How Higher Interest Rates Are Impacting Alarm Companies, Says Barnes Associates

Published Sep 05, 2023 13:28 PM

Surging interest rates are significantly impacting home sales and VC investments but what about its impact on security companies that rely on debt to fund recurring revenue sales?

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We spoke with Barnes Associates' Founding Partner Michael Barnes and Vice President Joe Thompson, who track alarm monitoring financials and hold an annual industry conference to understand better interest rates' impact on security companies.

Debt ******* *** ******** **** ************

*** **** ****** ** ******** **** conservative *** ** *********** ******** *******, says *******:

*** **********, **** ******* ******* ** higher ***** *** ******** ** *****, the **** ******* *** ******** **** conservative.

******* *** ******* ** **** ****, with ****** ********** *********** *** *** of **** ******:

**, ** ******** ** **** ****** charging *** **** *** *** *****, you ****** ****** ** *** **** also ******* ** **** *** ****.

**** *** **** * ** ******** time **** *** ******* ******* **** shoot *** **** ****** *** ******** earnings ** *** ******* ***** *** less ****, *** ******* ** ***** management *********** ******* ** **** ******* run *** ******* *** ********. ****** rates ********* **** ******* ****** ** covenants…so, *** * **** **** *** unexpected ********* ** *** **********.”

Increased ***** ** **** ******** **** ********** *** *** **********

*** ****** ******** ***** *** **** to ********* ** ********* *****, ******* told ****:

**** ******** ***** ********* **** * component ** **** ** ***** ******* structure, *** **** **** ******** ******* the *********** ** *** ******* *** its ******** ** ***** **** ** similar ********* ** ********* *****.

*** ********** ***** ****** **** ******** recurring *******, ***** ********** *** ** collateral *** ***** ******** *****, *** costs ** **** *** *** ***** to ********* *** *********, ****** *****:

** ***** ** **** ********* *** profitability ** ******** *********, ***** *** is *************** ******** ****, *** *** economics ** ********* ** *** *********** of *** *********, ***** **** ** that ********** **** **** **** **********.

***** *** ** ** ****** *% increase ** ******* ****, ******** ******* an ******* *** *********** **********:

** ** *******, * ******** ***** company **** *** **** ***** ** 14x ***** ***. ** **** *******, a $** *** *********** ******* ** supporting $*** ** **** (** * $50 = $***).

** * *% ******** ****, *** monthly ******** ** $*.**. ** *%, however, ** ** $*.** *** *****…**, an ******** ** $*.**. ****** ****** the ****** ******** ****, **** ***** of ******** ** ********.

**** ** ** **** ** *** cost ** ****** **** ******* ********* by * ********* ********** *******, ******* added:

** *** **** ** ***********, $*.** per ***** ** ****** *** **** of ****** *** ******** ********* ** a ********* ********** *******. **, **** level ** **** ******** ** ** par **** ****** ********** ***** ******** by ***%.

Higher ******** ***** ***** ***** ********* ******* *********

******* ********* ******** **********, ****** ******** rates *** **** *********** *** ********** of ***** ********** **********, ******** ****:

** ******** ** ********* *** ********* returns ** ******** ***, *** ***** originated ***, ***** ****** ******** *****affect *** ***** ** *** ****** **********. Higher interest rates mean lower values. The present value of a company’s ability to generate cash flow and earnings is lower if the cost of the capital needed to acquire it is higher. [emphasis added]

***** *** **** ******** ** ***** valuations ** *** ******. ** *** short ***, ***** *** **** ******* higher ******** ***** *** ***** ******, and *** "***-****" ******** ** ***** supporting **** ******. *******, ********** ***** eventually **** **** ** ********* ***** continue ** ****** ***** ********** **********, Barnes *****:

** *** ****** **** ******** ** the ******. ********** *** ******* ** move *****, *** ********** *** ****** to ** **. ***, **** **** the ******* ******, ******** ***** *** one ** **** ****** **** ********* the ********* ** *** ******. ****, there ***** ** ** * *** between ****** ***** *** ***** ******. In *** ***** ***, ***** ******* can ********, *** ** *** **** run, ** ***** **** ******, ***** will ** ** **********.

***** *** ***** ** ****** ***** up ***-**** ********, *** ********* ******* to **** *** *********** ****** ****** and ****** ****, *** ** **** moves ******* *** ************ ** *** math **** *******. *** ****** ** reacting ** ****.

Lower ********* ****

********** **** ******** ***** ****** ** a *********** ******** ** ************ ***, Barnes **********:

*** ********** **** **** ******** **** indicates *** ************ *** ***** **** to ** ** *** ***** ** $162 ****** ** ****** * *** basis ***** (*.*. *%) ****** **** cost **** *** **** ** *** customer, **** ********** *** ***** “***********” value **** ***** ** ******** ** the *******. **** **, ** ******** the ****** ** ****** ******* ********, the ***** **** ** ******* *** account ***** **** ** ** **** much *****.

**** ****** ****, ***** ** *** model, ***** ******** ****** *** **********, Barnes *********:

****[$***] ** **** **** * ***** the ***. **, ** *** **** an ******** *** **** ****** ********* you ***** *** *** *** *** this ******** ** *** *** ******** rate ***********, **** **** ***** ***** say *** *** ** ***** ***** today.

***** *** **** ***** ********* *********** factors ******** ** *********, **** ********* alarm ********** **********' *********, ****** **** IPVM:

************, ***** *** ******** ******** **** is ***** *** ** *** ******* components ** ***** ** ** ***********, there *** ** ***** ********** **********. For ********, *** ***** *** ************ engine **** ********** *** *********, *** infrastructure ** *** **********, *** ******* employee ****, ***. ***** *** **** affected ** ****** ******** ***** *** also ******* ** *** **** ******** pressure ** *****.

Inflation ******* ***** ****

***** ********** ********* *** ********* **** to ****** *** **** ******** ** the ******* ** ******** ****** *******, Barnes **** ****:

*********, *** ******* **** *** ******** on *** ********** *** ********* ******** are **** ****** **** **** ********* can ****** **** ***** ** ********** cost ********* ******* ***** **********, *** it **** ***** *** ****** ******* associated **** *** ********** **** *** made ** **** ********, **** ** it ***** ** *** **** ******** came ** *** **** ** ****** monitoring *****.

*******, ****** ***** ******** *** ******* raise ***** ***** ** ******** ** inflation:

************, **** **** ******** ***’* *** only *** *********, ** ** ** a *********. *** **** ******** ******* account *** *** ********** ****, *** can’t ** **** ** **** *** lower **** **********, ** *** **** offset ** ** ***** *****. ******* this ******** ** $*.** *** ***** is ******* * *% **** ******** on *** $**. ** ******** *********, that ** **********, *** ** *** be ****. **** *** **** * years, ** **** **** ******** *** clients ** **** ** ***** **** increase ********.

** ** ********* ** ***** ***** amid ************ *********, ******** *****:

***** *** ********** ******* $* ******** into *** ******* ****** *** ********, and *** ******** ** ***** ** is *********** ** **********, ***** ******** that ************ ********* *** ****** ******** rates *** ****** ** ** ****** for ** ******** ****** ** ****. It ** ********* *** ********* ** build ***** ********** ** *********** ******** rates…and, ** *** ** **.”

***** ********** *** ****** ** ******* increasing ****** ******* ****-*******, ** ** very ********* ** ** ** **** everything **** ** **** ******** **** expensive, ****** **** ****:

**** ********** *** ******* **** ** offsetting ****** ******* *****, *** **** companies *** ****** * ***** **** finding ****** **** ** ********** ****. Most ***** **** ***** *** **** under ********. ****** ***** *****, ****** material *****, ***. ***** ********* *** going ** ** *********.

Risk ** ****** *********

*** ******* **** *** ** *** this ***** ****** *** *********** ******* versus *** ******* **** ** ********** and **** ***** **** *********** ** lower-cost ********* **** *** **** ******** by ******** **** ********* *****, **** DIY, *** ********* *********** ***** *** installation.

****** **** ***** ********* *** ****** the ***** *** **** **** ******** is ********** ** *********:

*******, **** ******** ******** * ****** valuable *******, *** ***** ** ***** evidence **** *** ***-**** **** ****** these *********. **** *** **** **** affects *** *****, ****** ******** ***** are ********* ********, ** *** *** generally ****** **** *********** ** ** doing *** ****.

Adding $*** **-***** ****** *** ******** ** ****** ********* ********* *****

******* ******* ***** ********, ***** ********** providers *** **** ********** ***** ************ fees ** ******* *** ********** ********* costs **** ******* *** *********, ****** said:

** ******** ** ******* ***** ** offset *** ******** **** ************** ** existing ******** ********, ** ** **** important ** ******** ****** *** *** sale *** ************ ********** **** *********** new ********. *** $*.** *** ***** in ****** ******** ***** ********* ** the ******* ******* **** **** ** there *** ******* ********** ** *** customer ***.

**** ********* *** * ***** **** that ********* ******* *** ********* *****. For ********, ** ********* *****, ** installation ***** ***** ********, *** ******* formulas ********* *** *** **** ******. But, ******* ***** *** ********** *** considered. ** ** ********* ** ****** this **** *******.

**** **** ******** *** ** ********* in ********* ****, ****** ** ********* monthly *******, ***-**** ************ ****, ** both, ****** ****:

** ******, **** *********** *** *********, you **** *** *********** ** ****** offset **** ********* **** ** *** RMR *******, ** *** ******* ************ fee, ** **** ***********. ** ******** $52.92 ** *** ******* ** $**.** in *** *******, *** ********* ********* cost **** ** ******. *************, *** could **** ** *** * ****** upfront ****** ************ ***.

***** ** **** ***** ******* *******, an ***** ********** ******** ***** ** increase **-***** **** ** $*** *** customer ** ***** *** ********* *****, according ** ******:

*********** **** ****** ** ****** ** it ******** *********** ***** *** ******* life ** * ******** *** *** return ***** ** ***** ******* ******** to **** *** ***********, *** * number ** ***** *******. **** ** do **** ***** ***** ******** ********,charging $***.** **** ******* ***** ************* ***** *** ******* ***** ** $*.** **** ** *** **** *** **** ** *** ********.

*** *** **** ****** ** ******* the **** ******** ** **** ***-**** and ******* *******, ****** **** ****:

*** ***** ***** *** *** *** take * ****** ********, ** ******** say $** **** ******* *** $*.** more ** ***. ***** *** ******* the ********* ** ******* ********* ********.

Interest ***** ****** ** *** **** * *****

******** ***** *** ** ** ****** not **** ***** *** *****, ** Thompson *********:

*** **** ** **** ******* ** up **********. ** *** ********* ***** from *** ******* ******* *****, ********* SOFR, ********* ******** ***** *** ** roughly *** ***** ******. **** **, where **** ** ***** **** * company ***** **** **** ********* ** 3%, **** *** *** ****** *%. It *** **** **** ** ***** since ** **** **** ***** **** high.

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Interest ***** ***'* **** **** *******

**** *****,*** *** ********* ********* ***** *** **** *******, ** is ******** ***** ********* ***** ** that ***********, ********** ******** ** *** ~5 ********** ****** ******** ** *** last ** ******:

****** ***** **** *** *** ***** “proceed *********” ** *** ******* ****, signaling ** *** ****** ******* ** raise ***** ** *** ******* ****’* next ****** ******* ** *********.

“***** *** *** ** **** ****, at ****** ******** ** *** ** a ******** ** ******* *********,” ** officials “****** ******* ** ******* ******* or, *******, ** **** *** ****** rate ******** *** ***** ******* ****,” he **** ** ********** ******** *******.

Falling *****?

*******, ******* ******** *****, ** *** immediate ******, *** ********, ****** *** economy ************* *******, ** *** *** remains ********* ***** ********* *** **** continued ****** ******** ********.

*** *** *********** ******, *** **********, including ********, **** **** ** ***** to * ***** ** ************* ****** Interest ***** **** **** *** **** seen ***** *** *****.

****

**** **** **-******** ****** ****** ********** *** ********* ****** covered ** **** ******.

Comments (5)
Avatar
Jake Voll
Sep 05, 2023
SS&Si Dealer Network

**** ** ** ******* ******. * wonder *** ***** **** ********** *** impacting ********* ********** *********.

(1)
JH
John Honovich
Sep 05, 2023
IPVM

********* ********** ********* ********* ***'* **** debt **** ***** ******* *****? *** are ******** ** ******* ******** **** or?

Avatar
Jake Voll
Sep 05, 2023
SS&Si Dealer Network

**** ***'* (*********) **** *** ********** acquisition **** ** *** ** *** dealer **** ** ******, *** ****'** leveraged ** ****--** **** ************ *** facility ********. *****'* **** **** ****** sizable ************ ** *** ***** ****** the **** *** *****.

(1)
Avatar
Ryan King
Sep 08, 2023
Pacific Audio and Communications

**** ** * **** ****** ******. Another ****** ** *** **********/********* **** of ******: ********* ***** *** ******* more **********. ******** *** ****** ****** discounts *** ********** ** ** **** cases ********* ********** (****) ****** ******* a ******.

**** **** ** ******** ***** **'* own *****.

(1)
Avatar
Ed Fried
Sep 09, 2023

********* ******. **** **********.

(1)