Subscriber Discussion

85% More Burglaries Solved Due To Personality Profiling?

U
Undisclosed #1
Dec 03, 2017
IPVMU Certified

This seems a little hard to believe...

Law enforcement agencies across the country are solving an average of 85 percent more burglaries after adopting a new profiling system. The statistics-based program designed at the University of South Florida in Tampa indicates that the manner in which a burglary is committed is linked to the type of person behind the crime....

New Burglar Profiles:
Organized: Suspect is male, 30 to 50 years old, and typically a repeat offender. He's generally employed full time and often meets potential victims on the job. As a "professional" burglar, his crimes are mostly premeditated and he brings tools such as a crowbar or lock pick to the scene.
Disorganized: Suspect is usually a young male and operates spontaneously, often due to a drug addiction. He regularly targets easy-to-pawn items (cell phones, jewelry, etc.) to make a quick profit. The haphazard offender may smash a window to break in, leaving incriminating evidence behind. This group tends to be well known to law enforcement for committing other crimes.
Interpersonal: Suspect knows the victim and may steal something personal, such as women's underwear or nothing at all. (Burglary is defined as "the intention to commit a felony" and does not require theft.) They might break in to show control and instill fear, possibly an ex-partner or a person of acute interest to the offender.
Opportunistic: Suspect is an amateur, often a juvenile, and takes advantage when finding an open/unlocked door, window or garage.

Thoughts?

JH
John Honovich
Dec 03, 2017
IPVM

On the one hand, the researcher behind this has solid credentials / experience, see her LinkedIn profile and her CV).

On the other hand, the source is herself:

She found that the agencies she trained solved 84.8 percent more burglaries after using the burglary profiles [emphasis added]

It would be helpful to see how this was calculated, etc.

Also, it is based on 6 smaller areas (Cheektoaga, NY, Duluth, MN, Daytona Beach, FL, Clearwater, FL, Winterhaven, FL and Pasco County, FL).

That said, obviously this is outside my area of expertise so can't even guess who law enforcement typically does this now and how her training might change things.

UM
Undisclosed Manufacturer #2
Dec 04, 2017

Doesn't sound much different than other profiling metrics I have heard about before, when taking criminology classes and in documentaries. I didn't notice anything that mentioned the amount of time the Profiles have been used. I thinks most researchers would agree it can take a significant amount of time to see if something really works and you can't always make a judgement on initial data.

Profiling has always been controversial because it's accused of being a self-fulfilling prophecy. If you only look at a certain demographic for crimes, you will always find examples of that demographic that commit those crimes while other demographics are looked over, giving a skewed result.

Maybe this is a better, more scientific way of profiling that can't be accused of biasness or discrimination.

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