Evolv Slashes Guidance, Stock Plummets
Evolv's stock plummeted today, nearly 40% after slashing its revenue guidance less than three months after admitting the SEC is investigating it.
While Evolv has had a challenging few months (including its Co-Founder apologizing for its CEO's remarks), these Q1 2024 financial results and projections for the rest of the year show a material impact Evolv's marketing and performance problems are having on the company. For background, for example, see Evolv Supports Missing Guns To Reduce False Alarms.
This note examines the financial results and comments from Evolv's executives to investors.
Stock **** **%+
*****'* ***** ** **** **** **** 30% **** *******, ***** ** * severe ****, **** ******** ** *****'* own **** **********:
*****'* ***** ** *** **** **% since ***** ****** ** ****:
*** ******* ***** ***** ** ***** to *** ***** ***** *** ***-**** lows **** ** *** ** ****.
Lowered ********
***** ******* *** ******** *** **** revenue ** $** ******* **** **** it ********** **** ********* **** **** two ****** ***:
Admits *** ******
*****'* *** **** ******* ******** **** they *** ****** ************* *******, ****** regulatory ********* *** ******* ***** ********:
** ********,we **** ********* **** ** ******* ** *********** ******* ** *** ****** *********** ******* ** *** *** *** *** *********. **** ********** *** *******. Some ************* **** **** ******* as customers work to satisfy the incremental due diligence requirements related to, among other things, these regulatory inquiries and the slanted ******** **** ****** ***** ******* we have discussed on previous calls. While our win rates are up, year over year, we see deals taking longer to close.
While ***** ******* *******, **'** ***** ** ** **** ******** ** *** **** **** *******. [Emphasis added]
"Regulatory ******** *** ********** ***** *****"
*****'* *** ********** ** *** ******* on*** *******'* ************* ** *** *** and *** ********* *** ** **** ******** ****:
** ******** ** **** **** *** FTC ** **** ******** ***** ****, and ****'** ******** ************* *** *********** responsive ** ***** *******. **'** **** working **** *** *** *** ***** work ** ***** ** *** ******** stages.
** ******* ***** **** ***** ************** have ********** *****'* ***** ***** *** emphasized "*********** ** *** ***********" *** how *** ******* ** *** ***** how *** ************** **** ******** *** business:
**** **** *** **** **** ** our ********? ****, ** *******the ********** ******** *** ********** ***** *****. It does not appear to be impacting our win rate.
** **a ****** **** ***** ** ** **** ****** ** ***. There *** **** ************* ** ***** ** **** *** ******* ** *********** ******* ** *********** ** *** ***********. It *** *******, **** ** * *** **** *********** ** ******* ********* ** *** **** ****. Since possible deal slippage is by its nature uncertain. For that reason. We think it's prudent to be a bit more cautious in our annual outlook. [Emphasis added]
**** ************, *** ***** ***** ** education ** ****** **** ***** *********, the ******* ****:
* ***** *** **'* ****** *** board **** *** ****** ******* **** been ******** ** ********* ******* **** end ** ***** ****** ******. *** health **** ***** ***** ** ***** about **** ******.
40% ***********
*** *******'* ***, ***** ******, **** investors **** ********* *** ****** **** questions *** **** **** ****** ** work ******* "*********** *** ********* ************." He ***** **** ***** ** *** rushing **** ** ****** *********:
*** ******** ********* ******** ** *** quarter ******** **** *** *******sales ***** ********** ** ***** **% in Q1 of 2024 to five months, compared to three months in Q1 of 2023.
**** ** ***** ************* **** ******* as ********* ****** ** ******* *** incremental *** ********* ************ ******* ** regulatory ********* *** ******* ********, ***** other ******, **** *** ****** ***** outlets, ** ********* ** ******** *****.
********* *** ****** **** ********* ** they **** ***** *** ******* *** buying *******. ** *** ****** *** going ** **** *** ********* ******* that ******* ** **** ********. [******** added]
*** ****** **** ***** **** **** "have * *** ** ********** ** the ******** ** ***** *********."
* **% ******** ** **** * short **** ****** ** ***********. *** key ******** **** **** ****** ******* later ** *** **** ** ******* this ** ****** * *****-**** ********** or ***** ****** ** * *** lower ***** ****. ***** *** *** investigation **** ******* * *** ****** ago, ** ******* ** ** *** early ** ****. ****, ** ** publicly *********** **** *** *** (*** FTC) ************** **** ******.
Education *********
** ******** ** *** ***** ********, Evolv ******** **** ** ** ********* greater ********* ** *******:
**'** **** **** *********** ********* ** haven't **** ******. **'** **** **** and **** ******* *********** ** **** of *** *****. * ***** *****'* a ***** ********** ******* ** **** we're *****, ** *** *********** **** the ********* *********** ** **** ****, but **** * ******* ***********, ** are * *******-****** *******.
** ****, ******, **** *** ****amenable ** *******, ************ ** *** ****** ******* where there's a lot of volumes, so we have actually gone down that path to work with our customers and prospects to actually ensure that we're mitigating *** ***** ******* **** ** *** *********** *** *****. [Emphasis added]
** ******* **** ** *** ****** because ** *** *** / *** but ******* ******* *** ************ ********* that ** *** *** ***** ******** Evolv ******** ** ****, **** ***** have ** **** ******* *******, *.*., see:***** ******** ******* **** ** ****** False ******. ***, ***** ***** ********* *** even ***** ** *** ** *********** *-**** ***** *******, ***** ******* *****'* ************ ******* value ***********.
******* ** *********, ***** **** ** is *** ****** ********* ** ***** verticals:
** ***** *********, **'** ***** **** to ******** ******* ******* ** *** value **'** *********. *** ********** **** we *** *******; *** ********* ***************, still *** ******* ** *********** *** pricing ********.
Fewer *** ********* *** *** *********
***** ****** ***** *** ********* *** new ********* ** ** **** **** than * **** ***:
*****'* ** & ** **** ******* were **** ****, ** ********* ** the *******'****** ******* *** ** & ****-**** 2023:
Reach ******** ******** ****** ** ** ****
******* ******** *** ********, *** *******'* CEO, ***** ******, **** ** ** still ** ***** ** ***** ******** EBITDA ** *** ***** **** ** 2025:
**** ****, ** ****** ********* ** reaching ******** ******** ****** ** *** second ******* ** ****.
*********, ** *** ***** ****, ****** can ** ******** ** ******* ******* or *********** / ******* *****. *** company *** ********* **** ********:
**'** ***** *** ***** ** ****** maintainingjudicious ******** ******, as we have in the past. We're going to really be looking to ensure that we stay ** **** **** ** ************* that we announced about a year ago. [Emphasis added]
Low *****
*** *******'* *** ***** ******* ********** on *** **** ******* ** **** is * *** ***** *** ***** and ***** *** ********* *** *****:
** **** **** ** *** ** a *** ***** *** **** *******. Q1 ** ********** * *** ******* for **. ** *** **** ** the ********** ** *** ***** ***** have **** *** **** ***** *** a **** ****** ** **** ******, actually ****** ** *** ***** *********. We're ******** ** *** **** **** up * ***** *** **** ** some ********** ***** **** **. **** said, ***'** *****, *** *** **** we're ******* ******** ** *** *,*** to *,*** **** *****, ** *,*** to *,*** *** *** **** ** we **** ******* ***** ***** ***** extensions *** **** ** *** ********** overhang **** **'** **** ***** *******.
**'** *** **** ************* **** ********* when ** *** ** *** ***** with **** *** ** ** ***** now ** ****'** ***** ******* ***** buying *****. *** ************* ** ****, and **'** ******* ** * *****; it's **** ****** * ****** *** more **** **** **** **** **.
*** *** ***** ******* **** ***** 79% ** ** *** *** ***** that ** **** ******* ** ** we're ***** ******* **** ****, **'* just ***** * ****** *** ****** right *** *** ** **** ** the, * ***** ***slanted ***** and regulatory ******** that we're dealing with. [Emphasis added]
Customers ********* **** **** ***********
***** ****** **** **** ********* *** for "*******" ********* *** **** ****** to **** **** **** ******* ***** Express *** "******** ************":
*'* **** ** ******* * ***** update ** *** *********** *********. ** believe *****'* * *********** ****** *** AI ***** ******* ********* **** * few *********** ******* **** *** ********* and *********. *** ********* ******** **** and ********** ********** ** ***** ******** our ********** ******** ** *** **-***** weapons ********* ******.
***** *** ****** *** **** *** multiple *******, ** ******** ** *** customers ****** *** ******** *** *** detection ************, ****** ***** ** ***-**** experience *********** **** ******* ******** ************** and ******* ********** ************ ******* ******** upgrades. **** ********, **'** **** ******** more ****-**-**** *****, *** **'** ****** revisitation ** ********** **** *************. **'** had ** ***** **** ****** ********* or ********** **** ************* ** ********* and ************ ******, *** **** **-******** with ** *** ********* ***** ******** deployments **** *****.Initially, ****** ***** *** *** * *******, **** ******* ******** **** ****** * ********** *** ************* *** *****/***** ***** ******** ******, but we're ********** * ***** **** ** ***** *******, due ** *** ******** ************. This is not a one-quarter phenomenon. [Emphasis added]
** ***** ** *******, **** ***** be * ******* ******-**** *********. *******, Evolv **** *** * ************* ****, which ** ******* ***** ********* **** eventually ****** ** *****-**** ******* ** they ***** *****'* ****** *********** ************, though **** ** ******, ** *** short ****, ** *****'* ******* *-****, non-cancellable *********.
****, ***** *** *** ******* ****** trading *** ** *** **** *** Evolv,********* ** **** ****. ** ******* ****** ** ******* of *.* ******* *** ******** ***** of ~** *******, ***** ******** **** both ** **** *** ****.
* ******* ***** ** *** ****** biggest ********** *** ******* (** ****) for *****.
**** **** ******* ******** ** - as ** **** **.**% ****, *** the ******* ** *** **** ****.
*** * *** ****** ***** *** entire ******:
***** ***** ****** **% *****:
***** **** **% **** *** **** week:
****, *** **** * ** **** swing ******* ** * *****, * company ***** *** ***** ******.
***** ***** *** *** **.**% ***** than *** *** ******, ********** ******* sentiments **** *********: