ADT Stock Surges - "Leading The Commercial Space"

By: John Honovich, Published on Nov 15, 2019

Don't call it comeback... but maybe call it a commercial provider.

ADT, whose stock dropped by as much as 2/3rds since IPOing in 2018, has now doubled in price since summer 2019.

While the company's stock price challenges and general residential market struggles are still there, ADT is now in the midst of a run, fueled by what ADT's CEO says is the company 'leading the commercial space'.

In this note, we examine the moves and the outlook for the commercial security market vs competitors JCI / Tyco IS, Convergint and Securitas.

***'* **** ** ********... but ***** **** ** a ********** ********.

***, ***** ***** ******* by ** **** ** 2/3rds ***** ****** ** 2018, *** *** ******* in ***** ***** ****** 2019.

***** *** *******'* ***** price ********** *** ******* residential ****** ********* *** still *****, *** ** now ** *** ***** of * ***, ****** by **** ***'* *** says ** *** ******* 'leading *** ********** *****'.

** **** ****, ** examine *** ***** *** the ******* *** *** commercial ******** ****** ** competitors *** / **** IS, ********** *** *********.

[***************]

"Leading *** ********** *****"

*** ********** **** ********** bullish ***** *** ********** space ***** ******* ********** in *** *********** ******.** *** ** **** investor's ****, *** ***** ********** about *** ******** *** opportunity ** **********:

*** ***** ********* ** our ********** ********, ***** grew ****** ****** ** 17% ** ** ******* basis.

**** ******* ****** ** extremely ***********, **** ******** to *** ******* *********** market ******, ***** ** surely ****** ******, *** based ** ***'* ******* large **** ** ********** (greater **** * ******* dollars ****** ******* **** in **********).

*** ****** ******-***** ****** I ********** ******* *** portion ** ****-**-**** ******** derived **** ******** ********* to **%.

******, ********** ** ******* as * ******* ** ADT's ******* ********, **** ~25% ******* ** *** year ** *** **%. Indeed, *** ******* ********** to ******** ** ****** a **** *********** **** of ***** ********.

***'* *** ***** ******** about *** ****** ** commercial *** ********* ******* smaller *********:

*** ******** **** ** see ** *** ********** business ** ****** *** a ********** ***********. *** as ** ******** ** grow *** *********** - commercial ******** ** * pretty **** ****, **'** pretty ******* ** *** future, ********* ** * fairly ********** ****** *** a ****** ***** **'** going ** ** **** to ******** *** ***** and *** *********** *******.

Competing ******* *** / **** **, **********, *** *********

***** ** *** * lot ** ***** *** effort ***** *** **** the ********** *********** *****, ADT ***** * ***** deep-pocketed ********* **** ******* ambitions:

** *** **** ****, the ********** ****** ** far ********* **** *** guarding *** *********** ****** and ********** **** ****** increasingly ********* ** ******** operations ** ** ********* to ****** **** ********.

*******, ** ** **** to ******* **** *** of ***** ********* *** be ************** ********** ** there ** **** ** much ********** ******** ** be **** *** ** is ******* ******* ******** multi-billion *********** *** ******* against ******* **** ******* niche ***********.

Vote / ****

Comments (14)

Undisclosed Manufacturer #1

11/15/19 01:13pm

** * ************ * work **** *** ** those *********. * *** the ****** ***** *** into *** *****. *** is ********* *********, *** succeeding. **** ** *********** ADT *** ********** *** the *** **** *** trying *** ******* ** win *** ********. ****'** also *** *** **** seem ** ** ** the **** *** ************ the ****.

********* *** *** ********* are *** ***** ** sit ****** *** ************ the ****** ** ***** success, *** * ***'* see **** ******* ***** the *** **** ***** of ******.

Undisclosed Manufacturer #2

In reply to Undisclosed Manufacturer #1 | 11/15/19 05:13pm

* **** **** *** these ********* ** ****. The **** ********** * see, *** **** ********* have ********* ***** ******, is **** ********* *** Convergint *** ******** ******* on ********** ***** ********** that **** ******* ********* regionally ** ********** *** large **************. *** ** happy ** ** ***** a ****** *** ** ft ********* **** ***** video *** *********. ** I *** *** ********* more ******* *** ******** and ***** ******* **** the *** ******** ***********.

Undisclosed Integrator #4

In reply to Undisclosed Manufacturer #2 | 11/17/19 05:13pm

** ***** *** *** of *** *****. ******** 101 ** ************ * rising ********** ** *** market **** ** "********". I ******'* ******** ** employer ** * *** national ********** *** * can *** ** **** a ***** ******** **** is ************* *** **. We ************ **** ********** as * ************* ** hard ** ***** *****. I ***'* ***** **** have *** ********** ** scale ****** ***** **** are ********** ** *** owns ****.

Jim FitzGibbon

11/15/19 10:49pm

*** *** **** ****** companies *** ***** ****** walkout *** **** ******* of *** **** ********** of ********** ******** ** our ******. *** ** the **** ********** **** we **** ** *** region.

Undisclosed End User #3

11/16/19 02:52am

****** **** ****** ** both *** *** **** recently * *** *** that **** (**** * national ***********) *** **** less ***** ******* **** us *** ******* ** around. * ****** ***** they **** ** *** granted. ****. ******** **** are *********** ** ** experience. *** ******* **** the ******** ******** *** also **** * **** experience. * **** ***** in **** *** ** looking ** ***** *** in *** ********** ***** and * ***** ****'** well ** ***** ***.

Lee Jones

Support Services Group | 11/16/19 06:51pm

*** ************ ********/******* **** includes ***** **% ********* type *********, *********** *** commercial, ********* **** ** the ****** ************. *** decades *** *** ******** models ***** ****** *** local ****** ** ** their ****** ******* (**-*** site ********) ** ********* if, ** ** ********* exists, *** ******* ** an *********. *** ********** trend ** ****** **** or ** ****** ******** to *********/******** **** *******, when ****** ** ********** firms *** ******* ******** alarm *******. *** *********** is **** ******** ********* and ***** ********* ********. Note, *** **** *** report ***** ******** **** attrition, ***** ** ******** to ** **** **%, and *******. ******* ****** company, ***********, ******** ******* from ******* **, *** we ******* ** *** headed *** ******* * due ** **** **% customer *********… *********** *** “subscription *******”. *** **** pockets **** *** **** revenue *** *********; *** lots *** **** ** debt; *** *** ******* the ******* ***** ******* of ***** ****.
******: *** *****; ******* Services *****.

John Honovich

IPVM | In reply to Lee Jones | 11/16/19 07:05pm

*** **** ******* **** add **** ******* *** customers; *** **** *** lots ** ****; *** not ******* *** ******* rapid ******* ** ***** core.

***'* *** **** **** their ****, *.*., ***********. Can **** **** * successful ****** ** **********?

Lee Jones

Support Services Group | In reply to John Honovich | 11/16/19 07:43pm

****…. *** “****” ****** are *** **** *** residential *** **********, ** emergency ******** ** * customer **** ** ******** to ******** ***** *******. Many ********** ******* *** still ********* *****, *******, commercial ********* ********* *** afford *** ******* **** to **** ******-******* ************ and/or ******* ******** ********. Most *********, *********** ** commercial, ******* **** *** paying *** “**** ********”, and *** *** **** they ***** ** *** reality. **** ********** ******** site ******** **** ******* on *** **** **** issues.

John Honovich

IPVM | In reply to Lee Jones | 11/16/19 07:44pm

*** “****” ****** *** the **** *** *********** and **********

**, *** ********** *********** they *** ****** *** more ***** *** ****** centric ****** **** ********* / *****.

Lee Jones

Support Services Group | In reply to John Honovich | 11/17/19 07:58am

* *** ** **** specific. *** ***** ** moving ****** ******-******* ** 911 **** ******* ****** site ******** ** *** enforcement. **** ****** ********** firms ******* **** *** technology ** ******* ******-*******…. BUT **** ******** ***** are *** **********. ******** of ******** *****, **** and **********, **** ******* their ****** ** ** in **********, *** **** response, *** “****”.. **** disruption ** *** **** is ********-****. ********* *** expecting **** ********, *** not ******* **, **** high *********. **** ******** blame *** **** *** should ** ******* ***** alarm ********. **** *** is ***** *****… ** their ****** **** *********** investment ** “********** **** monitoring”. **** ** * totally ********* ********! **** fire ******* *** ******** by ********* **** **** term **** ****** ********* and **** *** *********… and ******* ********** **** interactive ********** *** **** department ******** (*** **** of ********** ***** ******). We ******* ********** ** the ***** ******** ***** be **** ** ******** the ***** **** ********** for ***** ********* ***** customers *** *********.

John Honovich

IPVM | In reply to Lee Jones | 11/17/19 12:03pm

**, *****, *** ********** business *** * **** smaller ********** ** ******* related ** ****** ********** / ****** ************ / police ********. **** ** what *** *** *********** from ***** ** ****, most ***** ********** ***** most ** ***** ******** budget ** ***** *** access, ***** **** ******* monitor **********.

John Honovich

IPVM | 11/26/19 06:40pm

*** ***** ** ** another ****** ** *** 11 **** ***** ** published **** *******:

***** ****** ********* *** vary **** **** *** for ***, *** ** on * ***.

Lee Jones

Support Services Group | In reply to John Honovich | 11/27/19 08:15am

** ***** ******* *** stock **** **** ** the ****** ******, *** return ** *** ***** end **** **** ******** their **** *********/********* ********. We *** **** ******* explanation *** *** ***** toward ***** ****** *********** from *** “****** ***********” with *** ****** ********** segment ** *** ***** industry. ***** *** ********* Sovereign ********. ************** *** incur ***** ********* ** they ** *******; *** no ********* ** **** DONOT ******* ** *********/******** calls **** ******* ********** firms **** *** *** their ******* *********. **** 98% *** *****/******** ********-****…. powerful ********* *** **** or ** ****** ******** for ******** ** ******* property ***** *********. *** still *** ******* ******* deterrent **** *********** *** commercial *********.

Undisclosed #5

In reply to Lee Jones | 11/27/19 08:48am

...*** ****** ** *** lower *** **** **** disclose ***** **** *********/********* exposure.

* ***** ****** **** disclosure ** **** ** 5:00 ** *** ****** before **** ******* **** :)

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