Struggling Ascent Hiding Under Brinks

By Dan Gelinas, Published Aug 07, 2018, 10:00am EDT

The market cap of Brinks Home Security, Monitronics, MONI, Ascent Capital Group (whatever one calls them) is down 96% over the past 5 years as the stock chart below shows:

Despite announcing changing their brand to Brinks Home Security in February 2018, over the past 6 months, the stock is down 62% (just yesterday down ~10% after Q2 financials were announced) as the chart below shows:

The company is clearly struggling. But is being 'Brinks Home Security' making it any better? And is the company deceptively hiding under the Brinks name? In this note, we examine those questions.

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** *** ****** ** performance ** *** ******** and *********** ** *** stock ****** ******* **** change? ** ***** ********* have **** ****** ***** elsewhere? * **** ** Ascent's **** **-* ***** that ******** **** **** down **** *** **** two ***** *** *** loss **** ********** ********** has **** **.

** ** *** ***** to **** ************ ** the********* $* ******* *****-**** ** licensing **** ****** **** pay *** *** ****** ***** **** pay ***, *** ******'* deal **** ****** ** initially *** * ***** with ********** ** ***** to ***** *** ** beyond ** *****, ** maybe *****'* ***** ****.

***** *** ***** ** the *********, **** **** have ********* *** ** the ****** *** ****** Home ******** ********** ******* to *** *********** ***** home *** **** ******** categories ** *** *.* and ******.  **** **** pay *****’* ********* ********* fees *** ******* *** growth-based ********* **** **** increase ******** ** *** BRINKS **** ******** ***** is ************. **** ******* to *** *****-**** ********* of ************* $* *******. The ********* ******** *** an ******* **** ** seven ***** ***, ******* to ******* **********, ****** for ********** ******* ******* whereby **** *** ****** the ********* ****** ** years.

****** ****** ******* ** rebrand *****.

Poll / ****

Comments (12)

Undisclosed Integrator #1

08/07/18 02:09pm

Hmm...in the past 3 months, they have removed the huge moni sign off the top of their office building on valley view ln in dallas that was up less than a year.

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Larry Tracy

08/08/18 03:33am

I think the Brinks name can help their dealers but they have some serious basic business operational issues. 

Time for a new management team and it better be quick. 

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Lee Jones

Support Services Group
In reply to Larry Tracy | 08/08/18 06:22am

Agree with Larry.... The name change to Brinks Home Security would be a brilliant move…. if it were not too late….way too late. The Brinks name will attract new customers, but not solve the high attrition of existing customers. And the cost to replace lost revenue is equally as destructive. High debt, low cash, high attrition, sloppy management…. RIP.

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John Honovich

IPVM | In reply to Lee Jones | 08/08/18 12:14pm

Given the $5 million they project spending in the first year, how many customers do they expect / need to attract to make it profitable?

Rough numbers, let's say they are willing to pay $10 per month per account they get because of the Brinks name. At $5 million per year, this means 42,000 accounts won because of the Brinks name. Do you think this is a reasonable assumption? Do you think Brinks is strong enough to win so many accounts?

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Larry Tracy

In reply to John Honovich | 08/08/18 03:00pm

I had heard that a market survey was done many years ago and Brinks was the number one most recognized name for the consumer was thinking about a security system

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John Honovich

IPVM | In reply to Larry Tracy | 08/08/18 03:15pm

I can believe that but I wonder (1) how much it matters today, (2) how much it matters vs a competitive offering and (3) whether it is worth what they are paying.

I am an outsider here but it feels a little like lipstick on a pig, a superficial move that does not address their fundamental problems. And given their continuing declining stock price, it would seem investors are not impressed...

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Larry Tracy

08/08/18 03:35pm

Good questions, I think the stock decline is the investors no confidence vote in the management team and the current state of the financials.

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Undisclosed #2

IPVMU Certified | 08/08/18 05:05pm

Indeed, even the 'About Us' page has zero mentions of MONI nor Monitrorics. 

Show me the MONI!

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Undisclosed #3

In reply to Undisclosed #2 | 08/29/18 03:15pm

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Lee Jones

Support Services Group
08/29/18 02:22pm

Source; The Wall Street Journal• August 27, 2018

Brinks Home Security Owner Sued Over $100 Million 'Hail Mary' Restructuring Offer

LAJ Comment:

Applause, Applause.  Smart investors know you can hide the carcass, but not the smell. 

History repeating???  Some of us remember how Monitronics was founded.  Remove the critical cash from the MY ALARM founders and angel investors, then BK.  Assets purchased for pennies and renamed Monitronics.   

>end<

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Lee Jones

Support Services Group
In reply to Lee Jones | 09/01/18 04:43am

Friday at close of stock market.   Did we see the “dead cat bounce”…???

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Undisclosed #3

08/29/18 03:29pm

"Claiming the old customers under the new name is unlikely to deceive anyone in a way that makes a difference to their market choices."

If this theory was valid, then why else would they rebrand under a well-known - and allegedly trusted - brand?  Especially after their recent rebranding effort with MONI?

Answer:

Rebranding to sound more hip didn't work, so they decide to instead license a 'respected' brand and call themselves that thing.  i.e. attempting to make a difference in potential customers market choices.

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