Avigilon Buyout Potential Analyzed

Author: John Honovich, Published on Sep 08, 2015

A number of Avigilon investors and analysts have asked us about the potential for Avigilon to be bought out / taken over.

Basically, with the stock price down so far (60%+ since the peak last year), the idea here is that Avigilon is now very 'cheap' and would be quite attractive to large companies wanting to expand into or within the security industry.

In this note we:

  • Examine Avigilon's management barriers to a buyout
  • Compare Canon / Axis to an Avigilon acquisition
  • Assess the potential for a Chinese acquirer

* ****** ** ******** ********* *** ******** **** ***** ** about *** ********* *** ******** ** ** ****** *** / taken ****.

*********, **** *** ***** ***** **** ** *** (**%+ ***** the **** **** ****), *** **** **** ** **** ******** is *** **** '*****' *** ***** ** ***** ********** ** large ********* ******* ** ****** **** ** ****** *** ******** industry.

** **** **** **:

  • ******* ********'* ********** ******** ** * ******
  • ******* ***** / **** ** ** ******** ***********
  • ****** *** ********* *** * ******* ********

[***************]

Management ******** ** ******

*** ******* ******* ** **** ********'* ********** ******** *** ***** price ** *** ***********. *** ******* ** ~$**.**, ** ******** doubt ******** ********** ***** ******* * ~$** ****** *****, **** though **** ***** ********* * **% ******* **** *** ******* price.

**** ****, ********'* ********** *** ********* ******** *** ****** ***** price ** ** *** $**+ *****. ******, *** ***** ***** just ** ****** *** *** ~$**. ******** ****** ** *** progress *** * $*** ******* *** ****, *** ****** ********* for $* ******* *******, ******** ** ********'* ******* ****** ************** of **** ~$*** *******, ** ******** **** *** ******* ****** be ****** ****** ** ********* ** *** ******* *****.

******* ** ****, *** * ****** ** ******, ** ** likely **** *** ******** ***** **** ** ***** ** ***** $30 * *****, ** *** ****. ** ********* *****, **** means *** ******** ***** ** ***** $*.*+ *******.

** ******, ** *** ***** / **** **** *****, ** only ***** * ****** ******* ** *** * **** *****, but ***** *** **** *** ******** **** *** ******* ** spend **** * ******* **** **** **** * ******* *** any ***** ************ ************.

Canon / **** ******** ** ********

*** ********** **** *** ****** *** **** ****** ************* *** * *** ****** ******** stock *****. ******** *** ******* ** *****'* $*.* ******* ******** to ********, ***** ********'* ****** ****** **** *** ******* **** of ****' *******, ******** ****** ** ***** ** ** ** what ** ** *****, *** ***** ****.

*** ******* ******* **** *** ********** ** **** ***** **** a *** ******* ****** **** *** $*.* *******. ***** **** the ***** ************ ******** ** * ***** *** ******** ************, Axis ****** **** *** ********* ** ****, ****** ** *** most ****** *********** ******* ********** ******** ********. ****** ** ********* *****, ********* ** *** knowledge ***** *** ***** ** *** ****** ***, *** ******* are ** ****** *********** *** **********.

*** ** *** ******* ******** ******* ** **** *********** ** that *** ******* ** ********** *** ****. **** **** * long ***** ******, ***** ********** *********, *** * ****** *&* organization. ** ********, ******** ******* *&* ********** ** ** ****** patents *** **** **** ****** **** **** ********** **** ****** than **** *** ** *** **** ******. ******** ********** * lot **** ****.

Chinese ********

* ****** ** ******** **** ********** **** * ******* ************ might ****** ********. *** ****** **** **** *** ******* *** strong ** ******** *** **** ** ********. ** **********, ********* and ***** *** *** **** ********* ***** *****-********.

** *** **** ****, ******** *** ******** *** *** ********* software **** *** ******* ************.

*******, ***** *** * ****** ** ********** ** ****** **** work:

  • *** *****: ** *** ******* *************, **** ********* ***** ****** afford ** *** * $*+ ******* *** * *******. *******, Hikvision ***** ****** ******* ******* *** * ******** ** **** price ** **** ****** ****** *** **** ************* *** ********.
  • *** ********: ** ** *** ***** **** ********* **** ***** to ******* *** *** ******** *********** *********** ** ** ** doing ********* **** ********** **** *** ********* ******* ******* ******* of *******.
  • ********'* *********: ** ******* ********* **** ********'* * ***** ******** production ********** ***** **** **** ***** *** ************* ********** ** China? ******* **** *** **** ** * *** ** ** more '********' ** **** ***** *** ** ** ********.
  • ****** ** ****: ** ***** ** **** **** *** ******** to ** **** ** ******* *****, ***** *** ******* ********** in *** ******* ***** ******* ********. ** ***** ******* ******** would **** ** ** **** ** **** (********* ******** *** **** ********). *******, ***** ********* ****** **** ** ** **** ** pay $*+ ******* ** **** *** ********? 

*******

****** *** * ****** ***** ** ********* ** ** **** takes *** ***** ********* ******* ** **** * **** ******.

*******, ** ******** *********** ******* ****, **** *** ***** ***** what ** **, ** ********, ***** ********'* ********** *******, *** realities ** *** ***** ************ *********** *** *** ********** *** potential ****** ********** **** * ****.

** ** ***** ********* ******** **** ******** ****** ******, ***** that *** ******** **** **** ** **** **** ****** *** delivers ******** ****** / *******, *** **** ** * *** more ******** ******* **** * ******.

Comments (28)

Undisclosed Manufacturer #1

09/08/15 05:30pm

* ***** ***** ** ***** ***** ** * ****** ***** since **** *** ** ****** *** ****** ******* **** ******** type *********.

John Honovich

IPVM | In reply to Undisclosed Manufacturer #1 | 09/08/15 05:37pm

*****???

* ****** *** **** ************ ***** ** ** **:

"*** ** ******** ***** ***** *** **** ** ****** ***** for $*.* *******? ** ****, ******* ** ******** ***** *** than **** ** ****** ** *** ** **** *** **** me ******* $*.* *******, **** **** ** ****** ** ***** to **** ***. *** ****, ***'* ***** **** ******** *** Pelco ******** ***% *******. **'** ****** ** ***"

** *** *****, *** ***** **** **** ****. **** ********* have ****** ********* *** **** **** **** **** ******** ***** want ***, **** *** ****, ** ***** *** ** ** easy/cheap **** ** *******.

Undisclosed Manufacturer #1

In reply to John Honovich | 09/08/15 05:46pm

**** ********* ******* ** ** ******* ** *** ************ ******. This ** *** ** *** *** ********* ************* ** ** a *** ********* ***********. **'* ***** *** ** *** ***** playbook.

John Honovich

IPVM | In reply to Undisclosed Manufacturer #1 | 09/08/15 05:49pm

*** '***'* ** ***' **** ** ****** *** ******** ****** in ******* * ***** ******. **** **** ******* ***** ** commit, ***** ** ******, ** ****** *** ******.

John Honovich

IPVM | In reply to Undisclosed Manufacturer #1 | 09/08/15 05:57pm

"**** ********* ******* ** ** ******* ** *** ************ ******."

****'* ***** *** **** ** *****....

*********, ****** ** **/***** *** ***** ** ***** * *******, might ** **** ****** ** ********** **** *** ** *********** offering.

Undisclosed Manufacturer #1

In reply to John Honovich | 09/08/15 06:01pm

**** *****'* *** *** ****** ** ****** ** ******* ** such * ********. **'* **** ****** *** ******* ** ***** over **** ******* **** ** *** **** *** **** ********* that *** ******** ********.

John Honovich

IPVM | In reply to Undisclosed Manufacturer #1 | 09/08/15 06:04pm

"*** **** *** **** ********* **** *********** ********."

*** *** ** *** ******* ***** ******** ** ********* ****. Avigilon, **** ** *** *****, ** * ****** ****-**** **** for ** ********, ***** *** ********* ********, ***** ****** *** patent *********** ********.

Undisclosed Manufacturer #1

In reply to John Honovich | 09/08/15 06:11pm

*. ********* ******** ** ***** ** ****** ***** ** ***********.

*. ***** ***** **** **** **** *****/***** ****

*. ****** *********** *** ** ********* ** ** ***** ****** by ******* **** **.

John Honovich

IPVM | In reply to Undisclosed Manufacturer #1 | 09/08/15 06:14pm

** *** ** *** ***** *** *****, *** *** **********, nor *** ****** *********, *** ***** ~$*.* ******* ** ********?

Undisclosed Manufacturer #1

In reply to John Honovich | 09/08/15 06:18pm

*. *** **** *******

*. ****** *****/********

*. ***** ***-**-*** ********

*. ***** *********** ****

********* *** *** ****** **** *****/***** ****'* ***** **** **...

John Honovich

IPVM | In reply to Undisclosed Manufacturer #1 | 09/08/15 06:21pm

*** ***** ** *** **** ** ***. *** *** ********* make * ***** **** *** *** * *** ** *** have ** *** ~$*.* ******* *** *** ***'* **** *** of *** *****, *** ********** **** ** *** *******, **'* going ** ** **** ** ******* *** ****.

**** ****, ******* ***** ** ***** ***** *** ******** ** today's ***** ***** ** ~$*** *******, **** ***** ** * reasonable **** ** ****, ****** * ***** ********'* *** ***** not **** ******** ***** ** **** *****.

Hal Bennick

In reply to Undisclosed Manufacturer #1 | 09/10/15 03:05pm

* ***** ** ** **** ****** **** ***** **** ** bought **** ** ** **** ***** **** ** ******...

Undisclosed #2

09/08/15 05:56pm

*******, ** ******** *********** ******* ****, **** *** ***** ***** what ** **, ** ********....

* ***** ***** ***** ***** * **** **** ****** **** a ****** ***.

*** *******, ** ** ******* ** $* * *****, ***** comes ** ** $**...

John Honovich

IPVM | In reply to Undisclosed #2 | 09/08/15 06:01pm

*** *** ***** ** **** ******** ********** (*.*., *** ******* / ******** / ***, ***, ***.) *** ******* ** ************ (especially ***** **** ** *** *** **-******* *** ****** **% themselves). ** **** ** **** *** **** ***** $*** ******* 2016 *** **** ****, * ***** **** *** ***** ** accept $** ** $** ** **** $** ** **** *** easily *** ******* **** ******* * **** ****** *** ** long **** *****.

Undisclosed #2

In reply to John Honovich | 09/08/15 06:13pm

* ***'* ***** ******** ** ** ******* ** **** ****. Do ***?

****'** ******** ** *** "***, *****'* ****** ********** **** ****** than ** *********** **** **** ** **** *** *** **** predictions..."

********* ***'* ******, ** **** *** ******* *******. ******* ** some ***** ** ** ********* ********* ** ********* **************.

John Honovich

IPVM | In reply to Undisclosed #2 | 09/08/15 06:17pm

****, *** * ***** ***** ****** ***** **** ** *** worse. * ** **** ****** **'* *** ******* ** ***** in *** ***** ***** ***. ** ****** ** *** ******* in * ** ** ******, **** ** ***** ****** ** simply **** ** ***** **** *** ******** ** *** *****.

Undisclosed Integrator #3

09/08/15 06:07pm

***'* ******** ***** **** * ******* ** *****"******"*** ******* ** **** *** *****, ****** * **** **** likley? [***]

John Honovich

IPVM | In reply to Undisclosed Integrator #3 | 09/08/15 06:12pm

****, *** *** *** ****** **** ***** ** ** ** it *** *** **** ****, **** ** ****** **** ** is ***** *** **** ** ******** **** **** *** *** a *** ****** *** **** ********.

********* **** ** **** ** **** ******* *** **** *** events ** *** **** **** **** *** ******* ***, * would ***** **** ***** *** **** ****** ** ****.

**** ******* ***** *** ***** ******, ******* ** *** * healthy *** *** ****** ****** ** ** *** * **** exit, ** **** ***** **** ******* *** ** (********* *** them) *** ****** ********.

Tim Campbell

09/10/15 01:27am

*** * ******** ****** *******, ******, * ****** ***'* * decision *** **** *** *** ** ****. ***** * ******* or **** ****** ** ******** ********* ***** **** ***, ************ about *% ** *** *********** ******. ** ******* ******* ****** feels ******** ** ***********, ** ***** ****** ***** ** * decent ******** ***** ** *** ****** ****** ****** ** **** makes * ****. *** *******, ** *** ***** ******* ***** get, ***, **% ** ********, (***** * ******* ******) **** it ***** **** **** ** **** ** ***** ** ******* 35%. **** ** *** * ******** *****, ** *** ******* the *****, ***, *** *** **** ** *** ******** ***** into *****.

Undisclosed #2

In reply to Tim Campbell | 09/10/15 10:53am

...* ****** ***'* * ******** *** **** *** *** ** make...

**'* *** **** *** *** ******. ** ***** ******* ********* which ***** ****** **** * ******** **********.

***

*********

******** ** *** *****

*******

******* *********** (** ***)

*** ** ******* ** ***** ** * **** ***** ** you ***** ** **** *** ******* **** **** ***. :)

Tim Campbell

In reply to Undisclosed #2 | 09/10/15 12:00pm

** ******. * ******** ** ******** ***** ***** ** **** smoother, *** ** ******* . **** ********** ** *******, **** can **** ****** **** **** *********, *** ** ***** ** not **** ****** * ******* *******.

John Honovich

IPVM | In reply to Tim Campbell | 09/10/15 12:04pm

***, *** **** ***** ***** ** *** ***** ********'* ***** is ***** ** ** *********** **** *** * ******** ********?

** **** ***** ***** *** * ******* ******** *** ****** shares ** ****** **** **********'* *******?

Tim Campbell

09/10/15 01:48pm

****, * ***** **** **** ********** ** **** ******** ********** sees ** *** ********** ***** ** *** ******* ****-****, *** undoubtedly ** ** * *** ****** **** *** ******* **************.

*****'* */* ** ** ***** ***** *** *** *** *******, unless *** ******* **** ** ** ***** ** **** *****. Even ** ** **** * **** */* **, ***, ** for * ******* ****-***** *******, **** ***** ** **** *** $20 *****. *** **** * ******* *** * ******** ... and * ****** ******* ** *** ******* ... ***** ** in *** $**+ *****, **?

******* * ***** ***** ***** $* ******* ** $*.* ******* for *** ******* ** ******* ********. ** ******** *** ******* on *** ****** ********, **** ** ***** ********** ** ***** it. *** *** ***** **** ** **** **** *** ******* "bumps" *** ********* *** ********.

Undisclosed #4

09/11/15 03:24am

*********?

John Honovich

IPVM | In reply to Undisclosed #4 | 09/11/15 11:53am

* ***** *** ** ********* ** ********* ******** * ***** surveillance *******. * ***** ** ********* ** **** ***** *** amount ** ***** **** ******** ***** *******. **** ** **** a ******** ** *********'* *********** ** ***** ****** **** *** quality ** ******** ** *** ***** ***** ********* ************.

Undisclosed #2

09/14/15 05:07am

*** **** ***-****** **** ** *** ****?

*** **** ********.

*** **** ******* ***** ******* *** ** *******. ** **** pointed *** **** *** *** ** *** ********* ****** ****-**** who **** *** **** ** ** ********* ********* *** ** intellectual ********.

******: *** ****-*** ********** ***** ********** **********, ********.

** *** ***-***, *****, ***** ** ******** ** ********* **** than ** * **** ** ******* ***** **, ******* **** a ****** *** ****** *** ***** ****** ***** *****-*** *******.

*'* *** ****** * **** **** ** ******, *** ** does **** *** * ***** ******* *****/****/*******.

John Honovich

IPVM | 02/02/17 07:37pm

******: ** *** **** ** ******, ** *** ****** **** more ****** **** ******** **** ****** ***. **** *** ******* tough **** *** *** ***** **** ** ***** **** ** ~$8 *** *** **** ** ** $**, ****** ***** *** off ***** **** ****.

*****'* * *** ** ******** ******* ***** ** ******** *********** happening ***.

Attila Szucs

04/19/17 12:51pm

** * ***** *** * **** *** **** ***** * heard (***** ********* ****** *****) **** ** ** ******** *** a ******... * ***** ** * **** ******. :*

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