ADT Slides Back, Disappointing Results, Poor Commercial Performance

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Joey Walter
Published Aug 06, 2020 15:24 PM

While ADT had an incredible start to the week, driven by the Google investment, ADT has since slid back, now disappointing investors plus poor commercial performance.

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In this note, we examine why ADT's stock price has slid, including their reliance on residential and challenges to penetrate commercial, as well as their most important growth factor, recurring revenue, decreasing as well.

Overview – ****** ************

*** ****** ********* ******* **** ************** * ***** **** ******** ****:

* *** **** ** $*** *******, compared ** ***** ****’* *** **** of $*** ******* *** ***** ******* 2020 *** **** ** $*** *******.

********, *** *** ******* ******* ** $5.05–5.3 ******* *** ******** ******** $*.** billion ** ***** **** **** ********** projected.

Stock ***** ********

***** ***'* ***** ****** **** ***** $9 * ***** ** * ***** Monday **** ** $**+, *** *******'* stock ** *** **** ***** $**. While ***** ** ******** ** ~**%, the ***** ******* ******* ***** **** it ***** ** ** ****.

Recurring ******* (*&*) ****

*** ******* ********* ******* **** ******** to **** ** * "********* ** M&S *******". *&* (********** *** ********) is *** **** ********* ******* ** ADT's ******* *** ****** ********* ** home ******** *** **********, ** *** company *****% ** *********.

********* ******* **** *% **** **** year, * ******** **** ******* ******* revenue ***** ** *% **** **** year:

***** ******* *** $*,*** *******, ** 4%, ** $** ******* ****-****-****. ********** and ******* ******** ******* (“*&* *******”), which ********* $*,*** ******* ** ***** revenue, *** **** *%, ** $** million **** *** **** ****** **** year.

*******, **** *** ******* ** ***** "best ** ********" ******** ***** ** over *,*** ** ** ************* *** maintenance *** **** ** **** ********* and **** *********** ******* **** ***.

Commercial **** "********, *** **********"

*** **********, ***** *** *** **** investing ******* ** *** **** *** years **** ******** ************, *** **** 14% ** ** **** **** ****, but ***'* *** ****** *** **** "deferred, *** **********" ***********.

*******, *********** *** * ***** ****** in **** * ******* **** *** company ** ************:

** ******* *** ****** **** ** commercial **** * **% ******* ****** rate ******* ******** ****** ********* ** March ** *****-** ******* **** **** play *** ** ***** *** ******* with *% ******* ******.

** *** '** ********** ***** *******' chart *****, ********** ******* ******* **** 16% ** **** **** *******, * clearly ************* ******:

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******, *** ********** **** ****** ********** with *** ********** ******** *** *** rest ** *** ****, ******:

*****, ** ****** ******** ** ****** and ******* *********** ******* *** ********* of *** ****, ****’* ***** **** our ********.

*******, *** ********** **** *** ***** bullish **** **** ***** **********:

**’** ***** **** **** ** ******** ADT ********** ** ** **** ******** over *** **** ****. ** *** focused ** *** *********** ** *** Hawk. ** *** * *** ******* milestone **** ********* **** **** *******. We ******** ** **** ** ****-** M&A, **** ******* **** ** *** ongoing ******** **** *** ** *** opportunistically ********* ***** *******.

*******

*** ****** ********** *** ******* * bolster *** *** ********* *******. *******, the ****** ********* ***** *** *********** questions ***** *** **** *** **** do ** **** *** *********** *** commercial **********.

Vote / ****

Comments (5)
Avatar
Ross Vander Klok
Aug 06, 2020
IPVMU Certified

*******, **** *** ******* ** ***** "best ** ********" ******** *****

** **** ** **** **** *** hanging ***** *** ** **** *** doomed.

(4)
(9)
UM
Undisclosed Manufacturer #1
Aug 06, 2020

*** **** ****** ** * ***** investor, **** *** *** ******** ** ADT ********** ** *********** ***** ******* in ****** ** ***'* ***** ** things ***'* *******. ****** * **** to ******* **** ***-**** *********** *** ADT, ***. * ***** **** *** in **** ******** **** ****.

(2)
UI
Undisclosed Integrator #2
Aug 06, 2020

* ***** ******** ******* *'* ******** it **** ** **** ***** ******* some ********** *******.

(1)
(1)
(3)
LJ
Lee Jones
Aug 07, 2020
Support Services Group

****** **** ******** ** *** ****** Back…. ***** ** *** ****/****** ************** **** *******, *** ***. * ***-**** **** ** ***** produces **** ***** ** ******* ******* and ********. **********, *** **** ************ can ****-**** **** ***** ** ********* revenue & ********. *** ***** ******* to **** ** ***** **** ******** “unit” ********* (*** ****** “*******” *********). For *******, *** *** ****** **** in *** *********** *****, ***********/****, ******* their ******** **** ********* **** ** or **** **%, * ***** ************ to ***** ****** **********. *** ***** refuses ** ****** ***** **** ******** unit *********, ***** ** ******* ** above **%, *** *** ******** **.*%. (industry ******* ** *-**%).** *** ****, *** **** **** cost ** ********* **** **** ****** RMR ******** ********* *** ******* **** RMR ************ ******** ******. >>******: *** *****; ******* ******** *****

(2)
UI
Undisclosed Integrator #3
Aug 07, 2020

*** **** ***** *** ***** ** do ** ***** **** *** **** when **** **** ***** ***** ** do ***** ***********. **** **** ********** fix ***** ******* **** ****.

(1)
(1)