IMS's 2010/2011 Predictions Examined
In this note, we highlight and critique video surveillance predictions from IMS Research for 2010 and 2011. For background, review the 2011 IMS report and the 2010 report. At the beginning of 2010, we critiqued their predictions from last year (see our 2010 critique).
Let's start with recapping some notable points from the 2011 report:
- In a self-assessment, IMS claimed to be at least partially accurate for (9) of their (10) 2010 predictions, admitting error on, "searchable analytics will be the next growth area for video content analytics", noting that the "video analytics market experienced a relatively muted" 2010.
- Brazil's 2010 video surveillance growth was over 15%, one of the highest in the world
- "HDcctv will be a strong trend impacting the video surveillance market in 2011"
- "The mist clears on cloud based video surveillance"
- "2011 will be the year VCA looks beyond security"
- "From HD to 3D ... increasing number of manufacturers will begin to experiment with 3D"
- IP Tipping Points reviewed - more sales of IP than analog: already happened in Middle East and the overall education market, predicted for airports, ports and utilities in 2012, EMEA in 2012, Americas in 2013
- 30% of IP camera shipments in 2011 will be megapixel, projected to 60% on 2015
Some comments and observations:
- Missing on the analytics prediction: As we pointed out in our critique last year on the search analytics prediction, very few providers offer search analytics and third party integration is very uncommon (i.e. most systems are proprietary). As such, significant uptake will be difficult. However, in 2010, AgentVi released search analytics and Briefcam expanded theirs so options are increasing but it's a long slow road.
- Video analytic manufacturers have looked beyond security for years. As soon as vendors realized a few years ago that security analytics were going to have problems, they tried looking elsewhere. What has come of it is not much (see our note on the tiny business intelligence market as an example). Eventually all the hype for video analytics will come true but there's not a lot of bullish signs pointing for 2011.
- Contrary to the mist clearing around VSaaS in 2011, I suspect widespread disillusionment will set in. In the first half of 2010, a new VSaaS company seemed to launch every week. Now, you might see one every so often. The 'honeymoon' period is over and we are moving into the trenches where more strategic problems will come to light. See our VSaaS ROI critique for commentary on this point. Contrast to Envysion, one company taking a contrarian approach to VSaaS that looks to be better positioned than the pack.
- HDcctv will only be a strong trend if the products are price competitive. Contrary to IMS's claims, Speco has been shipping HDcctv products for months and the Speco cameras are equal or more expensive than comparable IP cameras [link no longer available]. Unless HDcctv upfront product costs are significantly cheaper than MP IP cameras, HDcctv has no chance of taking off. We do not know what the prices will be but if they are not substantially lower than MP IP by this summer, HDcctv will be a dud.
- 3D is almost not worth talking about. Unless you have lots of government money to waste on experiments, it will be years before the products provide practical benefits. DvTel's 3D marketing push at the end of 2010 spurred market discussion but the bigger risk is that DvTel loses focus while their prime competitors enhance their core VMS offerings (Milestone Corporate 4.0, Genetec SecurityCenter 5.0, etc.).
- The rapid shift to megapixel is well under way. Just last week, ACTi discontinued most of their SD IP cameras, citing this shift in sales.