Resideo IPOs, Then Plunges

By: Dan Gelinas, Published on Oct 31, 2018

ADI and Honeywell Homes management have been touting their spinout and IPO for months, including appearing on Wall Street as they widely shared on social media:

And:

However, the stock is down 29% from the start of when-issued trading, as shown below:

[Update: it fell again on day 3, falling as far as $19.40 but finishing the day down just another 3.79% at $21.08.

What is happening? What is the outlook for the newly independent company?

In this note we look at:

  • Strong Optimism from Resideo
  • Resideo's IPO
  • Steady Decline Over First Two Days
  • Valuation
  • Bull and Bear Case from Financial Experts

*** *** ********* ***** management **** **** ******* their ******* *** *** for ******, ********* ********* on **** ****** ** they ************ ** ****** *****:

***:

*******, *** ***** ** down **% **** *** start ** ****-****** *******, as ***** *****:

[******: ** **** ***** on *** *, ******* as *** ** $**.** but ********* *** *** down **** ******* *.**% at $**.**.

**** ** *********? **** is *** ******* *** the ***** *********** *******?

** **** **** ** look **:

  • ****** ******** **** *******
  • *******'* ***
  • ****** ******* **** ***** Two ****
  • *********
  • **** *** **** **** from ********* *******

[***************]

Strong ******** **** *******

*** ******* ******* *** announced ** ******* **** and **** *** ********* year, *** ******* ******** for *** ************ ******** ********** **** in *** **** **** on ******* **, ****, **** ***** *** Joe ***** ********** ********** that *** ******* ***** launch, **** *** *** create ***** *** ************:

***** ***, **'** ******* to *** *** **** executed ****. ****'* ********* number *. ***** ***, it's ***** ******* *** of *** ***** *** being ******. **** ** not * ***** ** company ****'* ****** ** figure *** *** ** get *** ******** **** he ***********. ** **** a ****** ******* ***** and **** **** ****. We **** **** **** top *** ****** *****. I’m ********* **** *** team **’** *** ********. We’re ****-********** ** ***** shareholder ****** **** *** future.

** *** ******** ****, Resideo ****** ******* ** company ***** ******* *** opening **** ** *** New **** ***** ******** on ******* ****, ********** with *** ***:

Resideo's ***

*** ***** ***** "****-****** *******" ** ******* ** at $** *** ** fell *** *** **** 2 ***** ** **** officially **** ******* ******* at ~$**, * **** of ***** **%:

Steady ******* **** ***** *** ****

*******'* ***** *** * steady ******* **** *** first *** **** ** trading *** ******** ********* under $**:

*********

*** *******'* ****** ********* is *** ~$*.* ******* USD (*** ******* ****** x ~$** *** *****) compared ** ******* ** ~$4.5 *******. ** ** low ******** ** *****.

***** **** ************ / **** distributor ******* ***** ********* but **** **** ****, it ** *** ***.

************ **** ** *** significantly ***** ********** ******** to ***** ***** ***** those businesses ******** ***** ****** relative ** ***** **** manufacturers. *** *******, ******* does ****** ~$ * billion ** ******* *** only *** * ****** market ************** ** ~$* billion. ** * ******* ratio, *** *** **** of *******'* ******** ***** ***** at ~$*** *******.

*** ********* **** **** of *** ******** ** significantly **** ********** **** the *** ****, **** though ***** *** ******** less *******. *************, **** with ****** ****** ***** like ********* ***** **** to ***** ** ** revenue ** ******.

********, **** ***** ************** put ******* ** * $3.2 ******* *********.

Analyst *****

** ******* ** ************.****** **** *********** ****** to *** ***** *** Resideo ****** *** ** ********* as ** ***, ******** **** the **** *** ** attributed *** *******. *****, that ***** ********* *** being ******** ** ****:

****-**** *** *********** ** investors (*** **** **** in ** ***) *** so ***** ** **** little ********* ********* *** new *******. *********, ** or *** ******** ***** the ***** *** ** it ** *** ******** to ************* *********. *******, the ****-*** ** ******* much ******* **** *** parent *******, *** **********, institutional ********* *** ********** **** ****** shares ** *** ****-***. Let ** *******. ** a ***** *** ****** fund ******* **** * large *** ******* ***** distributes * ***** *** spin-off, **** ****** **** manager’s ********** ******* ******** the ******* **** ******* the ****-***. *** ***** reasons, **** ********* **** their ****** ** *** spin-off ********** ** ***** or ********** *****.

******, **** ********** ******* a *** ******** ***** price:

*** ********** **** ** the *** ****-*** *** very ****** ********* ** promote *** ******* *********. In ****, *** ********** team ** ************ ** *** ******* the *****. ***? ******* management ***** ******* *** usually ****** ***** ** the ***** ****** ***** of *******. *** ***** the ***** ****** *********, the ******* ***** ********* the ******* ****.

********

******,* **-**** ********************* & **. ***** *** **** **** *** stock ***** **** **** **** 12-18 ****** ** $** (or ** ********* ********* of $*.* *******):

*** ****** ******** *** forecast, ******** **** * shift ****** ****** ****** products *** *** **** win *** ***:

**** ****** ****** *** categories, *** * ******** mix ***** ****** ******-****** Products ******** *** ********* revenues, ** ***** **** is ** *********** ********** opportunity. *** ** ** spun *** **** ****** Honeywell, ******* ** ******* on *** ************ ******* and ****** ******* ****** shares ** ********, ******* & **** *** ************. Its ***** *** *** line ****** *** ********* from *** ***** ****** “connected” *******, *** ******** could ***** ************. *** spin-off ** *** *** October **. ** ******** coverage **** ** ********** and $** ***** ******.

Bear ****

*************.*** ******* ***** *** **** ****, *********** that ******* *** ** pay ********* ** ** $140 ******* ******** *** the **** ** *****:

******* **** **** ******** to ********* ***** ******** indemnification *** ************* ********** that ******* ****** *********'* related ****** ********* ********, including *** ****** ******** liability **** ****** **** the ********** ** *** legacy ************** ******* ********... Given **** ***** ** no ***** ********* ****** and *** **** **** the ******* ** ** the **** *** *** next ** *****, ***** that ***** ** ******* visibility ********* *** ********* future **** ******, ****** it **** **** ********* to ********* ** ***** intrinsic *****. ***** *** maximum ********* **** *** company *** *** ** any ***** **** ** $140 *******, ** ** unclear ** **** *** magnitude ** ***** ******** will **.

**** ******** **** ***** $1.2 ******* **** *** risk **** ******** ******** could **** ** * recession:

********, ***** **** *** company ******* **** ** will ***** **** * limited ****** ** **** and *** ***** *** $1.2 ******* ******* ** loans ** **** *** financing *****, ** ***** that **** ******* ******** is *********. ** * prospective ********, *** ****** that ******* ************ ***** face ****** *********** ** over $*** ******* **** its ****** *********** *** interest ******** ******** ***** me ******* **** *** company ***** **** ** face ******* ******* ** there ** **** * sharp ******** ********. **** risk ******* ************ ********* when *** ******* **** the ******** ******** **** the ******* ****** **** is ******* *************.

Challenges ** ***** ******

***** ****** ***** ** magnify **** *** *** cycles *** *********, ********* to **** ******* **** Honovich:

***** ******* ** * small **** ** * publicly ****** ******* (** Resideo ********** ***) *** the ********* ** ******** information ***** * *******’* performance *** ********. **** things *** ***** ****, employees *** ***** *** brag ***, *** **** side ** **** **** do ***, ******** *** find ***. ********, *.*., lived ******* **** ***** of ****. ******* ** very ******* ****** *** good *** *** ** this.

******,*********'* *** **** ******* * ****** **** picked ***** ******** ** Canon **** ***** ******, noting:

[*****] ******, *** ********** would ** ****** ************, and **’* ********** ** under ******** ** ***********. To ** ******* ******, it ****’* ********* * was ******* ******* **.

******* ** *** ******* is ******* ******* ** this, **** *** ****. And *** **** **** is **** **** **** low ***** *****, **** do **** *** ********* to ****.

Poll / ****

Comments (18)

***, **** ****.

***, ***, **'* **** again *****, *** ***** $21:

$**, ** * *** a ***** ** ***********, or * ***** ** Resideo? ***** ****. *'** probably **** *** * few ***** ***** **** my *****, ****** ** yield * ****** ***, depending ** **** *** free **** *** ** the ***** **** **** week.

****** ****. * ****. It's **** ** * slide. ** **** ** interesting ** *** ** they *** ******** ********** ******** ******** *********** ** the ************ *****. 

***** *** *** *** their *** ***** ** one ** ***** ***** sales...

**** ******* ***. ****’* why *** ***** ***** going ****. 😂😂

**** ** **** *****!!!  Funny, *** *****.

*******'* ******** **** * have **** ** ***** Home ** ********* ****. As **** ********* ***** the **** *******, ********** is ******** ****** ***********. How ** ************* ** the ********** ***** **** about ****? *** **** to *** ******** ****, the *************' ** ********** systems *** *** ** seeing *** "****" *** of ***. *** *** Expo's **** *** ** miss **** **** **** more ******* ** ** a ****.  *** **** WhiteBox ***** ** ****** as * ********** ** other *************' ** *******, monitors, ***. ***'* ********* now ** ***** ************? I **** ***** ********** is ** ****** ** ADI.  * **** ********* don't *** **** *********** but **** *** ** be ********* ** **** sales. ** ** *** growing ** ***** ***** that ** ***** ** for **** ***** ** video, ******, ***. ** there *** * ******** Confidence ***** ** *************' Confidence ***** *** ***, what ***** ** **** like?

* ******* **** ************* on *** ******** ******, is **** ** **** where *** *** "**** VC *****" ****. ******* will **** *** *** of *****-********** ********* *** a **** ****.

* *** *** **** Nest ********** ** ******* coming *****, **** ****** software, ******** *********, *** the ******* ** **** to * ******* ****** at *****-**** ******* ** a ****, ********** ****** their ***** ** *** residential ****.

**********: *** ****** **** be **** *** ** a ****.

*** **** *** **** is * ********. ***** all **'* *** *** Honeywell. *** **** ******* I ***** *** ** worse **** ***** *** is *******.

**** ****** ** ******** in *** ***** ***** as **** ** **** in ********:

** ******* ** ************.****** **** *********** ****** to *** ***** *** Resideo ****** *** ** ********* as ** ***, ******** **** the **** *** ** attributed *** *******. *****, that ***** ********* *** being ******** ** ****:

****-**** *** *********** ** investors (*** **** **** in ** ***) *** so ***** ** **** little ********* ********* *** new *******. *********, ** or *** ******** ***** the ***** *** ** it ** *** ******** to ************* *********. *******, the ****-*** ** ******* much ******* **** *** parent *******, *** **********, institutional ********* *** ********** **** ****** shares ** *** ****-***. Let ** *******. ** a ***** *** ****** fund ******* **** * large *** ******* ***** distributes * ***** *** spin-off, **** ****** **** manager’s ********** ******* ******** the ******* **** ******* the ****-***. *** ***** reasons, **** ********* **** their ****** ** *** spin-off ********** ** ***** or ********** *****.

******, **** ********** ******* a *** ******** ***** price:

*** ********** **** ** the *** ****-*** *** very ****** ********* ** promote *** ******* *********. In ****, *** ********** team ** ************ ** *** ******* the *****. ***? ******* management ***** ******* *** usually ****** ***** ** the ***** ****** ***** of *******. *** ***** the ***** ****** *********, the ******* ***** ********* the ******* ****.

******* ***** ***** ****, a ***** *****, *** despite * **** ** the ***** **** ** November, ***** ** ***** $21:

******* **** *% ******* for ***** *** ********* brand, ***** *** ******* annual ******* ** $** million, *** *** *****, CFO, ** ******** ******* investor **********.

******* ** ***** $***??? ($30M ** *% ** $3BN).

*** *********** #*, **** valuation ** **** ** determined ** *** ********* in *** ******** *****:

*********

*** *******'* ****** ********* is *** ~$*.* ******* USD (*** ******* ****** x ~$** *** *****) compared ** ******* ** ~$4.5 *******. ** ** low ******** ** *****.

***** **** ************ / half *********** ******* ***** valuation *** **** **** that, ** ** *** low.

************ **** ** *** significantly ***** ********** ******** to ***** ***** ***** those ********** ******** ***** income ******** ** ***** than *************. *** *******, Anixter **** ****** ~$ 8 ******* ** ******* but **** *** * public ****** ************** ** ~$2 *******. ** * similar *****, *** *** side ** *******'* ******** would ***** ** ~$*** million.

*** ********* **** **** of *** ******** ** significantly **** ********** **** the *** ****, **** though ***** *** ******** less *******. *************, **** with ****** ****** ***** like ********* ***** **** to ***** ** ** revenue ** ******.

********, **** ***** ************** put ******* ** * $3.2 ******* *********.

*****, *** ****'** ****** the *% ** *******, not *********. * *** assuming *** ********* *** a ****** *** ** future-looking ****/***** ** **, but **** **** ****'** basically ****** ** **. Guess * *******'* ** too *********, *** ****** considered.

******* ************** ** ********** *** the ***** **** **%:

***** * ******* *****? Place **** ****!

**** ******* **** *** past * ******:

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