ADT Stock Surges - "Leading The Commercial Space"

Published Nov 15, 2019 13:05 PM

Don't call it comeback... but maybe call it a commercial provider.

ADT, whose stock dropped by as much as 2/3rds since IPOing in 2018, has now doubled in price since summer 2019.

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While the company's stock price challenges and general residential market struggles are still there, ADT is now in the midst of a run, fueled by what ADT's CEO says is the company 'leading the commercial space'.

In this note, we examine the moves and the outlook for the commercial security market vs competitors JCI / Tyco IS, Convergint and Securitas.

"Leading *** ********** *****"

*** ********** **** ********** ******* ***** the ********** ***** ***** ******* ********** in *** *********** ******.** *** ** **** ********'* ****, *** ***** ********** ***** *** strength *** *********** ** **********:

** **'**brought *** **** ** *** ** *** ************* ********, ADT Legacy Protection One, Red Hawk, Aronson, all of our tuck-in acquisitions. And selected amongst all of these very great companies, the most talented leaders. And they, together, are leading *** ********** *****. [emphasis added]

*** ***** ********* ** *** ********** business, ***** **** ****** ****** ** 17% ** ** ******* *****.

**** ******* ****** ** ********* ***********, both ******** ** *** ******* *********** market ******, ***** ** *********** ****** digits, *** ***** ** ***'* ******* large **** ** ********** (******* **** a ******* ******* ****** ******* **** in **********).

*** ****** ******-***** ****** * ********** brought *** ******* ** ****-**-**** ******** derived **** ******** ********* ** **%.

******, ********** ** ******* ** * portion ** ***'* ******* ********, **** ~25% ******* ** *** **** ** now **%. ******, *** ******* ********** to ******** ** ****** * **** significant **** ** ***** ********.

***'* *** ***** ******** ***** *** future ** ********** *** ********* ******* smaller *********:

*** ******** **** ** *** ** our ********** ******** ** ****** *** a ********** ***********. *** ** ** continue ** **** *** *********** - commercial ******** ** * ****** **** clip, **'** ****** ******* ** *** future, ********* ** * ****** ********** market *** * ****** ***** **'** going ** ** **** ** ******** our ***** *** *** *********** *******.

Competing ******* *** / **** **, **********, *** *********

***** ** *** * *** ** money *** ****** ***** *** **** the ********** *********** *****, *** ***** 3 ***** ****-******** ********* **** ******* ambitions:

** *** **** ****, *** ********** market ** *** ********* **** *** guarding *** *********** ****** *** ********** will ****** ************ ********* ** ******** operations ** ** ********* ** ****** more ********.

*******, ** ** **** ** ******* that *** ** ***** ********* *** be ************** ********** ** ***** ** only ** **** ********** ******** ** be **** *** ** ** ******* whether ******** *****-******* *********** *** ******* against ******* **** ******* ***** ***********.

Vote / ****

Comments (14)
UM
Undisclosed Manufacturer #1
Nov 15, 2019

** * ************ * **** **** all ** ***** *********. * *** the ****** ***** *** **** *** space. *** ** ********* *********, *** succeeding. **** ** *********** *** *** Convergint *** *** *** **** *** trying *** ******* ** *** *** business. ****'** **** *** *** **** seem ** ** ** *** **** for ************ *** ****.

********* *** *** ********* *** *** going ** *** ****** *** ************ the ****** ** ***** *******, *** I ***'* *** **** ******* ***** the *** **** ***** ** ******.

(5)
(2)
UM
Undisclosed Manufacturer #2
Nov 15, 2019

* **** **** *** ***** ********* as ****. *** **** ********** * see, *** **** ********* **** ********* sales ******, ** **** ********* *** Convergint *** ******** ******* ** ********** level ********** **** **** ******* ********* regionally ** ********** *** ***** **************. ADT ** ***** ** ** ***** a ****** *** ** ** ********* that ***** ***** *** *********. ** I *** *** ********* **** ******* the ******** *** ***** ******* **** the *** ******** ***********.

(1)
UI
Undisclosed Integrator #4
Nov 17, 2019

** ***** *** *** ** *** above. ******** *** ** ************ * rising ********** ** *** ****** **** is "********". * ******'* ******** ** employer ** * *** ******** ********** but * *** *** ** **** a ***** ******** **** ** ************* for **. ** ************ **** ********** as * ************* ** **** ** reach *****. * ***'* ***** **** have *** ********** ** ***** ****** where **** *** ********** ** *** owns ****.

JF
Jim FitzGibbon
Nov 15, 2019

*** *** **** ****** ********* *** watch ****** ******* *** **** ******* of *** **** ********** ** ********** business ** *** ******. *** ** the **** ********** **** ** **** in *** ******.

(1)
UE
Undisclosed End User #3
Nov 16, 2019

****** **** ****** ** **** *** and **** ******** * *** *** that **** (**** * ******** ***********) not **** **** ***** ******* **** us *** ******* ** ******. * really ***** **** **** ** *** granted. ****. ******** **** *** *********** in ** **********. *** ******* **** the ******** ******** *** **** **** a **** **********. * **** ***** in **** *** ** ******* ** break *** ** *** ********** ***** and * ***** ****'** **** ** their ***.

(1)
LJ
Lee Jones
Nov 16, 2019
Support Services Group

*** ************ ********/******* **** ******** ***** 50% ********* **** *********, *********** *** commercial, ********* **** ** *** ****** acquisitions. *** ******* *** *** ******** models ***** ****** *** ***** ****** to ** ***** ****** ******* (**-*** site ********) ** ********* **, ** an ********* ******, *** ******* ** an *********. *** ********** ***** ** toward **** ** ** ****** ******** to *********/******** **** *******, **** ****** by ********** ***** *** ******* ******** alarm *******. *** *********** ** **** customer ********* *** ***** ********* ********. Note, *** **** *** ****** ***** customer **** *********, ***** ** ******** to ** **** **%, *** *******. Another ****** *******, ***********, ******** ******* from ******* **, *** ** ******* is *** ****** *** ******* * due ** **** **% ******** *********… unstainable *** “************ *******”. *** **** pockets **** *** **** ******* *** customers; *** **** *** **** ** debt; *** *** ******* *** ******* rapid ******* ** ***** ****.
******: *** *****; ******* ******** *****.

(1)
JH
John Honovich
Nov 16, 2019
IPVM

*** **** ******* **** *** **** revenue *** *********; *** **** *** lots ** ****; *** *** ******* the ******* ***** ******* ** ***** core.

***'* *** **** **** ***** ****, i.e., ***********. *** **** **** * successful ****** ** **********?

LJ
Lee Jones
Nov 16, 2019
Support Services Group

****…. *** “****” ****** *** *** same *** *********** *** **********, ** emergency ******** ** * ******** **** in ******** ** ******** ***** *******. Many ********** ******* *** ***** ********* types, *******, ********** ********* ********* *** afford *** ******* **** ** **** remote-witness ************ ***/** ******* ******** ********. Most *********, *********** ** **********, ******* they *** ****** *** “**** ********”, and *** *** **** **** ***** of *** *******. **** ********** ******** site ******** **** ******* ** *** same **** ******.

JH
John Honovich
Nov 16, 2019
IPVM

*** “****” ****** *** *** **** for *********** *** **********

**, *** ********** *********** **** *** buying *** **** ***** *** ****** centric ****** **** ********* / *****.

LJ
Lee Jones
Nov 17, 2019
Support Services Group

* *** ** **** ********. *** trend ** ****** ****** ******-******* ** 911 **** ******* ****** **** ******** by *** ***********. **** ****** ********** firms ******* **** *** ********** ** provide ******-*******…. *** **** ******** ***** are *** **********. ******** ** ******** sites, **** *** **********, **** ******* their ****** ** ** ** **********, for **** ********, *** “****”.. **** disruption ** *** **** ** ********-****. Customers *** ********* **** ********, *** not ******* **, **** **** *********. They ******** ***** *** **** *** should ** ******* ***** ***** ********. What *** ** ***** *****… ** their ****** **** *********** ********** ** “commercial **** **********”. **** ** * totally ********* ********! **** **** ******* are ******** ** ********* **** **** term **** ****** ********* *** **** low *********… *** ******* ********** **** interactive ********** *** **** ********** ******** (and **** ** ********** ***** ******). We ******* ********** ** *** ***** industry ***** ** **** ** ******** the ***** **** ********** *** ***** deterrent ***** ********* *** *********.

JH
John Honovich
Nov 17, 2019
IPVM

**, *****, *** ********** ******** *** a **** ******* ********** ** ******* related ** ****** ********** / ****** verification / ****** ********. **** ** what *** *** *********** **** ***** to ****, **** ***** ********** ***** most ** ***** ******** ****** ** video *** ******, ***** **** ******* monitor **********.

(1)
JH
John Honovich
Nov 26, 2019
IPVM

*** ***** ** ** ******* ****** in *** ** **** ***** ** published **** *******:

***** ****** ********* *** **** **** time *** *** ***, *** ** on * ***.

LJ
Lee Jones
Nov 27, 2019
Support Services Group

** ***** ******* *** ***** **** stay ** *** ****** ******, *** return ** *** ***** *** **** they ******** ***** **** *********/********* ********. We *** **** ******* *********** *** the ***** ****** ***** ****** *********** from *** “****** ***********” **** *** remote ********** ******* ** *** ***** industry. ***** *** ********* ********* ********. Municipalities *** ***** ***** ********* ** they ** *******; *** ** ********* if **** ***** ******* ** *********/******** calls **** ******* ********** ***** **** ADT *** ***** ******* *********. **** 98% *** *****/******** ********-****…. ******** ********* for **** ** ** ****** ******** for ******** ** ******* ******** ***** customers. *** ***** *** ******* ******* deterrent **** *********** *** ********** *********.

U
Undisclosed #5
Nov 27, 2019
IPVMU Certified

...*** ****** ** *** ***** *** when **** ******** ***** **** *********/********* exposure.

* ***** ****** **** ********** ** drop ** *:** ** *** ****** before **** ******* **** :)