Axis Expects Only 15% Growth?

Here referring to the recent news on Axis (in Swedish).

So expectations are at 15% instead of 20% that is the management's targeted growth rate. Increasing competition and exposure to saturated markets the main reasons behind this development?

That sounds reasonable to me. Besides saturation and competition is the reality that it is hard to grow market share at a high rate when you are already approaching 1 billion USD in sales.

As you recall from their investor presentations, the low end market segment and non Western regions are viewed as their main growth drivers. Unfortunately, it is hard to see how they can compete well against the super inexpensive, often 'good enough' rivals in those spaces.

Very good points John. In order to justify those price premiums, they would have to do something quite differently and in a way that could not be imitated by the competition. Maybe making smart cameras that are easy to install is something they should concentrate (and not only partially) their efforts in.

If we assume then that the analytics functions will have huge demand in the next 5-10 years, would that market be anything that they can defend more sustainably (for example with intellectual property rights protection) or do you think it is a constant battle of ants for the unfocused (geographically or in product niches) global competitors as it seems now? For example the recent article you wrote, to me, suggests that the latter situation would be the more likely one.

Axis 'dream' scenario is that they get lots of quality, useful apps developed for their platform that does not run on their rivals. That way, users are driven to buy Axis cameras to run those apps.

On the plus side, they certainly have the most well developed apps program out there. No one is close.

On the down side, they do not really have any 'killer' apps yet that would drive significant adoption.

The key, then, is whether they can foster an ecosystem of apps that makes a difference. You know like the changing room one :)

Quality assessment as always John!

Any significant economic impact/growth arising from the apps sales seem to be a few years a way... Maybe they think they are selling iphones and instead they are selling more like flat screen TV's.