2009 IP Video Market Forecast

Author: John Honovich, Published on Oct 21, 2008

IP Video market growth will slow by 66% next year due to the unfolding financial implosion. It is critical for all of us to understand where it will slow, why it will slow and how the impact will be most felt. This report provides projections for 2009 revenue growth factoring in macroeconomic changes.

Here are the key projections:

  • IP Video market will grow 15% in 2009
  • Growth rate will shrink by 66% compared to 2008
  • Megapixel camera growth rate will be 30% in 2009
  • Video Analytic growth rate will be -10% in 2009
  • IP cameras and video management software growth will be 15% in 2009

** ***** ****** ****** **** **** ** **% **** **** due ** *** ********* ********* *********. ** ** ******** *** all ** ** ** ********** ***** ** **** ****, *** it **** **** *** *** *** ****** **** ** **** felt. **** ****** ******** *********** *** **** ******* ****** ********* in ************* *******.

**** *** *** *** ***********:

  • ** ***** ****** **** **** **% ** ****
  • ****** **** **** ****** ** **% ******** ** ****
  • ********* ****** ****** **** **** ** **% ** ****
  • ***** ******** ****** **** **** ** -**% ** ****
  • ** ******* *** ***** ********** ******** ****** **** ** **% in ****

[***************]

Easy ****** ** ****

*** **** ****** *** ********* *** ********** **** ************* *** last * ***** ** ********* ****. ** *********** ****** **** the ******* ********* ******** **** ** ******** *** **** ***** liquidity **** ** ******** ** *** ***********. ***********, **** **** this *******, *** ********** *** ******** ********* ** ******** ***** loans **** ***** ****** *** ******* ******** ** *** **** 5 *****. **** **** **** *********** ****** ** **** *** growth *** ******** ***********.

***********, *** ********* ****** ****** ** *** *** ******** (** of **/**/**). **** ********** *********** * ************* ** *** ****** market. ***********, **** ** ** ****** *** ****** ******* ****** to **** ********* ** ******** ** *** **** *** ******, damage *** **** ****. *** **** **** **** ***** **** projects ** *** ***** ****, *** ******* *** **** ** spending **** ****** **** ****** **** ********** ****** ******* ******** growth, ******** *** ********** *** ********* ** ****** ** *** capital ******** **** ** ***** *******.

Wealth ********* **** ******* ******** ********

** *** ******** ****, *** ******* **** ** **** ******* prices *** ****** **** ***** ********* ** ***** *** **** than **********. ******** ******** ******** *** ************* **% ** ***.  A ***** ********** ** ********** ******** ******** *** ********** ** **** ****** *** ********** ********* ** ******* *** equity ******. ****** **** ******* ** ******* **** *** **** *** years, ******* *** ****** ** ** ********.

*********** *** ******* ********* ** *** **** ********* ***** *** severe ****** ** *** ************* ** ******* ****** ********. *** chart ***** ************ *** *** ** *** **** ********* ******* mortgage ****** ***********. ***********, *** ******** ****** *********** ***** ******** growth ****** *** **** *********. ****, *********, **** *** ** the **** **** ****.

Capital ********* ******** **** ******* ** *******

**** ********* ******** **** *** ****** ***** *******, ******** **** have ** ***** **** ******* ********* ********.  **** *** ******* to ******* **** ******** ******* ****** ****** *** *** ******** to ****** ********* **** ********* *********.

** ***** **, ** **********, * ******* *******. *** ***** IP ***** ******* ** *** ******** ** *********** ** ****** CCTV ******* ******** ****** *** **** *** *****, ********* **** need ** ****** ******* ** **** **** ** **** ******** to ******** ** ***** *******. *** ********* ******** ** ****** will ** *******. *** ******* ** ******** ******** **** ****** will ** ****** **** – ********** ********** ** **** ** these ******* **** **** ******** ** *** **** * *****. Stretching *** *** **** ** **** **** ******* *** ** extra **** **** ********* ** **** ********.

******* ** ******* ******** *** ******* ****** **. *** ********,******* *****************, “******** *** **** ***** **** ** ** ******* **** have ********* ** ********* **** ** ***** *** **** **** have ********* ***** ****** ****** ******* *** ********* *********; *** also **** **** ***** ******** ****** ***** ******* ************* ** evidenced ** *** ****-*** ** **** ********** ******* *****. ***** are *** ********, *** *****. ** ****** ******* **** ****, or ****** ** ****** ** ******* ***** ******** ******* ************, they **** *** ** *********; ** **** **** ** ********* in ******* **********. ************** **** *** ********* ** **** ******* finance *** ********** ** **** ***** ********* *****. *** ********, last ***** *** ***** ******** ***** **** ***** ** ** could *** ** ******, *** *** ***** ** *********** *** able ** **** ********* **** ***** **** ***********.“

**** *** *** *** **** ***** ****** ******** ********* ******** ***** *** ** *** ******** ******, * ******* **** *** ***** ********** ***** ***** ** resistant ** **** ****. *******, **** * ****** ** ***** companies *** ******* ** ******** ** ******** – **** ******* and **********, ***'* ****** ******** ** “*** ***** *** *** ********* ** **** ****.”

Pressure ** *** ***** ** ******** **** ** ***********

******** ******** **** **** *** ***** ***** ********** **** ** cut ** ****** ****** ********. **** ** ** ***** ****, the ***** ** ***** ** *** ******** ********, ****** ** handle ** ****** ********** *********. ***********, **** ** * **** defined ******* ** ******** ******* ******** ** ****** ** * cost ******.

******** *********** *** **** **** ****** ** **** ****** ** handle ********* ** *****. **** *** ********** **** ** ************, the **** ** ****** **** ********. ****, ****** *** ** operating ******* *** ********* ********* ** **** *** ******* ** pulled ** ********. **** ******** **** ******* ********* *********** **** an ** ***** ******.

But *** ***'* **** **** **** ** ***** ** **?

**** ** * ****** ******** ** *** ***** **** ******** costs **** ** ***. ****, ** ******, **** *** *********: (1) ** *** ******** **** *** ** ***** ****** ***** (see ***** *** **********) *** (*) *** ** *** ******* the ***** ** * ********* **** ****** ** ** ****** a *********.

** * ***** *******, *** ******* ******** **** ** ** keep ****** *** ***** ******** ***** ***** *** *********** ***** (unlikely ** ****).

IP ***** *** ********* *** ********** **** ** *********

******* *** **** *** ***** ** ***** *** ********* *** operations, **** *** ** ********* **** ********** **** ****** ********. I **** ********* *********** ******** ** **** ***** *** *** only *********** * *** ****** **** *** ****** ** ****** counting. ****** ******** ** **** *** ***** **** ** **** only ** **** ** * *** ******* *** ********, *** growth ** **** ******** **** ** ******.

******** ************ **** ** ******* ** *** ******* *** **** decreases. **** **** **** * *********** ****** ** **** ***** analytics ** ******* *** *** ********* ** ** ***** ** retail.

Weak *** ** ** ***** **** ** *******

*** *** ** ** ***** ** ********* ****. ********* ** Axis' *** *******, ****** ********* ** **** *-**%. ** * ***, ********** ** * *********, ***** **** not ** **********, ********** ***** **** ******* *** ************ ******* that ********* ** *** ******* **** ****** ******* *** ****** cameras ** ***** (**** ** * **** ****** *** ****** assumption). *** ******** ** ** ***** **** ** *******.

* **** ** ***** ***** ***** ** **** ********** ************ should ****** ***** ** **%. *** ******* ** *** ****** cable ******. ***** ****** ******** '**** ******' **** ***** ********* at **% **** *****. **** ****** ***** ********* **** ** to ***** ***** *** ******** ***. *************, ** ***** ****** such ******** ** *********** ****** ***** ******* ******** ** **** a ***** ******** ** ******** ******.

**** ***** *** ********* *********** ********** *** **** ** *** of *** ******** ************ *******. ** * ******* *****, *** most ************* ** ** ***** ********** ** *** **** ***** above. **** *** ********* *** ** ********** ****** * **** market *** **** ** **** ********* ** ******* ** * time ***** ***** *** **** **** ********* ********.

The *******

******* ** ***** *******, * ****** ******* ** ***** ******** to **** ************* ** **** **% ******. ********* ******* **** do ****** ******* ** ** ** ******** ********** **** **** value.  *******, *** ****** *** ***** ********* **** ****** ** 10% ** ******* *********** *** ********* ** **** ***** ***** purchasers ** ********.

*** ********* *** ** ***** ** ******** ** **** ** that (*) *** ***** **** ** *** ****** ** ***** small *** (*) ***** *** ****** ***** ** ***** *** a ****** ******** ****. ***********, *** ***** **** ****** ** the **** *** ***** (**%+) **** ** *********** ********** *** the ******** ** ********* ** ***** ********** (****, **** **** not **** **** ********** ******* ****** ******* **%+ ******).

*** ***'* ******* *** ****** ** * *** ****** ******* basis:

** ****** *******

*******

******* ** ****** ** ** *** ******* *** ****** ** IP *****. ***** **** ****** *** ******* ******** ******** *******. Consolidation ** ***** **** ***** ********** ** ********. ******* **** importantly, *** *** ** *** ******* **** **** ****** *** of *** *** ****** ******* ** **** ******** – **** originations. *** **** ********* ** **** ******** **** ****** ** reversed ** ******** ****** **** **********. ***** *** ***** **** of **** **** ********, ** ***** *** * **** *** historically. **** ** *** ****** ******** ****** **** ******* *** situation.

******

*** *** ******* ******* ** ** ***** ******, ******** ********* and ******** ************, ** ****** *** ***** **********. **** ******** spending ***** **** ***, *** ***** ****-**** *** ****** ** be ************ *******. *********, **** ******* ************* ******* (** ****** being ********), ****** ********* ** ** **** **** ********* ** spend (**** **** ** **** ******). ****** **** ****** ** file ********** ** *** ****** ****** *** *** ********* ** consumer ******** ****** *** ******. *******, ******* *** **** *** business ************, *** ********** ** **** ************ **** ********** *****. The *** ****** *** ******** ************ ******** **** *** *********** in ****.

*********

********* ** *** **, ** *** *** *********, ******** ** IP *****. *** *********** ********* **** ****** ** ******** ** strength. *** *** **** *** ********* ** ****** ** *******. Public ******* ** **** ************** **** **** ***** ****** ****. Private ******* *** ******* ****** ******* ****** ** ***** **********. This ** *****, ** *****, ** ***** ****** ** **** projects.

*******

** *** ** *** ******, ** *** ********** * ***** shift **** ******** ****** ** ******** ********* **** ** *** governmental ********. *************, *** ***** ******* ********* *** * ***** driver ** ** ***** ********. **** *** ********** ******** *** budgets ******** *******, ****** **** ******** *** ******* ******** ** be ***. ************, ** *** **, ***** ******* ***********, ** Obama ******* ***** ****** ********* ****** ** *********** ****** *** likely ***** ********** ** ******* ********. **** ****** ***** ** felt ****** *********** ***** *** ******** ** *** *********** *** projects ** ****, ******** **** ** *** ****** ** *** governmental ******.

But * ** *** ****** **** ******? (November 2008)

***** ** * ***, ** *****, ******* ******** ****** *** business *******. **** *** ***-***** ******** ******. **** ******* ***** broke ** ****** *** *** *** ********* ****** **** ******* to ** **** * ** * ****** *****. ********, *** unwinding **** ********* ** ******* ********, ******** ** ******** ******** as **** ******* **** **** ***** *** **** (*** ***), budget ********** ** *********** ****** ********** ********, ***., ***.

***********, ************* **** ****. **** ********* *** ******* ******* *** impact *** ****** *** ***. * ** ******* ******** ******* about ******** ***** “******* * *******.” *** ***** ***** ***** such ****** ** **** **** ** ***** ******** **** ********** be ********. *** ******* **** ********* ******** ** ****** ** the *********** ******, ******* ******* ******** ** ***** ********.

What ** ***** **** **?

*****, *** *********, *** *** **** ***** ** *** ****** of *** ******. **** * ****** ******** ***********, *** ****** for ***** ************ ** ****** ********* ** ******* **** ******** to *** ***** **** ** *** ******. * **** *** speculate ** *** *********** ** * ********* *****. ***********, ** a ******* *** *** ** *****, **** ***** ********* ***** demand *** ***** ************.

** *** *****, *** *** ********* *** ***** *** (*) how **** **** ***** **** *** (*) *** **** ******** managers ******* ** *** ****** ** *****. ******** ******* * balanced ********* ** ************ *** ********* ****** **** ** ********* *** *** **** *****. ** ** ********** ** ****** crime **** **** ** ***** ******* *** ********** ********* *******. What ** ********* ** ******* ** *** **** ***** **** rise.

*** ***** **** ** **** ********* ** ******* ** *** choices ******** ******** **** *** ** ****** ******* *****. *** most ********* ***** ** ********* ******** ****** (******* *** ******** reputation). *** ***** ********* ***** ** ********* ********* ********* *******. I ***** ****** ***** ***** ** ******** ***** *** **** heavily ** ****** ********* ** *****. ** *** **** ****, depending ** *** *********** *** *** ***** ** *****, ***** surveillance ****** ********** ******** ****** ** ****. *******, ** ** unlikely **** **** **** ************* ****** *** ******* ******** ********* nor *** ********** ** *******.

Is **** **** *** *** **?

**** ********** ** **** ********** ** *** ** *** ** Northern ****** *** ** ****, ** **********, ****** ***** ******* most ******** *** *************. *******, ***** *** ***** **** ** those ******* *** ***** ********** ** ** ***** (******** **% of *** ***** ***** ******), *** ****** **** ** ***********. Moreover, ***** *** ***** ***** ******* **** ** *** ***** economy, **** **** ********** ****** ** ***** ******** ** *** rest ** *** ***** ** ***** **** ** ******** ******* growth ** ***** ***** (*** ********, ***** *** ****** *** OPEC ********* *** **** *************/*********** ***** **** ****).

** * ******* ** ******* *****, *** ****** **** ********* vary. * ****** ******* * **** ******** *** **** ******* as ** ******** * ******* ************* ** **** ******* – some ****** *** ****** ******** *** **** ***** *** ****** positive. *** ********, ** ******, ***** **** *********** ******* *** ******* *****, *** ****** *********** ****** ** ******** **** *** **.

What ***** *** **** *** ******?

********** ********** ** **** *** ****** ******* **** *******. ** need ** *** **** *** *** ******* ******* *** ** video ******* *******. *** ***** ** *** ****** ** ***** unclear *** *** ********** ******* ** **** ************* ******** *** regulations *** *** ** *****. ** *** ****** ****, *** inevitable **** ******** ************ **** ** ****, * ****** ** manufacturers **** *****, ******** ************* **** ***** ********** *** ******* will ** *******. ********* ** **** *********** ** ***** ****** occur *** ** **** **** ******* ********* *** ********** ** 2010.

**** ***** ****, ********** ******* ******* ******* ** *** **** run ** ******** *** ******** *** ******* ********* ** ******** to ******* **** *****.

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