Avigilon Buyout Potential Analyzed

Author: John Honovich, Published on Sep 08, 2015

A number of Avigilon investors and analysts have asked us about the potential for Avigilon to be bought out / taken over.

Basically, with the stock price down so far (60%+ since the peak last year), the idea here is that Avigilon is now very 'cheap' and would be quite attractive to large companies wanting to expand into or within the security industry.

In this note we:

  • Examine Avigilon's management barriers to a buyout
  • Compare Canon / Axis to an Avigilon acquisition
  • Assess the potential for a Chinese acquirer

* ****** ** ******** ********* *** ******** **** ***** ** about *** ********* *** ******** ** ** ****** *** / taken ****.

*********, **** *** ***** ***** **** ** *** (**%+ ***** the **** **** ****), *** **** **** ** **** ******** is *** **** '*****' *** ***** ** ***** ********** ** large ********* ******* ** ****** **** ** ****** *** ******** industry.

** **** **** **:

  • ******* ********'* ********** ******** ** * ******
  • ******* ***** / **** ** ** ******** ***********
  • ****** *** ********* *** * ******* ********

[***************]

Management ******** ** ******

*** ******* ******* ** **** ********'* ********** ******** *** ***** price ** *** ***********. *** ******* ** ~$**.**, ** ******** doubt ******** ********** ***** ******* * ~$** ****** *****, **** though **** ***** ********* * **% ******* **** *** ******* price.

**** ****, ********'* ********** *** ********* ******** *** ****** ***** price ** ** *** $**+ *****. ******, *** ***** ***** just ** ****** *** *** ~$**. ******** ****** ** *** progress *** * $*** ******* *** ****, *** ****** ********* for $* ******* *******, ******** ** ********'* ******* ****** ************** of **** ~$*** *******, ** ******** **** *** ******* ****** be ****** ****** ** ********* ** *** ******* *****.

******* ** ****, *** * ****** ** ******, ** ** likely **** *** ******** ***** **** ** ***** ** ***** $30 * *****, ** *** ****. ** ********* *****, **** means *** ******** ***** ** ***** $*.*+ *******.

** ******, ** *** ***** / **** **** *****, ** only ***** * ****** ******* ** *** * **** *****, but ***** *** **** *** ******** **** *** ******* ** spend **** * ******* **** **** **** * ******* *** any ***** ************ ************.

Canon / **** ******** ** ********

*** ********** **** *** ****** *** **** ****** ************* *** * *** ****** ******** stock *****. ******** *** ******* ** *****'* $*.* ******* ******** to ********, ***** ********'* ****** ****** **** *** ******* **** of ****' *******, ******** ****** ** ***** ** ** ** what ** ** *****, *** ***** ****.

*** ******* ******* **** *** ********** ** **** ***** **** a *** ******* ****** **** *** $*.* *******. ***** **** the ***** ************ ******** ** * ***** *** ******** ************, Axis ****** **** *** ********* ** ****, ****** ** *** most ****** *********** ******* ********** ******** ********. ****** ** ********* *****, ********* ** *** knowledge ***** *** ***** ** *** ****** ***, *** ******* are ** ****** *********** *** **********.

*** ** *** ******* ******** ******* ** **** *********** ** that *** ******* ** ********** *** ****. **** **** * long ***** ******, ***** ********** *********, *** * ****** *&* organization. ** ********, ******** ******* *&* ********** ** ** ****** patents *** **** **** ****** **** **** ********** **** ****** than **** *** ** *** **** ******. ******** ********** * lot **** ****.

Chinese ********

* ****** ** ******** **** ********** **** * ******* ************ might ****** ********. *** ****** **** **** *** ******* *** strong ** ******** *** **** ** ********. ** **********, ********* and ***** *** *** **** ********* ***** *****-********.

** *** **** ****, ******** *** ******** *** *** ********* software **** *** ******* ************.

*******, ***** *** * ****** ** ********** ** ****** **** work:

  • *** *****: ** *** ******* *************, **** ********* ***** ****** afford ** *** * $*+ ******* *** * *******. *******, Hikvision ***** ****** ******* ******* *** * ******** ** **** price ** **** ****** ****** *** **** ************* *** ********.
  • *** ********: ** ** *** ***** **** ********* **** ***** to ******* *** *** ******** *********** *********** ** ** ** doing ********* **** ********** **** *** ********* ******* ******* ******* of *******.
  • ********'* *********: ** ******* ********* **** ********'* * ***** ******** production ********** ***** **** **** ***** *** ************* ********** ** China? ******* **** *** **** ** * *** ** ** more '********' ** **** ***** *** ** ** ********.
  • ****** ** ****: ** ***** ** **** **** *** ******** to ** **** ** ******* *****, ***** *** ******* ********** in *** ******* ***** ******* ********. ** ***** ******* ******** would **** ** ** **** ** **** (********* ******** *** **** ********). *******, ***** ********* ****** **** ** ** **** ** pay $*+ ******* ** **** *** ********? 

*******

****** *** * ****** ***** ** ********* ** ** **** takes *** ***** ********* ******* ** **** * **** ******.

*******, ** ******** *********** ******* ****, **** *** ***** ***** what ** **, ** ********, ***** ********'* ********** *******, *** realities ** *** ***** ************ *********** *** *** ********** *** potential ****** ********** **** * ****.

** ** ***** ********* ******** **** ******** ****** ******, ***** that *** ******** **** **** ** **** **** ****** *** delivers ******** ****** / *******, *** **** ** * *** more ******** ******* **** * ******.

Comments (28)

* ***** ***** ** ***** ***** ** * ****** ***** since **** *** ** ****** *** ****** ******* **** ******** type *********.

*****???

* ****** *** **** ************ ***** ** ** **:

"*** ** ******** ***** ***** *** **** ** ****** ***** for $*.* *******? ** ****, ******* ** ******** ***** *** than **** ** ****** ** *** ** **** *** **** me ******* $*.* *******, **** **** ** ****** ** ***** to **** ***. *** ****, ***'* ***** **** ******** *** Pelco ******** ***% *******. **'** ****** ** ***"

** *** *****, *** ***** **** **** ****. **** ********* have ****** ********* *** **** **** **** **** ******** ***** want ***, **** *** ****, ** ***** *** ** ** easy/cheap **** ** *******.

**** ********* ******* ** ** ******* ** *** ************ ******. This ** *** ** *** *** ********* ************* ** ** a *** ********* ***********. **'* ***** *** ** *** ***** playbook.

*** '***'* ** ***' **** ** ****** *** ******** ****** in ******* * ***** ******. **** **** ******* ***** ** commit, ***** ** ******, ** ****** *** ******.

"**** ********* ******* ** ** ******* ** *** ************ ******."

****'* ***** *** **** ** *****....

*********, ****** ** **/***** *** ***** ** ***** * *******, might ** **** ****** ** ********** **** *** ** *********** offering.

**** *****'* *** *** ****** ** ****** ** ******* ** such * ********. **'* **** ****** *** ******* ** ***** over **** ******* **** ** *** **** *** **** ********* that *** ******** ********.

"*** **** *** **** ********* **** *********** ********."

*** *** ** *** ******* ***** ******** ** ********* ****. Avigilon, **** ** *** *****, ** * ****** ****-**** **** for ** ********, ***** *** ********* ********, ***** ****** *** patent *********** ********.

*. ********* ******** ** ***** ** ****** ***** ** ***********.

*. ***** ***** **** **** **** *****/***** ****

*. ****** *********** *** ** ********* ** ** ***** ****** by ******* **** **.

** *** ** *** ***** *** *****, *** *** **********, nor *** ****** *********, *** ***** ~$*.* ******* ** ********?

*. *** **** *******

*. ****** *****/********

*. ***** ***-**-*** ********

*. ***** *********** ****

********* *** *** ****** **** *****/***** ****'* ***** **** **...

*** ***** ** *** **** ** ***. *** *** ********* make * ***** **** *** *** * *** ** *** have ** *** ~$*.* ******* *** *** ***'* **** *** of *** *****, *** ********** **** ** *** *******, **'* going ** ** **** ** ******* *** ****.

**** ****, ******* ***** ** ***** ***** *** ******** ** today's ***** ***** ** ~$*** *******, **** ***** ** * reasonable **** ** ****, ****** * ***** ********'* *** ***** not **** ******** ***** ** **** *****.

* ***** ** ** **** ****** **** ***** **** ** bought **** ** ** **** ***** **** ** ******...

*******, ** ******** *********** ******* ****, **** *** ***** ***** what ** **, ** ********....

* ***** ***** ***** ***** * **** **** ****** **** a ****** ***.

*** *******, ** ** ******* ** $* * *****, ***** comes ** ** $**...

*** *** ***** ** **** ******** ********** (*.*., *** ******* / ******** / ***, ***, ***.) *** ******* ** ************ (especially ***** **** ** *** *** **-******* *** ****** **% themselves). ** **** ** **** *** **** ***** $*** ******* 2016 *** **** ****, * ***** **** *** ***** ** accept $** ** $** ** **** $** ** **** *** easily *** ******* **** ******* * **** ****** *** ** long **** *****.

* ***'* ***** ******** ** ** ******* ** **** ****. Do ***?

****'** ******** ** *** "***, *****'* ****** ********** **** ****** than ** *********** **** **** ** **** *** *** **** predictions..."

********* ***'* ******, ** **** *** ******* *******. ******* ** some ***** ** ** ********* ********* ** ********* **************.

****, *** * ***** ***** ****** ***** **** ** *** worse. * ** **** ****** **'* *** ******* ** ***** in *** ***** ***** ***. ** ****** ** *** ******* in * ** ** ******, **** ** ***** ****** ** simply **** ** ***** **** *** ******** ** *** *****.

***'* ******** ***** **** * ******* ** *****"******"*** ******* ** **** *** *****, ****** * **** **** likley? [***]

****, *** *** *** ****** **** ***** ** ** ** it *** *** **** ****, **** ** ****** **** ** is ***** *** **** ** ******** **** **** *** *** a *** ****** *** **** ********.

********* **** ** **** ** **** ******* *** **** *** events ** *** **** **** **** *** ******* ***, * would ***** **** ***** *** **** ****** ** ****.

**** ******* ***** *** ***** ******, ******* ** *** * healthy *** *** ****** ****** ** ** *** * **** exit, ** **** ***** **** ******* *** ** (********* *** them) *** ****** ********.

*** * ******** ****** *******, ******, * ****** ***'* * decision *** **** *** *** ** ****. ***** * ******* or **** ****** ** ******** ********* ***** **** ***, ************ about *% ** *** *********** ******. ** ******* ******* ****** feels ******** ** ***********, ** ***** ****** ***** ** * decent ******** ***** ** *** ****** ****** ****** ** **** makes * ****. *** *******, ** *** ***** ******* ***** get, ***, **% ** ********, (***** * ******* ******) **** it ***** **** **** ** **** ** ***** ** ******* 35%. **** ** *** * ******** *****, ** *** ******* the *****, ***, *** *** **** ** *** ******** ***** into *****.

...* ****** ***'* * ******** *** **** *** *** ** make...

**'* *** **** *** *** ******. ** ***** ******* ********* which ***** ****** **** * ******** **********.

***

*********

******** ** *** *****

*******

******* *********** (** ***)

*** ** ******* ** ***** ** * **** ***** ** you ***** ** **** *** ******* **** **** ***. :)

** ******. * ******** ** ******** ***** ***** ** **** smoother, *** ** ******* . **** ********** ** *******, **** can **** ****** **** **** *********, *** ** ***** ** not **** ****** * ******* *******.

***, *** **** ***** ***** ** *** ***** ********'* ***** is ***** ** ** *********** **** *** * ******** ********?

** **** ***** ***** *** * ******* ******** *** ****** shares ** ****** **** **********'* *******?

****, * ***** **** **** ********** ** **** ******** ********** sees ** *** ********** ***** ** *** ******* ****-****, *** undoubtedly ** ** * *** ****** **** *** ******* **************.

*****'* */* ** ** ***** ***** *** *** *** *******, unless *** ******* **** ** ** ***** ** **** *****. Even ** ** **** * **** */* **, ***, ** for * ******* ****-***** *******, **** ***** ** **** *** $20 *****. *** **** * ******* *** * ******** ... and * ****** ******* ** *** ******* ... ***** ** in *** $**+ *****, **?

******* * ***** ***** ***** $* ******* ** $*.* ******* for *** ******* ** ******* ********. ** ******** *** ******* on *** ****** ********, **** ** ***** ********** ** ***** it. *** *** ***** **** ** **** **** *** ******* "bumps" *** ********* *** ********.

*********?

* ***** *** ** ********* ** ********* ******** * ***** surveillance *******. * ***** ** ********* ** **** ***** *** amount ** ***** **** ******** ***** *******. **** ** **** a ******** ** *********'* *********** ** ***** ****** **** *** quality ** ******** ** *** ***** ***** ********* ************.

*** **** ***-****** **** ** *** ****?

*** **** ********.

*** **** ******* ***** ******* *** ** *******. ** **** pointed *** **** *** *** ** *** ********* ****** ****-**** who **** *** **** ** ** ********* ********* *** ** intellectual ********.

******: *** ****-*** ********** ***** ********** **********, ********.

** *** ***-***, *****, ***** ** ******** ** ********* **** than ** * **** ** ******* ***** **, ******* **** a ****** *** ****** *** ***** ****** ***** *****-*** *******.

*'* *** ****** * **** **** ** ******, *** ** does **** *** * ***** ******* *****/****/*******.

******: ** *** **** ** ******, ** *** ****** **** more ****** **** ******** **** ****** ***. **** *** ******* tough **** *** *** ***** **** ** ***** **** ** ~$8 *** *** **** ** ** $**, ****** ***** *** off ***** **** ****.

*****'* * *** ** ******** ******* ***** ** ******** *********** happening ***.

** * ***** *** * **** *** **** ***** * heard (***** ********* ****** *****) **** ** ** ******** *** a ******... * ***** ** * **** ******. :*

Login to read this IPVM report.
Why do I need to log in?
IPVM conducts unique testing and research funded by member's payments enabling us to offer the most independent, accurate and in-depth information.

Related Reports

Milestone / Canon Launch Cloud Startup Arcus Global on Jun 27, 2017
Milestone has spun off a business, Arcus Global, funded by their parent company Canon. The new company aims to transform the VSaaS market with an...
VMS UI - Light vs Dark Preferences on Jun 16, 2017
Several VMS manufacturers have the ability to choose a user interface with either a light or dark color theme. 150+ integrators told us which they...
Panasonic Sells VSaaS Company To Eagle Eye (Cameramanager) on Jun 15, 2017
While many VSaaS companies might hope for one acquisition, Cameramanager has managed to get acquired twice. First they were acquired by Panasonic,...
Axis 20MP Q1659 Camera Tested on Jun 13, 2017
Axis has joined the super high resolution camera trend with their Q1659, a 20MP model equipped with Canon's APS-C sensor. We tested the Q1659...
Milestone New "+" Claims To "Conquer The Mid-Market" on Jun 07, 2017
Milestone has declared they are going to "Conquer The Mid-Market" with new "+" releases. Will they? In this report, we examine Milestone's "+"...
Manufacturer Revenue Directory on Jun 05, 2017
This report contains data on the revenue of 32 security manufacturers, trend analysis of whether they are gaining or losing ground and commentary...
Most Disrespected Manufacturer Competitors on Jun 01, 2017
Manufacturers told IPVM what competitor they most disrespected. There was one overwhelming selection that manufacturers felt was harming the...
Ex-ADT President And PE Firm Pay $200M+ For Alarm Dealer Guardian on May 31, 2017
Private equity firms are on the hunt for security companies with strong RMR numbers. One such security company, Guardian Alarm, was recently...
Most Respected Manufacturer Competitors on May 25, 2017
Manufacturers told IPVM what competitor they most respected. In terms of total revenue, Hikvision, Dahua and Axis are certainly tops but would...
IP Camera - 15 Year Shootout on May 22, 2017
How far have IP cameras come? We bought and tested 4 cameras across the past 15 years to understand how much and where performance has...

Most Recent Industry Reports

Startup Replacing Passwords With Patterns (Shayype) on Jun 28, 2017
This startup, Shayype, aims to eliminate passwords, replacing them with patterns. Problems with passwords are clear, as simple passwords, re-used...
NRF 2017 Exhibits Traffic Weak on Jun 28, 2017
The 'retail apocalypse' is not sparing the security industry. The National Retail Federation's Protect 2017's exhibit traffic is weak, notably...
Top 5 Improvements For Manufacturer Sales People on Jun 28, 2017
Manufacturer sales people are very important to integrators, but it takes more than just punching a clock to be successful and truly valuable to...
Avigilon VP Communications Exits on Jun 27, 2017
In 2016, Avigilon hired an executive, Darren Seed to: build and maintain strategic relationships with the investment community and to...
Hikvision H.265+ Tested on Jun 27, 2017
Hikvision, which in the past few years released H.264+ (see test results) has now released H.265+, that claims even greater bandwidth savings. We...
Milestone / Canon Launch Cloud Startup Arcus Global on Jun 27, 2017
Milestone has spun off a business, Arcus Global, funded by their parent company Canon. The new company aims to transform the VSaaS market with an...
Biometrics Pros and Cons For Electronic Access Control on Jun 26, 2017
Biometrics has been long sought as an alternative to the security risks of cards, pins and passwords. While biometrics has improved somewhat over...
Manufacturer Sales People Are Very Important - Statistics on Jun 26, 2017
IPVM's new integrator statistics show what sales people say regularly: Sales people are very important. From 150 integrator...
No Personal Opinions About Work on Jun 26, 2017
One rising trend is the tendency for people to disclaim their statements on work related topics as their own 'opinions' or 'personal...
Importance of Sales To Integrators - Statistics on Jun 23, 2017
One of the top trends in the industry over the past few years has been the rise of across-the-board sales (e.g.: Hikvision Sales, Dahua Sale,...

The world's leading video surveillance information source, IPVM provides the best reporting, testing and training for 10,000+ members globally. Dedicated to independent and objective information, we uniquely refuse any and all advertisements, sponsorship and consulting from manufacturers.

About | FAQ | Contact