Why is Avigilon's Stock Falling Like a Knife?

Author: John Honovich, Published on Oct 08, 2014

A week ago, a prominent Avigilon investor admitted, "Nobody wants to hold [Avigilon stock]. Everybody wants to sell it." He then recommended buying it.

He evidently was right, at least partially.

In the past week, Avigilon's stock has dropped another 20% and is now down nearly 60% from its high earlier this year.

Avigilon's market valuation is down over $900 million since then.

[Update October 10th - Avigilon stock ended the week at a new low: $13.90 per share.]

From speaking to investors and analysts covering Avigilon, here are the main reasons they are offering for the fall:

  • Lack of confidence in CEO
  • Issues with management team
  • Problems in hiring / scaling
  • Low cost competition increasing
  • Competitor products catching up
  • Accounting irregularities
  • Growth rate sharp decline

Inside, we provide our analysis on how accurate we believe each reason is.

* **** ***, * ********* ******** ****************, "****** ***** ** **** [******** *****]. ********* ***** ** sell **." ** **** *********** ****** **.

** ********* *** *****, ** ***** *********.

** *** **** ****, ********'* ***** *** ******* ******* **% and ** *** **** ****** **% **** *** **** ******* this ****.

********'* ****** ********* ** **** **** $*** ******* ***** ****.

[****** ******* **** - ******** ***** ***** *** **** ** a *** ***: $**.** *** *****.]

**** ******** ** ********* *** ******** ******** ********, **** *** the **** ******* **** *** ******** *** *** ****:

  • **** ** ********** ** ***
  • ****** **** ********** ****
  • ******** ** ****** / *******
  • *** **** *********** **********
  • ********** ******** ******** **
  • ********** **************
  • ****** **** ***** *******

******, ** ******* *** ******** ** *** ******** ** ******* each ****** **.

[***************]

CEO **********

*** #* ******** *** ********* ** ****** '***********'. ** *** ******* ******* ******. *** **** ****** ********* transformed **** * ********* ** ****** ********* ** ***** ********* ***'****' *** *********** **** * *** ***.

*** ****** ******* ******* ** ** * ******* *****, ***** each ***** ***** **** ** ******* ********** **** *** *** is ***** * *** ***. **** ** ****** ******* ********* loved *** * **** *** **** *** ***** ***** *** shooting *******.

******* ** ** **** ** ***, ** ** ********* ******* a *********** ****.

Management ****

*** *** '***********' *** ***** **** ********** ***** ** *** **** ****, ********* ***** ** *********, ***** ** **, ***** ** ************** ******* *********.

*******,******** ******** *********** * ******** ******** *** ************** ** ********'* ********** ****.

******** ** ***** ********* *** * *********** ***, ***** ** a ******* ** *** ******* **** *********.

Hiring / *******

******** ********* *** ***, *** ********'* ********* *** ****** *****, ** Q2 ****. ******** **** ***** ** ***** *********, ** **** 5% *** *** ******* (*** ** ***).

*******, *** ******** ** *** ******** ******** ****** ******** ***** a **** **** *** **** * ******. *** **** ******* is ********* ****** ** ** *********, *** **** ***** ****** ***** *** ********** *** *********.

****** ******** ***** ***** ****** '*' *******, *** *** ********* we **** **** *** ********* ******** ********* ** ****** ****** **** * few ***** ** *** ***** **********. ***** ** ********* ** exodus ** *** **** ****** **** *** ************ ************* **** Axis, ******* *** ********* ** ********. *** **** *** ***** price ******** **** ****, **** ** ** **** ****** ****** to **** ****.

Low **** ***********

******* **** ***** **, *** *** ***** ************* *** ***** attack ** *** **** *********** - ********* **** ********* *** Dahua, ** ********** - **** ********* ******* *** ********* ***** pricing. ******, ************* ******* ***** **** ******* #* *********.

*** ******** *******, ** *** ********* ** *** **** ****** alternative, ***** ******* **** ******** ******* ** * ***** **** alternative.

******** *** **** * *** **** ****** ****** (****** *** Chinese ************ *********) *** **** **** **** ***** ****** **** while ****** **** ******* (*** *** ** ****** ***** ********** *** ****** ******).

Competitor ******** ******** **

**** ********* *** *** ******** / ********* / ******* **** competitors *** ******** **.

*********, **** *** *** *** *** ********** ***** ***** **** was**** ****.********* ******** * ***, **** *** ************ *** **** *********, ***.

********** ********, ******** ** ***** ***** ****, **** ********* **** ***************** ** ******** *******.

Accounting **************

**** ******, ** ***** ** ******** ********** ****** *** ********, ******** *** ******* ********* ********.

**** ** **** *** **** ********* *** ********'* *** ************ denied ******* ********. *******, **** ********* *** ****** *** ******** of '** ***** ** *****, ***** **** ** ****'.

Growth **** ***** *******

******* ********* ****** **** *** *** **** ********* ** **** is ~**%. ***** **** ** ***** *** ****** ***** ***** ************ manufacturer, **** ***** ** * **** ** **** *** **** Avigilons' ****** ****** ***.

*******, **** ********** *** **** *********** *** ***** *** **** time, ** ** **** *** ******* *** *** ***** ******* has **** ************ ** *** **** *****. *** ****** ** that, ***** *** ******* ***** **** ****, *** ******* **** leaked *** **** **** *** **** ***** **** *** ******* estimates.

Irrational *********

** *** ********* ** **** ****, ********* **** ************ **********. The ********* *** **** ******** *** ***** ** **** ** astronomic ***** *** ***** ** ****.

***, ** ** ******** **** ********* **** **** ******* *** other ***.

What's ****?

********'* ****** ********* ** ~$*** *******, **** ~$*** ******* **** in *** ****. *** * ******* ***** ******** ** ****** of ******* ** $*** *******, ****'* ***** ***********, **** ** you ***** ******** ** **** ***** ** ** ** ******** normal **-**% ****** **** *******.

*** *** ***** *** ******* ********** **** ******** *** ********** irregularities. ** ****** ** ***** **** ** ** ** ****, the ***** ***** **** ***** ****** ** *********. *******, ** Avigilon ** ****** ************* ** * '******' ** ***** ************ manufacturer, ****** ******.

Industry ******

***** ***** ***** ******** *** **** ***** *********** *******. *** pressure **** ****** ** ********** ** ******* *** ********** ***** down ** *** ****** ************.

******** ***** *** ***** ***** ** ******* (** ***** **** what) ** ******* **** ******** *** ******** ******** ***** *** new **********.

******** ***** *** * ****** *********** *******, ***** ******* *** loads ** **** ** *** ****. *******, ********'* ***** **** the **** *** ****** **** ** ******** ** *********** ** it *** *******.

Comments (27)

Tim Campbell

10/09/14 09:08am

(** * ******* ** **********, * ** *** **** ******** stock)

********* ** ******** ****** *******, **** * ***** ******** ******** (including *** ***, ******* *** *** ***** ****** *********) **** bought **** ******** ***** ***** *** ***** ******* ** ***. These *** ********** ********* ** *** ******, *** *******, ***** if ******** ***** ***** ** ** ***** ** *** ****** of ******** ****** ******** *****. *** *** ******* *** **** any ***** **** **** ****.

**** **** ** ********** ****** ** ******* ******/******* **** ** publicly ********.

****** **** "****** ***** ** ***" **** ******* ***** *** a **** * *****, *** *** ****** ** ***** ** the ******** ***** ****** ******. **** *** **** **** **** worthless ******* **** ******** **** *** ********* **********, **: *** there **********/********* ****** ** *** *******? ******** ******* ************* *** ***? ***... **** ** ** **** interest.

****, *** ******* ****** *** **** ********** ********** ********* ** Avigilon, *** ** ** ** ******** ******** ******* **** ***** money ** ******* *** *******.

**** **** *** * *** ** ***** *********** ***** ***** security ********* **** ** **** ** ********** ** **** *********, which ***** ** * ******** ********. *** ********* *** ***** of ********* ***** ****** ***** *** *****-******* **** *** **** a **********. ***** ** ****** ** **** *** **** ******.

John Honovich

IPVM | In reply to Tim Campbell | 10/09/14 10:09am

***, ** ******** **** ** *** *****, ********* *********** / rebutting ***** * ****** ** ****.

Tim Campbell

In reply to John Honovich | 10/09/14 12:42pm

****, * ***** *** ****** *** ******* **** ****, *** I ** *** ********** (** ****** **** ** ****) **** you *** ************* ****-******** *** *******. *** ******** *** **** raised ***** ******** *** **** *** * ***** ****. *** they *** *** ******* ** ** ****. ** **** ********** was ******** **** ** **** ****** **** **** *** *** paid (**********) ******* *********** ** ***** ***** ** *** ****** value ** *** ****.

******** ***** ** **********, ***-**** ***********, ****** *********, *********, ****** rates ... *** ... ** **** **** *** ******** (** I *** *** **) *** ********* * ***'* **** *** free *********, ****** ******* ***** ****** **********.

**** ** *** **** ****, ****** :)

John Honovich

IPVM | 10/11/14 02:32pm

********* ******:

*** ******** ******* ** **** ** ********* **** ******** **** now ***** ** ****** ****** ** *** ******* ** ******* and **** ***** ********* ** *******.**** *****:

"**** *** **** ***** ******, ********* ** ***** ******* ******** regions *** ****** ** * **** ****, ***** ******* *** channel ********** **** ***** ************ ** ****** ****** ****** ** the ******* ** *******"

**** ** * **** ******** *****, ** ****. ** ***** CIBC ***** **** *** **** *********** **** *** ******* ** was ****** **** ******** **********. **** *** *** *******.

******* **** ** ********* ***** *********** ***** *****, ****** ******* they *** ******* **** ***** ****** / ********* / ***** regions **** **:

*** **** **** ****** *** **** ****** ** ** **** point?

*******, *** ****** ** ******* ***** ** ****** ** **** more ************. ** ***** ******* ********* ******** *******, *** ** well ********, *** **** **** **** **** "**** ***** ** indication ** *** **** *** ******* ** ******* ** **** down ******** ** ***** ** ******."

** *** ***** ****, ******** ***** **** ******* ** ****** growth ***** ** * ******** ********* ******. **** ********* ***** to ******** ** ** ** ********* ******** **** ******** **** them ****, *** ** **** ***, ** ** ********* ** image **** **** ********* ********** ** ***********.

Undisclosed Manufacturer #1

10/12/14 05:10pm
** ******'* **** ****** ** * ***** **** ** ***** than ****** *** ****. ***** ********* ***********.

John Honovich

IPVM | In reply to Undisclosed Manufacturer #1 | 10/12/14 05:13pm

**** **** ******* ***, ********** ** **** ******* *** ** what *** *****, *****?

George Whittaker

In reply to John Honovich | 10/12/14 09:21pm

** **** *** *****-****** *** *** ****** ******** *** ********* clearly, ***.

** **** ******* ***** *** *******, ***** ***.

** *** ** ***** ****, **** **** ***** **** *****, who ***** **** ****** **, *****, ***? ***'** ** ****** fiji. *** **** ****** **** ******** *** *****.

EJ Nemec

10/12/14 09:30pm
***** ********** ** ** *******.

Undisclosed Integrator #2

10/13/14 01:23pm

** ***** ******* ******** ******* ** ****, *** * ***, and ****** *** ***** ********, *** ********* ** ******** ** my ******* ******** **** ******** ******* *** **** ***** ******* from *** **** ****** ****** ** *,*,*, *** *** *******. Everyone *** ***** *** ****** ** ****, *** **'* ********* difficult *** ***** ******* *** ******** ** ******* ***********. ** is *** ***** ******** ******** *** **** **********, *** ***'* Avigilon ***** **** ********.

* ******* *** *** ** * ******* **** ** * move **** ** ****, *** ** ** ***** *** *****, and *** *****.

Undisclosed Integrator #3

In reply to Undisclosed Integrator #2 | 10/13/14 01:27pm

******* *** ***** ***** * **** ******.

Undisclosed Integrator #2

In reply to Undisclosed Integrator #3 | 10/13/14 01:32pm

***** **** *** *******, * **** ** **** "**** ** where *** *** ****", *** * *** **** ********** ** .02 ** *** *******, *** * ***** ****** ***** ******. Had **** ****** *** ****** **** **** ** *** ** lineup, *** ******** ******** ************* ** ***** ***** ****, ** they **** *** **** *** *** ********** ***'*, *,**,** **** embedded ***. * ******* **** **** ******* ** ******* ************ too....

Undisclosed #4

In reply to Undisclosed Integrator #2 | 10/17/14 02:38pm

* **** ** ******** **** **** ***. * **** ******* selling ******** *** **** ** *** *********. **** * **** amount ** *** **** ******* *** ** *** * *** (not ******** *** ****). *** ***'* ** ****, ***** ******* were *********, ** **** ** ******** ********** **** ****. **** were ******** **** ** **** ***-*** *****. **** *** ********** had ** **** ***** ** *** * ********* ****. * would **** **** ***** **** ** **** *** ******, *** because * ******'* *** *** ******* *****, *** ******* *** picture ******* ** * ******* ****** *** ** ***.

*** **** *****'* **** ***** *** ******* ****** ** ******* space **** **** ** ** *** **** **** **** ***** cameras **** ********** ***********. ********* **** ***** ***** ******* **** Genetec, *********, *****, ***** *** ****** ***** **** *** ****.

*** **** ***** ******** *** *** ******* ******* *** **** of *** ******** *** *** ******** *** **** *** *** not ***** **. **** *** ** ******** **** *** ****, not * *********.

****** "*****" ******* *** ***** ********* ** *** ** *** solution ** **** ***** ******** ********* ** ***** *************.

Undisclosed Integrator #2

In reply to Undisclosed #4 | 10/17/14 02:59pm

******** **** ****? ** ******* *** ********* ** *******/**** ***********?

** ******* *******, *** ** **** ***** *** ******* ** wavelet *********** ******* *** ******** ****** ********** ** *** ***** vendor **********. ******* *** ****** ** *** **** ******** ***** industry ** ***, *********, ** ***** ******* ***** ******.

** *'* *** ********, **** ** *** ** ********** ** all ***** ** **** - ******* ***********.

* **** *** ** ********* ** **** *** ******* ****** take ** **** ** **** ***** ******* ***** ******** ** fall..

Undisclosed #4

In reply to Undisclosed Integrator #2 | 10/17/14 03:21pm

***, ***. * ** *********** **** **** *** ** ****. I **** ** *** *** ***** **** ***** ** ** sales ************* ***** *** ***** ******** ******** ****. **'* * great ***** **** ** ******. ***, *****, *** ******* ** the ************ ******** ** ** *** *** **** ** *** movie ********. *** **** *****.

**, *****, ** **** ** **** ******** ********** *** *******, those ******* *** *****. ** ***, **** *** ****. *** that's **** ******* ** *** ************ ******** *** **** * can **** ***** **.

***'* *** ** *****, ***** *** **** **** ****** ***** JP2K. ********* **** **********. *** ** *** ************ **** ** things ******* *** ****** ******** ******** *.*** ** * ******** with ***** ******* *****, ****** ******** ** ********, *** *****-***********- Avigilon ********** **** *** ***** **** ** ******** *** **** line.

Undisclosed Integrator #2

In reply to Undisclosed #4 | 10/17/14 03:31pm

***, * ***** ** **** ******, *** ** ** **** we *** ********* *** **** ** ***** ** ********* ******** in ****/****/****. * ***** *** *****, *** **'* ****** ******** we'll *** ******** ***** ***** ***** **** ****.

John Honovich

IPVM | In reply to Undisclosed Integrator #2 | 10/17/14 03:56pm

"**'** *** ******** ***** ***** ***** **** ****."

* ******. *** ****'* ********-*************** *** ****** *** ** ***** *********** *** ****.

Undisclosed Integrator #2

In reply to John Honovich | 10/17/14 04:02pm

***, *** *****-****** ********* ** * **** ***********, ***** **'* loss ** *******.

John Honovich

IPVM | In reply to Undisclosed Integrator #2 | 10/17/14 04:06pm

*** ***** ** ******** ******* ** *** **** **********, ********* frame ***** - *.*., *****/**, *****/**, *****/* ** ****'* **** you ******.

Undisclosed Integrator #2

In reply to John Honovich | 10/17/14 04:08pm

**** ***'* ********* ******* **** **** ** ************ ****** ****** the *** ******** ********* ******, **** ** **** ** ****** the ****** ******?

John Honovich

IPVM | In reply to Undisclosed Integrator #2 | 10/17/14 04:11pm

*** *** *** ** ** ****,***************, * ******* ********* ********* ** ****.

Undisclosed #5

In reply to John Honovich | 10/17/14 04:46pm

"* **** *** ** ********* ** **** *** ******* ****** take ** **** ** **** ***** ******* ***** ******** ** fall.."

* ******* *** ***** ** **** ********* ** ******. ** isn't *** **** ** ******* ****** **** ***** ******** ** 'Achilles ****' - ** * ****** ** *****.

** ******* ***** ** **** (***** **** ****), ******* *********** ********** **** *******, *** **** ********.

** ** *** ************ ** ************* ** ***** *********** ********* ** *** ******** ****. ** ****** **** ******* *****, if ******** ******** ************* ****** **** ***** **** ** **** always **** ************* **** ** ***** **** *********** ******* **** produce ******* **** *****.

Thumbnail usa shield

Luis Carmona

IPVMU Certified | In reply to John Honovich | 10/17/14 05:24pm

********** ****. [********** ******* **********]

Undisclosed

In reply to Undisclosed Integrator #2 | 10/17/14 07:16pm

*** *** ** ******** **** ******* *** ***** * *********** factor ** *** ******** ** ****. **** ****, ** *** hard ** ****** ****-******* **** *** ** *** ******** ** it ****'* ****** *** *****-****** *******. **** *** ** ******* of *****-********* ******* *** ******, ******** ******** ** *** *********. With *** ****** ************ ** ********-*********** ******** *** ****-**** ******** becoming **********, **** ** *** *** ***** *** ** **. It *** **** *** * *** ***** ***, *** * think **** ** ********* ** *** ******* ******* *** ** the ****-*** **** ********, ** **** ***** ***** **. *** same **** ******** ****** ** *** ****** ******** **********, ** hardware ********** ******** **** ****/**** **** ******** *** ********* ** JP2K, **** *** **/** ********.

Undisclosed Integrator #2

10/17/14 04:39pm

* ***** ******* **** ** ********* ** *** ****** *** it's ******* ** ****** ** * ** **** ****** ** different ***** *****. * ******* **** ***'* ********* ** *** onvif ****.

John Honovich

IPVM | In reply to Undisclosed Integrator #2 | 10/17/14 04:49pm

*********** ******* ** *** ****** ** **** ****** ***. ***** supports **************. *** *******, ******* ***** ******** ** ******** ******* via ***** *************.

Andrew Thomas

10/17/14 05:15pm

** ********** **** *********** ** *** ********* *** ******** ******* follow *** ******* ***** *****, ****** ** ***** ***** ***** and/or *********** *****.

Thumbnail profile pic

Ethan Ace

IPVM | 10/17/14 05:25pm

**** *** ***** ******* ** ***** ***** **************. ********* *** Bosch *** *****, **** ** * ****** ******. *** ******* streams *** ****, ******* **********, *** *** ********* ******* *** 720p, * ***. *** ******* *** *.*** (*** *** * little *** *** *** *** ** *** *****).

Login to read this IPVM report.
Why do I need to log in?
IPVM conducts unique testing and research funded by member's payments enabling us to offer the most independent, accurate and in-depth information.

Related Reports

Avigilon New COO James Henderson Profile on May 23, 2017
It has been nearly 2 years since the infamous Bryan Schmode 'resigned' as Avigilon COO. Now, Avigilon once again has a COO, promoting James...
ShotSpotter To IPO, Facing Low Revenue and Losses on May 17, 2017
A rare event for North American security manufacturers is upcoming. ShotSpotter is planning to IPO on the NASDAQ, aiming to raise $34.5...
A Marketing Home Run For Knightscope - Man Attacks Robot on Apr 27, 2017
We criticize Knightscope regularly - their lack of revenue, their trying to fool mom 'n pop investors, their associating themselves with a clueless...
Chinese 'Attacking Us From Every Direction', Says US FBI on Apr 25, 2017
"Chinese eating our lunch. Attacking us from every direction" said the US FBI's Deputy Director Andrew McCabe at the ASIS 2017 CSO Summit. .@FBI...
Axis Lowest Cost Outdoor IR Camera M2025-LE Tested on Apr 24, 2017
Axis has lagged offering low cost IR cameras while their Asian competitors have made IR standard even in their most entry level cameras. Recently,...
Beware The "Hit List" Ranking on Apr 21, 2017
The hit list. Kirschenbaum's recent newsletter complained about a 'hit list', bemoaning how a company took aim at ADT. Alas, that's the Google...
Failing at Marketing, "ALL HIKVISION PRODUCTS" On Sale on Apr 18, 2017
The ballerinas are out. The price cuts are back. Hikvision is struggling to build a premium brand (i.e., 'The Art of Video Surveillance') so...
Nvidia Deep Learning Developer Kit Examined on Apr 17, 2017
Can building a deep learning video analytics application be as easy as the typical VMS installation? Maybe not quite, but Nvidia is aiming to make...
A New Low For Knightscope - Just $3! on Apr 13, 2017
Take a look: Did you think, even for a fraction of a second, "$3 per share, could be a good deal"? If so, you should not invest in anything....
Manufacturers Cheer ISC West 2017 Performance on Apr 11, 2017
ISC West 2017 showed strong satisfaction results from manufacturers, similar to 2016's ISC West. 100 manufacturers rated their impressions of ISC...

Most Recent Industry Reports

Avigilon New COO James Henderson Profile on May 23, 2017
It has been nearly 2 years since the infamous Bryan Schmode 'resigned' as Avigilon COO. Now, Avigilon once again has a COO, promoting James...
Aura's 'Invisible Ripple' Next Gen Intrusion Detection Tested on May 22, 2017
Aura Home is a startup intrusion detection system, but it claims new, high-tech sensing that monitors the 'invisible ripples' movement creates,...
Pelco Shutting Down Clovis Line, Laying Off 200 on May 22, 2017
Pelco's Clovis facility once turned out some of the industry's most popular products. Now, the facility is mostly building "obsolete" equipment,...
IP Camera - 15 Year Shootout on May 22, 2017
How far have IP cameras come? We bought and tested 4 cameras across the past 15 years to understand how much and where performance has...
Remote Video Monitoring Providers Directory on May 19, 2017
Remote video monitoring can help integrators generate RMR plus end users lower their security costs and/or improve response to critical...
Axis Criticizes OEMs: "When You Buy An Axis Camera, An Axis Camera Is What You Get!" on May 19, 2017
When you buy a Honeywell camera, you likely get a Hikvision, Dahua or some other company's product. The same goes for easily 100 different...
Hackable 125kHz Access Control Migration Guide on May 19, 2017
Despite being one of the most popular credentials, 125 kHz credentials are easily copied and insecure as we showed in our test results, video...
Forget The Backdoor, "ALL HIKVISION PRODUCTS" On Sale on May 18, 2017
Less than 2 weeks after the Hikvision Backdoor was confirmed, Hikvision has launched a sale "ON ALL HIKVISION PRODUCTS". In this note, we examine...
Amazon Techs Installing IP Cameras Tested on May 18, 2017
In 2015, Amazon started offering video surveillance installation. Now, Amazon has made it a lot easier, with automatic add-on options and...

The world's leading video surveillance information source, IPVM provides the best reporting, testing and training for 10,000+ members globally. Dedicated to independent and objective information, we uniquely refuse any and all advertisements, sponsorship and consulting from manufacturers.

About | FAQ | Contact