The Crazy IP Tipping Point Has Returned

By John Honovich, Published Aug 10, 2013, 12:00am EDT

For almost all of you reading this, the tipping point from analog to IP cameras is no longer a concern. However, a recent market analyst report is now predicting that the market will not 'tip' to IP cameras until 2014, creating fresh questions. Even more confusing, this same firm predicted last year it would have already tipped by now.

What happened is that the China surveillance skew has struck again - twice.

China Skew Doubled

The report covers the global market obscuring that adoption pattens between Asia and the rest of the word are quite different. While analog unsurprisingly still dominates in Asia, this is not the case in the rest of the world, especially in North America and Western Europe (where most people will see these reports). Further, breaking down the market into the professional vs SMB/consumer, IP's domination is even stronger (something we pointed out in 2011 about why the market had already tipped).

Even more interesting, evidently, this firm 'found' millions more analog cameras being sold in Asia than they previously estimated, shifting the 'tipping' point as a result of their numerical adjustment. Estimating things inside China is obviously incredibly hard. Maybe it is accurate, maybe it is not. Either way, it is irrelevant to the buying choices of the rest of the world.

Chopsticks vs Forks

One could equally trumpet:

Chopsticks More Popular Than Forks Globally

It may very well be true given the preferences of more than a billion Chinese, but it would be peculiar to base decisions of non Asian utensil supplies based on such a metric.

Impact of Wealth

Ultimately, though the main factor is financial, not cultural. Despite its amazing growth, China is still poor relative to the US or Western Europe. Comparing GDP per capita, the USA is 8x greater than China. Even a relatively 'wealthy' Asian country like Taiwan is still 50% lower than the USA. Understandably, price is a much greater barrier for capital goods, whether laptops or surveillance cameras.

Ignore Tipping Point

Tipping point debates have long stopped making any sense, especially when viewed globally. Understand one's local conditions and needs and the situation should be clear.

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