For years, industry people have hoped for the demise of NTSC and PAL analog cameras. Now that day has come and, after years of steady declines, the end has come suddenly.
But the killer is a surprise.
Though IP has been dominant for years in the high end of the market (larger projects and richer countries), IP has never been able to eliminate analog usage for small projects and less wealthy countries. IP's cost premium and additional complexity continued to hinder its expansion in those areas.
Cause of Death
Analog was killed by... analog.
In less than 3 years, HD Analog (like HD-CVI, HD-TVI and AHD) has gone from nothing to killing SD analog (i.e., NTSC / PAL and even 960H).
In 2015, SD analog sales will fall more than 50% compared to 2014, a massive drop. And SD's decline has accelerated throughout 2015, as HD analog offerings have ramped up and more suppliers switch away from SD / 960H to HD analog.
Why It Died Now
HD analog offers MP at roughly the same price point and with the same cabling as SD analog. Just like MP was the 'killer app' that drove the high end to IP, MP was the driver for moving the lower end of the market from SD analog to HD analog.
IPVM Tests of HD Analog include:
2015 was simply the year that HD analog went mainstream, and in doing so, it knocked out SD analog.
SD Analog's Future
Just like some CCTV VHS machines are still recording in 2015, despite being killed a decade ago, some SD analog will continue for years to come, though only in 'maintenance mode'.
At the low end, where individual kits are bought, we see SD analog quickly becoming extinct.
However, at the mid to high end, where systems are maintained and gradually expanding for a decade or more, some SD analog cameras will continue to be sold, simply to replace broken SD cameras or add small numbers on to SD analog systems that are not ready for complete replacement.
As HD analog matures, we see even SD analog systems adding them even before migrating to HD recording. Increasingly, HD analog cameras are including the option of dual HD and SD analog outputs which would help facilitate this migration (i.e., buy an HD analog camera now to replace a failed SD one, record it SD in the short term and when ready to upgrade to HD recording, 'flip' the camera to the HD output).
IP vs HD Analog
With the death of SD analog (finally), now sets up a new rivalry - IP vs HD analog.
As our HD Analog Usage and Rejection Statistics show, HD analog is taking share both from SD analog and IP. However, since HD analog has started from the bottom of the market, it has had far more of an impact on SD analog.
The bigger question becomes, how competitive can HD analog become against IP?
As our HD Analog vs IP Guide 2015 shows, today, though HD analog wins (big) on price and simplicity, it loses on many other elements - max resolution, advanced capabilities, breadth of vendor support, VMS integration, brand recognition, etc. which makes it unattractive to most on the mid to high end. However, it is quite possible, though not guaranteed, that HD analog closes the gap on most of these in the next few years.
Given the potential / need for HD analog improvements, we believe it is hard to predict the actual outcome. On the other hand, those who simply dismiss HD analog because it is analog, and that analog is dead, are imprudent.
And Todd Rockoff stands vindicated, although not exactly how he thought he would be.
But Analog still wins in low light all day!!!!! Sure, the image quality looks like an Atari game but its still better than any IP camera out there, take that and pair it with a tube monitor and you got yourself a mean surveillance system............... Totally kidding.
As 'hackability' becomes more and more of a concern a return to a true closed circuit of devices with only one or two networkable points that need securing will be become prevelent. Also as the developing world scrambles to 'monitor' itself in higher resolution price will be king.
Still waiting for HD analog/TVI/CVI encoders so we can start using this for enterprise deployments.
IPVMU Certified | 10/19/15 05:03am
For me, new installs are all about IP. Even if its a budget install. Upgrades of existing systems it's all about TVI. I cant see installing TVI as a new system.
Our technicians who used to be against installing IP, no prefer it and can install it faster. It's worth spending a few dollars more for IP. No need for an external power supply on small projects or messy cable in someones office.
IPVMU Certified | 10/19/15 05:09am
As someone that spent many years working on analog mobile, wireless and body worn products, I saw a large customer demand for those items but only very limited interest from vendors on them. I'm curious to see what will happen to those areas if analog truly 'dies'.
Mobile IP cameras have been attempted but not very well adopted (for various reasons) but I wonder if any vendors will expend energy on an HD analog mobile dvr. That would solve the major issues with mobile IP, namely how to get 48v POE from a 12v source, and how to harden a mobile NVR with enough processing power for IP cameras in a vehicular environment.... and not break the bank.
There are many advantages to the "new" HD over Coax that are significant enough to overcome the issues with version 1.0. One single separator other than price is the distances. Parking structures are a prime example where they need better images and that extra 700' or so makes a world of difference. Version 1.0 didn't help with this.
Some of the cameras HAVE some pretty advanced imagers as shown in IPVM tests. It's not all "the lowest cost" when you buy a HD Coax camera with true WDR and Remote Zoom/AutoFocus capabilities.
I see this technology as another tool in the belt to be used when needed, and there is a need. As small businesses have to deal with PCI compliance there will be value in not stringing network access points around the building. There are many in this group that make efforts to prevent issues but this is a limited subset of what is out there.
When encoders are common place it will increase adoption IMHO.
IPVMU Certified | 10/19/15 12:06pm
the problem with analog HD is that each manufacturer has its own format.
When using IP, you have ONVIF as an alternative to integrating multiple manufacturer's cameras.
There is no such standard for analog HD.
Yes, it is a problem that there are so many HD Coax formats. Just like it was a problem with so many PTZ control formats and UTP formats like PELCO C and its competitors. Fortunately on the IP side ONVIF came in and made everything IP work perfectly together just like plain old NTSC and PAL (which has also plagued the industry). Three or four formats aren't going to slow the flow as much as a 300' distance limit and expensive cameras did to version 1.0 SDI.
Interesting solution, notably for low latency systems. Are PCI/PCI-Express capture boards planned or available for these HD analogs "standards" ?
Something interesting about this is the adoption rate. When did CVI / TVI / HD Analog hit the market- 2014? 2013? While it is not exactly dominating the industry it has made a bigger splash in a shorter time than IP did.
Gonna miss this analog form factor...
Does someone know if there are AHD pinhole cameras?
With over 200 votes, IP won the poll with 61% choosing IP will be more widely used than HD analog in 2020.
However, HD analog did fairly well, given how new it is, with 25% saying HD analog and IP would essentially be tied and 14% saying that HD analog would beat IP.
Here is snapshot of the poll results:
Manufacturers and integrator voting were virtually identically split