Global Video Surveillance Growth Rates Declining Sharply

Author: John Honovich, Published on Jun 06, 2014

Just a few months ago, recall the hype for the video surveillance market growing 80% over the next few years. Well, not so fast.

IMS / IHS's new numbers quietly but clearly show significant declines in estimates for 2013 market size, 2013 growth rate and estimates for 2014.

In this note, we break down these declines and show the 3 key factors pressuring down growth for the surveillance market.

**** * *** ****** ***, ****** *** **** *** *** ***** surveillance ****** ******* **% **** *** **** *** *****. ****, not ** ****.

*** / ***'* *** ******* ******* *** ******* **** *********** declines ** ********* *** **** ****** ****, **** ****** **** and ********* *** ****.

** **** ****, ** ***** **** ***** ******** *** **** the * *** ******* ********** **** ****** *** *** ************ ******.

[***************]

Declining ********* / ***********

** * **** **** ************, *** ** ********** ******* *** the global ***** ************ ********* ****** ** ** $** ******* ***. Though **** ***** ***** *****, ** ** * **** ** nearly * ******* ******* **** ************ **** ************ $**.* ******* ***, **** * ****** *****.

**** **** *********, *** ** ********** ****'* ****** ****** **** was '****** *%', ******** ** ***** ********** ** **** ****** **** year ** **** **** **%.

** ******, *** ******* *** ****** *** ***** ******* *** likely **** *****, ** *** ****** ****** ********* ** ** pulled ** ** ***** ** ********** *********, *********** *****.

***********, *** ** ***** ********** **** ****** ****** ** **.*% (from $**.* ** $** ******* ***), ****** **** ******** **** their ******** **%+ ********.

*******, ** **** ****** *** *** **** *%, *** ***** anyone ****** *** **** ****** **** ** ** **%+ ****** than ****? **'* ************, ***** ** ********** **** ** ******* **** *** *** ******* *** ****** ******* *** ******.

3 *** ******* ********** **** ******

*****,** ** ********** *** ******. *** **** ** ******** *** **%+ ** ******* ************ revenue, ***** ** ****** **** ****** ** *******. * *** years ***, **** ** *** **** **% ** **%, ** was ****** ** ****** / ******* ******** *******. **********, ***** of ** *** ********* ******** ******* ********** ** *********, ***** reduce ****** *************.

********, ********** ** ****. ** **** *** *************** **** *** ******** *********************, ***** ** **** *** **** **** *** ******** ** emerging ************ ** ***** ****** ** ******** **** ** ******* sooner. ********* *** * *** **** ** ******** ****** **** the **** * ******** ******** ****** ********* ***. ** *** ***** ******** ****** *** ***** *********...

*******, *** **** ******** *** *******. ** *** ****** **** ***** ** * *** '**********' trend, ** ** ******* ************* ******* **** *** **** ** megapixel. ** ** ********* ** *** ** **** (*.*., **************) *** *** ** *** ***-**/****** ** **** (*.*.,***** *****). **** ** ********** **** **** *** *********, *** ***** price ***** *** ********* *** **** *** **********, ********* **** pull **** ******* ******* ****** (******* $*** ***** *** $*** ones, ***.), *** *** ** *********** *** *********** ** **** further ******* ***** *******.

Comments (7)

John,

Do the IMS / IHS numbers provide greater granularity on the market conditions for the US in 2013 and projections for 2014? I want to be respectful of their research and understand that you probably cannot disclose all of their proprietary information as it is how they make money, however as a past subscriber to their info myself I am curious on how their research speaks to the US specifically.

On a separate note, I wonder if you would add a 4th key factor pressuring growth and that is the overall US economy slowing down. Many researchers have shown the overall US GDP declined nearly 1% in Q1, and while the physical security industry does not coorelate directly to GDP, the overall lack of growth / spend in the US would have a significant impact on an product segment that is commonly viewed as an expense (rather than a profit center) in most end user organizations. Thoughts?

Rob,

I agree that overall economic growth is a factor for the industry. I have seen similar reports about lower US GDP growth / decline. On the other hand, economic growth in North America and Europe has not been great for years.

The big risk is if we enter another recession. It's been 6 years since the start of the last one, so perhaps we are 'due' for one soon, but that is just speculation. However, a recession now would hit the industry much harder than in 2008, because the shift to MP / IP at that time, counterbalanced. Now, what do we have?

As for IMS's US specific new numbers, I do not have access to them. However, typically, IMS projects the US at roughly half the rate of Asia and at/or below the overall global rate.

Btw, speaking of lower economic growth, things are so bad in Europe now that the European Central Bank has just moved to negative interest rates.

So essentially you get to pay banks for the privilege of letting them hold your money...

Maybe that will help spur growth but it is no doubt how problematic the economy has become and how limited the options are left to improve.

This is a really interesting topic with negative intertest rates. In addition EU authorities are discussing the idea of "bail-in" procedures when bankrupted banks will be saved by giving them the ablity to just steal take money of their clients, about the same way how it was done in Cyprus.

In Cyprus most of clients who had more than 100 000 EUR, lost their money above this 100 000 EUR limit.

Do we know how IMS/IHS got their numbers? I've heard that the analysts there tend to be recent college grads with minimal experience, and their numbers largely finger-in-the-wind guessing.

While their analysts tended to have little work and no industry experience, they get a lot of there numbers directly from big manufacturers, who likely have more incentive to pad than underreport their numbers.

Also, IMS / IHS tends to be disproportionately bullish, as most manufacturers want to hear (aka pay tens of thousands for) rising numbers / trends, not declining ones.

In absolute terms, I would be skeptical of their market size numbers (in fairness, it's hard for anyone with such a fragmented market). However, if IMS is revising their numbers downward, it's another relevant sign pointing towards weakness in the market.

I take you point that the IP conversion is almost, or materially, over and that innovation has slowed. It seems surveillance has reached statsis. However, recent acquisitions, Milestone and DropCam, seem to indicate something going on but difficult to discern what that is.

Login to read this IPVM report.
Why do I need to log in?
IPVM conducts unique testing and research funded by member's payments enabling us to offer the most independent, accurate and in-depth information.

Related Reports on Sales

Worst Access Control 2018 on Apr 18, 2018
Three access control providers stood out as providing the most problems for integrators. In this report, we analyze the answers to: "In the...
Eocortex / Macroscop VMS Company Profile on Apr 09, 2018
Eocortex is the international brand of Russian VMS manufacturer Macroscop. Macroscop was founded in 2008, and the Eocortex name created in 2013. We...
Top 4 Biggest Problems Selling Access Control 2018 on Mar 23, 2018
We received 150+ responses from integrators when we asked them "What is the biggest problem you face when selling electronic access control?...
Security Robot Sales Struggle on Mar 21, 2018
2 year ago, PSA Security CEO Bill Bozeman called security robots one of “the biggest game changers” in decades for security integrators. Just over...
Free Manufacturer Trip To China - CCTV.Net / Univew on Mar 15, 2018
Pack your bags? 'Closer than you think'? Well, a non-stop flight from NYC to Shanghai is 15 hours plus another 100 miles to Hangzhou...
Panasonic Selling Off Security Camera Factory on Mar 14, 2018
Panasonic is OEMing cameras from Dahua, as IPVM testing confirmed in 2017. Now, Panasonic is selling their security camera factory, according to...
Favorite Camera Manufacturers 2018 on Mar 12, 2018
A number of major moves in integrator's favorite camera rankings for 2018: Two manufacturers make major moves up One major manufacturer moves...
Avigilon Breaks $400 Million Revenue, Quadruples Profit, Weakens Competitiveness on Mar 07, 2018
The last annual Avigilon financials are here. With the imminent Motorola acquisition completion, Avigilon will cease to be an independent publicly...
Hanwha Techwin Spins Out Security Business on Mar 06, 2018
In an era of security acquisitions and mergers, with most recently Avigilon being acquired by Motorola and Bosch merging its security businesses,...
ADT: "Hate That Company" Loses Billion On Amazon Ring Deal on Mar 02, 2018
It has not been a good 2018 for ADT. And this week has been even worse. In the aftermath of Amazon acquiring Ring for a billion plus, ADT's...

Most Recent Industry Reports

Last Chance - April 2018 IP Networking Course on Apr 19, 2018
Today is the last day to register for our IP Networking course. Register now. NEW - 2 sessions per class, 'day' and 'night' to give you double...
Rare Video Surveillance Fundraising - Verkada $15 Million on Apr 19, 2018
Fundraising in video surveillance (and the broader physical security market) has been poor recently. Highlights are few and far in between...
'Best In Show' Fails on Apr 19, 2018
ISC West's "Best In Show" has failed. For more than a decade, it has become increasingly irrelevant as the selections exhibit a cartoon level...
Security Camera Cleaning Frequency Statistics on Apr 18, 2018
150+ integrators told IPVM how often they clean cameras on customer's sites and why.  Inside we examine their answers and break down feedback...
Worst Access Control 2018 on Apr 18, 2018
Three access control providers stood out as providing the most problems for integrators. In this report, we analyze the answers to: "In the...
Axis VMD4 Analytics Tested on Apr 17, 2018
Axis is now on its 4th generation of video motion detection (VMD), which Axis calls "a free video analytics application." In this generation, Axis...
Arecont CEO And President Resign on Apr 17, 2018
This is good news for Arecont. Arecont's problems have been well known for years (e.g., most recently Worst Camera Manufacturers 2018 and starting...
Strong ISC West 2018, Says Manufacturers, GSX / ASIS Expected Weaker on Apr 17, 2018
Manufacturers say ISC West 2018 was strong, continuing the trend we have seen in 2017 results and 2016 results. However, those same 100...
Key Control For Access Control Tutorial on Apr 16, 2018
End users spend thousands on advanced systems to keep themselves secure, but regularly neglect one of the lest expensive yet most important aspects...
Best and Worst ISC West 2018 on Apr 16, 2018
ISC West 2018 had strong attendance, modest overall new products, and a surge in Artificial Intelligence marketing. First, here are 20+...

The world's leading video surveillance information source, IPVM provides the best reporting, testing and training for 10,000+ members globally. Dedicated to independent and objective information, we uniquely refuse any and all advertisements, sponsorship and consulting from manufacturers.

About | FAQ | Contact