Arlo, Bigger Than Avigilon, More Valuable Than Axis

Author: John Honovich, Published on Feb 08, 2018

Arlo, the wireless IP camera offering that Netgear bought ~5 years ago for a few tens of millions is now doing more revenue than Avigilon and likely will get a higher market valuation than Axis' $3+ billion USD.

Sounds crazy to those in the professional video surveillance market but that is the details and projections coming forward from Netgear's plan to spin out Arlo.

[Related - IPVM test of Arlo Camera System and IPVM test of Arlo Go Cellular Camera.]

In this note, we analyze Arlo's financials, examine the consumer video surveillance space, compare to other video surveillance major players and explain why Arlo faces major competitive threats in the next 3 - 5 years.

****, *** ******** ** ****** ******** **** ******* ****** ~* years *** *** * *** **** ** ******** ** *** doing **** ******* **** ******** *** ****** **** *** * higher ****** ********* **** ****' $*+ ******* ***.

****** ***** ** ***** ** *** ************ ***** ************ ****** but **** ** *** ******* *** *********** ****** ******* ***********'* **** ** **** *** ****.

[******* -**** **** ** **** ****** ************* **** ** **** ** ******** ******.]

** **** ****, ** ******* ****'* **********, ******* *** ******** video ************ *****, ******* ** ***** ***** ************ ***** ******* and ******* *** **** ***** ***** *********** ******* ** *** next * - * *****.

[***************]

Why - ******* **** **** ******* ********

*** *********** ****** *** **** ********* ****** ** ******** ******** from ******* **** **** *******, **** ****. **** ***** *** problem ** *** ** *** ***** ******* ***'* ***** ** small ********, *********** **** *** **** *** *** ********** ****** or ******* *****, ****** ** ****** *** ********* ** *** their *** ******** ****** ******. ** ** *****, **** **** drawbacks, **** ******* ******* / ***** ************ ***** **** ******* reduction ** ***** ******* *** ** ****.

Surging **** ******* - $*** ******* ****

****'* ******* ******* **** $*** ******* ** **** ** $*** million ** ****, **** ** **** *****, ****** ** ******* sales ********** $*** ******* (** * $***+ ******* ******* *** rate). *******, **** ** ********* *********** * ******* ********* *** 7+ ******* ******* ****.

*** **** ******** ** **** ****'* ******* ******* ** **** ~5% ** ***** ** ****, **** ** ***** ********* * days ** **** ******* (****** ****** ******* ******* ***** ***** competitor's **** **** ******** **** / ******* **** ******). *** table **** ****'* ********** ***** *** *********:

*** **** ***** ***** *** **** **** *** **** ******* over *** **** * ***** (**** *** ******** ****** *** each ** / ******* *******):

Share ********

******* ** ******** **** ** #* ** ** ** ****** sales **** **** **% ** *** ******, ** **** ******* from***** ** **** / **** *****************:

******* ** *** ******** **** ****** * ******* ******* ** Arlo's ******* ********, **** ******* / ******* ****** ******* ******.

$378 ******* ** **********

****'* $*** ******* ** ***** **** *** ***** ************. *** example, ********* ** $***+ *******, ******* ** ~$***, ******** ** ~$400 *******, ****** ** ~$*** *******, ***. (*************** ******* / ********** *********).

*** ***** ***** ******** ** ****'* ******. **** ***% **** year ****** *** *********** *** ~**% ****** *** *** **** few *****, **** **** **** ******** **** $*** ******* *** on ***** *** ** $* ******* ** ******* (******, ** we **** ******* ** *** **********, **** ***** ***** *****).

Marketed ************** ********* ** $*.* *******, ****** **** ****

**** *** ******** *** ~$*.* ******* *** *** *****, ***** public, ***** ***** ** **** *****. ** ********, ** ******* is ********** $*.* ******* *** ****,** *** *******:

****** ******** ******** ******* **** ******** ****Arlo ***** ****** ** ****** ** $*.* *******, topping the price Alphabet's Google paid for Nest. Google bought Nest Labs in January 2014 for $3.2 billion. Nest makes smart thermostats, smoke detectors, security cameras and other devices.

**** *** **** ******* ** ***% **** **** **** *** each ** *** **** ***** *****, ******** ****.

"******* **** ****** ******** ** **** **** **% ** * revenue **** ** ***** $*** *******," ** **** ** * report ** ******* *********. "**************, ** ** ******* * ******* growth **** ** **% *** ****** ****, ** ***** (****) revenue ** ***** $*** ******* ** ****** ****. **** **** 1% ** *.*. ********** *** ** ****, ***** ***** ** huge ****** ***** *** ****." [******** *****]

* *****-******* ****** ********* *** **** ******** *** ********* ****** high ****** ******* *** *** ******* ** *** * ******* for ****. ****** **** ********'* ******* *** ***** $*** *******, they ******* ***** **** ********* ** $*.* *******, ***** ** be ******* ***** ******* **** *** ** *** **** ** Avigilon's ********.

Amazing ***** / ****** *** *******

**** ***** *** ***** **** ******* ** **** ******* *** not ******* ** ****** **** ******* / ******* **** **** cameras. **** ****** * ********** ************ (***** ** ******* **** ** ****)** **** *** ~$** *******. ***** *** ***** *** *** seen **** **** ** * *******.

*******, ** *** **** *** ***** ***** ********, ** ******** interest ** ***** ************ *** ****** ** ********* ******* ***** to **** ****** ****, ******** **** *******'* ****** ******* ********.

Competitive ******* ***********

*********** *** *** ******* ** *** ******** ***** ************ ****** now ********* *** ******** ** **** ******. *** ** *** past ****, ******** ******** **** **** ** ******.

***********, *** ******* ****-**** ****** ****** ** ***** ** **** robustly. *** ********* ** ******* ** *********** **** *** ********* the ********* ** *** ***** ****** *** *** ******** *** going ***** ****'* ********** ********. **** ***** ** * ****** ship **** ****** **** $* ******* *** **** *** **** likely ** *** ***** ********* ** ****** ***** ** *** use ***** *** ******* ***** ******* ****.

Vote / ****

Comments (15)

* ******, ***** ** ****, * ****** ******* *** ** these **** ******. ** *** ** ********** **** ****** ** get *** ***** ** *** ******* ** * ********** ***** we ******* **** ** *** **** ** ****. ** ** one ** *** *** ****** *****, *** *** **** **** video, ** **** *** ******* ******** ** ****** ******* *** kink ** ******* ** **** **** ***. ******* ** ** a ******** ** ****** ** ***** *** ** *** ** restaurant ****** **** ***'* **** ** **** *** ****. * guess **** ** *** ** *** **** ******* ** *** instant *******. ** *** ***'* **** ** **** *** ********* else ****** *** **** ** *** **** ***.

*** ** ** ********* **** * ****** ******* ********* ***** technical ****** **** *** **** **** **** **** ********* ** their *****, *** ****** ********* **** ** ******. ** ***** is **** **** ** ***** ******* *** **** **** ** mouth.

*** * ** ******* **** *** **** *** ********** ** it **** **** ***** ******** *****: ****** **** ********. **** also *** *** ***** *** ******** *****. ***** **** ** setup *** **** ** ******. **** ** **** *** **** a ****** **** ******** **** ******* ***** ** ******* ** right *** ** ***** **********. **** ** *** **** ***. The ******** ****** *** ********* ** ********* ** *** **** but **** *** *** ** ***** ** *** ** ****! Awesome!

** **** ***** **** ***** **** *** **** *** **** a ****** ********* ********** ** ********* ********* *** ****** ******. The ***** **** ********* ** ********* *** * ****. ** put ****** **'* ** ********** *** *** ** ******* *** normal ***** **** ** ****** **** **** ***** ** *** customers **** *** ******* ** ** *** *** ** ****.

*********, ** *****, **** ********* *** ***** ***'* *******...

****** *** * ***** ********,***** **** *** ******.

***** *** ** ******. * ***** ********* ******* ** *** on *** ***********. ****** **** ******* ******* *** ***** ******* reports ** *** *********** ***** * ****** *******. *** ******** post *.*. ********* ** **** *******.

******, *** ** *** ******** **** ***** **** *****, **'* not ************ **** ******* *** ******. *** ***** ***** *** having * ****** ******* **** *** *** ******, ** ***** in *** ***** ****.

****** *** * ***** ********, ***** **** *** ******...

‘******* ******’ ** * ************ ** ********** ** ****:

*** ****** ** **** ***** ** ***** ******* * *** recently ** * ****** ***** *** * *** ** **** camera ** *** *********** *******. ****** *** ****** ******** ** huge *** ***** *******. **** ****** **** ***** *** ***** would *** **** **** **** * ** * ******* *** this ***** **** ********** ************ ** ***** ******* ********.

***** **** ** * *** ****** ************ *** ******* ** **** ** ***** ******* **** **** getting ******* ** **** ******? *'* ****** ******** *** **** here...

** *** *****, ******** ***. ***** *** *** ** *** traditional ***** *** ***** *** *** **** ******** ** ***** the ******** ***. *******, ****** **** **** *** *** ********** in ******** *********** ** **** **** ******* **** ***** *** wirefree *** *** *****.

**** **** ***** **** ** *** ***** ****, ***** ***** for *******. ***** ********* ***** ********** **** *** ****** *** asking *** *** ********** **** **** ********. **** *** ** fairly ***** *** ***** ***** (***********, ***, *********) ** ** after * **** ******** ***** **** **** ****** ********. *******, they *** * **** ****** ** ********* ** ******** ** the *******.

********* **** ********* ******** ******** ** **** **** ** ******* we'll *** *** ******* **** ****** ** ***** ***** ***** in ******* *********** ** ************* *******. **** ***** ********** ****** in **** ******/**** ******** ********* ***** ****** ********* *** **** demanding ************.

*********** ******* ***** ** **** ********* * ***** *** *** always **** ******** ***** ******* ******** ********* * ***, ** has ***** **** *** ***** ** ******** ******** *************** *** these ******** *******?

****'* ** *** *** *** *** **** ********. *******, ** ******* ** ** ~**% **** **** ****, driven ** ***** ******** ** ******** ***** *** ********* ***********:

*******/******** *********:

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