IMS's 2010/2011 Predictions Examined

Author: John Honovich, Published on Jan 05, 2011

In this note, we highlight and critique video surveillance predictions from IMS Research for 2010 and 2011. For background, review the 2011 IMS report and the 2010 report. At the beginning of 2010, we critiqued their predictions from last year (see our 2010 critique).

Let's start with recapping some notable points from the 2011 report:

  • In a self-assessment, IMS claimed to be at least partially accurate for (9) of their (10) 2010 predictions, admitting error on, "searchable analytics will be the next growth area for video content analytics", noting that the "video analytics market experienced a relatively muted" 2010.
  • Brazil's 2010 video surveillance growth was over 15%, one of the highest in the world
  • "HDcctv will be a strong trend impacting the video surveillance market in 2011"
  • "The mist clears on cloud based video surveillance"
  • "2011 will be the year VCA looks beyond security"
  • "From HD to 3D ... increasing number of manufacturers will begin to experiment with 3D"
  • IP Tipping Points reviewed - more sales of IP than analog: already happened in Middle East and the overall education market, predicted for airports, ports and utilities in 2012, EMEA in 2012, Americas in 2013
  • 30% of IP camera shipments in 2011 will be megapixel, projected to 60% on 2015

Some comments and observations:

  • Missing on the analytics prediction: As we pointed out in our critique last year on the search analytics prediction, very few providers offer search analytics and third party integration is very uncommon (i.e. most systems are proprietary). As such, significant uptake will be difficult. However, in 2010, AgentVi released search analytics and Briefcam expanded theirs so options are increasing but it's a long slow road.
  • Video analytic manufacturers have looked beyond security for years. As soon as vendors realized a few years ago that security analytics were going to have problems, they tried looking elsewhere. What has come of it is not much (see our note on the tiny business intelligence market as an example). Eventually all the hype for video analytics will come true but there's not a lot of bullish signs pointing for 2011.
  • Contrary to the mist clearing around VSaaS in 2011, I suspect widespread disillusionment will set in. In the first half of 2010, a new VSaaS company seemed to launch every week. Now, you might see one every so often. The 'honeymoon' period is over and we are moving into the trenches where more strategic problems will come to light. See our VSaaS ROI critique for commentary on this point. Contrast to Envysion, one company taking a contrarian approach to VSaaS that looks to be better positioned than the pack.
  • HDcctv will only be a strong trend if the products are price competitive. Contrary to IMS's claims, Speco has been shipping HDcctv products for months and the Speco cameras are equal or more expensive than comparable IP cameras. Unless HDcctv upfront product costs are significantly cheaper than MP IP cameras, HDcctv has no chance of taking off. We do not know what the prices will be but if they are not substantially lower than MP IP by this summer, HDcctv will be a dud.
  • 3D is almost not worth talking about. Unless you have lots of government money to waste on experiments, it will be years before the products provide practical benefits. DvTel's 3D marketing push at the end of 2010 spurred market discussion but the bigger risk is that DvTel loses focus while their prime competitors enhance their core VMS offerings (Milestone Corporate 4.0, Genetec SecurityCenter 5.0, etc.).
  • The rapid shift to megapixel is well under way. Just last week, ACTi discontinued most of their SD IP cameras, citing this shift in sales.
Comments : PRO Members only. Login. or Join.

Related Reports

Cloud Video Storage Usage 2018 on Oct 31, 2018
Storing email and documents in the cloud have long been common, with on-site email or file servers increasingly eliminated. However, what about...
IP Camera Installation Tool Shootout - Avigilon, Axis, Ideal, Hanwha, Triplett, Veracity on Oct 23, 2018
Setting up IP cameras has historically been challenging, with techs often precariously using a laptop on a ladder or lift. Some options for install...
Directory Of 110+ Video Management Software (VMS) Suppliers on Aug 30, 2018
This directory provides a list of Video Management Software providers to help you see and research what options are available. Listing...
Directory of Video Surveillance Startups on Jul 18, 2018
This directory provides a list of video surveillance startups to help you see and research what companies are new or not yet broadly known entity...
UK VSaaS Startup Ocucon on Jul 03, 2018
Decreasing exposure to fraudulent slip-and-fall insurance claims and lawsuits is one of the oldest selling points of video surveillance for retail....
Camio Wins 24,000 Camera AI VSaaS Customer on Jun 29, 2018
Silicon Valley Artificial Intelligent VSaaS startup Camio has announced it has won a 24,000 camera deal, a sizeable system for a small...
Hanwha Mega ISC West Product Releases on Apr 05, 2018
While overall new product releases have been slowing over the past few years, Hanwha is releasing a slew of 6 new offerings for ISC West,...
Directory of 50+ LPR / ANPR Providers on Feb 21, 2018
License Plate Recognition / Automatic Number Plate Recognition are a type of video analytics software that can identify and match license / number...
Smartvue VSaaS / Cloud Video Profile on Feb 01, 2018
Smartvue, a US company, has raised over $20 million to develop 'The IoT Video Network' but what does that mean and what does Smartvue offer...
VSaaS Usage Statistics 2018 on Jan 18, 2018
VSaaS has been a 'next big thing' for more than a decade. The prospect of managing, storing and streaming video from the cloud rather than...

Most Recent Industry Reports

'Sticker' Surveillance Camera Developed (CSEM Witness) on Nov 16, 2018
The Swiss Center for Electronics and Microtechnology (CSEM) has announced what it calls the: world’s first fully autonomous camera that can be...
ISC East 2018 Mini-Show Final Report on Nov 16, 2018
This is our second (updated) and final show report from ISC East. ISC East, by its own admission, is not a national or international show, billed...
Facial Detection Tested on Nov 16, 2018
Facial detection and recognition are increasingly offered by video surveillance manufacturers. Facial detection detects faces in an image/video...
Throughtek P2P/Cloud Solution Profile on Nov 15, 2018
Many IoT manufacturers either do not have the capabilities or the interest to develop their own cloud management software for their devices....
ASIS Offering Custom Research For Manufacturers on Nov 15, 2018
Manufacturers often want to know what industry people think about trends and, in particular, the segments and product they offer.  ASIS and its...
Hikvision Silent on "Bad Architectural Practices" Cybersecurity Report on Nov 14, 2018
A 'significant vulnerability was found in Hikvision cameras' by VDOO, a startup cybersecurity specialist. Hikvision has fixed the specific...
French Government Threatens School with $1.7M Fine For “Excessive Video Surveillance” on Nov 14, 2018
The French government has notified a high-profile Paris coding academy that it risks a fine of up to 1.5 million euros (about $1.7m) if it...
Integrator Credit Card Alternative Divvy on Nov 13, 2018
Most security integrators are small businesses but large enough that they have various employees that need to be able to expense various charges as...
Directory of Video Intercoms on Nov 13, 2018
Video Intercoms, also known as Video Door-Phones or Video Entry Systems, have been growing in the past decade as more and more IP camera...
Beware Amazon Go Store Hype (Tested) on Nov 13, 2018
IPVM's trip to and testing of Amazon Go's San Francisco store shows a number of significant operational and economic issues that undermine the...

The world's leading video surveillance information source, IPVM provides the best reporting, testing and training for 10,000+ members globally. Dedicated to independent and objective information, we uniquely refuse any and all advertisements, sponsorship and consulting from manufacturers.

About | FAQ | Contact