Global Video Surveillance Market to Double in 3 Years

A research firm has issued a forecast claiming that the global video surveillance market will double over the next 3 years [link no longer available]. Their forecast includes the entire market - both analog and IP video.

Specifically, they claim the current global market for video surveillance is $13 Billion USD and that it is "anticipated to grow at a CAGR of more than 27% during 2009-2012."

At that growth rate, the market would slightly more than double in a 3 year period.

This is extremely unlikely and far out of line from even the most aggressive forecasts (see ABI's numbers). Also, the firm producing these numbers, RNCOS, is rarely, if ever, cited by industry people.

I recommend you not use these numbers for any serious forecasting or planning.

On the other hand, from speaking dozens of people, it's clear that many like big numbers to impress/excite investors or financiers, regardless of the authenticity. I think it is a dangerous practice.

[Update 2012: This obviously did not come true. Most industry analysts estimate about half the growth rate.]