ADT Stock Drops 50% Since IPO

Published May 17, 2018 13:22 PM

It has been a brutal 4 months for ADT.

They first expected to IPO at ~$18.

They IPOed at $14, dropping immediately to $12.39

And now, not even 4 months later, the stock is at just $7 per share. Big picture, they went from an expected market value of $14 billion down to just ~$5.4 billion now.

Vote / Poll

Is this a great buying opportunity or the beginning of the end for ADT?

RMR Impact Bad

Alarm monitoring companies like ADT have historically revealed in their financial power and sky-high valuations. No more for ADT. 

In 2016, the industry cheered the deal:

***** *** *********** ******, ****** ***** to ***** *** **** *** **** security ******* ********** * ** *deal ****** ** $** *******...

“****** *** **** **** **** ******* to *** ***** ** ** **** to ***. ** *** *** $** per ***** *****at ** ***** ***. Not bad for the industry’s largest player, particularly given ADT’s strong signs of improvement in most of their key performance indicators.” [Emphasis Added]

***, ***'* ********* *** **** **** $15 ******* ** $*.* ******* *** from ** ***** *** ** ** times ***.

*** *******, **** ** *** **** recent ********* ************ ******* ***** $*** million ***:

*** ** *****'* $*.* ******* *********, **** $331 ******* ** *** ** ***** valued ** **** **.* *****.

***, ** *** ****** ******, *** operationally ** *********, **** ******* *********, shorter ******* *** ********* ********:

******* ****, *** ***** ** ***** pummeled.

The *** ** *********** ***?

*** *******, **** *********, ** **** ADT ** *********** **-********* **** ****** on *** *******. **** *** ** making *** **** ** **** ** possible *** ** ** ***** ****?

*******, ****** *** **** * ***** factor ** *** ***** *******, ********* ********* ******* **** **** *** ******* *** their *** ******** ******. *** **** ******** ******'* ******** ********, ** **, ** ** * self-monitored, ** ****** ****** ** ***. On *** ***** ****, ****** *** such * ***** ****** ** **********, the **** ****** ** ****** ****** after ** *********'* ******** *** ***** valuations ** ****.

***'* ******* *** ******* **** ****** that *** ******** *** **** **** complimentary *** ***-*********** ** ***** **** market ** **** **** ** ** homeowners *** ***** *** ********** ******** and ******* ******** ** ******** (*.*., Pulse). *** ** **** ***, *** has ***************. 

*** ****** ** ****** ******** ************ or **** ** * ****** **** the *** ** *** ***** **** of ******** *** *** ****** ****.

Comments (24)
UI
Undisclosed Integrator #1
May 17, 2018

*** ** ******* ******** *** **** ******** to **** ********. ***** *** **** than * *** ***** ********* **** aren't ***** *** ****'** *** ***** to **** ******* **** **** ** stay *** *** *****. * **** of * *** ***** ***** ********* putting ** ********* ** ******** * year. **** ******* **,*** ******** *** more ***** ****. ***** ********* **** out ** *** **** *** ***** the ***** *** ***** *** *******. The **** ** **** *** ** just ******* *******. 

********* *** ********* ***** **** ********* like *** ***** *** **** **** ** do ******** ****.

(2)
(1)
UM
Undisclosed Manufacturer #2
May 17, 2018

"*** **** ** **** *** ** just ******* *******"  **** ******* ** you **** ** ****?  

(4)
Avatar
Art Stout
May 17, 2018

*** **** ** ***** ******* ***** if *** ***** ***** *******. * can't ******* *** ***** ** ****** but ** **** **** * ***** a *** ** ********* ** *** lowside **** ******** ***** ******. * suspect *** ****** ** ********** * bit.

(1)
(1)
LT
Larry Tracy
May 18, 2018

*** ** **** ************ ******* ** residential *****. **** **** * ***'* even ***** ** ******* *** ******** will *** *** *****. ***** ********** is **** *** ****. 

****** *** **** *** ** ** much **** ** **** ****** **** turn ** *** **** **** ** already ***. 

** ****** **** ********** ** ************ dealers *** ***** ********** ** $**.** a *****. 

(1)
(2)
UM
Undisclosed Manufacturer #3
May 18, 2018

*** **** ** **** ** ** RMR *******, *** *** **** ** this ** ** *** *******?

*** *** * ******* *** ****** image, **** * ********** *** ******* a ****** ********** *******, ********* **** service, *** ***** ******* ********* **** long, ********* ********* **** ************* **** prices. 

****'** *** ***.*% ********* ****. **.*%! ** * *** ** alarm ******* **** **** **** * 6% ****** ****, *'* **** ** doors, **** *** *** ******, *** see ** *-** ***** * ***** manager. 

(3)
JH
John Honovich
May 18, 2018
IPVM

****'** *** * **.*% ********* ****. **.*%! ** * *** ** alarm ******* **** **** **** * 6% ****** ****, *'* **** ** doors, **** *** *** ******, *** see ** *-** ***** * ***** manager.

** ********, **** ** **** **** a **.*% ****...

* ** ******, ** **** *****, if ********* ** ** ********** ****** / ****** ******* (****** * ***'* know ****** ***** ***** ******** ********* to **** * **** ***** ** this *********).

UM
Undisclosed Manufacturer #3
May 18, 2018

* *** ***** ******* ******** ********* Dishonest *** ********** ***** ****** ****** with **** ******, ***** ***** ** precisely **** *** **** ** ***'* public ***** (***, ********* ** *** stories, ***** ****** ******** *********). 

********* ** ********** * ****** / harder ******* **** *** ***** **** customers **** ***** ***** ** ** shaken ** **** ** ******** *** abandoned ** **** ** * *** leaves **** ****** ***. 

** *** ***********, ******: ***, ********* is ********* ****** ** **** *****, but ****** ***** ********* ** ***** utterly ************. ********* **** **** ** indicative ** * **** ***** *******. 

********** ****'* **** *** *** **** than **** ****** ****** **** ** streaming ****** ********* **. ********* ******'* have ****** *** ** *********** ** they ****'* **** ******* ** **** business ********* **** *** ******-**-*** ********* for **** ***** *****. 

(1)
(1)
(1)
LT
Larry Tracy
May 18, 2018

** ********* ** ******* ****** * percent *** * ***'* ** **** market **** *********.

*** ***** ***** ******* **** ****, which *** ***** ***** ********* ****, is ****** *******. *** ********* ******* don't **** ** *** *** ******** after ****** *** *** **** ***** and **** ****** **** ******* ***** having ********.****** ********** ** ** *** huge ****** **** ****. 

* ***** *** *** **** *** 15 ***** **** ****** ****. *** it *** * **** **** ** those ****. 

LJ
Lee Jones
May 18, 2018
Support Services Group

*** *********** *** ********** ******* **** ago **** ********* *** ** ********** simply ** ******** *** **********… ***, “Gross ******** ******* *********”.   ****, ***** attrition ** ************ *** **** *********.

******: *** *****; ******* ******** *****

JH
John Honovich
May 18, 2018
IPVM

** ******** *** **********

*** *** ****** ** ****? **** is ***'* *********** / *************:

LJ
Lee Jones
May 18, 2018
Support Services Group

* **** ************ ** **** ***** industry *&* *** *********. ***** **** decades, “*********” ***** *** *** **** standardized. **** ***** *** ****** ******. It ******* *** ***** ** **** dispute ***** *** ******* ****. **** comparing ***-******** **********, ** **** ** ask *** * **** ******count ** ******** ***** ** ********* ****, **** ******** ***** ******* ****** ********* ** ******.   When that number in determined you can also get a more accurate attrition of revenue. Formulas based on “revenue attrition” can be manipulated to meet just about any number. It would be interesting to see the ADT attrition recast with above simple formula.

******: *** *****; ******* ******** *****

(2)
(1)
UM
Undisclosed Manufacturer #2
May 18, 2018

******** ** ******-**** *** ******** ***** be * ********** ******** :-)

Avatar
David Morgan
May 20, 2018
Security Dealer Marketing

****, ****’* **** ***** ** *** this ******* *** ******* ***** ***** on *** ***** **** *** ** now ****** ** **.* ***** ******* RMR?  

**** ** **** ****** ******** ** pay ***** *********?

LT
Larry Tracy
May 20, 2018

** *** ** ** **** ***** down *** ********* ** ****** ********* and ********. *** **** *** **** of ** ** ** ***** *** almost **** 

(1)
Avatar
David Morgan
May 20, 2018
Security Dealer Marketing

****** *****.  ****’* **** ******* ** how **** **** ****** ****** ******** like ******, ********, ***, ***, ***?

LT
Larry Tracy
May 20, 2018

**** *** **** **** ****** *** the ****** *** **** ***** ******** start ******* **** *** **** ********** are ****.  *** ********* ****** ***'* work ** ******* ********* **** ******** even ****. 

*** *** ****** ******* **** **** and **** **** ** ****. *** has ** ************ **** ***** ********* and *** ******* **** ***** ** as **** ** **** *** **** no ******* ** *******. 

*** *** * **** ********** **** and * **** *** ****** ****, but **** **** ***** ***** ****. I *** ** ****'* *** **** to ** ****** **** **** ***. If ** *** *** ** *** right ***** ** ** *** *** who *** ** **. 

(1)
(1)
U
Undisclosed #5
May 21, 2018

** *****, ** ** *** **** you *** ** *** *********, ** is **** *** ** *** ***. Several ***** ********* *** ***** *** be ***** ** *** **** ** ADT *****-****** **********, *** *** ***-**********.

(1)
LT
Larry Tracy
May 22, 2018

**** ** *** *******, ***** *** around * ******* *** ***** ** America **** ********** ** ***** ****** companies ***'* ***** ***** * ***. Been ** *** ********* *** ** one ** *****, ********* **** *** and ** **** ** ****. 

* *** ** *** **** ******* the **** ******** **** *** ***** of *** *****. 

** ** ********* ******** ****** **** " ***** ** ** ******* ***** is **** ** "

(1)
LJ
Lee Jones
May 22, 2018
Support Services Group

**** *** ********** ***** ** **** threating. ***’* ***** ***** *** ******** core ********* ** *** “***** ******** industry”, **** ** ***,… ****** ******** ** ***** ***** for ****.******/*** ****** ** ******* ** *** offering **** *** ******* ** ****** of **** ******/******* ***********. ******* ** suggestive …. ********* ** ****? ***** too **** ** ******* ** ********* and ********* **** ******** *********, **** ADT, *** **** *********** **** *** enforcement, **********, *** **** ********* ******** alarms *** ******* **** ******** ******, slow ** ** ********. **** ****** to ******* *** ********* ***********, ********* **,**,**, that *** ******* ****** ********** ***** from ******* **** *****.. ******** ** the *** ********* **** ********* ********* systems …. * ****** ** ***** attrition. ***** ********* *** *** ******** already **** *** *********, ***** ** why *** ****** **** ***** **%, to ****** ******, ***** *** *** (bottomed ** $*). ****: ***********/**** *** slide **** $** ******* ***** *** to $*.** **** ****.  ******: *** Jones; ******* ******** *****; ******@***.***

JH
John Honovich
May 30, 2018
IPVM

**** ** * **** **** *** ADT:***: *****'* **** ***, ***** ****** **** * *** stock *****, ************ ** ******** ***** and ** ********* ********** ******** ***** ADT ** * **** ***** *** at **** ****.

LJ
Lee Jones
May 30, 2018
Support Services Group

****... **** *** "********" ****** ** **** article...  * ****** "****" **** *** ***…  not *** ***** *** ****** ** $7.

JH
John Honovich
Jun 04, 2018
IPVM

*** **-*** *** ********** "*****'* **** Yet" *******.

*** ***, **** **** ********** *** saying "*****'* **** ***", ****'* *** good.

(1)
UM
Undisclosed Manufacturer #3
Jun 04, 2018

 

(2)