If you want to pretend to be a financial expert in security, just pontificate about the impending wave of acquisitions and nod knowingly about the wave of consolidations poised to sweep the industry. Repeat this year after year to build your credibility among the security illuminati.
This will work perfectly except that it is completely wrong and fails to come through every year, leaving these 'experts' promising next year will finally be it.
The reality is the opposite is happening, with conglomerates losing more power each year. Equally importantly, this trend will most certainly continue over the next decade.
Instead of seeing a rash of acquisitions, we are much more likely to see more break ups like Tyco/ADT and the recent surprise Ingersol Rand multi-billion security spin-out.
Nonetheless, we do project greater aggregation of power within the historically fragmented industry, however, driven by growing independent specialists at the expense of declining conglomerates.