ADT Stock Drops 50% Since IPO
It has been a brutal 4 months for ADT.
They first expected to IPO at ~$18.
They IPOed at $14, dropping immediately to $12.39
And now, not even 4 months later, the stock is at just $7 per share. Big picture, they went from an expected market value of $14 billion down to just ~$5.4 billion now.
Vote / Poll
Is this a great buying opportunity or the beginning of the end for ADT?
RMR Impact Bad
Alarm monitoring companies like ADT have historically revealed in their financial power and sky-high valuations. No more for ADT.
In 2016, the industry cheered the deal:
***** *** *********** ******, ****** ***** to ***** *** **** *** **** security ******* ********** * ** *deal ****** ** $** *******...
“****** *** **** **** **** ******* to *** ***** ** ** **** to ***. ** *** *** $** per ***** *****at ** ***** ***. Not bad for the industry’s largest player, particularly given ADT’s strong signs of improvement in most of their key performance indicators.” [Emphasis Added]
***, ***'* ********* *** **** **** $15 ******* ** $*.* ******* *** from ** ***** *** ** ** times ***.
*** *******, **** ** *** **** recent ********* ************ ******* ***** $*** million ***:
*** ** *****'* $*.* ******* *********, **** $331 ******* ** *** ** ***** valued ** **** **.* *****.
***, ** *** ****** ******, *** operationally ** *********, **** ******* *********, shorter ******* *** ********* ********:
******* ****, *** ***** ** ***** pummeled.
The *** ** *********** ***?
*** *******, **** *********, ** **** ADT ** *********** **-********* **** ****** on *** *******. **** *** ** making *** **** ** **** ** possible *** ** ** ***** ****?
*******, ****** *** **** * ***** factor ** *** ***** *******, ********* ********* ******* **** **** *** ******* *** their *** ******** ******. *** **** ******** ******'* ******** ********, ** **, ** ** * self-monitored, ** ****** ****** ** ***. On *** ***** ****, ****** *** such * ***** ****** ** **********, the **** ****** ** ****** ****** after ** *********'* ******** *** ***** valuations ** ****.
***'* ******* *** ******* **** ****** that *** ******** *** **** **** complimentary *** ***-*********** ** ***** **** market ** **** **** ** ** homeowners *** ***** *** ********** ******** and ******* ******** ** ******** (*.*., Pulse). *** ** **** ***, *** has ***************.
*** ****** ** ****** ******** ************ or **** ** * ****** **** the *** ** *** ***** **** of ******** *** *** ****** ****.
"*** **** ** **** *** ** just ******* *******" **** ******* ** you **** ** ****?
*** **** ** ***** ******* ***** if *** ***** ***** *******. * can't ******* *** ***** ** ****** but ** **** **** * ***** a *** ** ********* ** *** lowside **** ******** ***** ******. * suspect *** ****** ** ********** * bit.
*** ** **** ************ ******* ** residential *****. **** **** * ***'* even ***** ** ******* *** ******** will *** *** *****. ***** ********** is **** *** ****.
****** *** **** *** ** ** much **** ** **** ****** **** turn ** *** **** **** ** already ***.
** ****** **** ********** ** ************ dealers *** ***** ********** ** $**.** a *****.
*** **** ** **** ** ** RMR *******, *** *** **** ** this ** ** *** *******?
*** *** * ******* *** ****** image, **** * ********** *** ******* a ****** ********** *******, ********* **** service, *** ***** ******* ********* **** long, ********* ********* **** ************* **** prices.
****'** *** ***.*% ********* ****. **.*%! ** * *** ** alarm ******* **** **** **** * 6% ****** ****, *'* **** ** doors, **** *** *** ******, *** see ** *-** ***** * ***** manager.
****'** *** * **.*% ********* ****. **.*%! ** * *** ** alarm ******* **** **** **** * 6% ****** ****, *'* **** ** doors, **** *** *** ******, *** see ** *-** ***** * ***** manager.
** ********, **** ** **** **** a **.*% ****...
* ** ******, ** **** *****, if ********* ** ** ********** ****** / ****** ******* (****** * ***'* know ****** ***** ***** ******** ********* to **** * **** ***** ** this *********).
* *** ***** ******* ******** ********* Dishonest *** ********** ***** ****** ****** with **** ******, ***** ***** ** precisely **** *** **** ** ***'* public ***** (***, ********* ** *** stories, ***** ****** ******** *********).
********* ** ********** * ****** / harder ******* **** *** ***** **** customers **** ***** ***** ** ** shaken ** **** ** ******** *** abandoned ** **** ** * *** leaves **** ****** ***.
** *** ***********, ******: ***, ********* is ********* ****** ** **** *****, but ****** ***** ********* ** ***** utterly ************. ********* **** **** ** indicative ** * **** ***** *******.
********** ****'* **** *** *** **** than **** ****** ****** **** ** streaming ****** ********* **. ********* ******'* have ****** *** ** *********** ** they ****'* **** ******* ** **** business ********* **** *** ******-**-*** ********* for **** ***** *****.
** ********* ** ******* ****** * percent *** * ***'* ** **** market **** *********.
*** ***** ***** ******* **** ****, which *** ***** ***** ********* ****, is ****** *******. *** ********* ******* don't **** ** *** *** ******** after ****** *** *** **** ***** and **** ****** **** ******* ***** having ********.****** ********** ** ** *** huge ****** **** ****.
* ***** *** *** **** *** 15 ***** **** ****** ****. *** it *** * **** **** ** those ****.
*** *********** *** ********** ******* **** ago **** ********* *** ** ********** simply ** ******** *** **********… ***, “Gross ******** ******* *********”. ****, ***** attrition ** ************ *** **** *********.
******: *** *****; ******* ******** *****
** ******** *** **********
*** *** ****** ** ****? **** is ***'* *********** / *************:
* **** ************ ** **** ***** industry *&* *** *********. ***** **** decades, “*********” ***** *** *** **** standardized. **** ***** *** ****** ******. It ******* *** ***** ** **** dispute ***** *** ******* ****. **** comparing ***-******** **********, ** **** ** ask *** * **** ******count ** ******** ***** ** ********* ****, **** ******** ***** ******* ****** ********* ** ******. When that number in determined you can also get a more accurate attrition of revenue. Formulas based on “revenue attrition” can be manipulated to meet just about any number. It would be interesting to see the ADT attrition recast with above simple formula.
******: *** *****; ******* ******** *****
******** ** ******-**** *** ******** ***** be * ********** ******** :-)
****, ****’* **** ***** ** *** this ******* *** ******* ***** ***** on *** ***** **** *** ** now ****** ** **.* ***** ******* RMR?
**** ** **** ****** ******** ** pay ***** *********?
** *** ** ** **** ***** down *** ********* ** ****** ********* and ********. *** **** *** **** of ** ** ** ***** *** almost ****
****** *****. ****’* **** ******* ** how **** **** ****** ****** ******** like ******, ********, ***, ***, ***?
**** *** **** **** ****** *** the ****** *** **** ***** ******** start ******* **** *** **** ********** are ****. *** ********* ****** ***'* work ** ******* ********* **** ******** even ****.
*** *** ****** ******* **** **** and **** **** ** ****. *** has ** ************ **** ***** ********* and *** ******* **** ***** ** as **** ** **** *** **** no ******* ** *******.
*** *** * **** ********** **** and * **** *** ****** ****, but **** **** ***** ***** ****. I *** ** ****'* *** **** to ** ****** **** **** ***. If ** *** *** ** *** right ***** ** ** *** *** who *** ** **.
** *****, ** ** *** **** you *** ** *** *********, ** is **** *** ** *** ***. Several ***** ********* *** ***** *** be ***** ** *** **** ** ADT *****-****** **********, *** *** ***-**********.
**** ** *** *******, ***** *** around * ******* *** ***** ** America **** ********** ** ***** ****** companies ***'* ***** ***** * ***. Been ** *** ********* *** ** one ** *****, ********* **** *** and ** **** ** ****.
* *** ** *** **** ******* the **** ******** **** *** ***** of *** *****.
** ** ********* ******** ****** **** " ***** ** ** ******* ***** is **** ** "
**** *** ********** ***** ** **** threating. ***’* ***** ***** *** ******** core ********* ** *** “***** ******** industry”, **** ** ***,… ****** ******** ** ***** ***** for ****.******/*** ****** ** ******* ** *** offering **** *** ******* ** ****** of **** ******/******* ***********. ******* ** suggestive …. ********* ** ****? ***** too **** ** ******* ** ********* and ********* **** ******** *********, **** ADT, *** **** *********** **** *** enforcement, **********, *** **** ********* ******** alarms *** ******* **** ******** ******, slow ** ** ********. **** ****** to ******* *** ********* ***********, ********* **,**,**, that *** ******* ****** ********** ***** from ******* **** *****.. ******** ** the *** ********* **** ********* ********* systems …. * ****** ** ***** attrition. ***** ********* *** *** ******** already **** *** *********, ***** ** why *** ****** **** ***** **%, to ****** ******, ***** *** *** (bottomed ** $*). ****: ***********/**** *** slide **** $** ******* ***** *** to $*.** **** ****. ******: *** Jones; ******* ******** *****; ******@***.***
**** ** * **** **** *** ADT:***: *****'* **** ***, ***** ****** **** * *** stock *****, ************ ** ******** ***** and ** ********* ********** ******** ***** ADT ** * **** ***** *** at **** ****.
****... **** *** "********" ****** ** **** article... * ****** "****" **** *** ***… not *** ***** *** ****** ** $7.
*** **-*** *** ********** "*****'* **** Yet" *******.
*** ***, **** **** ********** *** saying "*****'* **** ***", ****'* *** good.
*** ** ******* ******** *** **** ******** to **** ********. ***** *** **** than * *** ***** ********* **** aren't ***** *** ****'** *** ***** to **** ******* **** **** ** stay *** *** *****. * **** of * *** ***** ***** ********* putting ** ********* ** ******** * year. **** ******* **,*** ******** *** more ***** ****. ***** ********* **** out ** *** **** *** ***** the ***** *** ***** *** *******. The **** ** **** *** ** just ******* *******.
********* *** ********* ***** **** ********* like *** ***** *** **** **** ** do ******** ****.