Is a Deep Drop Coming for Analog Video?

By John Honovich, Published May 16, 2010, 08:00pm EDT

Many technological transitions demonstrate flat sales growth for an incumbent category for a number of years followed by a dramatic collapse. One of the most famous researchers on innovation claim that this is a clear pattern in technology. It appears that this is pattern is now happening for physical mail / the postal service.

As we examined in the March 2010 report on "IP sales rebound, analog down", we noticed a sharp drop in analog incumbent sales. A key question is whether this is simply the impact of the recession or whether this is the beginning of the end for analog.

The best counterpoint to a steep drop in analog video is the lock-in of large analog systems that make migration expensive. The next 12 months will be crucial in determining whether a steep analog fall is simply a macroeconomic issue or the first leg in the final fall.

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