Is the Recession Really Over?

By: John Honovich, Published on Nov 06, 2009

Optimism continues to increase about a growing global economy and a rebounding security industry. There's little doubt that spending is heading back up across the globe after significant losses in the past 12 months. And, no doubt, more spending is better for businesses. [See a SSN segment interviewing security professionals [link no longer available] on the receding recession.]

Will Rising Spending Last?

Rising spending does not guarantee long term economic growth. Indeed, rising spending can mask major problems. For instance, so much of recent US economic growth comes from the housing credit [link no longer available] and the "Cash for Clunkers" program.

A Child Example

Imagine a 10 year old who measures success based on eating candy. The child uses his allowance to buy candy.

The child does not do his homework and the parent cuts the child's allowance.

At first, the child eats less candy and is depressed. Then the child returns to eating the same amount of candy by digging into his stash of candy and borrowing candy from his school friends. However, the child does not start doing his homework.

The child is back to easting as much candy as before but is this really a healthy situation?

The Future of the Global Economy

Making business decisions and forecasting industries is faced with similar uncertainty (as we note in our own IP video market forecast).

We see 3 possible paths:

  1. There never was any fundamental economic problems, this was just a regular recession and the economy should recover strongly and stably. That is, the child was doing their homework.
  2. There are fundamental economic problems but the short term spending is holding us over until we fix those problems. That is, the child is eating candy from his stash but will soon start doing homework and will be fine in the long term.
  3. There are fundamental problems, those problems are not being resolved and the short term spending is simply covering up the lack of progress. That is, the child is going to be in serious trouble as he runs out of his stash of candy and still does not do his homework.

If you are making business decisions, it's important that you determine your position on these paths. At least in the US, path 1 seems to be completely unrealistic. The problems were almost certainly fundamental and the only question is whether or not we are actually resolving them.

Related Reports

ISC West March 2020 Cancelled, Postponed to July 2020 on Mar 06, 2020
ISC West March 2020, scheduled to start in just 10 days, has been cancelled and show organizers are planning to replace it with a to be determined...
SIA Director Dismisses Coronavirus, Don't Cancel ISC West on Mar 03, 2020
SIA Director and ISS executive Janet Fenner has come out criticizing the lack of education and the 'mainstream media', arguing against canceling...
Train Your Team With IPVM Courses From Experts on Mar 01, 2020
You trust and use IPVM for reporting and research and you can also have your team trained by our experts. One of the most common requests our...
Freebie Face-Off: Rise of ~$30 Giveaways Examined on Dec 02, 2019
The freebies are growing. Verkada started this (see The Fastest Growing Video Surveillance Sales Organization Ever - Verkada) and now has given...
Knightscope Sells Just 1 Net New Robot In 6 Months on Oct 04, 2019
For the first half of 2019, US government records show that Knightscope has sold just 1 net new robots ('machines-in-network'), inching up from 52...
How Cobalt Robotics May Disrupt Security on Sep 13, 2019
While security robots have largely become a joke over the last few years, one organization, Cobalt Robotics, has raised $50+ million from top US...
"Stats Don't Lie" Says Deceptive IFSEC on Jul 30, 2019
While IFSEC has declared #statsdontlie and trumpeted seemingly skyrocketing visitor numbers, they are decieving about their show's problems. On...
Knightscope Adds Just 2 Total Customers In Past Year, Yet Raising Money at $300 Million Valuation on May 02, 2019
This is no longer funny. While Knightscope has laughed it up promoting robot selfies, joking about a 'suicidal robot', the man who attacked a...
IBM Shuts Down Intelligent Video Analytics on May 02, 2019
Abruptly, IBM has discontinued its Intelligent Video Analytics solution, it confirmed to IPVM. IBM's video analytics have faced recent media...
ASIS Sells GSX 2019 Education Sessions on May 01, 2019
New for 2019, ASIS is selling GSX education sessions, an ethically problematic approach and something we have not seen before in this...

Most Recent Industry Reports

FLIR New Coronavirus Prioritized Temperature Screening Camera Examined on Apr 03, 2020
FLIR has announced a new series of thermal cameras "prioritized for entities working to mitigate the spread of COVID-19 virus", the A400/A700...
ADI Branch Burglary on Apr 03, 2020
A security systems distributor branch is an odd target for burglary but that happened this week at ADI's Memphis location. Vehicle Smash &...
YCombinator AI Startup Visual One Tested on Apr 02, 2020
Startup Visual One, backed by Silicon Valley's powerful Y Combinator, aims to be "Your 24/7 Watchman" with advanced analytics and object...
Free IPVM Memberships For The Unemployed on Apr 02, 2020
IPVM is giving 3-month free memberships (regular price $99) for the unemployed, no questions asked. To get it, just contact us, your request...
Dahua Faked Coronavirus Camera Marketing on Apr 01, 2020
Dahua has conducted a coronavirus camera global marketing campaign centered around a faked detection. Now, Dahua has expanded this to the USA,...
Video Surveillance Trends 101 on Apr 01, 2020
This report examines major industry factors and how they could impact video surveillance in the next 5 - 10 years. This is part of our Video...
USA's Seek Scan Thermal Temperature System Examined on Apr 01, 2020
This US company, Seek, located down the road from FLIR and founded by former FLIR employees is offering a thermal temperature system for the...
Terrible Convergint Coronavirus Thermal Camera Recommendation on Apr 01, 2020
A week after Convergint disclosed falling revenue, pay and job cuts, Convergint is touting 'extensive research' that is either grossly incompetent...
The IPVM New Products Online Show April 2020 Opens With 40+ Manufacturers on Mar 31, 2020
IPVM is excited to announce the first New Products Online show, with 40+ manufacturers, to be held April 14 to the 16th, free to IPVM members,...