Security Sales Forecast 2015

By: John Honovich, Published on Jan 05, 2015

The biggest surveillance manufacturer marketing push in 2014 was 4K.

And the pundits continue to say how the cloud will be the next big thing.

But these two were easily beat out by three less hyped but more valuable offerings.

**** *** *** *** findings ** *** ****** and *** ********:

  • ** *********** **** **********. ****** sales **** ** ****** by ************ ********* ****, customer ******** **** ** low.
  • ********** **** ****** ***************.
  • ****** ******* **** ** ******, despite *** **** ** support ** ***** *************.
  • '*******' ** ** ***** ****** **** **********, as ********** ********** / maturity *** ****** ** option ****** ******.
  • ****** ******* **** ******** ** decline, **** ******* **** previously ********, *** ** IP ****** ******* ****, analog **'* ********* *** more ****** ******* ******** end ** ****.
  • ***** ************* *** ******** *******, though *** ****** ** the ******** / ** deal ***** ** ** seen.
  • ****** ************ **** ** ****** than ********, **** ******* driven ** ******** *****.

4K **** **********

*** ******* *** ** *** brand ************* **** *** past **** *** **** 4K, *** ** ** going ** **** *********** buyer *********** ** ****. Not * ****** ********** surveyed ****** ** ** a ********** **** **** going ** **** **** of, * ********** ******* considering *** ***** ** marketing ******* ***** ********* 4K.

*** ******** **** ** that ***** ****** **** be ********* ****, ** percentage *****. **** ** a ******* ** ***** factors:

  • ** ** ****** ***** are ******** ** **** zero, ** *** ***** will ************* ** * big ****.
  • ************* *** ******** * lot ** ***** *** marketing ******* ****** ****.
  • *** **** ******* ******, who *** ******** ****** HD, ** **** ** their **** / **** new '**********'.

** ********** **** ** able ** ***** ******* as **** ****** ******* will ********** **** ***%, etc. ****** ** ** IP *******.

*** ******* **** ** that *** ***** ******, relative ** *** ************* dollars ******** **** ** poor. *****'* **** ** much ******* ************* *** do ** ****** *** not ****** *********.

**** ****, ****** **** (slowly) **** **** ****/***** HD ** ** *** the ****** ********* / impact **** ** *** more ***** **** **** of ** ** **.

Cloud ******* ***************

***** ***** ************ ***** will ****** *************** *** to * **** ** both ****** *** ******. Integrators ******** *** ** interest (**** * **** total) *** ************* / providers *** ***** ****** to ******* ** ******* their ********* (*.*., **** AVHS ***** **** *** gone?). *** ***** *** be *** ****** (** present) ** ***** ***** of ** / ********** but **** ****** * distinct ***** ** ***** surveillance.

More -> ****** **

****** ***** *** ** universal ********* ***** *********** in **** **** **** sell ****, ****** ** clearly *** *** **** votes. ********** ********** ********:

  • "***** *.* *** *** for ********* ****** ****** really. *** *.* **** be *** *** ****** upgrade **** ******* ****** while *** **** ** analog ******* ***** ** a ******."
  • "***** - ******* ** ticks *** *** ***** at *** ***** *****."
  • "*** ******* ****."
  • "****** ****-********** ****, *** cost *** **** ********."
  • "******* *****, ****** ******* at * **** **** price"
  • "***** *** **** **** reasonable *** *** ************ of *** ***** ** a ***** *********** ** upsell ******** ****** ****** base ******* ***** ************** changes."
  • "** ****** *** ********* with ******** ****** **************. HD ****** (*********) ** a ********** *********** *** we **** *** ** push **** ** ******** analog ********* ***** ** is ** **** ******* choice."
  • "*** ******* **** ** are ***** **** *** camera ****** ** *** the *** ******* ** HVI-TVI"
  • "****** **, ************ *****. Since ** ** * new *******, **** **** tend ** ******** ***** naturally, *** ** *** it ** * *********** for ** ****** ** our ******* *********."
  • "**-*** ******** *******. **** technology ***** ** ** a ***** **** ***** providing * **** ****** image. ** * *** provide * **** ******* at * **** **** value **** ******** **** IMHO."

**** ** ********** ***** the **** ** ************ marketing *****. *******, ****** HD ****** **** ********** be ********** ** ****. None ** *** *** Western ** ******** ****** are ********** ****** ** which ***** ****** **'* growth **** ************* ** *** *** *** / ******* ** *** market ** ****.

****** **** ** ***** support *** ****** **, the ************** / ****** ******* Dahua *** ************** ********* ****** ** well.

(Somewhat) **** - ** / **

* *** ***** ***, the **** ****** ****** driver *** ***** ************ was *** **** ** IP / **. **** is *** ******** ****, simply * ****** ** its *** *******, ** more *** **** ****** migrate ** ** / HD. * *** *********** still *** **** **** though: 

  • "** *******. ** *** close ** * **** transition **** ** ******* now."
  • "**-***** ******* *** ******** to **** ****** ***** camera ************* **** *** network."
  • "** ******* ******* *** growing ** ****** **** than *** ***** ****** that ** ****. *** sheer *********** ** ***** quality *** *********** ** IP ******* *** * huge ******* ***** **** the ******** *** *** over *** ******* *****"

***********, ** ** ******* a ************ ***** ****** driver.

Less -> ****** **

** *** ********, * strong ********* ****** *********** exists ** **** **** are ***** ** **** less ** ** **** - ****** **, **** far **** **** **** of *** *********** ********* it:

  • "****** ***** (******** ***/**** resolution). **'* ***** ************."
  • "****** **** *****'* *** it *******. ** **** still **** *** ******* in ************* ********* ********** no *******, *** **** that ** ******** ** will ********** *** ***."
  • "****** ******* *** ** less ******. ****** *** asking *** ****** ***** quality."
  • "****** **** - ******** in **** ** ** Based *******"
  • "****** *****. ***? ******* I *** **** ** entry ***** ** ****** for *** **** **** but **** **** **** double *** *******."
  • "* ***** *** ****** cameras *** **** ** not *** ******** *** together. **** *** ****."
  • "******** ********** ****** ************. Cost ****** *********** ****** surveillance *** ****** *********** for * ****** ****"
  • "****** ***** ** ** from ********* ** ******* than ****** **** *** brands."
  • "****** ******* (******** **********) Push ******* ** / HD ****** *** ****** picture ******* *** **** the ***** ************ ** not ** ****."
  • "** ****** **** ******** no ****** ** **** with *** ** ****** offerings ********* *****."
  • "****** ******** ******* ***** I ******* *** ************ inferior ** *****/***** **********."

**** ****** ** ********* should **** ** ** surprise ** ******** ******. However, *** ********* ***** that ** ***** ** occur ** * ***** drop ** ****** ** sales.

** *** *** ***, analog **, **** ****** pixel ***** *** ******* pricing, ***** ** **** to ******* ****** **. And ** *** ****** end, *** ********* ******** of ** ** ***** it ****** ** ******* switching ** **. *******, systems **** *** *** boom ** **** ** 2005 *** *** ** least ** ***** ***, making **** ************ **** to ******* ***********.

** ****** **** ** hit '*******' ****** ************* like *****, *********, ****/**, etc. *** **** ** analog ** ****** ** counter **** ****. ** contrast, ********* *** ***** should ** ****, ********* analog ** ** ****** HD ***** *** ****** some ** ***** ******* competitor ***** ** ****** HD.

More -> ***** *********

* **** ****** ** integrators ***** ***** ********* as * ***** ****** driver *** ****, **** only **** ******* ****** HD.

********** ******** ** ********* included:

  • "** ****** ******* **** VCA ** *** ***** market ********** *** ******** and ** **** **** a **** ***** ** video *********."
  • "** **** ** ******* more ******* **** ******** analytic ******** ** **** is * **** ******* of *** ******** *****."
  • "********* ****** **** **** IP ******* **** *********."
  • "** *****. *********** *******, video ********* ********** ******** systems."
  • "******** ***** ********'*, ** Cameras."
  • "** ***** ************ *******, due ** ****** ********** video *** **** ********* analytics."

**** ****** **** ***** days ****** *********** / ** ********* patent ****, ** ** **** not ******* ****.

*********, ** ****** **** to ** ** ********* year *** ********'* ***** analytic *****. *** *********** of ******** ***-**** ******** *******, ***** ********** ***** tactics *** *** ****** patents ****** ***** *********, sets **** ** *** tremendous ***** ******.

** *** *** **** of *** ********, **** will ****** ** **** approach ******** ***** ** enforcement **** ******.

More -> ****** *******

****** ******* *** * decent ******* ******* ***********, with **** ****** ** as * ***** ****** area: 

  • "****** ******* - ** want ** **** * bite *** ** *** competition. *********, ** ***** on ******* ******."
  • "****** ******* ***** ** TCP/IP, **** *************** **** from *****."
  • "******** ****** ******* *********. In *** *** ***** are ******** ******* **** free ********* *********, ******, iris, ****** ***."
  • "** **** ** ******** our **** *** ****** control ******* ** ****** projects ********* ****** ****** enhancements ** *******. ****, we **** ** **** IP ****** ******* ******* like *** **** *****."
  • "** ** *** **** access ******* *******, ** future-proofs *** ************* **** an ************** ***********."

** **********, * ****** called *** ******** ****** control:

  • "******** ******** **** ****** control. ** *** ****** more ******** *** ********** into ****** *********."
  • "******** ******** *********."
  • "******** ****** ******* ******* - ******* ******-**** ***** allows *** **** *********** to ****** ******* ****** up ** ** ******** locks *** * **** cable."

***********,******** ****** *******, ** our ***** ****, ** *** ** the *** ******* ********, not **** ** ****** but ** *** ** physical ********.

**** ****, ** ** not ****** * ***** in ******* ****** ******* spending / *****, *** with ********** ** ***** surveillance *******, **** ** a ***** **** ** access ******* ******* ** be * ******* **** for **** ***********.

Comments (6)

Hate to be the grammar police, but you have a duplicate paragraph starting with "On the low end..."

Otherwise, great info! Well, I guess I think it's great because it falls in line with my own thoughts.

Thanks, fixed and upvoted.

Definitely agree on the HD analog being the growth engine in 2015. Opens up some integration possibilities and drives total cost down for the customer. Especially like Milestone's pricing plan for one license per IP address. Opens up using the Dahua or Hikvision NVR as an encoder since the VMS included with them is incomprehensible. I do like the opportunity that 4K represents however and I disagree slightly that we'll see no real growth from that. I view it as adding another great tool to the toolbox. It all comes down to how the sales guy positions it with the client. If a 4K camera can provide the functionality the client needs, then its a win win. Alot of city surveillance jobs, utilities and higher end clients might want this level of definintion.

Dave Barnhart

Tronniks

Dave,

Thanks. To clarify, it is not our position that "we'll see no real growth from that [4K]." As we said above, there will certainly be growth, it will simply be disappointing relative to the marketing expenditures made given the lack of integrator demand and the limited gains the cameras offer.

Do you think we will see more kickstarter/indie campaigns in 2015? Will they be successful?

As long as the tech boom / bubble lasts, yes. But these will be very early stage and almost all consumer focused so they will have essentially no short term effect on the market.

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