China Smartphone Shipments Down, Are Surveillance Cameras Next?

One of the big recent mainstream news stories is that China smartphone shipments in 2018 fell, year over year:

China Academy of Information and Communications Technology (CAICT), a research institute under the country’s Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, said shipments dropped 15.5 percent to roughly 390 million units for the year, with a 17 percent slump in December.

How likely is a similar pattern to appear for video surveillance cameras?

There are certainly differences between the two but both have benefited from a massive expansion of use, driven by falling prices (iPhones are ~$1,000 each but Chinese android phones are widely available at 80% lower price).

For example, IHS is forecasting 181 million surveillance cameras to be sold in 2019 (as discussed here). And, on the plus, China's Skynet is a big driver of camera sales. But after, now, many years of super cheap cameras, at what point is the market saturated? What is the greenfield market out there? How strong will replacement sales be?

Curious to hear thoughts on this. I've also created this poll:

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