Avigilon Stock Surges 40% On Strong Growth (Q3 2016)

By: John Honovich, Published on Nov 15, 2016

The roller coaster continues.

After a brutal Q2 heading down, Avigilon's Q3 growth is strongly up.

Inside this note, we examine what powered Avigilon's growth, Avigilon's CEO plan to deal with Asia / China and their future outlook.

Stock Chart Overview

Avigilon stock opened up ~40% (to 11.50) but is still far below its 2016 high and all time high of ~34:

*** ****** ******* *********.

***** ******* ** ******* ****, ********'* ** growth ** ******** **.

****** **** ****, ** examine **** ******* ********'* ******, Avigilon's *** **** ** deal **** **** / China *** ***** ****** outlook.

Stock ***** ********

******** ***** ****** ** ~40% (** **.**) *** is ***** *** ***** its **** **** *** all **** **** ** ~34:

[***************]

Financial ********

*************** *** ****% **** **** **** in ******* *****. ** ********, growth *** **** **% for *********** ****** ****** ****** this *******.

********, ******** ****** * net ****** ** ~$*.* million *** *** *******, and ***** **** *** down **** **** **% from *** ******** ****, it *** **** ****** than **'* *** **** of ~$* *******.

*** *** ******, ******** cited "******* **********, *** ******* introductions, ******* ******** ** video ********* *** ********* contributions **** *** ******** patent ******* *******."

Patent ********

*** *** ***** **** since ********* ** *** other ****** ********, ******** cited ****** ******* ** a *********** ****** ** growth, **** *** ******* noting:

*** ******** ****** ******* program ********* ** ******** of **** ****** ******* over *** ***** ****.

*******, ******** *** *** disclose *** **** ******* contributed. **** *** *********** that ****** ******* ***** be *****, ****** ****:

** *** ****** ** signing **** **** *****-** payments *** ** ***** come ** **** ****.

*** *******, ** * patent ******** **** * million units ******* **** *** 2015 **** **** **** agree ***** ***** ********'* patents, **** ***** *** a '*****-**' *** **** lump ******* *** ***** units ***** **** ** cover **** *****.

** ** *********** **** Avigilon **** *** ******** patent ******* ***** **** business ** ********** ********* and ********* ** ***** conventional ******* / ****** sales. ** **********, ** is *** ***** *** much ****** ***** *********** to ******* ****** ******** to ***** ******* ********.

Sales ******** *****

******** *** ********* **** its ******** ** ***** and *********, ******* **** 13% **** **** ****. Now, ** * ********** of *******, ***** *** marekting ** **% **** from ~**% ***** ** has ************ ****. **** is ********** **** ****** hires *** ******* ******* cuts ** **** **** the ******* ****. 

G&A ****** **%

*&* ************ ****** **%, which *** *** **** category ***** **** ******** change. ** **** ***** Avigilon *** ***** ** this.

$2 ******* ***** *******

******** *********** $*.** ******* of ***** ******** ** non-recurring. **** *** *** disclose **** ***** ****** (patents, ***.) **** ** was ******* **.

China *** ********* **** ********

************, ********'* *** *** said **** **** **** no ******* ********. **** has *******. ** *** admits [**** ** ****** available]:

***** ************* *** ********** to **** **** *** market **** ************.

******* ** ****, ********'* CEO *** ******** *** approach ** ***** ***** prices *** ****** ***** gross ****** *********** ** compete **** *** *******, noting:

** *** ***** ***** of *** ****** ** is **** ** * commodity ****... **** ******* ******** ** price ** ******* ** features *** ***********... *** **** ** ****** your ***** ****** [***********]

**** ***** ***** ** us. ****** ** ******** margins *** ****** ** the **** ** **** lower ****** *********** **** 'good ******' *********** *** forced **** ******** ****** out ** *** *** end (*.*., ******* / ***** ***********).

Outlook ******* - ****** ******* ********

******* ******** *** ******* this ** ************:

  • *** ***** ************ ****** overall *** *** ********. If ********, *** **** to *** ****** *** intensified ********** *** ****.
  • ******** *** ******** * handful ** *********** *** products *** ******* **** would ************* ****** ***** growth **********.
  • ***** ******** ******* / cuts **** *** **** few ****** ** *** to ***** ** **%+ consistent ******.

*** *** *** ***** in *** ****** ** 2016 ** * ****** increase ** *** ********** of ********* ** ********'* competitors, *.*.,***** *** *** ******** become *** *** *********** video. ** *** ****** that **** *********, ** could **** * ***** of ****** ********* ******* to ********. ** ** could ********** **** **** one ** ***** ********* decide ** ******* ********'* core *******. ** ** too ***** *** ** to **** *** ******** has ********* ****** ** analytics ****** ** ******* go **********.

Comments (4)

Undisclosed Manufacturer #1

11/16/16 02:29pm

After reading the info from Avigilon, numbers may be up but where the revenue is coming from is unclear. Appears people are buying the stock

Watch next Q! Since sales numbers are still down, would still be concerned. Also any company with focused major sales in the US, and says they are not worried about the Chinese destroying our marketplace is not too smart. Yes, Avigilon lowered prices and cut some jobs, and maybe took some losses, but lowering prices as a solution, only helps short term.

I know an ex-CEO that made an announcement with unclear numbers and later he was found out to have baked the numbers, and faced major trouble with lawsuits and was also terminated.Reason he did it was, he could cash out 'X Shares if stock price rose, based on his contract ( But this is different )

Michael Miller

11/16/16 03:39pm

Based off conversations with other dealers and our own pipeline I think we will see a repeat in the 4th Q. A lot of large projects that got pushed back are now starting to hit.

Undisclosed Manufacturer #1

In reply to Michael Miller | 11/16/16 03:57pm

I expect a key integrator for Avigilon, or someone working for Avigilon , to reply this way.

Give me a break! You are invested and have to say this!

Michael Miller

In reply to Undisclosed Manufacturer #1 | 11/16/16 04:02pm

I am just speaking from my experience nothing more nothing less. I also expect other "Undisclosed Manufacturers" to bash this. Have a great day.

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