Risks in Projecting Future Sales Growth

Author: John Honovich, Published on Aug 31, 2009

The past year clearly shows the impact the global economy has on the security business. Determining what happens next is clearly dependent on which of two paths the global economy will take:

  1. Gradual ******* - If the path of the last 6 months continues (China booming, the US Stock market skyrocketing,etc.), the economy will recover, growth will resume and conditions will resume to some level similar to 2005-2007.
  2. Drops **** ***** - If the rebound of the last 6 months proves unsustainable (China's boom is a bubble, the US stimulus is not enough, etc.), the economy could drop again with more severe impacts than the initial drop, given the weakened state of the current economy.
** ** *** ********** ** ****** ***** *** *********** *********** of ******* ******** *** *** ***** ***** ******** *******. *** instance, ** ******* *** *** **% **** ******** **** **** were * **** ***. ***********, ** ****** ***** *** ******* 30% **** **** * **** ***.

******* ** *** ***** *** ****** ******* *** ** ***** surveillance ****** ***********, *********** ** ******** *** *********** ********** ****** they ******* ******* *********** **** ***** *** ******* *******.

* ***** *** ****** ** *** *** ********* ***** ********. However, ***** *** * *** ****** **** **** ******:
  • *** ******** ****** **** ** ****** ** ******* **** *** general *******. *** ******** ****** **** * ****** **** ** slowdown (***** ******** *** **** ********* ** **) *** **** take * ****** **** ** ***** **. ********** *********** *** not ******** ******** (*.*., ** *** *** ********* ******* *** recovery) *** **** ********* ************* **** ********** ******* ******* ******** over ******** **** (** *****).
  • ********** *** *** **** ** *** ***** ****** *** ***** will **** ** ** ******* *** *** ******** ******* **** have ** ***. **** *** **** ** ********* ****** ** business *** ***** ** **** ** ** ***** ***** ******** 2, *** ******* ******** **** *****.
**********, ******** ****** ****** ** **** ********* ** *** **** of *** ******* *** ******** ******** ********** *********** *** *** immediate ******.
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