Can ONVIF Lose?

In conversations with over a dozen manufacturers, the consistent theme I hear is a preference for ONVIF. Interestingly, the reason is always about ONVIF's fame/market share. Second most common point is Cisco joining ONVIF. Regardless of why this happened, the negative PR impact on PSIA from this is clear. 

The only two reasons I can see for ONVIF to fail at this point is (a) there are technical problems (i.e., implementing ONVIF's SOAP format is too much load for lower end cameras or (b) ONVIF delays. PSIA has lost momentum and unless significant numbers of PSIA members release production products soon, it's hard to see why PSIA survives.

Depending on how much traction HDcctv group gets, this may be a factor in spurring the ONVIF and PSIA to merge to strengthen their position against a common rival.

[Update 2011: ONVIF has clearly won and HDcctv has had no impact on this.]