Risks in Projecting Future Sales Growth

By: John Honovich, Published on Aug 31, 2009

The past year clearly shows the impact the global economy has on the security business. Determining what happens next is clearly dependent on which of two paths the global economy will take:

  1. Gradual Rebound - If the path of the last 6 months continues (China booming, the US Stock market skyrocketing,etc.), the economy will recover, growth will resume and conditions will resume to some level similar to 2005-2007.
  2. Drops Down Again - If the rebound of the last 6 months proves unsustainable (China's boom is a bubble, the US stimulus is not enough, etc.), the economy could drop again with more severe impacts than the initial drop, given the weakened state of the current economy.
It is not sufficient to simply gauge the competitive differences of various products and the value those products deliver. For instance, IP cameras are not 30% less valuable than they were a year ago. Nonetheless, IP camera sales are growing 30% less than a year ago.

Because of the force the global economy has on video surveillance market performance, projections or forecast are essentially irrelevant unless they clearly specify assumptions made about the overall economy.

I could see either of the two scenarios above occuring. However, there are a few issues that will happen:
  • The security market will be slower to recover than the general economy. The security market took a longer time to slowdown (still dropping for most companies in Q2) and will take a longer time to start up. Government initiatives are not favoring security (i.e., no war nor terrorism driving the recovery) and most commecial organizations will prioritize revenue earning projects over security ones (at first).
  • Eventually the bad debt on the books across the world will have to be handled and the stimulus funding will have to end. This may have no practical impact on business for years to come or it could drive scenario 2, the economy dropping down again.
Ultimately, business people should be very cognizant of the role of the economy and discount specific quantified projections for the immediate future.
Comments : PRO Members only. Login. or Join.

Related Reports on Sales

US Government Ban of Dahua, Hikvision, Huawei Takes Effect Now on Aug 13, 2019
The 'prohibition on use or procurement' of Dahua, Hikvision and Huawei products and 'essential components' take effect today, August 13, 2019, one...
Proactive CCTV "Only Affordable Video Archiving Solution" Profile on Aug 12, 2019
Proactive CCTV is claiming to offer "the only affordable video archiving solution on the market", reducing the storage typically required for H.265...
Stanley Makes "Multi-Million Dollar Investment" Into Banned Hikvision Products on Aug 09, 2019
Just days from the US government ban going into effect, US mega-corporation Stanley has dramatically increased its imports of banned Hikvision...
Vivotek Revenue Soars on Aug 05, 2019
Vivotek's revenue has soared so far in 2019, growing 45%. Inside this note, we examine import records and see who is driving Vivotek's growth...
Online Video Surveillance Sales Comparison - Amazon, B&H, CDW, LTS, Super Circuits, More on Jul 31, 2019
IPVM has uncovered the key trends and top options being offered across commonly used surveillance sellers. How has the market shifted since we...
Ionodes Company Profile on Jul 31, 2019
What happened to Ionodes? With seasoned leadership from Jean-Paul Saindon founder of SmartSight and Dr. Michael Gilge, founder of VCS, back in...
Fujifilm Expanding Into Video Surveillance on Jul 26, 2019
While Sony continues to fade out of the video surveillance market and Canon continues to make huge investments into acquiring video surveillance...
Australia Security Full Show Report on Jul 25, 2019
IPVM went to Australia attending the 3 days of the Australia Security Exhibition: This was held at the ICC Sydney, as shown below: In this...
History of Video Surveillance on Jul 19, 2019
The video surveillance market has changed significantly since 2000, going from VCRs to ab emerging AI cloud era.  The goal of this history is to...
Anyvision Aims For 2022 Revenue of $1 Billion on Jul 17, 2019
Only 3 video surveillance manufacturers do a billion dollars or more in annual revenue - Hikvision, Dahua, and Axis. Now, Anyvision plans to join...

Most Recent Industry Reports

TMA Apologizes to Amazon / Ring on Aug 23, 2019
Not only is Amazon / Ring making major incursions into the residential security market, the organization representing the biggest incumbents, The...
China Dahua Replaces Their Software With US Pepper on Aug 22, 2019
What does a US government banned company do to improve its security positioning in the US? Well, Dahua is unveiling a novel solution, partnering...
Security Integrators Outlook On Remaining Integrators In 2025 on Aug 22, 2019
The industry has changed substantially in the last decade, with the rise of IP cameras and the race to the bottom. Indeed, more changes may be...
First GDPR Facial Recognition Fine For Sweden School on Aug 22, 2019
A school in Sweden has been fined $20,000 for using facial recognition to keep attendance in what is Sweden's first GDPR fine. Notably, the fine is...
Anyvision Facial Recognition Tested on Aug 21, 2019
Anyvision is aiming for $1 billion in revenue by 2022, backed by $74 million in funding. But does their performance live up to the hype they have...
JCI Sues Wyze on Aug 21, 2019
The mega manufacturer / integrator JCI has sued the fast-growing $20 camera Seattle startup Wyze. Inside this note: Share the court...
Dahua 4K Camera Shootout on Aug 20, 2019
Dahua's new Pro Series 4K N85CL5Z claims to "deliver superior images in all lighting and environmental conditions", but how does this compare to...
ZK Teco Atlas Access Control Tested on Aug 20, 2019
Who needs access specialists? China-based ZKTeco claims its newest access panel 'makes it very easy for anyone to learn and install access control...
Uniview Beats Intel In Trademark Lawsuit on Aug 19, 2019
Uniview has won a long-running trademark lawsuit brought by Intel, with Beijing's highest court reversing an earlier Intel win, centered on...
Suprema Biometric Mass Leak Examined on Aug 19, 2019
While Suprema is rarely discussed even within the physical security market, the South Korean biometrics manufacturer made global news this past...

The world's leading video surveillance information source, IPVM provides the best reporting, testing and training for 10,000+ members globally. Dedicated to independent and objective information, we uniquely refuse any and all advertisements, sponsorship and consulting from manufacturers.

About | FAQ | Contact