ADT Stock Drops 50% Since IPO

Author: John Honovich, Published on May 17, 2018

It has been a brutal 4 months for ADT.

They first expected to IPO at ~$18.

They IPOed at $14, dropping immediately to $12.39

And now, not even 4 months later, the stock is at just $7 per share. Big picture, they went from an expected market value of $14 billion down to just ~$5.4 billion now.

Vote / Poll

Is this a great buying opportunity or the beginning of the end for ADT?

RMR Impact Bad

Alarm monitoring companies like ADT have historically revealed in their financial power and sky-high valuations. No more for ADT.

In 2016, the industry cheered the deal:

** *** **** * ****** * ****** *** ***.

**** ***** ******** ** *** ** ~$**.

**** ***** ** $**, ******** *********** ** $**.**

*** ***, *** **** * ****** *****, *** ***** ** at **** $* *** *****. *** *******, **** **** **** an ******** ****** ***** ** $** ******* **** ** **** ~$5.4 ******* ***.

Vote / ****

** **** * ***** ****** *********** ** *** ********* ** the *** *** ***?

RMR ****** ***

***** ********** ********* **** *** **** ************ ******** ** ***** financial ***** *** ***-**** **********. ** **** *** ***.

** ****, *********** ******* *** ****:

[***************]

***** *** *********** ******, ****** ***** ** ***** *** **** its **** ******** ******* ********** * ** *deal ****** ** $** *******...

“****** *** **** **** **** ******* ** *** ***** ** be **** ** ***. ** *** *** $** *** ***** offerat ** ***** ***. Not bad for the industry’s largest player, particularly given ADT’s strong signs of improvement in most of their key performance indicators.” [Emphasis Added]

***, ***'* ********* *** **** **** $** ******* ** $*.* billion *** **** ** ***** *** ** ** ***** ***.

*** *******, **** ** *** **** ****** ********* ************ ******* their $*** ******* ***:

*** ** *****'* $*.* ******* *********, **** $*** ******* ** RMR ** ***** ****** ** **** **.* *****.

***, ** *** ****** ******, *** ************* ** *********, **** reduced *********, ******* ******* *** ********* ********:

******* ****, *** ***** ** ***** ********.

The *** ** *********** ***?

*** *******, **** *********, ** **** *** ** *********** **-********* deck ****** ** *** *******. **** *** ** ****** *** ship ** **** ** ******** *** ** ** ***** ****?

*******, ****** *** **** * ***** ****** ** *** ***** decline, ********* ********* ******* **** **** *** ******* *** ***** *** ******** ******. But **** ******** ******'* ******** ********, ** **, ** ** * ****-*********, ** ****** ****** to ***. ** *** ***** ****, ****** *** **** * track ****** ** **********, *** **** ****** ** ****** ****** after ** *********'* ******** *** ***** ********** ** ****.

***'* ******* *** ******* **** ****** **** *** ******** *** much **** ************* *** ***-*********** ** ***** **** ****** ** more **** ** ** ********** *** ***** *** ********** ******** and ******* ******** ** ******** (*.*., *****). *** ** **** end, *** *** ***************.

*** ****** ** ****** ******** ************ ** **** ** * signal **** *** *** ** *** ***** **** ** ******** RMR *** ****** ****.

Comments (24)

*** ** ******* ******** *** **** ******** ** **** ********. There *** **** **** * *** ***** ********* **** ****'* small *** ****'** *** ***** ** **** ******* **** **** to **** *** *** *****. * **** ** * *** small ***** ********* ******* ** ********* ** ******** * ****. Some ******* **,*** ******** *** **** ***** ****. ***** ********* stay *** ** *** **** *** ***** *** ***** *** their *** *******. *** **** ** **** *** ** **** getting *******.

********* *** ********* ***** **** ********* **** *** ***** *** they **** ** ** ******** ****.

"*** **** ** **** *** ** **** ******* *******" **** exactly ** *** **** ** ****?

*** **** ** ***** ******* ***** ** *** ***** ***** further. * ***'* ******* *** ***** ** ****** *** ** this **** * ***** * *** ** ********* ** *** lowside **** ******** ***** ******. * ******* *** ****** ** overstated * ***.

*** ** **** ************ ******* ** *********** *****. **** **** I ***'* **** ***** ** ******* *** ******** **** *** DIY *****. ***** ********** ** **** *** ****.

****** *** **** *** ** ** **** **** ** **** market **** **** ** *** **** **** ** ******* ***.

** ****** **** ********** ** ************ ******* *** ***** ********** at $**.** * *****.

*** **** ** **** ** ** *** *******, *** *** much ** **** ** ** *** *******?

*** *** * ******* *** ****** *****, **** * ********** for ******* * ****** ********** *******, ********* **** *******, *** using ******* ********* **** ****, ********* ********* **** ************* **** prices.

****'** *** ***.*% ********* ****. **.*%! ** * *** ** ***** ******* **** **** than * *% ****** ****, *'* **** ** *****, **** off *** ******, *** *** ** *-** ***** * ***** manager.

****'** *** ***.*% ********* ****. **.*%! ** * *** ** ***** ******* **** **** than * *% ****** ****, *'* **** ** *****, **** off *** ******, *** *** ** *-** ***** * ***** manager.

** ********, **** ** **** **** * **.*% ****...

* ** ******, ** **** *****, ** ********* ** ** inherently ****** / ****** ******* (****** * ***'* **** ****** about ***** ******** ********* ** **** * **** ***** ** this *********).

* *** ***** ******* ******** ********* ********* *** ********** ***** Making ****** **** **** ******, ***** ***** ** ********* **** the **** ** ***'* ****** ***** (***, ********* ** *** stories, ***** ****** ******** *********).

********* ** ********** * ****** / ****** ******* **** *** treat **** ********* **** ***** ***** ** ** ****** ** hard ** ******** *** ********* ** **** ** * *** leaves **** ****** ***.

** *** ***********, ******: ***, ********* ** ********* ****** ** that *****, *** ****** ***** ********* ** ***** ******* ************. Attrition **** **** ** ********** ** * **** ***** *******.

********** ****'* **** *** *** **** **** **** ****** ****** cabs ** ********* ****** ********* **. ********* ******'* **** ****** out ** *********** ** **** ****'* **** ******* ** **** business ********* **** *** ******-**-*** ********* *** **** ***** *****.

** ********* ** ******* ****** * ******* *** * ***'* do **** ****** **** *********.

*** ***** ***** ******* **** ****, ***** *** ***** ***** companies ****, ** ****** *******. *** ********* ******* ***'* **** to *** *** ******** ***** ****** *** *** **** ***** and **** ****** **** ******* ***** ****** ********.****** ********** ** NY *** **** ****** **** ****.

* ***** *** *** **** *** ** ***** **** ****** 2010. *** ** *** * **** **** ** ***** ****.

*** *********** *** ********** ******* **** *** **** ********* *** be ********** ****** ** ******** *** **********… ***, “***** ******** Revenue *********”. ****, ***** ********* ** ************ *** **** *********.

******: *** *****; ******* ******** *****

** ******** *** **********

*** *** ****** ** ****? **** ** ***'* *********** / justification:

* **** ************ ** **** ***** ******** *&* *** *********. After **** *******, “*********” ***** *** *** **** ************. **** buyer *** ****** ******. ** ******* *** ***** ** **** dispute ***** *** ******* ****. **** ********* ***-******** **********, ** like ** *** *** * **** ******count ** ******** ***** ** ********* ****, **** ******** ***** ******* ****** ********* ** ******. When that number in determined you can also get a more accurate attrition of revenue. Formulas based on “revenue attrition” can be manipulated to meet just about any number. It would be interesting to see the ADT attrition recast with above simple formula.

******: *** *****; ******* ******** *****

******** ** ******-**** *** ******** ***** ** * ********** ******** :-)

****, ****’* **** ***** ** *** **** ******* *** ******* sales ***** ** *** ***** **** *** ** *** ****** at **.* ***** ******* ***?

**** ** **** ****** ******** ** *** ***** *********?

** *** ** ** **** ***** **** *** ********* ** buying ********* *** ********. *** **** *** **** ** ** to ** ***** *** ****** ****

****** *****. ****’* **** ******* ** *** **** **** ****** dealer ******** **** ******, ********, ***, ***, ***?

**** *** **** **** ****** *** *** ****** *** **** these ******** ***** ******* **** *** **** ********** *** ****. The ********* ****** ***'* **** ** ******* ********* **** ******** even ****.

*** *** ****** ******* **** **** *** **** **** ** well. *** *** ** ************ **** ***** ********* *** *** dealers **** ***** ** ** **** ** **** *** **** no ******* ** *******.

*** *** * **** ********** **** *** * **** *** pretty ****, *** **** **** ***** ***** ****. * *** it ****'* *** **** ** ** ****** **** **** ***. If ** *** *** ** *** ***** ***** ** ** the *** *** *** ** **.

** *****, ** ** *** **** *** *** ** *** documents, ** ** **** *** ** *** ***. ******* ***** prominent *** ***** *** ** ***** ** *** **** ** ADT *****-****** **********, *** *** ***-**********.

**** ** *** *******, ***** *** ****** * ******* *** firms ** ******* **** ********** ** ***** ****** ********* ***'* stock ***** * ***. **** ** *** ********* *** ** one ** *****, ********* **** *** *** ** **** ** away.

* *** ** *** **** ******* *** **** ******** **** one ***** ** *** *****.

** ** ********* ******** ****** **** " ***** ** ** justice ***** ** **** ** "

**** *** ********** ***** ** **** *********. ***’* ***** ***** the ******** **** ********* ** *** “***** ******** ********”, **** of ***,… ****** ******** ** ***** ***** *** ****.******/*** ****** ** ******* ** *** ******** **** *** ******* in ****** ** **** ******/******* ***********. ******* ** ********** …. something ** ****? ***** *** **** ** ******* ** ********* and ********* **** ******** *********, **** ***, *** **** *********** with *** ***********, **********, *** **** ********* ******** ****** *** treated **** ******** ******, **** ** ** ********. **** ****** to ******* *** ********* ***********, ********* **,**,**, **** *** ******* banned ********** ***** **** ******* **** *****.. ******** ** *** ADT ********* **** ********* ********* ******* …. * ****** ** heavy *********. ***** ********* *** *** ******** ******* **** *** backstory, ***** ** *** *** ****** **** ***** **%, ** single ******, ***** *** *** (******** ** $*). ****: ***********/**** has ***** **** $** ******* ***** *** ** $*.** **** week. ******: *** *****; ******* ******** *****; ******@***.***

**** ** * **** **** *** ***:***: *****'* **** ***, ***** ****** **** * *** ***** *****, ************ ** reducing ***** *** ** ********* ********** ******** ***** *** ** a **** ***** *** ** **** ****.

****... **** *** "********" ****** ** **** *******... * ****** "bear" **** *** ***… *** *** ***** *** ****** ** $7.

*** **-*** *** ********** "*****'* **** ***" *******.

*** ***, **** **** ********** *** ****** "*****'* **** ***", that's *** ****.

Login to read this IPVM report.
Why do I need to log in?
IPVM conducts unique testing and research funded by member's payments enabling us to offer the most independent, accurate and in-depth information.

Related Reports

Imperial Capital Security Investor Conference 2018 Review - ADT, Resideo, Alarm.com, Arlo, Eagle Eye, ACRE, More on Dec 14, 2018
Imperial Capital Security Investor Conference is an event matching industry executives with financiers that frequently leads to future funding...
Foolish Strategy: OEMing Facial Recognition on Dec 13, 2018
Almost as 'hot' as face recognition marketing right now is OEMing facial recognition. Last year, they were a who's who of company's with...
The 2019 Video Surveillance Industry Guide on Dec 10, 2018
The 300 page, 2019 Video Surveillance Industry Guide, covers the key events and the future of the video surveillance market, is now available,...
Video Surveillance Hard Drive Size Statistics 2018 on Nov 08, 2018
What is the most common hard drive size for video surveillance? 150+ integrators answered: What size hard drive do you most commonly use? What...
Favorite Video Surveillance Hard Drive Manufacturer 2018 on Nov 06, 2018
Who is the favorite hard drive for video surveillance use? 150+ integrators answered: What is your preferred brand/model of hard drive for...
Video Surveillance Hard Drive Failure Statistics 2018 on Nov 02, 2018
Hard drive failures can be significant service problems but how common of an issue are they in video surveillance? How long do drives last when...
Resideo IPOs, Then Plunges on Oct 31, 2018
ADI and Honeywell Homes management have been touting their spinout and IPO for months, including appearing on Wall Street as they widely shared on...
Axis Strong US Growth, Flat EMEA - Q3 2018 Financials on Oct 18, 2018
This spring, Axis had its best financials in many years (see Axis Strong Q2 2018 Results). However, over the summer, Axis had many products sold...
Knightscope Winning Investors, Struggling With Growth on Oct 16, 2018
While Knightscope's new financials show the company only winning 11 new customers in the past 12 months, the company continues to win new...
ADI's Financials Revealed + W-Box Growth Priority on Oct 15, 2018
  ADI is one of the most powerful distributors in the security industry but how big are they? How much profit do they make? How much do they sell...

Most Recent Industry Reports

Imperial Capital Security Investor Conference 2018 Review - ADT, Resideo, Alarm.com, Arlo, Eagle Eye, ACRE, More on Dec 14, 2018
Imperial Capital Security Investor Conference is an event matching industry executives with financiers that frequently leads to future funding...
Cisco Meraki New Cameras and AI Analytics on Dec 14, 2018
Meraki has released their second generation of video surveillance with 3 new cameras, AI-based video analytics, and 2 cloud-based storage...
Foolish Strategy: OEMing Facial Recognition on Dec 13, 2018
Almost as 'hot' as face recognition marketing right now is OEMing facial recognition. Last year, they were a who's who of company's with...
DVR Examiner - Video Recovery from Recorder Hard Drives on Dec 13, 2018
Bypassing passwords and long download times on-site, DVR Examiner collects and organizes video evidence directly from a hard drive extracted from...
2019 Access Control Book Released on Dec 12, 2018
This is the best, most comprehensive access control book in the world, based on our unprecedented research and testing has been significantly...
Huawei Hisilicon Quietly Powering Tens of Millions of Western IoT Devices on Dec 12, 2018
Huawei Hisilicon chips are powering, at least, tens of millions of Western IoT devices, such as IP cameras and surveillance recorders, a fact that...
FLIR Launches Body Cameras Unified With VMS (TruWitness) on Dec 11, 2018
While FLIR is best known for their thermal cameras, now they have expanded into body cameras, launching TruWITNESS, a public safety focused body...
Startup Sunflower Labs' Autonomous Drone Security System on Dec 11, 2018
Startup Sunflower Labs is claiming a unique design on a home security system, combining autonomous drones and 'Sunflower' sensors. Imagine an...
The 2019 Video Surveillance Industry Guide on Dec 10, 2018
The 300 page, 2019 Video Surveillance Industry Guide, covers the key events and the future of the video surveillance market, is now available,...
Multi-Factor Access Control Authentication Guide on Dec 10, 2018
Can a stranger use your credentials? One of the oldest problems facing access control is making credentials as easy to use as keys, but restricting...

The world's leading video surveillance information source, IPVM provides the best reporting, testing and training for 10,000+ members globally. Dedicated to independent and objective information, we uniquely refuse any and all advertisements, sponsorship and consulting from manufacturers.

About | FAQ | Contact