ADT Stock Drops 50% Since IPO

By: John Honovich, Published on May 17, 2018

It has been a brutal 4 months for ADT.

They first expected to IPO at ~$18.

They IPOed at $14, dropping immediately to $12.39

And now, not even 4 months later, the stock is at just $7 per share. Big picture, they went from an expected market value of $14 billion down to just ~$5.4 billion now.

Vote / Poll

Is this a great buying opportunity or the beginning of the end for ADT?

RMR Impact Bad

Alarm monitoring companies like ADT have historically revealed in their financial power and sky-high valuations. No more for ADT.

In 2016, the industry cheered the deal:

** *** **** * brutal * ****** *** ADT.

**** ***** ******** ** IPO ** ~$**.

**** ***** ** $**, dropping *********** ** $**.**

*** ***, *** **** 4 ****** *****, *** stock ** ** **** $7 *** *****. *** picture, **** **** **** an ******** ****** ***** of $** ******* **** to **** ~$*.* ******* now.

Vote / ****

** **** * ***** buying *********** ** *** beginning ** *** *** for ***?

RMR ****** ***

***** ********** ********* **** ADT **** ************ ******** in ***** ********* ***** and ***-**** **********. ** more *** ***.

** ****, *********** ******* *** ****:

[***************]

***** *** *********** ******, Apollo ***** ** ***** ADT **** *** **** security ******* ********** * in *deal ****** ** $** *******...
“****** *** **** **** with ******* ** *** value ** ** **** to ***. ** *** the $** *** ***** offerat ** ***** ***. Not bad for the industry’s largest player, particularly given ADT’s strong signs of improvement in most of their key performance indicators.” [Emphasis Added]

***, ***'* ********* *** gone **** $** ******* to $*.* ******* *** from ** ***** *** to ** ***** ***.

*** *******, **** ** ADT **** ****** ********* presentation ******* ***** $*** million ***:

*** ** *****'* $*.* billion *********, **** $*** ******* of *** ** ***** valued ** **** **.* times.

***, ** *** ****** argued, *** ************* ** improving, **** ******* *********, shorter ******* *** ********* earnings:

******* ****, *** ***** is ***** ********.

The *** ** *********** ***?

*** *******, **** *********, is **** *** ** essentially **-********* **** ****** on *** *******. **** may ** ****** *** ship ** **** ** possible *** ** ** going ****?

*******, ****** *** **** a ***** ****** ** the ***** *******, ********* ********* ******* **** **** *** rolling *** ***** *** security ******. *** **** ******** ******'* ******** offering, ** **, ** is * ****-*********, ** direct ****** ** ***. On *** ***** ****, Amazon *** **** * track ****** ** **********, the **** ****** ** Amazon ****** ***** ** incumbent's ******** *** ***** valuations ** ****.

***'* ******* *** ******* been ****** **** *** entrants *** **** **** complimentary *** ***-*********** ** their **** ****** ** more **** ** ** homeowners *** ***** *** monitoring ******** *** ******* services ** ******** (*.*., Pulse). *** ** **** end, *** *** ***************.

*** ****** ** ****** severely ************ ** **** is * ****** **** the *** ** *** glory **** ** ******** RMR *** ****** ****.

Comments (24)

Undisclosed Integrator #1

05/17/18 01:29pm

*** ** ******* ******** *** will ******** ** **** downhill. ***** *** **** than * *** ***** companies **** ****'* ***** but ****'** *** ***** to **** ******* **** want ** **** *** the *****. * **** of * *** ***** alarm ********* ******* ** thousands ** ******** * year. **** ******* **,*** accounts *** **** ***** year. ***** ********* **** out ** *** **** and ***** *** ***** for ***** *** *******. The **** ** **** RMR ** **** ******* started.

********* *** ********* ***** huge ********* **** *** ***** who **** **** ** do ******** ****.

Undisclosed Manufacturer #2

05/17/18 01:50pm

"*** **** ** **** RMR ** **** ******* started" **** ******* ** you **** ** ****?

Art Stout

05/17/18 03:08pm

*** **** ** ***** private ***** ** *** stock ***** *******. * can't ******* *** ***** of ****** *** ** this **** * ***** a *** ** ********* to *** ******* **** concerns ***** ******. * suspect *** ****** ** overstated * ***.

Larry Tracy

05/18/18 02:32am

*** ** **** ************ cameras ** *********** *****. Good **** * ***'* even ***** ** ******* the ******** **** *** DIY *****. ***** ********** is **** *** ****.

****** *** **** *** to ** **** **** or **** ****** **** turn ** *** **** than ** ******* ***.

** ****** **** ********** by ************ ******* *** being ********** ** $**.** a *****.

Undisclosed Distributor #3

05/18/18 01:08pm

*** **** ** **** is ** *** *******, and *** **** ** this ** ** *** problem?

*** *** * ******* bad ****** *****, **** a ********** *** ******* a ****** ********** *******, providing **** *******, *** using ******* ********* **** long, ********* ********* **** unjustifiably **** ******.

****'** *** ***.*% ********* ****. **.*%! ** * ran ** ***** ******* with **** **** * 6% ****** ****, *'* lock ** *****, **** off *** ******, *** see ** *-** ***** a ***** *******.

John Honovich

IPVM | In reply to Undisclosed Distributor #3 | 05/18/18 01:13pm

****'** *** * **.*% ********* ****. **.*%! ** * ran ** ***** ******* with **** **** * 6% ****** ****, *'* lock ** *****, **** off *** ******, *** see ** *-** ***** a ***** *******.

** ********, **** ** down **** * **.*% rate...

* ** ******, ** that *****, ** ********* is ** ********** ****** / ****** ******* (****** I ***'* **** ****** about ***** ******** ********* to **** * **** sense ** **** *********).

Undisclosed Distributor #3

In reply to John Honovich | 05/18/18 01:30pm

* *** ***** ******* designer ********* ********* *** Misleading ***** ****** ****** with **** ******, ***** lines ** ********* **** the **** ** ***'* public ***** (***, ********* to *** *******, ***** actual ******** *********).

********* ** ********** * larger / ****** ******* when *** ***** **** customers **** ***** ***** to ** ****** ** hard ** ******** *** abandoned ** **** ** a *** ****** **** fallen ***.

** *** ***********, ******: yes, ********* ** ********* harder ** **** *****, but ****** ***** ********* is ***** ******* ************. Attrition **** **** ** indicative ** * **** alarm *******.

********** ****'* **** *** any **** **** **** killed ****** **** ** streaming ****** ********* **. Customers ******'* **** ****** out ** *********** ** they ****'* **** ******* to **** ******** ********* from *** ******-**-*** ********* for **** ***** *****.

Larry Tracy

In reply to John Honovich | 05/18/18 03:27pm

** ********* ** ******* around * ******* *** I ***'* ** **** market **** *********.

*** ***** ***** ******* they ****, ***** *** older ***** ********* ****, is ****** *******. *** customers ******* ***'* **** to *** *** ******** after ****** *** *** plus ***** *** **** cancel **** ******* ***** having ********.****** ********** ** NY *** **** ****** with ****.

* ***** *** *** sold *** ** ***** back ****** ****. *** it *** * **** mess ** ***** ****.

Lee Jones

Support Services Group | In reply to John Honovich | 05/18/18 04:36pm

*** *********** *** ********** learned **** *** **** attrition *** ** ********** simply ** ******** *** definition… ***, “***** ******** Revenue *********”. ****, ***** attrition ** ************ *** **** increases.

******: *** *****; ******* Services *****

John Honovich

IPVM | In reply to Lee Jones | 05/18/18 07:11pm

** ******** *** **********

*** *** ****** ** that? **** ** ***'* explanation / *************:

Lee Jones

Support Services Group | In reply to John Honovich | 05/18/18 08:25pm

* **** ************ ** much ***** ******** *&* due *********. ***** **** decades, “*********” ***** *** not **** ************. **** buyer *** ****** ******. It ******* *** ***** of **** ******* ***** the ******* ****. **** comparing ***-******** **********, ** like ** *** *** a **** ******count ** ******** ***** ** ********* ****, **** ******** ***** ******* ****** ********* ** ******. When that number in determined you can also get a more accurate attrition of revenue. Formulas based on “revenue attrition” can be manipulated to meet just about any number. It would be interesting to see the ADT attrition recast with above simple formula.

******: *** *****; ******* Services *****

Undisclosed Manufacturer #2

In reply to Undisclosed Distributor #3 | 05/18/18 01:15pm

******** ** ******-**** *** accounts ***** ** * profitable ******** :-)

David Morgan

Security Dealer Marketing | 05/20/18 06:48am

****, ****’* **** ***** of *** **** ******* the ******* ***** ***** on *** ***** **** ADT ** *** ****** at **.* ***** ******* RMR?

**** ** **** ****** leverage ** *** ***** multiples?

Larry Tracy

05/20/18 06:57am

** *** ** ** will ***** **** *** multiples ** ****** ********* and ********. *** **** ole **** ** ** to ** ***** *** almost ****

David Morgan

Security Dealer Marketing | In reply to Larry Tracy | 05/20/18 07:03am

****** *****. ****’* **** opinion ** *** **** will ****** ****** ******** like ******, ********, ***, ACA, ***?

Larry Tracy

05/20/18 07:18am

**** *** **** **** around *** *** ****** who **** ***** ******** start ******* **** *** high ********** *** ****. The ********* ****** ***'* work ** ******* ********* will ******** **** ****.

*** *** ****** ******* help **** *** **** hurt ** ****. *** has ** ************ **** those ********* *** *** dealers **** ***** ** as **** ** **** can **** ** ******* to *******.

*** *** * **** management **** *** * know *** ****** ****, but **** **** ***** hands ****. * *** it ****'* *** **** to ** ****** **** they ***. ** ** can *** ** *** right ***** ** ** the *** *** *** do **.

Undisclosed #4

05/21/18 09:08pm

********* *** **** ********* the ****** ** * Class ****** ******* *** Inc. *** ******* ******** – ***

Undisclosed #5

In reply to Undisclosed #4 | 05/21/18 11:31pm

** *****, ** ** not **** *** *** in *** *********, ** is **** *** ** not ***. ******* ***** prominent *** ***** *** be ***** ** *** list ** *** *****-****** litigation, *** *** ***-**********.

Larry Tracy

05/22/18 05:16am

**** ** *** *******, there *** ****** * hundred *** ***** ** America **** ********** ** suing ****** ********* ***'* stock ***** * ***. Been ** *** ********* end ** *** ** these, ********* **** *** and ** **** ** away.

* *** ** *** look ******* *** **** plantiff **** *** ***** of *** *****.

** ** ********* ******** always **** " ***** is ** ******* ***** is **** ** "

Lee Jones

Support Services Group | In reply to Larry Tracy | 05/22/18 04:13pm

**** *** ********** ***** be **** *********. ***’* think ***** *** ******** core ********* ** *** “alarm ******** ********”, **** of ***,… ****** ******** ** their ***** *** ****.******/*** ****** ** ******* in *** ******** **** the ******* ** ****** of **** ******/******* ***********. Silence ** ********** …. something ** ****? ***** too **** ** ******* to ********* *** ********* that ******** *********, **** ADT, *** **** *********** with *** ***********, **********, and **** ********* ******** alarms *** ******* **** nuisance ******, **** ** no ********. **** ****** to ******* *** ********* ***********, including **,**,**, **** *** already ****** ********** ***** from ******* **** *****.. Majority ** *** *** customers **** ********* ********* systems …. * ****** of ***** *********. ***** Investors *** *** ******** already **** *** *********, which ** *** *** shares **** ***** **%, to ****** ******, ***** the *** (******** ** $7). ****: ***********/**** *** slide **** $** ******* years *** ** $*.** this ****. ******: *** Jones; ******* ******** *****; LeeSSG@att.net

John Honovich

IPVM | 05/30/18 11:18am

**** ** * **** case *** ***:***: *****'* **** ***, ***** ****** **** a *** ***** *****, improvements ** ******** ***** and ** ********* ********** business ***** *** ** a **** ***** *** at **** ****.

Lee Jones

Support Services Group | In reply to John Honovich | 05/30/18 08:41pm

****... **** *** "********" ****** to **** *******... * strong "bear" **** *** ***… not *** ***** *** bottom ** $*.

John Honovich

IPVM | In reply to Lee Jones | 06/04/18 09:06pm

*** **-*** *** ********** "There's **** ***" *******.

*** ***, **** **** proponents *** ****** "*****'* hope ***", ****'* *** good.

Undisclosed Distributor #3

In reply to John Honovich | 06/04/18 09:27pm

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