ADT Hurt By Solar Deal, Cuts Costs Steeply (Q3 2023)

Published Nov 03, 2023 14:26 PM

Just a few months after divesting its commercial business for $1.6 billion, ADT has admitted major problems in the $800 million it spent acquiring a solar business less than two years ago.

IPVM Image

In this note, we examine ADT's latest move and investors' reaction.

Executive *******

*** ** ******* **** ** ** its ** ***** ******** ** ******** to ************* *********** ** *** ******** ******** *** ***** ***. *** ******* ********** **** *** remaining ******** ********** **% ** *** solar *******. ** ******* ** **** the ***** ******** **** **** ******** in *** ****** **** ** **** with *** **** ** ****** *****-***** ***** ***** ******* **** a *********** **** *** ******** **********, SunPower.

***** ******** *** *** ********** ******** in **, *** ******* ******* **** it **** *** ** *** $*.* billion ******** **** *** **** *** additional **** ** ****** *** ****. It *** ******* *** *** ******** ratio ** *.* ***** **** *.* times ** *** *** ** ****.

******* *** *** ******* *************, ***'* core *** (******** *** ***** ********) sector ** ************* ****** **** * 6% *** ****** ** ******* *** EBITDA *** ********** ****** ****** ****** the ****** ** **%.

Stock ******** ********

***'* ***** **** **%+ ** *** day (***. *) ** ******** *** Q3, **** *******, ********** ******** ********* toward *** ******* ***** ** *****.

IPVM Image

*******, ***'* ***** ** ***** **** almost **% ***** ** ******** ****** and ******** *** ***** ******** ** the *** ** ****.

IPVM Image

Plan **********

**** *** ******** *** ***** ********,*** *** *********** **** ***** **** *********** *** cross-selling ** *** *********:

** **** ****** * ******* *** customers ** *** ***** ******* ****, and ** * ****** ******, **** than * ******* ** *** ********* surveyed ********* ******** ** ********** ******* solar ****** *** ***** *****. **** sizeable ******** ******* ** ** ***** opportunity *** ** ** **** *** Solar *********** ***** **** ********* ** new ******** ******* *** *** *****.

Downsizing ** *** ***** ********

*** ***** **** ****** *** ******** from ** ****** ** * ******, and *** ********* ******** *** ******-********** ones **** ******* *** **% ** its ***** *******, *** *******'* *** James ******* **** ** *** ******** call:

** ******* *** ******** **** ******** solar *********, ** **** ****** ** streamline *** ********, ******** ** *** top-performing ******* *** ************* *** ************** and ******** ** *** ******** ***********.

** **** ** **** ****, ** are ****** ********* ***** ** *********** our **** *********. ** **** ** reducing **** ** ******** ** ** states ** ** ******** ** **** states, **** *** ********* ******** ************ approximately **% ** *** ******* *******.

*** ******* *** **** ********* **** change ********** *** ** *** ****** chain ********, ******* ****:

** **** ********* ***** ******* ********** as **** ** ** *** ****** chain ********.

*** ******** *** ***** ******** ** the *** ** **** ************** ****** **** **** *** ***** worth $*** ******* ** *** **** of *** ***********.******* ******** ** *** ********* ****** the ************* *********** ** *** ***** in *** ****:

** **** **** ************ ** *** solar ***********, ***** *** *** ***** up ** *** ************. ** ******** to ********** ** ********* **********, *** solar ******** ****** ********* ** *** pressure **** ****** ******** *****, ***** is ********* ******** ******** *** ****** practices.

*** ********** **** **** $** ******* of ********** ***** *** *** ***** the ******* ******** * $** ******* EBITDA **** ** *** **** *******, the *******'* *** ******* ******* *****:

*** ***** ****** ******* ** $** million **** ** ******** ****** **** of $** *******. *** *** ******* geographic ********* *** ******** *********** **** reduction, ******** **** **** ** ******* of ********** ***** **** *** ***** business.

******* ********** **** *** ** ***** "attracted ** *** ***** *****" *** expects ****** ** *** ******:

** ****** ********* ** *** ***** space, ***** ** ******** ******* ** approximately *% ********.

Expanding **** *****-***** ***** ****** ***** *******

******* **** ********* **** ** ** expanding **** ******* ****** *********** **** *** ******** competitor, ********, ** *** ********* ***** ********:

** ***** ********* ******-********** *********** ** are ********* *** ******* ******** ** include *****-***** ***** ** ****** *******.

** **** *** *** ** *** lease *******, **'** ******** *** ******* closely.That's *** *********** **** ** **** **** ********. [Emphasis added]

*** ****** ** ** ******** ** a ********** ***** ***-**-***** **** ** the ****** **** * ****-******** **** environment:

** *** **** **** ** *** equation, *** ****** ** **** **** experiencing *** **** ***** ** ***; a ********** ***** *** ***; *** sit-to-close ****. **** ** **** * sales *** *** ** *********** ** the ******* ***** ** ******** **** a ******** **** ******** ***** ****, give ** ****, **** ** **** they *** *****. **** ***-**-***** ********** was ********* ** *** ************ ** 20%. *** **'* ****** ***** *** in **** ******* *** ****** ***** where ******* ****** *** ***.

*** ****** ** *** ***** ******** is "***********," *** *** ** ****** "early ******** *****," *** "**** ***** shoots" **** **, ******* *****:

**** ******** ***** ** ** **** effectively ******* ** ***** *******. *** launch ** *** ***** ******* ** mid-October *** **** ***********, ****** **** a ***** ****** ****. **'** ****** third-party *** ******* ***** ** **** 50% ** ******* ****** **** **** promising **************

We **** **** ***** ******** ***** **** *** ***** *******. It doesn't work in every single market, [but] in the markets in which it's launched, we see some green shoots.

*** ********** **** ***** ** "******* very *******" *** *****-******* ***** ***** product *** ********* ** ******* **** to **** ******* *********, ******* ****:

**** **'** ***** **measure ****, **** ******* ** *** ******* ** ******* *** ***** *******; *****-******* *** ***** *******, *** *** ********* ** *************. We're going to keep a close eye on the business. As you know it's been well below our expectations. And we'll measure -- reconvene and measure progress in January and make some decisions on the go-forward path then. [Emphasis added]

Turning **** **** ******** ** ** ****

******* **** **** *** ******* ** turn *** ***** ******** **** **** positive ** *** ****** **** ** 2024:

** ****** *** ********* ****** ** these ************* ******* ** ** ******* and ********** ** *** ******* ********* results. ** ****** ***** **** ***** to **** ************ *********** ** *** first **** ** **** *** ** turn ******** ** *** ****** ****.

****** ***** **** *** ***** "******* the ******** *******," *** ** *********** the "****-****" ** ****** **** ** turn *** **** **** ******** ***** in ****:

** *** ** *** ******, ** talked ***** *** ***** ******** ***** cash **** ******** ** *** ****** half ** **** ****, ***** *********** the ****-**** **** ** ********* ** the ********, [*****] ** *** ******* down ****** ******* ****.

** ** ****, ** ******, ******* the ******** ******* ** ***** ******* to **** **** *** ******** ********** is ******, *** *** ****-**** ** soon. ** ** ******* ** **** the ******* ** **** ** *** first **** ** **** **** *** then **** ******* ** **** **** positivity, *********** ******** *** **** **** that ** ********* ** *** ******** remarks *******.

Debt ******* **** ******** **** *** ********** ****

*** **** * ********** **** ** divest *** ********** ******** **** *******,****** ******** ******** *** ** ** cut *****. *** ******* ********* ** *** most ****** ******** **** **** ** used *** $*.* ******* ******** **** the **** ** ****** ****:

** *** ******** *** **** ***** both *** ******** ** $*.* ******* from *** ********** *********** *** ** additional *** ******* **** **** ** hand ** *** *** **** *** an ******** *** ******** ***** ********** the ******** *****.

*** ******** ***** ** *** **** to *.* ***** **** *.* ***** at *** *** ** ****, ******* said:

*** **** ** *** ***** ***** until **** ** * ****** ** our ****** ******** **** *****. **** to ****, ** ******** ************* *.* billion ** ****. ***** ******* **** reduced *** ******* *** ******** ***** to *.* ***** ** * ******** basis, **** **** *.* ***** ** the *** ** ****.

*** ******* ******* ** ******** *** debt ******* *** ***** *** ******** ratio ** * ** *****, ******* said:

** **** ******** **** ******* **** we ****** ** *** **** ** additional *** ******* ** *** ***** 2024 **** ********** ** **** ****-***, bringing *** ***** **** **** ********* to ************* $* *******.

** ********** *** *** ******** ***** continuing ** ******** ******* ***** ***** or *****.

*** ******* **** *** ******** ** interest ******* ** **** ** ****, Porpora *****:

** **** ******* ** **** **** the ********* ** ******** ******* ** over $*** ******* *** ******* **** of **** ** ************* *% ***** 2026.

Little *********** ****** **** ********** *** ********** ********

******* ******* ********* **** *** ********** of ***'* ********** ******** *** ****** impact ***** **** **** *** *************:

*** ********** ******** *** ****-************. *** so ***** **** ** ****** ***** folks, ** ****** ******. *** ******** is ******* ******** *************.

*** ****** ******* ********** **** **** no ****** **** ** ******, ******* added:

***** *** **** ****** ********, *** we're ******** ******** ***** ** *** shared ******** *******. ***** ***, ***** is * ********** ******* ********* ** place, ***** ** *** ********* ******* to *** *****. **** ***** *** -- ** *** **** ***** ** months. **** ******** *** **** * couple ** ******. **** **** ** long ** ** ******.

*** **** **** *** ** ********* and **'** *** *** *********** ** provide *******, **'** ** ****** * hard **** ** ******** **** *** eliminating *** ******** ** **.

CSB *********** ********

**** *** ***** ************** *** ********* restructuring, *** ******** ******** ******* **** its **** *** ******, **** ******** from *** ****** **** *** ***** Farm ***********:

*** ******** ****** ********* ** ***** 34 ******* ** *% *** *** quarter ****** ** ********* *******, ********** cost ******* *** ***********, ********* ******* service ******** *** ******* ** ****** success *****.

Lower **** ********

*** ******* *** **** ****-**** ******** due ** * "***-****" ******** ****** coming **** *************, ******* *********:

*****, ** *** ********* ******* ****-**** guidance ** ******* *** **** ** our ********** ******** ** **** ** updating ********* ***********.

***timing ** *** ******* ******** ******* and certain accounting adjustments, specifically reallocated **** ***** **** *** *** ******* *** ************ **********, is expected to have a modest one-time negative impact in 2023.

**** ** *** ****** **** *** lowered *** ****-**** **** ******** **** year. *** ******** ****-**** ******* ** now $ *.** - $*.** *******, down **** *** $*.* - $*.* billion **** **** ** ** **** and $*.* - $*.** ******* **** down ** *** ***** ** *** year.

IPVM Image

Down ~**% ***** **** ***** ******

*** ****** ******* ****** ***** ***** ****** ** *************. ******* *** ******* ****** **** moves (*** ******** ********** ************,*** ****** ****,*** ***** **** ****, **** ***** ***********, ***.), *** still ****** ********** ******** *** ***** price:

IPVM Image

Comments (3)
Avatar
Brian Rhodes
Nov 03, 2023
IPVMU Certified

*** *****-***** ** ******** ********* ******* solar ** *********** ********* *** **** fascinating ** *****. ****** **** ****** into *****, ***** *** * *********** all *** *** (****** **** **** for *****/******** *********) *** **** **** that ******** *** ******* *** ********** ****** **** * competitor ** ****.

*'* *** * ***** ********, ** I **** ** ********* **********, *** my ************* ** ****'*** ********' - ******* **** ******/******* electricity ** *** **** -** ***** **********/************/******** ** **** ******, which ******* *** ***** **** *** solar *******. ** ****** *** *** sell **** ***** *****, *** **** cost ** *** ****** ******* **** more ** * ******.

** ** ***** (**), ******* **** already ***** **** *** **** ********** companies **** ** *** ** *******/******** surplus *****, *** **** ***'* **** shutoff ****** ** ***** **** **** easily.

JH
John Honovich
Nov 05, 2023
IPVM

*** ******** **** * ******* ****** -*** *****-***** ******** ** **** - The ********

*** ********* **** ** ******** *** transmission ***** ****’* **** * ******** issue ****** *** **** ** ********* energy. *** *** ***** ***** ** so ********* **** ***** ** *** country **** ** ****** *** ** turn **** *** ******. ******** **** could **** *** **** ** ***** industrial-size **** *** ***** ****** ****** to ********, *** ***** ****** ** giving * **** ******** ** ****** who **** ***** *** ***** ****** and **** ** **** ** *** power ******* ******* *** ********. ***** all, *** ******** *** ****** **** of *****: ********** **** **** **** 15 ******* ** *** ****** **** big ***** ***** *** ******* ** percent **** *********** ******* ******,********* ** *** ***.

**** **********, ***** ****** *** ******** the ****** ******.************* *** *** ********, *** ** North ********, ***** ********* *** *********** ***** *** ******** *** ***** utility, **** ******, ** ***** * minimum ******* **** **** *** ********* and ****** *** ******** ** * way *** ********* *** **** ****** payouts.

(1)
LJ
Lee Jones
Nov 04, 2023
Support Services Group

** ******* *** *** ******** ** flawed **** *** *********. ********* ******* big ** *** “********** ***********” ** ADT ***cross-selling *** ********** ** ***** **************, ********* ***** *** *********. ********* ** ******** **** **** *** contract *********, ** ****** *** *******, could ** ********** (******** *********) *** to *** **** ** ********* ** police ******** ** *** *****-****.*** ** *** *****. *** ****** industry ** ************ **** *** ** millions ** *********** ****** ******** **** is *********** *** ************ *** *** system *** ******* ****** ******. ***** disruption ********** ***** *******.*** ***********… *** * **** ****** of *********.