25% China Tariffs Finalized For 2019, 10% Start Now, Includes Select Video Surveillance

Author: Charles Rollet, Published on Sep 18, 2018

A surprise move: In July, when the most recent tariff round was first announced, the tariffs were only scheduled for 10%. However, now, the US government has finalized this round, announcing that “starting January 1, 2019, the level of the additional tariffs will increase to 25 percent.”

While 10% will start Monday, September 24, 2018, in just over 3 months, it will rise to 25%.

In this note, we examine:

  • Final list including surveillance products impacted
  • Unclarity of specific categorization
  • Failed exemption efforts, including SIA
  • How inventory programs attempt to mitigate this
  • Hikvision manufacturing in USA potential
  • Broader strategy to 'contain' China
  • Impact on shifting supply chains outside of China
  • Further escalation possible

* ******** ****: ** ****, **** *** **** ****** ****** round ******** *********, *** ******* **** **** ********* *** **%. *******, ***, the** ********** *** ********* **** *****, ********** ****“******** ******* *, ****, *** ***** ** *** ********** ******* will ******** ** ** *******.”

***** **% **** ***** ******, ********* **, ****, ** **** over * ******, ** **** **** ** **%.

** **** ****, ** *******:

  • ***** **** ********* ************ ******** ********
  • ********* ** ******** **************
  • ****** ********* *******, ********* ***
  • *** ********* ******** ******* ** ******** ****
  • ********* ************* ** *** *********
  • ******* ******** ** '*******' *****
  • ****** ** ******** ****** ****** ******* ** *****
  • ******* ********** ********

[***************]

Video ************ ********* ***** ***** ****** ****

******** **** ** *************** ***** ********** ***** ***** * *********** ***** ** ***** surveillance *********:

(“*****” ***** “*** ********* ********* ** ********”).

Exact ******** *******

***** ***** ***** ***** ***** ************ ********, ** ** ******* exactly ***** ****. ***** ***** **** **** ***** ************ *********, like ****.**.** ** “******* ***** ***** ***** *******,” *** **** out ** **** ****** ****. * **************** ************ *** ******* ***** “****** ********* ********” *** ******* ** specific *******.

Failed

************, ******* ***** ************ ******* *** **** ** ** ******** by **** ***** ** *******.

***** ***** ************** ********* ** ****, ******* ************* ****** ***** **** ** **** ******* ** the ** ***** ************** ****** *** ********** ************ ** ******** 8525.80.50 ** “******** *******.”******* *** *** ********* * ******** ********** (*********) ***** ******** ******** ** ***** ****.**.** *****“***** **************** ******** **** ** *** *******, *** *********, *** the *********** *********.”

************,*** ***** ******** ******** ******** **** *** ****** ****.

Inventory ******** ******

** ****** ***** ****** ********* ** ** ********* ** **** ordered ***** ********* ** ******* ** **** ******** **** * move. ******* *** **** ******* ** *** ******** ******** *** US, *** ******* **** ***** ******* ******* ** **********. ******, depending ** *** **** ***** ***** ************* *******, ** ***** eventually ****** ** ********* ** **** ****** *********.

Hikvision ************* ** *** *********

** * **** **** ********'* ****, ********* ********* *** *********** ** ************* ** *** ** if ******* **** ** **%. ***, **** *** *** ****** and ********* *********, ** ** *** ***** ** **** ***** still ******** **** *** **% ** * *********** ****** ***** to ******* *************

Shifting ****** ****** ******* ** *****

******* ******** ****** (**** ********* *** *************) **** ********* **** IPVM ******** ***** ****** ****** / ************* *** ** ***** due ** *** ******** ***** ******* *** ********* ***** / US ********. ******, **** **** ** * ****** ***** **** ******** ********:**-***** ***** *** ******* ******* ** ****** ******.

**** ******* ****** *** ******** ******** ******* ********* $*** ******* ** * ******* *******, ***** ** ****** ** **** **** ** * ********** trade ***.

Broader ******** ** '*******' *****

**** ***** *********, ********* ***** ** *****, *** ************ ****** the ** ******* ** * **** ** '*******' ***** ** a ***** ******* *** **, ** ******** ******* ******:

*** ***** ******** ** **** * ***** *** *** ****** battle *** ********* ******* *** *** ******. **** *** ***** pointing ** * ******* ********** ********** ** ***** ****, ***** that *** **** ** ******** ************ ** ** *****, ***** is ******** ** **** ** ** ** ********

Further ********** *******

***** *** *** ********* * ******** ******** ** *** *** but *********** ** *********.

*******, ** ***** **** *********, ********* ******** ********** ** ** “***** *****” ** *** ***** *** *** which ***** ****** ******* ** ******* $*** ******* ***** ** Chinese *****.

**** ***** ****** ** ******* ** $*** ******* ** ******* imports, ** ****** *** ******** ** ******* ******* ** *** US ** **** (************ ***** $*** *******.)

**** ***** ********* ********* **** ****** ** *** ** ***** Chinese-made ******** ***** ********** *******, ********** ** ******** ********. *********** and ************ ****** **** ****.

Comments (36)

*******, **** *********.

*'* ********* **** ****** ****** ****** *** ** ***** ** the ***** **** *** ******** *** ***** ************ *************. *******, cybersecurity, ***** ******, ******* **** *** ************* *** **********, ******* branding, ***. *** ******* ** **** ** ******* ** ************ elsewhere.

** ** *********** ** **** **** ****** ***** ****** ** occurring *** *** **** * ***** ********** ** *******, **** within ***** ** *** **** ************* ****** *** ** ******** (where ***** ****** ****) **** *** ****** **** ******. ******* and ********* **** ******* * ***, ******* **** ******** *** go ***** *** ** ********* ********.

* **** **** ** ** ***** * ***** ************* ******* assembly ***** ** ***** (*** ***** ****** ******, *** ***** be **** *** ******* ** ******).

****** *** *********!

*** **, * ********* ****** *** ** ****** ****** ** about **% *** * ****** ** *.*%.

****** * ****** ** ********* **** ******** **** **** *** can **** ******** ** *** *******, *** ***** ** ** a ***** **** **** *****'* **** ******.

** ******** *** ** ***** ** ***** ******** *** ****** wouldn't **** ** ******, ** **'* ***** ** **** ********'* wallet ****** *** *** ******* **** *** **** *** **** enough ** *******, *** *** **.

** ******** *** ** ***** ** ***** ******** *** ****** wouldn't **** ** ******

**'* **** ****:

** ***** *** *** ** ******* ********* ***** ********** *** block *** ******* *********

****** *** ****** ** *** * ******* *****, *** ****** forced ***** ****** ** **** ********** ** ****** ** *******.

** **** ***** **'* **** ** ********** *** ***** **** times. * ****** ***** **** *** ** ***** **** ********* :)

*** ** *** ** ******* ** **** *** **********. *** work ** ** ******** *******. ***'* *** ** ******** ******* opens **** **** ** *** ** *** ***********. *** *** Security ******* **** ********* **** ***** ********** *** *** **** for **** **** *****. ** ******** ******* ***** **** *** I *** "****** *** ****** ** *** **** ** ******** Systems" ** **** ***********.

*** **** ********** ** **** *** *** *** *** ********* from ** ******* ** *** ******* ***** *** *** ********* from **. ******* *** **** *** ** ********** **** *** WTO.

* *** **** ******* ****, *** * ***'* *****.

* ***'* *** *** ******** *********, *** * *** **** a ******* **** * * **** ***** *** ***** *******. They ******* **** *** *******, *** ******** *** ***** *** prices *** ****.

** ***** * ******* ******? ***
** ***** * **** ********* ******? ***

* ****** ** *** ***** ** ******* *** *******.

*** ** **** ***. *** ** *** ********? **** **** for *** ****** ** ** *** *% *****, ** ** we **** ***** ** **** ** *** ** *** *** cheapest.
*** ** *** **** *********? **. *** ** *** ****? I ******* **.
***** ** ******* *** ***** ***** (**** ********* ****** *****) we **** *** **********. ******** * ****** ********* ** ******* or * ********* ***** ** **** ***** *** ********** ** send ** *********** *********.
******* *** ********* ***** ******* ** ******** **** **** **** to *** ******.

****'* **** ***** * **********, *** ****'* **** * *** of *** ******* ********* **** *****.

** ** *** ******* ***** ********* *****, *** "****" ******** makes ** **** **** ******* ******.

*** * ****** ******* *** ***** *** ***** * **** more ********* ******** ********* ** ******* ******** *** ******* ************* are ****** ********* ** **. *** *** **** *** **** a ******* ******* *** *** ***** ************ ***** *** ********.

* ******* ******* **** ** *** *** ** **** **** states *** **** ********* ** *** ** ***** ** **** others. **** ****** *** ****** **** **** *** ********* ** companies ** **** **** **. *** **** * *** *** abatement? * **** ** ********, ******* * **** **** ** pay ***** ****** ***, **** **** *****. ******* ***** *** fair ***** ** **. ********* ******** ****** ******* ***** ** level *** ******* *****??

**** **** **** *** ******* ** ***** ** ****** *********.

***** *** ***** * **** **** ********* ******** ********* ** compete ******** *** ******* ************* *** ****** ********* ** **.

**** **** '*****' ********* *** *** **** *** **** *****.

**'* **** *** *** * ****** ** *** *** ** stronger, ***** *** ** **** ********, *** * **** ** anyway *** **** ****** ************ ** *** '********' * ****** structure **** ***.

*** ******** ** * *** *******. ** ** *** ******* about ********* *****, ** *** ******* ** ** ****** **. Rather ** ****** ** **** ********* * ********. ******* *** a ********.

**** ** * ****** *******. *** ***** ****** ********* **** in *** **** ******** ****** ** *** ******** *******. *******, the ******** ****** **** ******* ***** ******* ***** ***** ****** facilities, ****** **** *******, ***** ********** ***** ****** ********, ***** means **** ****. ***** **** ***** ** **** ** *********** complete ****** **** ****** ** ****** * ****** ****** ** receive **** ***** ***** *** ************ ***** **** ***** ** their ******** *******.
******* ** ****, ****** ** ***** *** **** **** ** points ** ** *** ***** ** *** ***** ****** ********* before * **** ** **** ****?

** ** *** ******* ***** ********* *****, ** *** ******* if ** ****** **.

***, ***'** **** **** ****** *** **** ** ** ***** them. ********* ****** ********* ************ ******* ** ***** ***** **** money :)

******* ****** *** ********* / **********. *** ** ***** *********** here? *** *** **** ******* *******...

* **** ** ** ** ********** ** ** **** ** encouraged ** ************ ** *** *** **** ***** **. ******** do *** *********, *** **** ** ** ********.

*********** * ****** **** ***** ***** ******* ****** *** *** more ********** **** * ****** ******. *** ******** *** ******** player ** ***** *** ******* ***** ** ****** *** ****** player * **** ***** ** **** ****** ** ******** ****** you **** ***** *******. ** *** ************* **** ** *** the ****** ****** ** ************ *****.

********* ***********, ****** ** ******** ********* **** ****** **** ***** dropping ********:

******** ********* *** * **** ** **.*% *** *.*% (***** 8521900020)
******* *** * **** ** *.*% *** *.*% (***** **********)

***** *** *** ******** *** **** ***!

** *** ***** ** *** * *** *** **** ******** whatever ******** **** ***** ******* ***** *** *** ******? ***'* hope *** ****** ** ***** *********** ** ** *** *** going **** ** **********.

** *** ***********, ** ******* *** **** *** *** ******* of **** ***** ***. **** *** ** *********** *** **** their ****** ********** ** *-**, ** *** *********** ***** ****, to *** **** ******* ******* *** *** ****** **** ****** to ***** ****, * **** *** **** ***. * ****** of * *** ******* * *** ** ****** ** **** world.

****** ** ******* ** ****** **** **** *** ********** *** not **** *****, ** *'* *** ******* ***** *-** ***********.

*** *.*. ** * *** ******, *** ***** *** ****** of ***** ****** *** ***** *** ******* ********. *** *** is ~**-**% ** *** ****** ************ ******, ***** ** ~**%, few ** ************* **** ****** ** *** *** ** ** export ******, *** **** ** **** ***** ******* **** ** a ***** *** **** ** *** ****.

** **** **** ***** **** **** ** ******, *** **** will **** **** *********, *** *.*. ***** ******* ******* *** the **** **** **** ****** ****, ***** ******* **** *** harm ***** ** **** ** **** **** **** ******** ************ and ***********.

* ***** **** ****, ****** ** ***** ********* **** ****** tariffs.

#*, ** **** ** **** * '***** *** ****' *** is *********'* ***** ***** **** **% ***** *** ******* *** other ** ****** *** ****** ** *** **** *** ******?

********* ***** *** ******* ***** ****** ***, ********** ** *****. If *** **** ** *** ***** ***** *** **** *** it **** ******* **% ** ****, ****** *****. *** ***** i ** ********* ** ** **** ********* ** *** ******, has ****** ********* *** ***** ****** ******* ** ******** *** US *******. *** **** **** ** ** ***** * ****, but *** **** * ***** ****.

*** **** * ***** ****.

'***** ****' ** **** ****, ***'* ***** **** ** ****. You **** *** *** *** ******* ** *** * '***** pot **** ** *** ****' *** **** *** **** * was ********** **.

** **** *** *** **** ** ****** ** * **** it ** *** ********* ********* *** *** ******** ** * 'small *** **** ** *** ****'.

***, *** **** **** ***** ** **** *********** **** *** paint. ** *** *** **** **** ** *******, ** ** that *** ***** ***** ****** ** ** ***** ****** *** month ******. *'** ******* *** **** **** *****:

*** *** ** *** ****** *********** ** ******* **** ***** ***** ****** *****. *** ** ***** **** ** ** **** ***** ****** then **** ** ***** **** **** **** **** * ***** later, * ** *** ****. ****** **** ********* ** **** period, ****** *****.

*** ***** *****, *** ***** ******-*** **** ***** ** **** is ****** ********* * ****** *****, *** ********** ********** * stock *****, ** **** ****** ** ********* ***** **** ***.

******. ******* **** **** ********** *** *********.

*** * *** ** ********* ******.

***, ** *** **** *** *** ** ********* ***** *******, Avigilon******* ** *********** *** ** *** ****** ******** ** "******* ************ ** the ***". *** **** ** ***-******* ************* ****** ********* ** this *********.

******* ***** *** ** ***** *** **** **** * *** they ***.

******* **** **** ******** ********* **** **** ****.

** ****** ** **** ****** *** **** ** ********* *** cameras **** ****** *** **** *** ***** ** ***** *******. Not ***** **% *** ** **** ** **** **.*% ** recorders ** ** ********.

*** *********** ***** **** *** ******** **** **** ** **** the **** % *** ********* **** ****** *** ******* ************ for ********* *** ******* *** **** ****** *** ******** ** electronics.

* *** ** ********* **** ****** **** *** **** % was **** ** ********* ***** *** *****/********* ** **** **** board *** **** ** ******** ******* ** ** ***** *** 13.9% **** ** *** ******* ****'* ******** **** ***** ******** and **** **** **** *** *% (**** **** ***** ** now **** *%)

** ***** *** ********* *** *** ****** *** **** **** by ******** **-******** ******* *** **** ********** *** ******** ** the ***!

*** **** *** ****** *** ***** ** **** *** *** 3 ** ***** *** ********* ** *** * ***** ******* if *** **** ** **** ** *** **** ** ******** products ** **** ***** ** ** **** **** *** ****. Yes ** ** **** ******* *** **** *** *** ***** increases **** *** ******* ********* ** *** * **** **********!

***** ********* *** ******* ** *********** *** ******* ******, ** they *** *** ****** **** *** ******* *** ** *** local ********.

** * *** ** ** ***** *** **** *** *** and *** *** *** ********* ***** *** *** *******. *** large ******** ***** **** ***'* ** ***** *** ***** ***** imported. ***** *** ** *** **** *** ** ***** ***** have ** ***** *** ****.

****** **** * *** * **** ** ****** * ** hub *** ******* *** ************* *** ********* *** ******** *** repairs, ***** ** *** **** ** ********* **** ** *** 15% ***. * *** ******* ** * ****** **** **** couldn’t ** **** ******* ** *** ** - ****** *** have ******** *** ******* ** **** ********* *******, *** ****** pay *** **** ** ** *** ******** *********.

** ***** ** * **** **** *** ***** ******* ***** on ***** *** ***** *** ***** ***'* ** ******** **** are ** **** **** **** ** ********** **** * ************** prospective. ***'* *** ****** ** *** ****** ******* **** ** importing.

* ******** **** ***** ** ****** *** ** ******* *** can't ******** ******* *** *** **** ** *** **** ** this ** **** ** ****** *** *** ***** **************.

***** ** **** **** ***** ** ********* ******* *** ***'* really ** *** *** **** ********* *** ** *** ***** hand *** *** ********* ***** ********* ** ** *** ******** so ***** ** * ***** ******** *** *** ****** **** to *** ******* ** ****** ***** **********.

* **** *** ** ******** **** *** ******* ****** *** really ***** *** * **** ** *** **** *** **** they **** *** ***** ****** ** *** **% **** **** they ********** *******

**% ****** **** ***** ** ****, **** ** **** ** cameras?

******* *** ***** ** **** *** ********, *** **** *** American *********.

**** **% ****** ***** ********** *** ********* **** ****. **** happened ** ********** *** **** *******.

****** = ***

**** ***** *** ******* ******* ** *******?
** *** *********** ** *** ** *** *** *** **% tax ******, ******* ** ****** *** **% ** *** ***** from ******

********* *** **** *** ** ***** ** ******* **** **** about *** *******, *********** ******, ******* **** **** **** ************* ********* ********* in *** ** ** ***** *** ******* ****** *** *** time *****:

***** ******** ***** ******:

  • **** ** *** ***** ***** **** **** ****, ******* **'* replacement
  • ********* *** *** **** *** ******** ***** *** *** ***** the *** *** ******.
  • *** ******* ********* ** **********, ********* ** *******, ** ******** some ************* ******* ** *****, ****** ****, ** ***, ******* they ****** ******* ** ** ****. **** **** ******** ******* manufacturing ** *****, ****** **** **** ****** ******* ** **** for *** ****** ****** *** ***.

****** ******* ******** **** **** **** *** ****** ********** *** will ****** **** ** ****. ******** **** ********* ** * time ***** (**** * ****/*********** **** *** ********** ********) ** data ******* ****** **** *** ****** ***** ** ****** ******* panels *** **** ** ********.

**** ****** **** *** ****?

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