Evolv Aims For $1 Billion Revenue By 2030
Evolv has set itself an ambition target - to more than 10x its revenue, achieving $1 billion annual revenue by the end of this decade.
In this note, we examine Evolv's projection and the main drivers that could help or hurt its ambitions.
Billion ****** **********
** *** *******'* *** **** ******** Day, *** *** **** *** ************ for * ******* *******:
**** ***********, ** *** ****** ** a ******* ******* ** ****** ********* revenue ** **** ******** *** ******* sales **** ***** ********* *********** ***** revenue.
*** ***** ***** ***** *** ***** of ****** ****** ** ******* ****, which ***** *** ** *********** * ~40% **** **** * *****:
Positive *******
***** *** ******* ******* **** *** working, **** ** *******, ** ***** work ******* *** $* ******* ** ARR ****, *********:
- **** ** ****** ********, ********* ** Schools
- ****** *******
- **** *********, **** ***** *** ********
- ****** **** *** "********* ************" *****
- ************ ** **********
Rise ** ****** ********, ********* ** *******
** *** **** * *****, **** shootings **** ******* *******, ***** *** helped ******* ****** ********* *********, ********* Evolv. ** ** ******** **** **** shootings ******** ** ******** ** *** same **** **** *** **** * years. ** *** ****** **** *******, this ***** ** * **** *** Evolv.
*** *******, ****** ******** ******* ******** * ******** **** * ***** ago:
********,********** **** ********* ******* ******** ** ****** ********* per ****:
***** **** ** *****'* ******** ** schools *****, **** **** ******** *** ~300 ****** *********, **** *** ************ majority *** *** ****** *****. ** school ********* ******** ** * ******* pace, ***** ***** ********** **** * multi-hundred ******* ****** ****** ******** **** in *******.
*******, ************ ** *** *****, ******* in *******, ** ***** ******* ***** result ** *** ********, **** ********* declining *************. ***'* ******* ** ***** reasonably ******* ******* ** ***'* ******* toward *** ****** ** **** *********.
More *********, **** ***** *** ********
***** *** ** *********** ** ************* grow *** ****** ** ***** *** customer.
*** *******, *** ********'* ******* **** has **** ********* **** * ***** to *, ** *** ****** **** during *****'* *** **** ******* ***.
**** ******* **** ********* **** ******* with *****'* ********, ***** ** ********* possible *** ***** ****** ** ** examine *** ******** ******* *******.
Higher ******
** ******** ** ******** *** ***** margins, ***** ***** ******* *** *****, with ***** ********* ** *** **** year, ** *** **** ******* **** during ***** **** ******* ***:
******* *** **** ** **** ****, that **% [***** ******* ** ************ revenue] ** ********** **three ***** ******* **** ****. *** ****** *** ****** **** **** ***. That's why I'm talking about 60%+ [gross margins] in the subscription lines. [emphasis added]
** ******* ** ** **** ** Evolv **** ***** ****** **** ****, this ****, *** ** ** ******** plausible *********** **** ** ******* *** actively ******* *** ******* ** ******** security ******* *********** ******* **********, *** Evolv ** ********** **** **** ** provides *** **** *****-**** ** *** market. *** *******, **'* **** ******* school ************** ***** **** *** ********** ************* ******* ** ****** ****** ************ capabilities **** ***** *** ****** ********* screening ******* *****'* ******** ***** *** more ********* **** ****'*.
********, ** ******** ********** ********* ****** the *** **** ******* ***, ***** is ******** ******* ** * *** product, *** *** *** *******, **** plan ** ***** *** ******* *** its ******** ****** **** *** *** current *******. ** ******** **** **** about ******* *** ***-*****, *** ** likely **** ** ****** ** ****.
Switch **** *** "********* ************" *****
** ****** ****,***** ********* **** ***** ** ****** sell "********* *************"** **** (******* ******** **** + monthly ***), ********** ********* *** *******'* ARR.
***** **** ******* ******* ***** **** roughly *** **** ******* **** *** first **** *****, *** "********* ************" option **** **** * **% ******* monthly *** ($*,*** **. $*,*** *** August **** *******), **** ************ **** to *****'* ***.
***** ******** **** ** ****, *** company's ******* ******* **** ********** ** only ~*% ** ***** *******, *** subscription ******* **** ** **% - which *** *********** ******* **** **% and **%, ************, ** ****, ** the ******* **** *** *******'* ***** deck ***** *****:
Improvements ** **********
***** *** ************* ****** *** ******* technical ******** ** *** ******* ** hide. ** **** **** * **** engineering ************ *** ** ***** ********* with ********* ********** ** *********** ******* for ******* ********* **** ** ********** scale **** ******* **** ** ******** in **** *&*.
** *** ****** **** ***** *** either (*) ****** ******* ******* ******* while *** ******** ** ****** ***/** (B) ****** ***** ****** ** ***********, water *******, ***. ***** *** ******* actual *******, ***** ***** ************* ************* itself **** *********** *** ****** ** eliminate ****** ******** ** ** ******.
**** ** ********* ***** *****'* ******* to ******* **** **** *** ******* generation ** ********** *** * ** 8 ***** ** ***** **** ****, raising *** *********** ** * *** generation **** ******** **** ** ***** issues. *** *******, ***** ******* *** a ******* ****** ****** "****" *** replaced ** **** "*******", *** ******* generation * ***** ***. ** ***** could ******* * ***** **********, **** could ************* **** *** ****** *******.
Negative *******
** *** ***** ****, ***** *** a ******* **** *** ****** *****'* ambitions:
- ********/****** ** ***** *********
- **** ** ************ **** ********* *********, Negative *****
- **** ** ************* ************
- *********** ******
- ********** *** ********** ************** ******* *****
Injuries/Deaths ** ***** *********
********* ** ********** ******* ** ***** for ******* ********* ***** ***** ******** about *****'* ***********. ** ****, ***** are *** ******** ******** ********* ** Evolv's *********, ********** ******** ** ***** **** ********* ********* ** * ***** **** ** Pennsylvania.
***** ** ** ***** ******* ******* the *** ***** **** ******* ***** in * ***** ****, **** ********* that ***** *** *********** ** *** day ** *** ******** ** ***** and *** *** ****** * ***** used *** ********.
*** **** ***** ***** ********, *** more ****** **** **** ******* *** missed *** ** ** ******** **** more ****** *** ******* ** **** killed. **** ***** ****** ** ******* negative ***** *** ******** **** ***** hinder ******* ***** ********.
Lack ** ************ **** ********* *********, ******** *****
******* ***** ********** ******** **** ************ on *** ******'* ************, ***** *** multiple ********* **** ***** ****** ** mention ************ ********* ** ****** ***/****** ****** *********** *** ***** ************ (****** ********* ******), ** **** ** ***** **** outlets, *** ********* ** **** - see***** ***** ******** **** ********, ***** Carolina, *** ****.
*********, *** **** **** ******* **** report ********* **** *** ******** ****** district,***** ****** ** $* ******* ******** with *****, *** *** ******** ***** ***** detection ************ *** **** *******:
***** *** *** ***** *** ***** after ***** ******* ** ****, ***** was ********* **** ***** ******* "******* detection" ************, *** ******* **** ** shifting ** **** ********, ***** *** negatively ****** *****'* ********** ***, *********, ability ** **** *** ******.
Lack ** ************* ************
** ** ************* ************ *** ****, it **** ** ****** *** ***** to ******* *** **** **** ** its *******, *********** **** ******* ************ metal ********* *** ** ***** **** that **** **** ********** **** *** false ***** ***** ** *****.
*** **** *******, ********* *** ********** **** *** ******* Metal ********* ******.
************, *****'* **** **********, ****, **** has* "******* ********" ****** ************ *** ******* *********** ******** ~**% ****.
Competitive ******
************, *****'* *********,**************, **** **** *** ******** ** publicly ******** ***** ******** ******* *****, as ***** ********* ** *********** ***-********, however, ** **** *******, ***** *** lose ********* *****.
************,****** ***(******** ******* *** ************) ** ******* Evolv's ********** **** *** ******* *** stadium *** ************* ***** ***** **** Evolv. *******, ** ******* **** **** is **** ** * *********** ****** to ***** **** ****** ***.
*** **** ********** ** *** ***** competitors, ********** ********* ** *********** ********** *****.
*********, *** ****** * ****** *******, the **** ******* *********** ******, ***** the ********** ** ******* *******. ** Evolv ********* * **** ***** ** a ******* ******* ** ****** *******, we ***** ****** **** **** *********** competition ** *****, ***** ***** ***** both ******* *** ****** *********.
*******
***** ********* *** ** *********** ** achieve **** *** *********** *********** ****** about *** ****** ** **** ********* (will ** ************* **** ** ****), how **** ***** ****** *** **********, and *** ***** *********** ******* (** not).
** ***** *********, ** ***** **** itself ******* **** ******* * $* per ***** ** ** *** **** year. *******, ** ***** ***** **** pace, ** **** ***, $**+ *** share ** ********* ********.
*** ***** ********** ****** ** *** overall **** ** *** ******** - see******* ****** ******** **** *** **** For ***** **** ****.
**** ******** ** ~$**,*** *** ***** Express ** ~$***,***
*'* ******* *** ** *****'* **** that *** ***** - ******** ***** can **** ** ***'** ***** **** math **** *** - *** ***** one ***** **** **** *** **** of *** ******* *** ** *** price *****, ***** ** *** ********.
***** ***** ** * * **** term, *** **** ***, ***** ************* and ******* ******** **** ** *, 3 ** * **** *******. *** JCI ********* **** ******* *** *** same ***** **** *****? **** ***** be ** ****** ** ****** ******* contract **** **********. *** ** ** were *** ********* *******, ** *** different **** *******, **** *** ****** is ****** *** * **** **********, and ********* *** * **** ****** to ***** **** * ******* ** 11x **** ********* **** *** **********'* product, ** *** ********* **** ******.
*'* *** **** ** ****** *****, that's ***** *** - *** *** statement ** *** ******* ** ** 11x ***** ***** ** ********** **********.
"*******, ************ ** *** *****, ******* in *******, ** ***** ******* ***** result ** *** ********, **** ********* declining *************."
**** **** ***** ****** ** **** as * ********** ********* ***** ****** and ***** ***** ** *******.
* ***'* ******* **** ** ******** - ********* *** **** **** **** competes **** ***** ** ********, *** in ** ********** ** *** * +10x ***** *****.