Unrealistic Surveillance Market Growth Projections

By: John Honovich, Published on Jan 24, 2011

A January 2011 report provides an unrealistically bullish market projection for the video surveillance market. With over 20% annual projected growth projected over the next 5 years for the entire global market, this represents the most aggressive projection we have seen since the recession. On the one hand, this is a blessing for those who want a big number to show on their business plans / powerpoint slides. On the other, basing actual plans on this number is almost sure to lead to errors.

Previous to this report, the most recent uber-bullish surveillance predictions was from ABI who in 2009 said that global sales would rise from $19.4 Billion that year to $41 Billion in 2014. Indeed, the 2009 number was actually lower than their 2007 projection when they forecasted a market size of $46 Billion by 2013. Amazingly we still see the $46 Billion figure regularly in vendor presentations despite it being totally detached from reality. Ironically, after the recession, ABI dropped their projections dramatically now only projecting a $17 Billion market size in 2011.

In this new (Jan 2011) report from Research and Markets, they estimate that this 20.4% CAGR from 2010-2015 will expand the market to $37.7 Billion.

While it's quite feasible for individual market segments or even regions to grow over 20% annually for the next 5 years, this is extremely unlikely for the entire market as a whole. For instance, while IP network sales are growing robustly, analog sales are not. Even if IP grows 20% - 30% per year for the next 5 years, this will be heavily offset by flat or declining sales in analog.

The video surveillance business, as a whole, is fairly mature, so it's hard to drive double digit revenue growth across the board.

The other important element for any long term projection (i.e. 5 years) is the risk of a recession. Most forecasts we see assume no recession for the entire period, a risky proposition especially over a long term period.

For a more sensible long term global market prediction, see the Axis/IMS forecast that pegs growth at about 10% CAGR for the next few years.

Comments : PRO Members only. Login. or Join.

Related Reports on Sales

Top Manufacturers Gaining and Losing 2019 on Nov 18, 2019
2019 has been an explosive year for video surveillance, with the world's two largest manufacturers, Dahua and Hikvision, being sanctioned for human...
Hikvision USA Fights LTS on Nov 04, 2019
Hikvision's USA subsidiary is fighting with LTS, having recently quietly dropped LTS as an authorized distributor amidst ongoing face-offs between...
Axis Cracks Down On Illicit Channel Sales on Nov 01, 2019
Axis has stepped up efforts to crack down on illicit channel sales according to various industry sources, though, Axis denies this. Online sales...
Struggling Arcules Changes Chief Revenue Officer on Oct 29, 2019
Canon / Milestone spinout Arcules has struggled, now changing their Chief Revenue Officer, just a year after he came on board. The issue is not...
nFlux AI Startup Profile on Oct 28, 2019
nFlux, an Amazon, Google, and Microsoft funded AI startup told IPVM their mission is to build the most intelligent video analytics platform in the...
Knightscope Sells Just 1 Net New Robot In 6 Months on Oct 04, 2019
For the first half of 2019, US government records show that Knightscope has sold just 1 net new robots ('machines-in-network'), inching up from 52...
Critiquing Carnegie's AI Surveillance Paper on Sep 25, 2019
The Carnegie Endowment has issued an ambitious paper on the Global Expansion of AI Surveillance. While its aim is applaudable, the paper has...
RealNetworks SAFR Facial Recognition Profile on Sep 25, 2019
RealNetworks entered the surveillance market by giving away their analytics to schools for free, and is now targeting large commercial users with...
Directory of 70 Video Surveillance Startups on Sep 18, 2019
This directory provides a list of video surveillance startups to help you see and research what companies are new or not yet broadly known. 2019...
Schmode is Back, Aims To Turn Boulder AI Into Giant on Sep 16, 2019
One of the most influential and controversial executives in the past decade is back. Bryan Schmode ascended and drove the hypergrowth of Avigilon...

Most Recent Industry Reports

Top 2020 Trend - AI Analytics on Nov 22, 2019
170+ Integrators answered: What do you think will be the top industry trend in 2020? Why? For the 4th year in a row, AI/video analytics was...
Axis "Best Of The Best" 4K Camera Tested (Q1798-LE) on Nov 21, 2019
Axis has released their "best of the best" Q1798-LE bullet camera, touting "4K without compromise" with a large Micro 4/3" image sensor, custom...
Glass Doors and Access Control Tutorial on Nov 21, 2019
One of the biggest access challenges are locking and securing glass doors. Unlike wood or steel doors that can be modified to work with...
ISC East 2019 Show Report Day 2 on Nov 21, 2019
IPVM has finished in New York City covering both days of the ISC East 2019 show. Inside this report, we cover: Day 2 Traffic Centaur...
The Cowardly, Greedy "Leaders" of Video Surveillance - SIA on Nov 19, 2019
The video surveillance industry suffers from cowardly, greedy 'leaders' focused on maximizing easy money while undermining public trust. The...
Hikvision Dual Lens Face Recognition Camera Tested on Nov 19, 2019
Hikvision's Dual Lens Facial Recognition camera, claims that it "adopts advanced deep learning algorithm and powerful GPU to realize instant face...
Top Manufacturers Gaining and Losing 2019 on Nov 18, 2019
2019 has been an explosive year for video surveillance, with the world's two largest manufacturers, Dahua and Hikvision, being sanctioned for human...
Hidden Camera Detectors Tested on Nov 18, 2019
Hidden cameras are a growing problem as cameras become smaller, cheaper and easier to access. However, some companies claim to be able to detect...
Wyze Fires Back at JCI - Your Patents Are Invalid, Pay All Of Our Costs on Nov 18, 2019
Goliath JCI targeted startup Wyze this summer alleging the fast-growing consumer startup was violating a slew of JCI's patents. Now, Wyze has...