ADT Stock Drops 50% Since IPO

By: John Honovich, Published on May 17, 2018

It has been a brutal 4 months for ADT.

They first expected to IPO at ~$18.

They IPOed at $14, dropping immediately to $12.39

And now, not even 4 months later, the stock is at just $7 per share. Big picture, they went from an expected market value of $14 billion down to just ~$5.4 billion now.

Vote / Poll

Is this a great buying opportunity or the beginning of the end for ADT?

RMR Impact Bad

Alarm monitoring companies like ADT have historically revealed in their financial power and sky-high valuations. No more for ADT. 

In 2016, the industry cheered the deal:

** *** **** * brutal * ****** *** ADT.

**** ***** ******** ** IPO ** ~$**.

**** ***** ** $**, dropping *********** ** $**.**

*** ***, *** **** 4 ****** *****, *** stock ** ** **** $7 *** *****. *** picture, **** **** **** an ******** ****** ***** of $** ******* **** to **** ~$*.* ******* now.

Vote / ****

** **** * ***** buying *********** ** *** beginning ** *** *** for ***?

RMR ****** ***

***** ********** ********* **** ADT **** ************ ******** in ***** ********* ***** and ***-**** **********. ** more *** ***. 

** ****, *********** ******* *** ****:

[***************]

***** *** *********** ******, Apollo ***** ** ***** ADT **** *** **** security ******* ********** * in *deal ****** ** $** *******...

“****** *** **** **** with ******* ** *** value ** ** **** to ***. ** *** the $** *** ***** offerat ** ***** ***. Not bad for the industry’s largest player, particularly given ADT’s strong signs of improvement in most of their key performance indicators.” [Emphasis Added]

***, ***'* ********* *** gone **** $** ******* to $*.* ******* *** from ** ***** *** to ** ***** ***.

*** *******, **** ** ADT **** ****** ********* presentation ******* ***** $*** million ***:

*** ** *****'* $*.* billion *********, **** $*** ******* of *** ** ***** valued ** **** **.* times.

***, ** *** ****** argued, *** ************* ** improving, **** ******* *********, shorter ******* *** ********* earnings:

******* ****, *** ***** is ***** ********.

The *** ** *********** ***?

*** *******, **** *********, is **** *** ** essentially **-********* **** ****** on *** *******. **** may ** ****** *** ship ** **** ** possible *** ** ** going ****?

*******, ****** *** **** a ***** ****** ** the ***** *******, ********* ********* ******* **** **** *** rolling *** ***** *** security ******. *** **** ******** ******'* ******** offering, ** **, ** is * ****-*********, ** direct ****** ** ***. On *** ***** ****, Amazon *** **** * track ****** ** **********, the **** ****** ** Amazon ****** ***** ** incumbent's ******** *** ***** valuations ** ****.

***'* ******* *** ******* been ****** **** *** entrants *** **** **** complimentary *** ***-*********** ** their **** ****** ** more **** ** ** homeowners *** ***** *** monitoring ******** *** ******* services ** ******** (*.*., Pulse). *** ** **** end, *** *** ***************. 

*** ****** ** ****** severely ************ ** **** is * ****** **** the *** ** *** glory **** ** ******** RMR *** ****** ****.

Comments (24)

*** ** ******* ******** *** will ******** ** **** downhill. ***** *** **** than * *** ***** companies **** ****'* ***** but ****'** *** ***** to **** ******* **** want ** **** *** the *****. * **** of * *** ***** alarm ********* ******* ** thousands ** ******** * year. **** ******* **,*** accounts *** **** ***** year. ***** ********* **** out ** *** **** and ***** *** ***** for ***** *** *******. The **** ** **** RMR ** **** ******* started. 

********* *** ********* ***** huge ********* **** *** ***** who **** **** ** do ******** ****.

"*** **** ** **** RMR ** **** ******* started"  **** ******* ** you **** ** ****?  

*** **** ** ***** private ***** ** *** stock ***** *******. * can't ******* *** ***** of ****** *** ** this **** * ***** a *** ** ********* to *** ******* **** concerns ***** ******. * suspect *** ****** ** overstated * ***.

*** ** **** ************ cameras ** *********** *****. Good **** * ***'* even ***** ** ******* the ******** **** *** DIY *****. ***** ********** is **** *** ****. 

****** *** **** *** to ** **** **** or **** ****** **** turn ** *** **** than ** ******* ***. 

** ****** **** ********** by ************ ******* *** being ********** ** $**.** a *****. 

*** **** ** **** is ** *** *******, and *** **** ** this ** ** *** problem?

*** *** * ******* bad ****** *****, **** a ********** *** ******* a ****** ********** *******, providing **** *******, *** using ******* ********* **** long, ********* ********* **** unjustifiably **** ******. 

****'** *** ***.*% ********* ****. **.*%! ** * ran ** ***** ******* with **** **** * 6% ****** ****, *'* lock ** *****, **** off *** ******, *** see ** *-** ***** a ***** *******. 

****'** *** * **.*% ********* ****. **.*%! ** * ran ** ***** ******* with **** **** * 6% ****** ****, *'* lock ** *****, **** off *** ******, *** see ** *-** ***** a ***** *******.

** ********, **** ** down **** * **.*% rate...

* ** ******, ** that *****, ** ********* is ** ********** ****** / ****** ******* (****** I ***'* **** ****** about ***** ******** ********* to **** * **** sense ** **** *********).

* *** ***** ******* designer ********* ********* *** Misleading ***** ****** ****** with **** ******, ***** lines ** ********* **** the **** ** ***'* public ***** (***, ********* to *** *******, ***** actual ******** *********). 

********* ** ********** * larger / ****** ******* when *** ***** **** customers **** ***** ***** to ** ****** ** hard ** ******** *** abandoned ** **** ** a *** ****** **** fallen ***. 

** *** ***********, ******: yes, ********* ** ********* harder ** **** *****, but ****** ***** ********* is ***** ******* ************. Attrition **** **** ** indicative ** * **** alarm *******. 

********** ****'* **** *** any **** **** **** killed ****** **** ** streaming ****** ********* **. Customers ******'* **** ****** out ** *********** ** they ****'* **** ******* to **** ******** ********* from *** ******-**-*** ********* for **** ***** *****. 

** ********* ** ******* around * ******* *** I ***'* ** **** market **** *********.

*** ***** ***** ******* they ****, ***** *** older ***** ********* ****, is ****** *******. *** customers ******* ***'* **** to *** *** ******** after ****** *** *** plus ***** *** **** cancel **** ******* ***** having ********.****** ********** ** NY *** **** ****** with ****. 

* ***** *** *** sold *** ** ***** back ****** ****. *** it *** * **** mess ** ***** ****. 

*** *********** *** ********** learned **** *** **** attrition *** ** ********** simply ** ******** *** definition… ***, “***** ******** Revenue *********”.   ****, ***** attrition ** ************ *** **** increases.

******: *** *****; ******* Services *****

** ******** *** **********

*** *** ****** ** that? **** ** ***'* explanation / *************:

* **** ************ ** much ***** ******** *&* due *********. ***** **** decades, “*********” ***** *** not **** ************. **** buyer *** ****** ******. It ******* *** ***** of **** ******* ***** the ******* ****. **** comparing ***-******** **********, ** like ** *** *** a **** ******count ** ******** ***** ** ********* ****, **** ******** ***** ******* ****** ********* ** ******.   When that number in determined you can also get a more accurate attrition of revenue. Formulas based on “revenue attrition” can be manipulated to meet just about any number. It would be interesting to see the ADT attrition recast with above simple formula.

******: *** *****; ******* Services *****

******** ** ******-**** *** accounts ***** ** * profitable ******** :-)

****, ****’* **** ***** of *** **** ******* the ******* ***** ***** on *** ***** **** ADT ** *** ****** at **.* ***** ******* RMR?  

**** ** **** ****** leverage ** *** ***** multiples?

** *** ** ** will ***** **** *** multiples ** ****** ********* and ********. *** **** ole **** ** ** to ** ***** *** almost **** 

****** *****.  ****’* **** opinion ** *** **** will ****** ****** ******** like ******, ********, ***, ACA, ***?

**** *** **** **** around *** *** ****** who **** ***** ******** start ******* **** *** high ********** *** ****.  The ********* ****** ***'* work ** ******* ********* will ******** **** ****. 

*** *** ****** ******* help **** *** **** hurt ** ****. *** has ** ************ **** those ********* *** *** dealers **** ***** ** as **** ** **** can **** ** ******* to *******. 

*** *** * **** management **** *** * know *** ****** ****, but **** **** ***** hands ****. * *** it ****'* *** **** to ** ****** **** they ***. ** ** can *** ** *** right ***** ** ** the *** *** *** do **. 

** *****, ** ** not **** *** *** in *** *********, ** is **** *** ** not ***. ******* ***** prominent *** ***** *** be ***** ** *** list ** *** *****-****** litigation, *** *** ***-**********.

**** ** *** *******, there *** ****** * hundred *** ***** ** America **** ********** ** suing ****** ********* ***'* stock ***** * ***. Been ** *** ********* end ** *** ** these, ********* **** *** and ** **** ** away. 

* *** ** *** look ******* *** **** plantiff **** *** ***** of *** *****. 

** ** ********* ******** always **** " ***** is ** ******* ***** is **** ** "

**** *** ********** ***** be **** *********. ***’* think ***** *** ******** core ********* ** *** “alarm ******** ********”, **** of ***,… ****** ******** ** their ***** *** ****.******/*** ****** ** ******* in *** ******** **** the ******* ** ****** of **** ******/******* ***********. Silence ** ********** …. something ** ****? ***** too **** ** ******* to ********* *** ********* that ******** *********, **** ADT, *** **** *********** with *** ***********, **********, and **** ********* ******** alarms *** ******* **** nuisance ******, **** ** no ********. **** ****** to ******* *** ********* ***********, including **,**,**, **** *** already ****** ********** ***** from ******* **** *****.. Majority ** *** *** customers **** ********* ********* systems …. * ****** of ***** *********. ***** Investors *** *** ******** already **** *** *********, which ** *** *** shares **** ***** **%, to ****** ******, ***** the *** (******** ** $7). ****: ***********/**** *** slide **** $** ******* years *** ** $*.** this ****.  ******: *** Jones; ******* ******** *****; LeeSSG@att.net

**** ** * **** case *** ***:***: *****'* **** ***, ***** ****** **** a *** ***** *****, improvements ** ******** ***** and ** ********* ********** business ***** *** ** a **** ***** *** at **** ****.

****... **** *** "********" ****** to **** *******...  * strong "bear" **** *** ***…  not *** ***** *** bottom ** $*.

*** **-*** *** ********** "There's **** ***" *******.

*** ***, **** **** proponents *** ****** "*****'* hope ***", ****'* *** good.

 

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