"For all new installations in SMB can we safely say 80% IP cameras with NVRs?"
I think that's very high / optimistic.
Taking a step back, it depends on what you mean by SMB. I generally think / categorize SMB to be 4 - 24 cameras, bigger than a home user but generally just 1 or 2 recorders at most. With that in mind.
In the US, the big box providers (like Costco) are major players for SMB. Most mom n' pop restaurants and independent stores I see use Costco type kits and they are almost all analog, primarily since the big box providers do not regularly stock IP on the shelves (which price is a big factor in).
If I had to guess for 2015 market breakdown, it would be more like 10-20% IP (in terms of units). The big trend in SMB is moving to HD analog. Not because the SMB customers know or care about specific technologies but because the suppliers are seeing that customers do want HD, with a simple install, and that HD analog is a much better route to delivering that.
Related IPVM research:
Two 8 camera mom & pop retail facilities: 100% analog, over the past five years.
Why? My opinion: the paupacity of clear information within the security industry.
Initial facility was set up by ADT in 2010. They recommended and installed analog. Nobody ever went wrong hiring IBM, right?
For the second facility, we reached out to a well regarded local security company who recommended Mobitix and came in at about $18K. Analog, while obviously less capable, came in at $6K. What absolutely wonderful capabilities would I get for that additional $12K?
Then I joined IPVM. There's an amazing world of information out there, for layman and professional alike :)
Pro Focus LLC | 08/18/15 10:46am
You will find that historically speaking, IP was making a push into the SMB market and getting closer to 50/50, but then analog HD arrived and slowed that growth. We currently are doing more HD-CVI installs than any other type. We have not installed an SD system for quite some time now, as HD-CVI has not only replaced low end IP (read no VMS, just cheap NVR), but also has completely removed the need for an SD analog product in our lineup.
Please note this is just my personal, anecdotal info and shouldn't be taken as gospel.