Strong ******** **** *******
*** ******* ******* *** ********* ** October **** *** **** *** ********* year, *** ******* ******** *** *** first******* ******** ********** **** ** *** York **** ** ******* **, ****, **** ***** *** *** ***** expressing ********** **** *** ******* ***** launch, **** *** *** ****** ***** for ************:
***** ***, **'** ******* ** *** the **** ******** ****. ****'* ********* number *. ***** ***, **'* ***** getting *** ** *** ***** *** being ******. **** ** *** * start ** ******* ****'* ****** ** figure *** *** ** *** *** products **** ** ***********. ** **** a ****** ******* ***** *** **** cash ****. ** **** **** **** top *** ****** *****. *’* ********* with *** **** **’** *** ********. We’re ****-********** ** ***** *********** ****** into *** ******.
** *** ******** ****, ******* ****** footage ** ******* ***** ******* *** opening **** ** *** *** **** Stock ******** ** ******* ****, ********** with *** ***:

Resideo's ***
*** ***** ***** "****-****** *******" ** ******* ** ** $** and ** **** *** *** **** 2 ***** ** **** ********** **** regular ******* ** ~$**, * **** of ***** **%:

Steady ******* **** ***** *** ****
*******'* ***** *** * ****** ******* over *** ***** *** **** ** trading *** ******** ********* ***** $**:

*********
*** *******'* ****** ********* ** *** ~$2.7 ******* *** (*** ******* ****** x ~$** *** *****) ******** ** revenue ** ~$*.* *******. ** ** low ******** ** *****.
***** **** ************ / **** *********** ******* their ********* *** **** **** ****, it ** *** ***.
************ **** ** *** ************* ***** valuations ******** ** ***** ***** ***** those businesses ******** ***** ****** ******** ** sales **** *************. *** *******, ******* does ****** ~$ * ******* ** revenue *** **** *** * ****** market ************** ** ~$* *******. ** a ******* *****, *** *** **** of *******'* ******** ***** ***** ** ~$*** million.
*** ********* **** **** ** *** business ** ************* **** ********** **** the *** ****, **** ****** ***** has ******** **** *******. *************, **** with ****** ****** ***** **** ********* Homes **** ** ***** ** ** revenue ** ******.
********, **** ***** ************** *** ******* at * $*.* ******* *********.
Analyst *****
** ******* ** ************.*** *** **** interesting ****** ** *** ***** *** Resideo *** [**** ** ****** *********] and *** ** ********* ** ** did, claiming **** *** **** *** ** attributed *** *******. *****, **** ***** investors *** ***** ******** ** ****:
****-**** *** *********** ** ********* (*** sold **** ** ** ***) *** so ***** ** **** ****** ********* regarding *** *** *******. *********, ** or *** ******** ***** *** ***** and ** ** ** *** ******** to ************* *********. *******, *** ****-*** is ******* **** ******* **** *** parent *******, *** **********, ************* ********* are prohibited from ****** ****** ** *** ****-***. Let ** *******. ** * ***** cap ****** **** ******* **** * large *** ******* ***** *********** * small *** ****-***, **** ****** **** manager’s ********** ******* ******** *** ******* from ******* *** ****-***. *** ***** reasons, **** ********* **** ***** ****** in *** ****-*** ********** ** ***** or ********** *****.
******, **** ********** ******* * *** starting ***** *****:
*** ********** **** ** *** *** spin-off *** **** ****** ********* ** promote *** ******* *********. ** ****, the ********** **** ** ************ ** *** ******* the *****. ***? ******* ********** ***** options *** ******* ****** ***** ** the ***** ****** ***** ** *******. The ***** *** ***** ****** *********, the ******* ***** ********* *** ******* have.
********
******,* **-**** ********************* & **. ***** *** **** **** *** ***** ***** will **** **** **-** ****** ** $** (or ** ********* ********* ** $*.* billion):

*** ****** ******** *** ********, ******** that * ***** ****** ****** ****** products *** *** **** *** *** day:
**** ****** ****** *** **********, *** a ******** *** ***** ****** ******-****** Products ******** *** ********* ********, ** think **** ** ** *********** ********** opportunity. *** ** ** **** *** from ****** *********, ******* ** ******* on *** ************ ******* *** ****** leading ****** ****** ** ********, ******* & **** *** ************. *** ***** MSD *** **** ****** *** ********* from *** ***** ****** “*********” *******, and ******** ***** ***** ************. *** spin-off ** *** *** ******* **. We ******** ******** **** ** ********** and $** ***** ******.
Bear ****
*************.*** ******* ***** *** **** ****, *********** **** ******* has ** *** ********* ** ** $140 ******* ******** *** *** **** 25 *****:
******* **** **** ******** ** ********* under ******** *************** *** ************* ********** that ******* ****** *********'* ******* ****** liability ********, ********* *** ****** ******** liability **** ****** **** *** ********** of *** ****** ************** ******* ********... Given **** ***** ** ** ***** liability ****** *** *** **** **** the ******* ** ** *** **** for *** **** ** *****, ***** that ***** ** ******* ********** ********* the ********* ****** **** ******, ****** it **** **** ********* ** ********* an ***** ********* *****. ***** *** maximum ********* **** *** ******* *** pay ** *** ***** **** ** $140 *******, ** ** ******* ** what *** ********* ** ***** ******** will **.
**** ******** **** ***** $*.* ******* debt *** **** **** ******** ******** could **** ** * *********:
********, ***** **** *** ******* ******* like ** **** ***** **** * limited ****** ** **** *** *** taken *** $*.* ******* ******* ** loans ** **** *** ********* *****, it ***** **** **** ******* ******** is *********. ** * *********** ********, the ****** **** ******* ************ ***** face ****** *********** ** **** $*** million **** *** ****** *********** *** interest ******** ******** ***** ** ******* that *** ******* ***** **** ** face ******* ******* ** ***** ** ever * ***** ******** ********. **** risk ******* ************ ********* **** *** analyze **** *** ******** ******** **** the ******* ****** **** ** ******* discretionary.
Challenges ** ***** ******
***** ****** ***** ** ******* **** and *** ****** *** *********, ********* to **** ******* **** ********:
***** ******* ** * ***** **** of * ******** ****** ******* (** Resideo ********** ***) *** *** ********* of ******** *********** ***** * *******’* performance *** ********. **** ****** *** going ****, ********* *** ***** *** brag ***, *** **** **** ** when **** ** ***, ******** *** find ***. ********, *.*., ***** ******* both ***** ** ****. ******* ** very ******* ****** *** **** *** bad ** ****.
******,*********'* *** **** ******* * ****** **** ****** ***** acquired ** ***** **** ***** ******, noting:
[*****] ******, *** ********** ***** ** raised ************, *** **’* ********** ** under ******** ** ***********. ** ** totally ******, ** ****’* ********* * was ******* ******* **.
******* ** *** ******* ** ******* forward ** ****, **** *** ****. And *** **** **** ** **** with **** *** ***** *****, **** do **** *** ********* ** ****.
Poll / ****

Comments (20)
John Honovich
Dan, good post.
Btw, wow, it's down again today, now under $21:
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John Honovich
Maybe ADI can put their own stock in one of their flash sales...
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Undisclosed #2
Resideo's branding that I have seen is Smart Home or Connected Home. As IPVM mentioned about the name Resideo, everything is centered around residential. How do manufacturers in the commercial space feel about this? Add that to the WhiteBox push, the manufacturers' of commercial systems may not be seeing the "love" out of ADI. The ADI Expo's were hit or miss this year with more seeming to be a miss. ADI with WhiteBox could be viewed as a competitor to other manufacturers' of cameras, monitors, etc. Isn't Honeywell now in other distributors? I have heard Interlogix is no longer at ADI. I know investors don't see this information but this has to be resulting in lost sales. Or is ADI growing in other areas that it makes up for lost sales in video, access, etc. If there was a Consumer Confidence Level or Manufacturers' Confidence Level for ADI, what would it look like?
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Undisclosed Manufacturer #3
A problem with concentrating on the consumer market, is that is also where all the "sexy VC money" goes. Resideo will have the DNA of large-industrial Honeywell for a long time.
I see the next Nest thermostat or Dropcam coming along, with pretty software, skillful marketing, and the ability to sell to a massive market at razor-thin margins or a loss, completely eating their lunch on the residential side.
Prediction: ADI itself will be spun off in a year.
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Undisclosed Integrator #4
Not sure why this is a surprise. After all it's ADI and Honeywell. The only company I would say is worse than these two is Comcast.
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Dan Gelinas
This update is included in the story above as well as here in comments:
An analyst at seekingalpha.com had some interesting things to say about the Resideo IPO and why it performed as it did, claiming that the drop can be attributed two factors. First, that large investors are being required to sell:
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John Honovich
Resideo stock still down, a month later, and despite a bump in the first half of November, stock is under $21:
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John Honovich
Resideo pays 1% royalty for using the Honeywell brand, which for current annual revenue is $30 million, per Joe Ragan, CFO, at Imperial Capital investor conference.
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John Honovich
Resideo announced their Q4 financials and the stock drop 23%:
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Undisclosed Manufacturer #5
Catch a falling knife? Place your bets!
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John Honovich
Down further over the past 6 months:
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John Honovich
Update: Resideo stock has plunged afterhours, down ~30% to ~$10 now:
The dreaded 'CFO transition' announcement plus pre-announcing significantly lower results than expected.
According to their release, looks like ADI is fine but the other business areas have problems:
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Undisclosed Manufacturer #6
Those who bought "low", some decent gains in a few months time.....~$11.75 now which is >25%...
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