IMS Moves Up Their Tipping Point to IP

By John Honovich, Published May 10, 2012, 08:00pm EDT

The most polarizing debate of the last few years is when the video surveillance market will 'tip' to IP video (i.e., be more than 50%). Last year, we declared that the market had already tipped to IP video for new projects in Western countries. Nonetheless, many detractors argued that IP video still was globally a small fraction of the market.

IMS Research statistics have been a key metric in these debates. Even last year, IMS projected that network video would not overtake analog sales until 2014. Now, IMS has moved up the date to 2013 - mere months away until their tipping point. The key factor in the accelerated projection, according to IMS is, "Significantly stronger uptake of network video surveillance equipment in Asia."

If you are a proponent and want a third-party to cite a milestone, there you go.

If you are a detractor, you will note that this is in total revenue, not units. Even if network video leads in sales, the higher average cost of network equipment means that analog would still lead in total units, at least for some time.

As we argued previously, these global numbers are skewed in two critical dimensions - the disproportionate use of analog in Asia and mixing of new projects with maintenance sales (replacements, expansion of existing systems, etc.). For those making new project buying decisions in Western countries, these factors mislead the most likely and most correct decision - which is clearly now IP video.

That said, the tipping point claims will remain a key factor in marketing debates.

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