ADT Stock Drops 50% Since IPO

By: John Honovich, Published on May 17, 2018

It has been a brutal 4 months for ADT.

They first expected to IPO at ~$18.

They IPOed at $14, dropping immediately to $12.39

And now, not even 4 months later, the stock is at just $7 per share. Big picture, they went from an expected market value of $14 billion down to just ~$5.4 billion now.

Vote / Poll

Is this a great buying opportunity or the beginning of the end for ADT?

RMR Impact Bad

Alarm monitoring companies like ADT have historically revealed in their financial power and sky-high valuations. No more for ADT.

In 2016, the industry cheered the deal:

** *** **** * brutal * ****** *** ADT.

**** ***** ******** ** IPO ** ~$**.

**** ***** ** $**, dropping *********** ** $**.**

*** ***, *** **** 4 ****** *****, *** stock ** ** **** $7 *** *****. *** picture, **** **** **** an ******** ****** ***** of $** ******* **** to **** ~$*.* ******* now.

Vote / ****

** **** * ***** buying *********** ** *** beginning ** *** *** for ***?

RMR ****** ***

***** ********** ********* **** ADT **** ************ ******** in ***** ********* ***** and ***-**** **********. ** more *** ***.

** ****, *********** ******* *** ****:

[***************]

***** *** *********** ******, Apollo ***** ** ***** ADT **** *** **** security ******* ********** * in *deal ****** ** $** *******...

“****** *** **** **** with ******* ** *** value ** ** **** to ***. ** *** the $** *** ***** offerat ** ***** ***. Not bad for the industry’s largest player, particularly given ADT’s strong signs of improvement in most of their key performance indicators.” [Emphasis Added]

***, ***'* ********* *** gone **** $** ******* to $*.* ******* *** from ** ***** *** to ** ***** ***.

*** *******, **** ** ADT **** ****** ********* presentation ******* ***** $*** million ***:

*** ** *****'* $*.* billion *********, **** $*** million ** *** ** being ****** ** **** 16.3 *****.

***, ** *** ****** argued, *** ************* ** improving, **** ******* *********, shorter ******* *** ********* earnings:

******* ****, *** ***** is ***** ********.

The *** ** *********** ***?

*** *******, **** *********, is **** *** ** essentially **-********* **** ****** on *** *******. **** may ** ****** *** ship ** **** ** possible *** ** ** going ****?

*******, ****** *** **** a ***** ****** ** the ***** *******, ********* ********* ******* **** **** *** rolling *** ***** *** security ******. *** **** ******** ******'* ******** offering, ** **, ** is * ****-*********, ** direct ****** ** ***. On *** ***** ****, Amazon *** **** * track ****** ** **********, the **** ****** ** Amazon ****** ***** ** incumbent's ******** *** ***** valuations ** ****.

***'* ******* *** ******* been ****** **** *** entrants *** **** **** complimentary *** ***-*********** ** their **** ****** ** more **** ** ** homeowners *** ***** *** monitoring ******** *** ******* services ** ******** (*.*., Pulse). *** ** **** end, *** *** ***************.

*** ****** ** ****** severely ************ ** **** is * ****** **** the *** ** *** glory **** ** ******** RMR *** ****** ****.

Comments (24)

Undisclosed Integrator #1

05/17/18 01:29pm

*** ** ******* ******** and **** ******** ** head ********. ***** *** more **** * *** alarm ********* **** ****'* small *** ****'** *** going ** **** ******* they **** ** **** off *** *****. * know ** * *** small ***** ********* ******* on ********* ** ******** a ****. **** ******* 45,000 ******** *** **** every ****. ***** ********* stay *** ** *** news *** ***** *** radar *** ***** *** reasons. *** **** ** real *** ** **** getting *******.

********* *** ********* ***** huge ********* **** *** arent *** **** **** to ** ******** ****.

Undisclosed Manufacturer #2

05/17/18 01:50pm

"*** **** ** **** RMR ** **** ******* started" **** ******* ** you **** ** ****?

Art Stout

05/17/18 03:08pm

*** **** ** ***** private ***** ** *** stock ***** *******. * can't ******* *** ***** of ****** *** ** this **** * ***** a *** ** ********* to *** ******* **** concerns ***** ******. * suspect *** ****** ** overstated * ***.

Larry Tracy

05/18/18 02:32am

*** ** **** ************ cameras ** *********** *****. Good **** * ***'* even ***** ** ******* the ******** **** *** DIY *****. ***** ********** is **** *** ****.

****** *** **** *** to ** **** **** or **** ****** **** turn ** *** **** than ** ******* ***.

** ****** **** ********** by ************ ******* *** being ********** ** $**.** a *****.

Undisclosed Distributor #3

05/18/18 01:08pm

*** **** ** **** is ** *** *******, and *** **** ** this ** ** *** problem?

*** *** * ******* bad ****** *****, **** a ********** *** ******* a ****** ********** *******, providing **** *******, *** using ******* ********* **** long, ********* ********* **** unjustifiably **** ******.

****'** *** ***.*% ********* ****. **.*%! ** * ran ** ***** ******* with **** **** * 6% ****** ****, *'* lock ** *****, **** off *** ******, *** see ** *-** ***** a ***** *******.

John Honovich

IPVM | In reply to Undisclosed Distributor #3 | 05/18/18 01:13pm

****'** *** ***.*% ********* ****. **.*%! ** * ran ** ***** ******* with **** **** * 6% ****** ****, *'* lock ** *****, **** off *** ******, *** see ** *-** ***** a ***** *******.

** ********, **** ** down **** * **.*% rate...

* ** ******, ** that *****, ** ********* is ** ********** ****** / ****** ******* (****** I ***'* **** ****** about ***** ******** ********* to **** * **** sense ** **** *********).

Undisclosed Distributor #3

In reply to John Honovich | 05/18/18 01:30pm

* *** ***** ******* designer ********* ********* *** Misleading ***** ****** ****** with **** ******, ***** lines ** ********* **** the **** ** ***'* public ***** (***, ********* to *** *******, ***** actual ******** *********).

********* ** ********** * larger / ****** ******* when *** ***** **** customers **** ***** ***** to ** ****** ** hard ** ******** *** abandoned ** **** ** a *** ****** **** fallen ***.

** *** ***********, ******: yes, ********* ** ********* harder ** **** *****, but ****** ***** ********* is ***** ******* ************. Attrition **** **** ** indicative ** * **** alarm *******.

********** ****'* **** *** any **** **** **** killed ****** **** ** streaming ****** ********* **. Customers ******'* **** ****** out ** *********** ** they ****'* **** ******* to **** ******** ********* from *** ******-**-*** ********* for **** ***** *****.

Larry Tracy

In reply to John Honovich | 05/18/18 03:27pm

** ********* ** ******* around * ******* *** I ***'* ** **** market **** *********.

*** ***** ***** ******* they ****, ***** *** older ***** ********* ****, is ****** *******. *** customers ******* ***'* **** to *** *** ******** after ****** *** *** plus ***** *** **** cancel **** ******* ***** having ********.****** ********** ** NY *** **** ****** with ****.

* ***** *** *** sold *** ** ***** back ****** ****. *** it *** * **** mess ** ***** ****.

Lee Jones

Support Services Group | In reply to John Honovich | 05/18/18 04:36pm

*** *********** *** ********** learned **** *** **** attrition *** ** ********** simply ** ******** *** definition… ***, “***** ******** Revenue *********”. ****, ***** attrition ** ************ *** rate *********.

******: *** *****; ******* Services *****

John Honovich

IPVM | In reply to Lee Jones | 05/18/18 07:11pm

** ******** *** **********

*** *** ****** ** that? **** ** ***'* explanation / *************:

Lee Jones

Support Services Group | In reply to John Honovich | 05/18/18 08:25pm

* **** ************ ** much ***** ******** *&* due *********. ***** **** decades, “*********” ***** *** not **** ************. **** buyer *** ****** ******. It ******* *** ***** of **** ******* ***** the ******* ****. **** comparing ***-******** **********, ** like ** *** *** a **** ******count ** ******** ***** ** ********* ****, **** ******** ***** ******* ****** ********* ** ******. When that number in determined you can also get a more accurate attrition of revenue. Formulas based on “revenue attrition” can be manipulated to meet just about any number. It would be interesting to see the ADT attrition recast with above simple formula.

******: *** *****; ******* Services *****

Undisclosed Manufacturer #2

In reply to Undisclosed Distributor #3 | 05/18/18 01:15pm

******** ** ******-**** *** accounts ***** ** * profitable ******** :-)

Avatar

David Morgan

Security Dealer Marketing | 05/20/18 06:48am

****, ****’* **** ***** of *** **** ******* the ******* ***** ***** on *** ***** **** ADT ** *** ****** at **.* ***** ******* RMR?

**** ** **** ****** leverage ** *** ***** multiples?

Larry Tracy

05/20/18 06:57am

** *** ** ** will ***** **** *** multiples ** ****** ********* and ********. *** **** ole **** ** ** to ** ***** *** almost ****

Avatar

David Morgan

Security Dealer Marketing | In reply to Larry Tracy | 05/20/18 07:03am

****** *****. ****’* **** opinion ** *** **** will ****** ****** ******** like ******, ********, ***, ACA, ***?

Larry Tracy

05/20/18 07:18am

**** *** **** **** around *** *** ****** who **** ***** ******** start ******* **** *** high ********** *** ****. The ********* ****** ***'* work ** ******* ********* will ******** **** ****.

*** *** ****** ******* help **** *** **** hurt ** ****. *** has ** ************ **** those ********* *** *** dealers **** ***** ** as **** ** **** can **** ** ******* to *******.

*** *** * **** management **** *** * know *** ****** ****, but **** **** ***** hands ****. * *** it ****'* *** **** to ** ****** **** they ***. ** ** can *** ** *** right ***** ** ** the *** *** *** do **.

Undisclosed #4

05/21/18 09:08pm

********* *** **** ********* the ****** ** * Class ****** ******* *** Inc. *** ******* ******** – ***

Undisclosed #5

In reply to Undisclosed #4 | 05/21/18 11:31pm

** *****, ** ** not **** *** *** in *** *********, ** is **** *** ** not ***. ******* ***** prominent *** ***** *** be ***** ** *** list ** *** *****-****** litigation, *** *** ***-**********.

Larry Tracy

05/22/18 05:16am

**** ** *** *******, there *** ****** * hundred *** ***** ** America **** ********** ** suing ****** ********* ***'* stock ***** * ***. Been ** *** ********* end ** *** ** these, ********* **** *** and ** **** ** away.

* *** ** *** look ******* *** **** plantiff **** *** ***** of *** *****.

** ** ********* ******** always **** " ***** is ** ******* ***** is **** ** "

Lee Jones

Support Services Group | In reply to Larry Tracy | 05/22/18 04:13pm

**** *** ********** ***** be **** *********. ***’* think ***** *** ******** core ********* ** *** “alarm ******** ********”, **** of ***,… ****** ******** ** their ***** *** ****.******/*** ****** ** ******* in *** ******** **** the ******* ** ****** of **** ******/******* ***********. Silence ** ********** …. something ** ****? ***** too **** ** ******* to ********* *** ********* that ******** *********, **** ADT, *** **** *********** with *** ***********, **********, and **** ********* ******** alarms *** ******* **** nuisance ******, **** ** no ********. **** ****** to ******* *** ********* legislation, ********* **,**,**, **** has ******* ****** ********** firms **** ******* **** first.. ******** ** *** ADT ********* **** ********* deterrent ******* …. * source ** ***** *********. Maybe ********* *** *** analysts ******* **** *** backstory, ***** ** *** ADT ****** **** ***** 50%, ** ****** ******, since *** *** (******** at $*). ****: ***********/**** has ***** **** $** several ***** *** ** $2.28 **** ****. ******: Lee *****; ******* ******** Group; ******@***.***

John Honovich

IPVM | 05/30/18 11:18am

**** ** * **** case *** ***:***: *****'* **** ***, ***** ****** **** a *** ***** *****, improvements ** ******** ***** and ** ********* ********** business ***** *** ** a **** ***** *** at **** ****.

Lee Jones

Support Services Group | In reply to John Honovich | 05/30/18 08:41pm

****... **** *** "********" posted ** **** *******... A ****** "****" **** for ***… *** *** found *** ****** ** $7.

John Honovich

IPVM | In reply to Lee Jones | 06/04/18 09:06pm

*** **-*** *** ********** "There's **** ***" *******.

*** ***, **** **** proponents *** ****** "*****'* hope ***", ****'* *** good.

Undisclosed Distributor #3

In reply to John Honovich | 06/04/18 09:27pm

Login to read this IPVM report.
Why do I need to log in?
IPVM conducts unique testing and research funded by member's payments enabling us to offer the most independent, accurate and in-depth information.

Related Reports

Avigilon President Henderson Is Out on Jul 09, 2019
Avigilon's President and COO James Henderson is out, abruptly, after a remarkable ascension over the past 8 years, Motorola VP Jack Molloy has...
RaySharp Revealed - Major China OEM For Western Consumer Video Surveillance on Jul 02, 2019
RaySharp is mostly unknown, even among people in the video surveillance industry, though it is a major supplier of OEM surveillance equipment such...
"New" Arecont Fixes Failures "Without A Fight" on Jun 05, 2019
The "old" Arecont was infamous not only for its camera failures but for making their "partners" fight to get them fixed. IPVM drew the ire of...
Alibaba Makes Major Investment Into Uniview on May 30, 2019
China's e-commerce and cloud services giant Alibaba has bought 15% of the shares of Uniview's parent company, TransInfo, in a deal worth ~$500...
ASCMA / Monitronics Declares Chapter 11 Bankruptcy on May 22, 2019
Monitronics is entering into Chapter 11 bankruptcy. The company, also called Ascent Capital Group Inc., aka ASCMA, aka Brinks Home Security,...
IBM Shuts Down Intelligent Video Analytics on May 02, 2019
Abruptly, IBM has discontinued its Intelligent Video Analytics solution, it confirmed to IPVM. IBM's video analytics have faced recent media...
Milestone Execs on Financials, China and Future on Apr 29, 2019
Milestone has released a 44-page annual report for 2018, an atypical and unrequired move for a subsidiary of a large company, however, Milestone...
Hikvision Admits USA Sales Falling on Apr 22, 2019
Hikvision, in a new Chinese financial filing, has admitted that its USA sales are now falling. Less than a year after the US government passed a...
Arecont Favorability Results 2019 on Apr 22, 2019
Arecont's net negativity remained the same in IPVM's 2019 integrator study, though integrator's feeling became relatively more neutral compared to...
Brinks Home Security / ASCMA Risks Bankruptcy on Apr 08, 2019
ASCMA, aka MONI, aka Brinks Home Security has issued a warning in their most recent financials that they risk bankruptcy. In this note, based on...

Most Recent Industry Reports

Responsibility Split Selecting Locks - Statistics on Jul 22, 2019
A heated access debate surrounds who should pick and install the locks. While responsible for selecting the control systems, integrators often...
Vivotek Trend Micro Cyber Security Camera App Tested on Jul 22, 2019
Vivotek and Trend Micro are claiming five million blocked attacks on IP cameras, with their jointly developed app for Vivotek cameras. This new...
Avigilon ACC7 VMS Tested on Jul 22, 2019
Avigilon's Control Center 7 boldly claims it will "transform live video monitoring" with the new Focus of Attention "AI-enabled" interface. We...
History of Video Surveillance on Jul 19, 2019
The video surveillance market has changed significantly since 2000, going from VCRs to emerging into an AI cloud era.  The goal of this history...
Mobile Access Usage Statistics 2019 on Jul 18, 2019
The ability to use mobile phones as access credentials is one of the biggest trends in a market that historically has been slow in adopting new...
New GDPR Guidelines for Video Surveillance Examined on Jul 18, 2019
The highest-level EU data protection authority has issued a new series of provisional video surveillance guidelines. While GDPR has been in...
Wyze AI Analytics Tested - Beats Axis and Hikvision on Jul 17, 2019
$20 camera disruptor Wyze has released free person detection deep learning analytics to all of their users, claiming users will "Only get notified...
Anyvision Aims For 2022 Revenue of $1 Billion on Jul 17, 2019
Only 3 video surveillance manufacturers do a billion dollars or more in annual revenue - Hikvision, Dahua, and Axis. Now, Anyvision plans to join...
HD Analog vs IP Guide on Jul 16, 2019
For years, HD resolution and single cable signal/power were IP camera advantages, with analog cameras limited to much lower resolution and...
How To Troubleshoot Wiegand Reader Problems - Inverted Wiring on Jul 16, 2019
Wiegand is the dominant method of connecting access readers, but problems can arise for installers. In fact, one of the most difficult reader...

The world's leading video surveillance information source, IPVM provides the best reporting, testing and training for 10,000+ members globally. Dedicated to independent and objective information, we uniquely refuse any and all advertisements, sponsorship and consulting from manufacturers.

About | FAQ | Contact