Scam Research And The $86 Billion IP Camera Market

Author: John Honovich, Published on Dec 19, 2018

Scam.

The most widely cited research numbers in many, if not most, industries come from a growing number of Indian 'market research firms'. We first covered this in Beware Scam Market 'Research'.

Here is another prime example in a new 'Reuters Brand" "article" from a 'research firm' named 'Stratistics':

the Global IP Camera market accounted for $11,012.24 million in 2017 and is expected to reach $86,821.40 million by 2026 growing at a CAGR of 25.8%

$86 billion and a CAGR of 25% over the next 8 years is crazy.

The IP camera market is growing now in the range of 5 - 10% annually. It is obvious to people in the market because they can see how they are their competitors are doing. It is a net growth market but nowhere close to 25% overall. And it is a mature market so it not as if, in the future, it is about to 'take off'.

As an example, IHS, one of the few companies that legitimately tries to estimate video surveillance market has the total market (which is majority IP cameras with NVRs, VMS, storage, etc.) at just 7.5% CAGR for the next 5 years:

Due to the power of compounding, the difference between a 7.5% CAGR and a 25% CAGR is massive. With 7.5% CAGR, in 5 years, a market grows a modest 45% but with 25% CAGR, the market grows 5x more to ~300%.

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Scam 'Research'

It is patently obvious what is happening here. The 'research firm', Stratistics lacks even basic understanding of the market. From the report sample they provided, the errors are glaring:

3 of the 10 largest IP camera sellers - Avigilon, Hanwha and Uniview (combined they sell $1+ billion in IP cameras) - do not make the list while various companies who have minimal IP camera revenue, do make the list.

And their "company profiling", like the example below, consists of googling and pasting generic information from companies with no analysis nor insights into what the company is doing in IP cameras:

Benefit? Marketing By Journalists And Execs

These 'market research' firms have been able to exploit the demand by careless journalists and executives that simply want a big number to 'prove' what they are talking or writing about is important. "Invest in us - the IP camera market is growing 25% CAGR and will soon be $80 billion!" etc., etc.

Happens In Various Markets

IP cameras are simply one of many markets that these firms 'research', e.g., from Stratistics homepage today,

'Experts' in amino acids, EMR systems, protection relays and more.

But these have real downsides. Professionals are creating false expectations and literally 'fake news' by citing these as facts, rather than what they are - clever, but deceptive, attempts to sell book reports and consulting.

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