The Next Big Thing 2012

By: John Honovich, Published on Aug 12, 2012

In the past 5 years, megapixel IP cameras have sweeped the surveillance industry, changing the landscape and expectations of security users. While megapixel IP use will continue to grow, it has become quite expected.

Looking ahead 5 years from now, what will be the next big thing to take its mantle? In this report, we examine the top 5 contenders, breaking down their potential, barriers and most likely impact.

The Top 5 Contenders

Here's an overview of the top 5 contenders for the next big thing:

  • 10MP+ cameras - "Super" high resolution
  • Edge Storage - Eliminating VMSes by recording on board the camera
  • HD SDI - megapixel without the need for IP cameras
  • Hosted Video - recording in the 'cloud'
  • Video Analytics - 'real' video intelligence (finally)

Results - Readers Choice: Video Analytics - Next Big Thing 2012

Breaking it Down

Inside, we will break down all top 5 contenders.

Summary Recommendations

Here's a summary:

  • Biggest Upside but Riskiest: Video analytics, once it happens it will revolutionize the industry but when it does is still debatable
  • Best Bet Overall: Edge storage, which is now full steam ahead for replacing VMSes in small, simple deployments but may not be as big as video analytics if everything comes together
  • Most Likely to Happen: 10MP+ cameras, which are well on the path to mainstream use with incremental advances
  • Most Likely to Be a Dud: Hosted video, whose value proposition is to too close to edge storage but at a much higher cost.
  • Most Likely to Be a Niche: HD SDI, faced with too many competitive forces to become a major factor.

10MP+ cameras

Get Notified of Video Surveillance Breaking News
Get Notified of Video Surveillance Breaking News

Potential: Super high resolution has the potential to cover broader spaces and/or provide more detail over existing coverage areas. Today, while megapixel is the hot trend, overwhelmingly IP cameras are 3MP or less. Moving to 10MP, 14MP or higher, gives the potential for 3x to 5x more pixels.

Limitations: Looking over the next 5 years, limitations are fairly minimal. The biggest is likely affordable lens. Additionally, today, 10MP+ cameras CMOS cameras suffer from poor low light and WDR performance but gains in these areas are rapid.

Projection: While we do not see this as a 'game changer', 10MP+ cameras are likely to be quite common in 2017 with much improved low light and WDR performance. These will make an incremental improvement in covering large areas such as parking lots and perimeters.

Edge Storage

Potential: The biggest potential is to eliminate VMS servers; Secondarily is to complement existing VMS systems with redundancy and connectivity to sites that have a few cameras or have a low bandwidth / unreliable network.

Limitations: The biggest limitation is the difficulty of integrating with camera's edge storage. Unlike support of video streaming which is increasingly universal, VMS software has very little support for camera edge storage. Plus, integrating recorded video is far harder than live streaming video (much greater complexity). Secondarily, SD card storage is much more expensive per bit than hard drives (and will remain that way for the foreseeable future).

Projection: The big impact will come from camera companies using edge storage to eliminate the cost / complexity of managing a VMS server. In the past, camera companies offered server based VMS software (often for free) but with only modest success. As they eliminate the need for a PC entirely, this will become far more attractive for the large number of users who want basic surveillance functionality. For the rest of the market, edge storage will become an incremental advance for redundancy and overcoming connectivity restrictions.

HD SDI

Potential: To deliver the resolution of megapixel IP without the complexity of using IP. Plus, for smaller existing systems, the potential to reuse existing cabling.

Limitations: The two most fundamental are (1) not backwards compatible with existing DVRs, so requires a new recorder and (2) limited resolution to 1080p. Today, there are a host of other issues like limited vendor support, limited models and higher cost but all those can be resolved if the technology gathers momentum.

Projection: HD SDI will most likely max out as a minor niche given that it has 3 powerful forces against it - (1) the people most likely to value it are older techs who are retiring / losing power, (2) edge storage addresses the same target market - smaller camera sites - but with the powerful attraction of no recorder at all and (3) IP cameras can do a lot more - higher resolution, on-board analytics, panoramic imaging, audio, etc., that HD SDI cannot do.

Hosted Video

Potential: Biggest benefit is eliminating the on-site DVR / NVR with secondary benefits being secure, redundant storage in the cloud.

Limitations: Upstream bandwidth limitations and the cost of streaming / storing bandwidth in data centers. While this will certainly improve, increasing needs for more resolution will likely offset improvements there.

Projection: Hosted video is likely to be the biggest disappointment as it is just like edge storage but a lot more expensive. The differentiators it does have (like redundancy and eliminating worries about stolen recorders) are simply not enough to overcome the much higher price of these offering.

Note: We fully expect 'managed video' of locally stored video (whether on board cameras or inside NVRs/DVRs) to become commonplace but that is fundamentally different than hosted video (e.g. March's Managed Cloud offering). Read more about Hosted vs Managed video.

Video Analytics

Potential: Revolutionize surveillance from a primarily passive, forensic solution to a powerful, pro-active, real time detection system. The power of surveillance systems with video analytics will far supersede the improvements that megapixel delivered.

Limitations: Lots of them, still, legally, financially and operationally: (1) The OV lawsuits remain a black cloud over the industry. (2) New funding into the video analytic industry has nearly ground to a halt. (3) Performance, overall, is still quite bad.

Projection: 5 years is a fairly long time, for past failures to be forgotten, for computing advances to empower better analytic algorithms and for the OV lawsuits to be settled. All that noted, it may take to the end of the decade for video analytics to truly become a mass market force but once it does, it is a guaranteed game changer.

4 reports cite this report:

Top 2019 Trend - AI Video Analytics on Dec 10, 2018
160+ Integrators answered: What do you think the top industry trend will be in 2019? Why? AI / video analytics was the run-away winner with...
ISC West 2017 Best and Worst on Apr 10, 2017
IPVM went to Las Vegas, examining what vendors are showcasing and what is new. Attendance was up, according to the show, and was certainly well...
Security Cameras 2016 Review on Dec 23, 2015
In 10 minutes, this note explains the current state of security / surveillance cameras in 2016, reflecting new technology changes and market...
Vote Results - Next Big Thing 2020 on Sep 14, 2015
Over 230 integrators and manufacturers told us what they believe will be the next big thing in video surveillance 5 years from now, in 2020. The...
Comments : Members only. Login. or Join.

Related Reports

HD Analog vs IP Guide on Jul 16, 2019
For years, HD resolution and single cable signal/power were IP camera advantages, with analog cameras limited to much lower resolution and...
Video Surveillance History on Jul 19, 2019
The video surveillance market has changed significantly since 2000, going from VCRs to an emerging AI cloud era. The goal of this history is to...
Hikvision HDTVI Power Over Coax Tested on Feb 05, 2019
After years of delay, Hikvision's Power Over Coax (PoC) HDTVI models are finally shipping, aiming to make HD analog installs as simple as PoE, with...
Axis Supports HD Analog on Apr 15, 2019
In 2017, Axis declared 'Everything is IP': Now, in 2019, Axis has released support for HD analog, with their new encoders.  Why the change?...
Closed Cloud Cameras Trashed on May 13, 2019
When you buy a camera, do you own it? Not anymore. In the world of closed cloud cameras, you may think you are buying a camera but all you are...
False Verkada 'Unrivaled' Low Light Performance Claim Removed on Jun 12, 2019
Verkada falsely claimed that it delivered 'UNRIVALED LOW LIGHT PERFORMANCE' until IPVM questioned. In fact, Verkada's low light performance is...
'CCTV' Is the Past, Cloud Video Surveillance Is the Future on Jul 08, 2019
A fundamental shift is happening. For decades, video surveillance was overwhelmingly 'closed' and off the Internet. This is changing. More and more...
Axis HD Analog Encoder Tested on Oct 11, 2019
Two years after declaring "Everything is IP", Axis has released their first HD analog encoder, the P7304, with support for AHD, CVI, TVI, and SD...
Top 2020 Trend - AI Analytics on Nov 22, 2019
170+ Integrators answered: What do you think will be the top industry trend in 2020? Why? For the 4th year in a row, AI/video analytics was...
Video Surveillance 101 Course - Last Chance on Feb 20, 2020
This is the last chance to join IPVM's first Video Surveillance 101 course, designed to help those new to the industry to quickly understand the...

Most Recent Industry Reports

Motorola / Avigilon Drops ISC West on Feb 26, 2020
Motorola Solutions has pulled out of ISC West 2020 effective immediately, because of coronavirus concerns, IPVM has learned. This is done amidst...
Cancel or Not? Industry Split Over ISC West on Feb 26, 2020
The industry is split, polarized, over whether ISC West 2020 should run or be canceled. New IPVM survey results of 400+ respondents show heated...
Coronavirus Hits Sony, Bosch Says Switch on Feb 26, 2020
Sony's fall in video surveillance has been severe over the past decade. Now, they may be done. In this note, we examine Bosch's new...
Video Surveillance Cameras 101 on Feb 25, 2020
Cameras come in many shapes, sizes and specifications. This 101 examines the basics of cameras and features used in 2020. In this report, we...
Favorite Video Analytic Manufacturers 2020 on Feb 25, 2020
Video analytics is now as hot as ever, driven by the excitement of advancing deep learning offers. But what are actually integrator's...
Latest London Police Facial Recognition Suffers Serious Issues on Feb 24, 2020
On February 20, IPVM visited another live face rec deployment by London police, but this time the system was thwarted by technical problems and...
Masks Cause Major Facial Recognition Problems on Feb 24, 2020
Coronavirus is spurring an increase in the use of medical masks, which new IPVM test results show cause major problems for facial recognition...
Every VMS Will Become a VSaaS on Feb 21, 2020
VMS is ending. Soon every VMS will be a VSaaS. Competitive dynamics will be redrawn. What does this mean? VMS Historically...
Video Surveillance 101 Course - Last Chance on Feb 20, 2020
This is the last chance to join IPVM's first Video Surveillance 101 course, designed to help those new to the industry to quickly understand the...
Vulnerability Directory For Access Credentials on Feb 20, 2020
Knowing which access credentials are insecure can be difficult to see, especially because most look and feel the same. Even insecure 125 kHz...