Can Amazon Become The Next ADT? (2013)

By: Brian Rhodes, Published on Sep 19, 2013

The world's largest online retailer wants to sell you security. Amazon, who sold over $60 billion direct to end users last year, wants to add security, surveillance, and home automation to your orders for books, movies, and breakfast cereal. Will customers change the security market by cutting out the multinational alarm companies like ADT, Vivint, and Protection1, and choose Amazon? We look at those dynamics in this note.

The Amazon Threat

** *** ******** *****, we ****** ***** ******** that ******* ** *********** for ******:
  1. ****** ** **** **** trusted **** ***** *******
  2. ***** ******* ****** / gouge ********* ** **** recurring ****
  3. ****** ** **** ** live *** **** ***** margins *** ** ***

New '**** **********' ******

****** ****** * **** selection ** ********* *****,*** *** ******** ************* *** ******** ****** 'Home **********'**** ******** **** *****, security *******, ***** *******, and ***** ***********. *************, this *** ** ********* has **** *** ****** of ******** ********** *** dealers, *** ****** *** lists **** *,*** '**** automation' ******** ** ***** direct ** *** *****:

Headline *********

* ***** ***** ** the ****** ****** ****** in ***** ****** ******* industry ***** ****:

  • **********: **** ******** ** the ** '**** *****' markets, **** *** ********* system ******** *** **** sensor *****, * *** dialer, *** *****-**-***** ********** as * $** ******.
  • **** ********: ********* ******* * sub-$100 '*****' ****** ** monitor * *****/*******
  • *****: ********* ******** **** video *** ********* *******
  • *******: ****** ** ****** $50M, ***************** ** ***** **** 'DIY' ** ****
  • ******* ****: ********* ********************* ** ****** **** cellphones
  • *********: *********** ****** *******, with ****** ********** *** accessibility
  • *-****: ****** ******** ********* of '**** **********' ******** using***.**.* **********
  • *****: ****** *****, ****** notifications, *** ****
  • *-***: *** *** **** for **** '** ***** done *****'

******, ***** ***** ********* are *** *********** '******* brands' **** ***** *********** that *** ** ******* or ****** ******** **** mainstream ********** *******, ***** offerings *** ********* ** consumers **** * **** upside: *** ******** ***** is *****.

Amazon's *****and *****

***** **** ** ********* sell ***** ******* ** line, **** ** **** are ***** ******* ******* much ***** *** ******** with *** ******* ********. Amazon *** ~*** ******* customers *** *************+ ******* '***** *******'.

Peer *******

**** ***** ***** ******* from ******'* ******** *******. Unlike ********* ********* **** are **** ** '*** or *******' ********* ** alarm ******* ** *** users ****** *** *** best, ******** ** ****** sidestep '************' ******* ****** ******* a ******* ****** ** all ******* *****. ********* are **** ** **** the **** ********** ** reading ******, ******* ********, that ***** ******* *** product ******* ******** ********* is ******. ***** ****** Reviews ************* ** ************, **** *** ******* to *** *********** *** not ********* ********* *** most **** ******** ********.

No ******* ********

****** ******** **** ****** is **** ******** **** with '** ******* ********' - ***** *** ** monitoring *********, ****** ****, and ************/*********** ******* ********* to **** ****** *** endure. ** * **** wants ** ********* *****, they ****** *** ** have ** ******* *** the *********** ** ********, contrasted ******'*** *******' **** ********** costs *********.

A ********** *** ******

*** ****, '***** ** yourself' ** ** ********* alternative ** *** ******** models ** *** ****. Rather **** ******** **** a *****-**** ********* **** any ****** ** ***** companies ***** **************** ******** *************** ****** ********, ****** ** ****** cues **** **** ********* want: **** ******** ******* being ******* ** ********* alarm *********.

***********

*********, ******'* ********, **** as ** *******, **** have *********** *********** *** those *** ****, *** can ******, * *******, service **** ********* **** response.

Strongest ******

***** ******* ********* ****** the ******* ** ********* more **** **% ** homes. **** *********, *** cost, ********* *** *** complaints ***** ***** ********* all ********** ** **** constraint.

******, ** ** ***** up, **** ** **** effective *** *** ********* of *********** ****** ******* and ***** ******** ********* who **** ***** ***** and ******* *******. ***** Amazon *** **** **** little ***** ******** **** the ****, ** ***** prove ** * ***** barrier ** ******* ****** or ********* ** *********** alarm *******.

Comments (7)

I have long said that DIY will be the death of the small mom and pop dealer, as technology makes the systems ever easier to install, the internet makes communications issues obsolete, and cost reduces to the point that it's cheaper to just replace a bad device than to call for service. While Intrsusion and Surveillance have been dealing with this trend already, it is just starting to impact Access Control. The dealers and integrators that survive will be those that add value to the the end users's experience, including customer service, seamless integration of systems, customer service, better products at competetive prices, customer service, and a focus on meeting the customers needs rather than forcing them into whatever system the integrator happens to be selling. Oh, and Customer Service.

I used to work for an Integrator and now that i do not (and don't have access to cheap monitoring) I would use Amazon in a heartbeat as long as the reviews were good.

Brian.... Your crystal-ball (your post 5 years ago) was quite clear and accurate. Keep it polished and keep sharing.

Thanks. Interestingly, 5 years later, Amazon has deepened it's involvement in residential / consumer-grade security with the Amazon Billion+ Dollar Acquisition - Ring. We plan to test the Ring system later this summer when it ships.

Your crystal-ball (your post 5 years ago) was quite clear and accurate.

As someone who has been tracking Brian’s prognostications, both formal and ad hoc for some time now, I am continually amazed at his industry foresight.

Here’s one of his longer range shots, where he dismissively takes standard prediction and extends it by a factor of 10, just to show off ;)

Of course Amazon will conquer all. All devices need an Android operating system should speed things up. All the kids today making phone apps will expire the old security industry and we will finally have a software based devices capable of doing pretty much everything.

Thank You Alexa.

Also want to thank youtube.com for making the DIYer informed.

Thank You Alexa.

Also want to thank youtube.com for making the DIYer informed.

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