Asian / Global Bullish Forecast

JH
John Honovich
•Published Jun 16, 2010 00:00 AM
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RNCOS, an Indian based research firm, has published extremely bullish growth forecast for the global and Asian CCTV market.

In the press announcement [link no longer available], they claim:

  • 22% Compounded Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) from 2010 - 2013 for the Global CCTV market
  • 28% CAGR from 2010-2013 for the Asian CCTV market

In the report summary, they claim:

  • $28 Billion Global CCTV market in 2013
  • $15 Billion Global CCTV market today (2010) implicit from 22% CAGR projected
  • 53% of CCTV revenue will come from Asia in 2013

We are highly skeptical about the global CCTV market growth rate of 22%, primarily becomes this includes analog video surveillance which is flat to down and is likely to remain this way over the period. The IP video segment should easily be over 22% but it is unrealistic to believe that this will offset analog growth drop to grow the entire market by 22% per year.

On the Asian market side, there seems to be wide agreement about the strong growth in market (see Frost Asia market report and HikVision's massive IPO for example). However, we are skeptical that the Asian market will be bigger than the entire rest of the world (including the Americas and EMEA) by 2013. Even if Asia is growing quickly, the starting point of market value in India and China is relatively low relative to Europe/US spending.