ADT Stock Rises - Q4 and FY 2023 Results Examined

Published Feb 29, 2024 17:45 PM

ADT went through major changes last year - selling off ADT Commercial (now Everon) and exiting the solar business after buying it for nearly a billion dollars. Now, investors are rewarding ADT.

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Inside this note, IPVM examined ADT's most recent financials to examine its stock performance and what is improving for ADT.

Executive *******

**** ****** *** ****** ********' ******* consensus ** *** ****** ******** *******, it ***** ****** ********* ** ******** per ***** *** *** **** ********, including ** ******** *% ****** ** total ******* *** * *% ****** in ******** ****** ****** *** **** Consumer *** ***** ******** *******. **** comes ***** * *% ***** ******* decline ** *** "********** ********" (********* ADT **********) ** ****.

*** ***** ******* *** ***'* ***** price ** ***** **% ** *** day ** *** ** **** ******** call. **** ******** ***** *** ****** had ******* ****** ** ******* ** previous ****** *** *** *** ********** sale *** *** ***** ******** ****.

*** ******* **** ******** ****-******* ******* and ******** ** ******* *** ***** department, ********* ***** ****. **** * financial ********** **********, ***** *** **** positive ***** ** ***** ** *** stock ***********.

ADT ***** ****** ***** ********** ** *** ** **** *******

***'* ***** ***** *** ** **** than **% ** *** *** ** its ** *** ** **** ******** call *** ** ******* *.*%+ **** morning:

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***'* ***** *** ******** ** *** past **** ** *** ***** ******** hurt **, *** ********* ********* ********** after *** ******* **** *** *** Commercial ** *** *** ***** *** announced *** **** ** *** ***** business, *** ***** *********** **** *** the **** ****:

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************, ***'* ***** ***** ** ***** ~17% *** ******** ** *** ***** in ******** ******** *** ******* ********* *** ***** business:

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Dedicated ** **** **** ********

***** *** *** ********** ****-*** *** the **** ** *** ***** ********, ADT's ***, ********* *** ******** ***** DeVries, **** ** *** *******'* ** and ** **** ******** ****:

**** *** *********** ** *** ********** business *** *** ******** ** **** residential *****, ** **** ********** *** business ***** ***focused ** *** ********-******** **** ******** *** ***** **** ********. [Emphasis added]

Total ******* ********; ******** ****** *********

***'* ***** ******* ******** ** *% in ****, ********* * ****** ********** service *******, ****-******* ******** ************ ******* (+44%), *** * ***** ******* ** the ***** ************ ******* (-**%):

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*** ******** * **** ** $** million **** *** ********** ********** (********* ADT **********) ** *** **** ****** statement. *****, ***** ****** ******** ********** associated **** *** ***** ******** *** other ***********, *** *******'* ******** ****** from *** ********** ********** ** $*** million, * ***% *** ******. **** result ***** ***'* ******** *** ***** exceed ******* *********, **** ******** *** stock *********** ** *** *** ** the ******** ****:

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*** ***** ******* **** ****** *** guidance ***** *** ******* ******** ** its **** ******** **** ** ******** 2023:

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2024 ******** ******** ******** *********

*** ********* *** ******** *** **** in *** ******** **** ** ****, expecting * *% ***** ******* ****** in *** **** ******** *** ***** Business ******* *** * **% ******** in ******** ******** *** *****, ********* consensus ************:

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Progress ** ******* *** ***** ********

************ ** ******* ** **** ** is ******* *** ***** ********** **** $*** ******* *** **** than *** ***** ***. *** ******* has **** * *** ****** ** the *******'* ********,***** *** ******* ********* ********** ** past ******** *****. ******* **** ********* ******* ** its ******** ** ******* *** *******:

** **** ***** ********** **** *** less **** *** ********* ** *****, will ** **** **** *** ** the *** ** *** *******.

**'** ******* ** ********* ******** ****, installing *** ********.**'** **** *** ********* ***********, **** off *** *****. **'** ******* ** wind-down ********** **** ******* *** ********* and *** ******, ********** *** **** estate. *** **'** *** * ********** structure ****** *** ***** **** **** to **** ******** ***** *** **** line.

**** ******* ******

***'* ****-******* ********* ** ******* ****** for ******** *********' **********, ** ** means **** *** ******** ** ******** more ********* *** **** ********** ****** profits. ***'* *** ****** ****:

** ******** ** **** *********** ******** in ********* *** ********* ************ *** customer **********. ** ** *******, * would **** ** ********* ***virtual ********** *******, ***** ******** ***-**** *** ******** ******* * ********* ***** ** *** ******* **% ** ******* ******* ********* ****** *** *********** ** ******* * *****. In addition, we have further broadened our relationship with Google beyond the Nest hardware, with a focus on efficiency and customer experience, utilizing Google's AI technology platform to explore several opportunities across our business with early efforts focused on call center operations.

**'** ********* ******* ******* ****** ******* even ** ************ ***-*** *** ******** customers. **'** *** ****** *********** ********** in *** ********** *** * ***** say *** -- **** ***** *********** will *** ****** * **** ********* in ****.

**** ** *** *********** ** *** IT *****, **'** ***** ** *** in '** *** ******. *** **'** also *** **** ** ******* ** '25 *** ******. *** ****** *********** related ** ******* ** ***** **** the **** *****. [******** *****]

Google ***********: **** ************ *** ******** *** ****** *********

***'* *********** **** ******, ****** ** 2020, *** **** * *** ******* for *** ********. ******* ********** ** investors *** *** *********** ********** **** device ************ *** ******** *** ********* customer *********:

**** **** *******, ** *** ****prior ** *** ****** partnership, **%** *** *** ********* *** **-**** devices.

***in ****, **** ****** ** **%. So that's been a very important influence on improving our SAC efficiency and because customers who invest more at the time of installation also retain better. Our 4-year ********* ***** *** ********* **** **-**** ******* ** ***** **% ****** **** ***** **** ***** **** ** *******. So it's going well. Google products, customers who have Google products have a higher NPS, higher product satisfaction, more positive comments on functionality, dependability, even aesthetics. So we're continuing to feel good about the Google partnership. [emphasis added]

State **** ***********: ******* ***** *** ***** *** ** *** *****

***'* *********** **** ***** ****** ******* ********* *** *** *******. DeVries **** ******** ** *** *** connection ** ******** *** ***** *** upsell *************:

** ******** *** *********** ** ******* in ***** ** '**. ** *** about *,*** ***** ****** *** ****. We're *** ** ** ******. **** represents ***** **% ** ***** **** policies ** *****. ** **'** *** very **** *******. *** ** *** things **** *'** ****** ****** ** each ********** ***** ** ****** **** the *** ***** *** **** ********* to ** *** ****. * ***** we **** ***** *,*** *** ***** in ******* ** '**. ***** */* of *** ******* ******* ** ******, so ** **** ***** ***** ****. Customer ************ ** **** **** ** about **%, **% *** **'** ******* well **** ***** ****.

**** ** ***'* ******** **** ***** Farm ******* ****** *** *****, ******* explained:

**'** ***** ** ***** * ****** of ************ ** * ********* ******. Two ** ***** ****** **** ** a *** ********. *** ** * of ***** ******, ** **** ** a *****-*** ***** ****'* *********** ******** to ***** **** ********* *** **** had * ***** ***** ** *** past. ** **'** ******* ** **** a ****** ** *** ***** *** continue ** ********* ** *** ** states ***** ** ***** *******.

*** ***** **** ****, *** **'* not ** **** ** ********** ** ADT's "**-**-***-** (****)" ********, ********* ** DeVries:

*** *** ** **** ** ** opportunity *** ****** ***** *******. *** -- *****'* * *** ** ****** here. **'* *** ***** *** ****** pools *** ******** ** **** *** when *** **** ** *** ******* the **** ** ******** ******** *****, I ***** ** ******* ************ *********** to **. ** ** **** * small ********, **'** ***** ** **** -- ***** *** ********, **'** ***** to **** **** **** ******** **** assertively ** **** *** ****'* ********* of *** ****** **** *** **** mentioned ******* ** ***** ****.

*******, ********* ******* ******* *** ***** Farm ***** ***** ** ***** *** ADT ******* ** * ********* ******* model ******** ** "**-**-***-** (****)," ******* added:

** ** *** **** ******** **** State ****, **'* * ********* ***** than *** *********** **** ***** *** while *** **** *** ************* *** same, ***** **** * ****** *** higher, *** *** **** **** ** lighter. *** ******* *** *** * State **** ******** ** ** *** zone ** $**. *** *** **** to ******* **** ******** ******* *****'* very ****** ********* ******* *** **** little ***** ******* **** ***** ** much *****. ** ** **** **** the ****** ** ********* *** ********** on * *** **** ***** *** RMRs **** ** *******.

Progress ** **** *********

******* ******** ** * ***** ******* interview **** **** **** *** ********* were "*********" *** *** ******* ** *** debt ***** *** *********** *** ********** ****** ** *** down **** ** *** ******* ******* *** *** **** ******** in ******** *** **** *******, ** DeVries *********:

***** ****** ******* *** **** ** $2.1 ******* ****** ****, ** ******* 2024 **** ********** ******** *** *********** with *** ****-**-******** ****** ******** *****, now ** *.**.

******** **** ********** ********, *** **** generation *********** ** ***** **** ********** of $*.* ******* **** ****. ** thereby ******* *** *** ****-**-******** ****** ratio ** *.*% ****** *.*% ** the *** ** ****. ** *********** of *** ********, **** *****'* *** S&P ******** *** ********* **** ******* last ****.

******* **********, ***** *******, *** *********

*** ********* ***** ** ***** ********* and ********** $*** ******* ** *** shares ** *** **** ****** ******** call:

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********* ***'* ******* ********** ****** ***** forward, ******* **** **** ****** *** company **** ******** "*&* ** [***] core," ***** *******, ****** **** ****, and "********** *********** *******" ******* * focus *** *** ********** ****:

*'* ******** *** ******* ********** ****** as *******-***** *** *************. *** ***** are * **********, *** **** *********** outlined. *** ***** ** ******* ******, SAC, **** ** *** ***. ********, bulk ******* ********* ** *&* ** our ****. *******, ****** ** ******* to ************, *********, ***** ******* *** then ******, ****** **** **** ** still * ******** *** **.

**'** ******* ** *** ********** ** be ** ** ******** ** ***** by ****-***. ** *** ******** ***** is, **'** ***** ** ** -- we'll ** *** ****, **'** ** the ********. *** **** * *******-***** mindset *** *** ******* ********** *********** return, **'** ***** *** ******* ******* those * **********.

*******

*** **** *** ** ******* ** its ********** **** *********** ******** *** it *** *** ****** *********** ******* out, *** *** ******** ** *** much ** *** **** *** ******* for **** ********. *** *****, ** has **** ********** **** ******, **** investors ********** *** ******* (*** ***** is ***** **** ~**% **** **** it **** ****** ** ****). ** ADT *** *********** ******** ******* ******, it ***** ***** *** ** *** multi-year ***** *********.

Comments (2)
JH
John Honovich
Feb 29, 2024
IPVM

*********, **** *********! * ** ******* to *** *** *** ********** *** residential ****.

** *********** ********: ** *** ****** Buchanan **********, ** ********* ******** *** surprised ** *** **** ** *** got ***** *** *** ***** ****, pointing *** *** *** *** ****** were. ***'* ***** ***** ** $* to $* *******, *** **** **** nearly * ******* ******* ** *** solar ****.

** *** *****, * ** ***** investors **** **** ******** ******* ****** they *** ****** **** ****** ****** now **** **** **** *********** *** business.

LJ
Lee Jones
Feb 29, 2024
Support Services Group

** *** ******* ** **** *** the ******** ** *** ********* **** react **** **** ******** **** **** don't **** ****** ******** ** ***** alarm ******.... **** ** ** ******** trending *** ****** *** *******, ****** they **** **/******** ********, ******* ** over **% ***** ****** *** ********** of *** **** ******. ******** ** customers *** *** ********* *** ******** response. *** ******* ** *** ** ADT ****** ***** ****, ** "********" attrition, ** "*******" *********, ***** ** easy ** **********, ** **** **** done *** ******* *****.

(1)