Arlo's Stock Doubled YoY - SaaS Growth Analyzed
*** ***** ***,**** *** *******, *** **** *********** ****, *** its ***** ***** *********.
***** ***** ***,**** ******* ** ****, *** ** *** **** ****, its ***** ***** *** ******* ** $1+ *******, ****** ***** **** ~**% from *** ****.
***, **** ** ********** ****** **** growth. **** ******** **** ******** ****'* positioning, ***********, *** ********* ** **** (related, ******* ******* ** ** **** **** Positive ********).
Executive *******
**** ** ******* **** ********* **** pay *** ************* (********* **** *** in ***** *** **** *** *** consumer ******** ***** ****** *** *****), even **** *** ******* ************* ********** subscription ******, * ******* **** *** both **** *** *** ******* ******. Moreover, **** ** ************* ********** *** growth ******, ****** *** $*** ******* in **** ******* ** *** *** of **** ******, ** **** $*** million **** ****, *** * ********* CAGR ** ~**%. ** ******* **** is ********, ****** **** ****** ******* has ****** **** ***** ***********, ** Arlo **** **** ** ** ******** about ***** ********* *** *****-**** ****** undercutting **** **** ****. ************, *** company's ******* ******* ********* ** **%, and ***** * ********-******* **** ********, this ******* * **** ** ****** fewer ********* ** **** ************* **.
FY23 *******, **** *****
** ******** **,**** ********* *** ** **** *******, ************ **.*% *** ****** (** ~$210 *******) *** *********** *** ***** on ******* *** ****** ** **** subscribers. *******, ****'* ******* **** ** less **** *%, ** ** ******** on *** ~$*** ******* *****, **** the ******* ******* ********* ** **%.
************, **** ******** *** ***** ******* by *% ** **%. *** *******, Honeywell's **** ***** ****** *** **% (see***** **** **-*), *** ********'* ***** ****** *** ~50% (******** **** **-*).
**** **** ****'* "******* *******" *** ARR *** *** *****, ** **** calculated *** ** "****** *** ********* paid ******* ******* *** *** **** calendar ***** ** *** ****** *******, multiplied ** ** ******".
** *** ********** ******* *******,****'* ***, ******* *****, **** **** *** ******* ** due ** * ***** ******** *** "constrained ********* ******" ** *** **** region:
*** ******* ******* *** *** ****-**** of **** *** ************* $*** *******, down **% ****-****-****as * ****** ** *** ***** ** ******* ******** *** *********** ********* ****** ** *** **** ******. [emphasis added]
*** *******, ****'* ********* ******** *** distributor ** ******,********, ******* ** "****** ********* ****** and ******* ******** *****" ** ****, but **** ******* **** ******** **** return ** "****** ****** ** ***** 2024", ** *** ***** ****:
****** ****, *** ************* ******** ********* 39% ** *** *******. *** *** 2024, ** ****** *** ************* ******** base ** ******** ** ** * meaningful ******* ** *** *******.Our **** ******* *** **** ****-****-****, ********* ****** ** *** ******* ********, ********, *** ***** ****** ** ****** ********* ****** *** ******* ******** *****.
***** ** ******* ********** *** ********, we ****** **** ********’* ********* *********** activitieswill ****** ** **** ****** ****** ** ***** ****. [emphasis added]
New ****-***** *****
****** *** * ****** **** ****, Arlo's *** **** **** ***** *** long-range **** ** ** ****** "**** enough" *** *** ******* "*** ******* hit ** ********** ***** **** ******** [it] ******** [***] **** ***** **** targets" (******* ******* ******** **** **********). *** *******'* *** **** ** to ***** ** ******* ***********, $*** million ** ***, *** ">**%" ********* margin ** ****:
** ***** *** $*** ******* *** goal ** *** *** ** *** decade, **** ***** ** **** * CAGR ** ~**%. ***** ****, *** company *** *** * **** ** ~65%, *** ** ******* *** ******** for **** ** ***** *** **** target.
Stock ***********
****'* ***** ***** ** ********** *** is ** ~**% ***** *** **** financials *************, ********** *********' ********** **** the ******* *** **** *** *** goals:
*******, *** ***** ** ** ~***% YoY, ** ***** *****:
Subscription ***** *********
*** ************ ***** ******** ** *** of *** ******* *** **** *** able ** **** *** ******* ******* and, ** *********, ***, ** *** company's *** ****:
*** ******* ******* *** ** *** another ****** ** $**.* *******, ** increase ** $**.* ******* ** **% year-over-year,driven ** ****** **** ******** *** * ***** ******** ***** ******** ******* ** *** ****. [emphasis added]
*******, **** *** * "***** ******** across *** ** *** ****** ********** plans, *** ** *** ********* ****** a **% ** **% ********", ** he **** ***** ** *** ******** call. *** *******, ** *** *** of ****, *** *******'* ************ ****** for * ****** ****** *** ********* cameras **** $*.** *** $*.**, ************, and ***** *** ******* **** ***** increase, **** **** $*.** *** $**.**, respectively.
********, *** ******* **** ******* ******* price ******** ** ******* ****, ** it ********* *** ***** *** * single ****** ** $*.** (*** *.*** higher **** *** **** *****), *** is ******* ** ** ******* ******** in ****, ** *** *** ****:
** *** **** *ignificant ***** ********* **** ****. We made a ***** ********** ** ******* ** *** ********* ** **** ****, and now we're looking at adding significant functionality to all of the tiers of the plans to set ** ** *** *** **** ***** ********, ***** ***** *** ***** **** ****** ** **** ****, but that's something we look at every quarter. [emphasis added]
******, *** ***** **** **** ** believes **** ** "******* **** * ceiling" ** ************ ******:
************, **** *** **** ***** **** andARPU *********, whether that's organic or inorganic, moving into a new segment either way, we ***** *****'* ******** ***** * *** ** ****. Our pricing, our average ARPU, is $11.30 as we spoke about today. And, even in the security space, if you look at the traditional security market, a lot of the pricing to consumers is in the $40, $50, sometimes as high as $70 per month. And we feel we provide a superior user experience, a superior service with a lot more features and capabilities.
**, * ***** ** ****,we're ******* **** * ******* **** ** *** **** ****** before we start looking at potential adjacencies that where we can leverage the platform technologies that we have, things like aging in place or in the insurance market. [emphasis added]
Subscribers ******
******* ****** ************ ** *** *** service ******* ****** ** *** ******** in *** ****** ** ***********, ** Arlo ***** ~* ******* **** *********** (a ~**% ******** ******** ** **** - ~*.** ******* ** ~*.** *******). Moreover, ** *** ***** *** ****** of ****, **** ****** ~***,*** *** paid ******** *** ********* * ******* subscribers, **** ********* ** ******** ****:
***** ** **** ****, **** ** going ** ****** *** **** ******* of ***** **** *********** ******** *** will ***** ~*.* ******* **** ******** by *** *** ** ****, *** is ** **** ** ******* ** million **** ******** ** ****:
Risks *** ****
***** ****** *** ******, ****** ** price ********* *** **** ********** ******* growth, ** * ******** *** *** company *** ********* ** ** ***** new *****, *** ******** ******* ****** is **** *********** **** ******* *****-**** alternatives, ***** *** ******* ********* ********* from ****. ********, ***** *** **** risks **** ***** ********* ** ******** frustration *** ****** *****.
******, ******** *** **** ******* ******* to ***** ******* ***** ****** *** regions, *** *******'* ******* ******* ********* by ~**% **** ~$*** ******* ** ~$178 ******* ** *** **, ***** on ****'* ************. ***** **** **-*, **** ********* *** ******* ******* revenue ******** ** ****** **** ** was ********* ****** ** *********** *****:
*** ******** **** *********** ****** ** EMEA *** *** ******** ***were ********* ****** ** * ********* ** *** ******* ******* ****** (“****”) ** *** ******** ** ** ********* *********** ********** ** ********* ********* *********** *** ********* ********** ******, coupled with a shift in product mix, driven by the softening consumer demand as a result of current macro-economic factors and seasonality. This decline in revenue was partially offset by the revenue generated from the Essential 2 camera portfolio which was launched in the third quarter of 2023. [emphasis added]
**** ********** * *********** **** *** Arlo, ** *********** ****** ***** *******, it *** ** ****** ** ******** offering ***** *********** *****, ******* *** revenue *** *******. ******, **** ** its *********** **** **** ********* **** Arlo, **** ******, ***** ***** *********** **** * bigger *** **** **** ** ** decreased *** ****** ** ** ******* to **** **** ****** *****.
Arlo **. ****
************ **** *** ***********, **** **** a *** ** *********** ** **** their *********** *** *****. **** ** a *****-**** *********** ** ****, ** its ******** ****** ***** **** $**.** to $**.**, ******* ****'* ***** ********* product ** ~**% **** ********* **** Wyze's ***** ********* ***. *******, ****'* prices **** **** $**,** ** $***.**. Wyze's ************ ***** *** **** **** expensive **** ****'* (*** *******, ** charges $*.**/***** *** * ****** ******, while **** ******* $*.**/*****).
************, **** ** ********** **** *** gross ******* (**** ******** **** *** lower **** **%), *** ********* ** grow ******* **** *****, *** *** intends ** ******** **** *** ******** cash **** ********, ** ****** *** *********** **** ****. ****, ** *** other ****, ** ******* **********, *** higher ***** ******* **** **** (**%), and ************ **** ** ****.
*** **** **** *** ****, *******, is **** ** ******* * ********** similar ** ****'*. ** ******* ** be **** ** **** **** ***** Arlo's *****, *** **** ***** **** it's ******** ** ***** **** ******** sales *** **** ***** *** **** a ****** **** ********.
*** **** ********** ** ****, ***: