ADT Stock Surges - "Leading The Commercial Space"

By John Honovich, Published Nov 15, 2019, 08:05am EST

Don't call it comeback... but maybe call it a commercial provider.

ADT, whose stock dropped by as much as 2/3rds since IPOing in 2018, has now doubled in price since summer 2019.

While the company's stock price challenges and general residential market struggles are still there, ADT is now in the midst of a run, fueled by what ADT's CEO says is the company 'leading the commercial space'.

In this note, we examine the moves and the outlook for the commercial security market vs competitors JCI / Tyco IS, Convergint and Securitas.

"Leading *** ********** *****"

*** ********** **** ********** bullish ***** *** ********** space ***** ******* ********** in *** *********** ******.** *** ** **** investor's ****, *** ***** ********** about *** ******** *** opportunity ** **********:

*** ***** ********* ** our ********** ********, ***** grew ****** ****** ** 17% ** ** ******* basis.

**** ******* ****** ** extremely ***********, **** ******** to *** ******* *********** market ******, ***** ** surely ****** ******, *** based ** ***'* ******* large **** ** ********** (greater **** * ******* dollars ****** ******* **** in **********).

*** ****** ******-***** ****** I ********** ******* *** portion ** ****-**-**** ******** derived **** ******** ********* to **%.

******, ********** ** ******* as * ******* ** ADT's ******* ********, **** ~25% ******* ** *** year ** *** **%. Indeed, *** ******* ********** to ******** ** ****** a **** *********** **** of ***** ********.

***'* *** ***** ******** about *** ****** ** commercial *** ********* ******* smaller *********:

*** ******** **** ** see ** *** ********** business ** ****** *** a ********** ***********. *** as ** ******** ** grow *** *********** - commercial ******** ** * pretty **** ****, **'** pretty ******* ** *** future, ********* ** * fairly ********** ****** *** a ****** ***** **'** going ** ** **** to ******** *** ***** and *** *********** *******.

Competing ******* *** / **** **, **********, *** *********

***** ** *** * lot ** ***** *** effort ***** *** **** the ********** *********** *****, ADT ***** * ***** deep-pocketed ********* **** ******* ambitions:

** *** **** ****, the ********** ****** ** far ********* **** *** guarding *** *********** ****** and ********** **** ****** increasingly ********* ** ******** operations ** ** ********* to ****** **** ********.

*******, ** ** **** to ******* **** *** of ***** ********* *** be ************** ********** ** there ** **** ** much ********** ******** ** be **** *** ** is ******* ******* ******** multi-billion *********** *** ******* against ******* **** ******* niche ***********.

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Comments (14)

** * ************ * work **** *** ** those *********. * *** the ****** ***** *** into *** *****. *** is ********* *********, *** succeeding. **** ** *********** ADT *** ********** *** the *** **** *** trying *** ******* ** win *** ********. ****'** also *** *** **** seem ** ** ** the **** *** ************ the ****.

********* *** *** ********* are *** ***** ** sit ****** *** ************ the ****** ** ***** success, *** * ***'* see **** ******* ***** the *** **** ***** of ******.

* **** **** *** these ********* ** ****. The **** ********** * see, *** **** ********* have ********* ***** ******, is **** ********* *** Convergint *** ******** ******* on ********** ***** ********** that **** ******* ********* regionally ** ********** *** large **************. *** ** happy ** ** ***** a ****** *** ** ft ********* **** ***** video *** *********. ** I *** *** ********* more ******* *** ******** and ***** ******* **** the *** ******** ***********.

** ***** *** *** of *** *****. ******** 101 ** ************ * rising ********** ** *** market **** ** "********". I ******'* ******** ** employer ** * *** national ********** *** * can *** ** **** a ***** ******** **** is ************* *** **. We ************ **** ********** as * ************* ** hard ** ***** *****. I ***'* ***** **** have *** ********** ** scale ****** ***** **** are ********** ** *** owns ****.

*** *** **** ****** companies *** ***** ****** walkout *** **** ******* of *** **** ********** of ********** ******** ** our ******. *** ** the **** ********** **** we **** ** *** region.

****** **** ****** ** both *** *** **** recently * *** *** that **** (**** * national ***********) *** **** less ***** ******* **** us *** ******* ** around. * ****** ***** they **** ** *** granted. ****. ******** **** are *********** ** ** experience. *** ******* **** the ******** ******** *** also **** * **** experience. * **** ***** in **** *** ** looking ** ***** *** in *** ********** ***** and * ***** ****'** well ** ***** ***.

*** ************ ********/******* **** includes ***** **% ********* type *********, *********** *** commercial, ********* **** ** the ****** ************. *** decades *** *** ******** models ***** ****** *** local ****** ** ** their ****** ******* (**-*** site ********) ** ********* if, ** ** ********* exists, *** ******* ** an *********. *** ********** trend ** ****** **** or ** ****** ******** to *********/******** **** *******, when ****** ** ********** firms *** ******* ******** alarm *******. *** *********** is **** ******** ********* and ***** ********* ********. Note, *** **** *** report ***** ******** **** attrition, ***** ** ******** to ** **** **%, and *******. ******* ****** company, ***********, ******** ******* from ******* **, *** we ******* ** *** headed *** ******* * due ** **** **% customer *********… *********** *** “subscription *******”. *** **** pockets **** *** **** revenue *** *********; *** lots *** **** ** debt; *** *** ******* the ******* ***** ******* of ***** ****.
******: *** *****; ******* Services *****.

*** **** ******* **** add **** ******* *** customers; *** **** *** lots ** ****; *** not ******* *** ******* rapid ******* ** ***** core.

***'* *** **** **** their ****, *.*., ***********. Can **** **** * successful ****** ** **********?

****…. *** “****” ****** are *** **** *** residential *** **********, ** emergency ******** ** * customer **** ** ******** to ******** ***** *******. Many ********** ******* *** still ********* *****, *******, commercial ********* ********* *** afford *** ******* **** to **** ******-******* ************ and/or ******* ******** ********. Most *********, *********** ** commercial, ******* **** *** paying *** “**** ********”, and *** *** **** they ***** ** *** reality. **** ********** ******** site ******** **** ******* on *** **** **** issues.

*** “****” ****** *** the **** *** *********** and **********

**, *** ********** *********** they *** ****** *** more ***** *** ****** centric ****** **** ********* / *****.

* *** ** **** specific. *** ***** ** moving ****** ******-******* ** 911 **** ******* ****** site ******** ** *** enforcement. **** ****** ********** firms ******* **** *** technology ** ******* ******-*******…. BUT **** ******** ***** are *** **********. ******** of ******** *****, **** and **********, **** ******* their ****** ** ** in **********, *** **** response, *** “****”.. **** disruption ** *** **** is ********-****. ********* *** expecting **** ********, *** not ******* **, **** high *********. **** ******** blame *** **** *** should ** ******* ***** alarm ********. **** *** is ***** *****… ** their ****** **** *********** investment ** “********** **** monitoring”. **** ** * totally ********* ********! **** fire ******* *** ******** by ********* **** **** term **** ****** ********* and **** *** *********… and ******* ********** **** interactive ********** *** **** department ******** (*** **** of ********** ***** ******). We ******* ********** ** the ***** ******** ***** be **** ** ******** the ***** **** ********** for ***** ********* ***** customers *** *********.

**, *****, *** ********** business *** * **** smaller ********** ** ******* related ** ****** ********** / ****** ************ / police ********. **** ** what *** *** *********** from ***** ** ****, most ***** ********** ***** most ** ***** ******** budget ** ***** *** access, ***** **** ******* monitor **********.

*** ***** ** ** another ****** ** *** 11 **** ***** ** published **** *******:

***** ****** ********* *** vary **** **** *** for ***, *** ** on * ***.

** ***** ******* *** stock **** **** ** the ****** ******, *** return ** *** ***** end **** **** ******** their **** *********/********* ********. We *** **** ******* explanation *** *** ***** toward ***** ****** *********** from *** “****** ***********” with *** ****** ********** segment ** *** ***** industry. ***** *** ********* Sovereign ********. ************** *** incur ***** ********* ** they ** *******; *** no ********* ** **** DONOT ******* ** *********/******** calls **** ******* ********** firms **** *** *** their ******* *********. **** 98% *** *****/******** ********-****…. powerful ********* *** **** or ** ****** ******** for ******** ** ******* property ***** *********. *** still *** ******* ******* deterrent **** *********** *** commercial *********.

...*** ****** ** *** lower *** **** **** disclose ***** **** *********/********* exposure.

* ***** ****** **** disclosure ** **** ** 5:00 ** *** ****** before **** ******* **** :)

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