&* *** *********. After **** *******, “*********” ***** *** *** **** ************. **** buyer *** ****** ******. ** ******* *** ***** ** **** dispute ***** *** ******* ****. **** ********* ***-******** **********, ** like ** *** *** * **** ******count ** ******** ***** ** ********* ****, **** ******** ***** ******* ****** ********* ** ******. When that number in determined you can also get a more accurate attrition of revenue. Formulas based on “revenue attrition” can be manipulated to meet just about any number. It would be interesting to see the ADT attrition recast with above simple formula.

******: *** *****; ******* ******** *****

******** ** ******-**** *** ******** ***** ** * ********** ******** :-)

****, ****’* **** ***** ** *** **** ******* *** ******* sales ***** ** *** ***** **** *** ** *** ****** at **.* ***** ******* ***?

**** ** **** ****** ******** ** *** ***** *********?

** *** ** ** **** ***** **** *** ********* ** buying ********* *** ********. *** **** *** **** ** ** to ** ***** *** ****** ****

****** *****. ****’* **** ******* ** *** **** **** ****** dealer ******** **** ******, ********, ***, ***, ***?

**** *** **** **** ****** *** *** ****** *** **** these ******** ***** ******* **** *** **** ********** *** ****. The ********* ****** ***'* **** ** ******* ********* **** ******** even ****.

*** *** ****** ******* **** **** *** **** **** ** well. *** *** ** ************ **** ***** ********* *** *** dealers **** ***** ** ** **** ** **** *** **** no ******* ** *******.

*** *** * **** ********** **** *** * **** *** pretty ****, *** **** **** ***** ***** ****. * *** it ****'* *** **** ** ** ****** **** **** ***. If ** *** *** ** *** ***** ***** ** ** the *** *** *** ** **.

** *****, ** ** *** **** *** *** ** *** documents, ** ** **** *** ** *** ***. ******* ***** prominent *** ***** *** ** ***** ** *** **** ** ADT *****-****** **********, *** *** ***-**********.

**** ** *** *******, ***** *** ****** * ******* *** firms ** ******* **** ********** ** ***** ****** ********* ***'* stock ***** * ***. **** ** *** ********* *** ** one ** *****, ********* **** *** *** ** **** ** away.

* *** ** *** **** ******* *** **** ******** **** one ***** ** *** *****.

** ** ********* ******** ****** **** " ***** ** ** justice ***** ** **** ** "

**** *** ********** ***** ** **** *********. ***’* ***** ***** the ******** **** ********* ** *** “***** ******** ********”, **** of ***,… ****** ******** ** ***** ***** *** ****.******/*** ****** ** ******* ** *** ******** **** *** ******* in ****** ** **** ******/******* ***********. ******* ** ********** …. something ** ****? ***** *** **** ** ******* ** ********* and ********* **** ******** *********, **** ***, *** **** *********** with *** ***********, **********, *** **** ********* ******** ****** *** treated **** ******** ******, **** ** ** ********. **** ****** to ******* *** ********* ***********, ********* **,**,**, **** *** ******* banned ********** ***** **** ******* **** *****.. ******** ** *** ADT ********* **** ********* ********* ******* …. * ****** ** heavy *********. ***** ********* *** *** ******** ******* **** *** backstory, ***** ** *** *** ****** **** ***** **%, ** single ******, ***** *** *** (******** ** $*). ****: ***********/**** has ***** **** $** ******* ***** *** ** $*.** **** week. ******: *** *****; ******* ******** *****; ******@***.***

**** ** * **** **** *** ***:***: *****'* **** ***, ***** ****** **** * *** ***** *****, ************ ** reducing ***** *** ** ********* ********** ******** ***** *** ** a **** ***** *** ** **** ****.

****... **** *** "********" ****** ** **** *******... * ****** "bear" **** *** ***… *** *** ***** *** ****** ** $7.

*** **-*** *** ********** "*****'* **** ***" *******.

*** ***, **** **** ********** *** ****** "*****'* **** ***", that's *** ****.

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