Fool's Bet: Amateur Stock Investing

Author: John Honovich, Published on Nov 05, 2015

Investors in public companies, including video surveillance, have a massive information edge. This is something I have witnessed first hand talking to them over the past 7 years for various surveillance manufacturers.

Like playing the lotto, any fool can win once in a while, but amateurs face a vast disadvantage against the pros.

In this note, I share examples of things that professional investors know and do that impressed me and show how much more sophisticated they are compared to amateurs.

********* ** ****** *********, ********* ***** ************, **** * ******* information ****. **** ** ********* * **** ********* ***** **** talking ** **** **** *** **** * ***** *** ******* surveillance *************.

**** ******* *** *****, *** **** *** *** **** ** a *****, *** ******** **** * **** ************ ******* *** pros.

** **** ****, * ***** ******** ** ****** **** ************ investors **** *** ** **** ********* ** *** **** *** much **** ************* **** *** ******** ** ********.

[***************]

**********

*** ******** ** ******* ********* *** ************ ****,**** *** ******** ********** *********. ** ******** ** ******** ************, ********** **** **** ***** trying ** ********** *** *** '******' '*********' **** ****.

*********

************ ********* *** ********* ********* / ******* ******** ** ******* (or ****) ** * ***** *******. **** ***** **** *** and ** ****** ******** **** ** ********* ** ******* ***** research, ********* **** **** *** ******** *** *****. **** ** not *********** ******, ** *** **** ** ** *** *** time.

********

**** ****** ***** ** ******** ** ******* ****** ******* ******* but **** ** ******* *********** ** **** * ************ ******** gets. ***** ********* *** ********* ***** ***** *********** **** ******** individuals **** ** *********** ********.

Domain ******

***** *** **** ***** ******* ** *** **** ** *********** that *** ********* ****** *** ********* ***. ** **** ** be * *** '******' (******* ******* *** ****) *** **** people ** ********* ********** **** ** **. *********, ********* *** GLG ~$*** *** * ***** **** **** ****** ************* ******. Those ****** **** ********* ******* ********** ** **** ** ***** on ** ** ******** *** ****** * *******. **********, ***** are ***** ** *******, ******** ****** ** *********** **** ** amateur ** **** ***** ** ******.

*** ****** **** ************ ********* ** *** ** *** **** there. **** **** ** ******* ****** ** ** ******** ****** to *** *** ***********. **** **** **** ***********, ************, ********, integrators, ***., ***. **** **** ***** **** **-********* ** ********* or **** ******* ** ****** *** *** ***** ** ****. All ** **** ***** ***** *** ******* ***** **** ** 'really ***** **' **** *** ****** *******'* ************** ** ******* 'information' ** ****** ******* *******.

Company ******

******* *** **** ******** ******* ** *** **** *********** ************ investors *** ******** **** *******'* **********. ******* **** *** ***, CFO, *** ** ** ******** ********* *** *** ******. ******, company ***** **** ***** *** *** ** **** **** ***** people (***** ** ** **** * ***** ** ****** ** land * ***** *******, * ************ ******** ** ********* *** public *********). ******** **** ***** *** **** ******. ***, ****** there *** **** **** *** ** ******** **** *** ** said / *********, *** **** *** *** **** ** **** with ******* ** ** **** *** **** ** *** ******* details **** ***** ******* **** ** ****** ***** ** *** you *** ****** **** ** ******* ** ***** ** ***** are ********.

*** ******* **** ********* **** **** ** ***** ***** ******* with ******* ******** ****** **** *** ***** *** ********* *** impressed **.

********

************* ****** **** ***** *** *******, ******* ** ** **** or ******** ** ***** ** *****. ** ** * *********** that ** ****** ***** ** **** **** ***** ** ***. Move **, **** ***.

** ********, **** ******** **** ***** ********** *** *** ****** attached.

Thesis *******

** "********** ******" ******** *** ****** ** *** *** **** makes * ******* ** ********** **********. ************ ********* *** ****** and **** ******* ****** *********** *********** ** ***** **** ** investment ****** *** *******.

*** ********, ** *** ********* ** ****, *** ******* **** investment ****** *** **** ** **** ************** ******* ** * **** **** ****** ********. ** ***** ********* **** $** *** ***** *** ******* at **** ~** *** ******** ****'* *****, ****** ** *** company's **** ***** ****** **% ****** ****.

************, ***********, ********* ******* **** *** **** **** **** (*) Avigilon ** *** * ************** *******. ********** ** * ****** **** ******* ******* *** *** ****** rate *** ****** ** ** ************* ***** ****** **** *** broken **. ****, ********* *** ********** **** (*) *** ***** market ** ***** ******* ***** ******** **** *** ******* *** that (*) ** ** *** **********, *** * ******* ******* offering ** ********.

**** ***********, *** ********* ********** **** ***** *** **** **** able ** ****** *** **** *********** ***** ******** ***** ***** manipulation *** *********.

********

****** **** ** ******. ****** *** *** ******* *** **** to ***** *** **** *** ***** ******* ****** *** *********** that ************* **, *** *** *********** ******** *** ** * steep ************ ** *** ****.

****** ******** ** *** ****** *** ******* ***** ***** ** index ***** *** *** ****. *** ** *** ***** ***** you *** '**** *******', **** ******** *** *** ******** ******* those *** ********* ***** * *** **** ** *** ***** than ***.

Comments (26)

***** ********* *** ********* ***** ***** *********** **** ******** *********** that ** *********** ********.

**********, ***** *** ***** ** *******, ******** ****** ** *********** that ** ******* ** **** ***** ** ******.

******* ** ***-****** ******** *********** ** ******* ******, **?

******* **** ********.

***** *** ********* ***** ** *********** *** ****** **** ** fine, **** ** *** *** **** ** ****.

**** *** *******, *** **** **** ******* ***** *** **** if **** ** *** *** ******** ********** ***, **** ************ about ********, *** *******, ******** ***** *** **** *** * lot **** ***** **** ***** ***********, *******, ***.

**, **** *****'* ***** *********** ** ******* **** *******. *** is **** *** *** '**** ** ********* ** *******' ** buying?

*'* *** ********* *** ***** ** *** *******, *'* **** pointing *** **** *** *** ** ***** ***** **** ******* for ****** ** '******** ******' ** '*********** ***********' **** '******** individuals' ** *************.

*** ********: ******. *******.

********* ********.

** *** *** * ******* **** *** *** ******** ** tens ** ******** ** ******* ** *****, *** **** *** special ********* **** ****** *********. ***'* ****** ** ** *** within *** ******** ** *** ***, *** *** **** *** to **** **** ****, *** ******* *********, **** **** *** etc. *** *** ****, **** ***** ** *** ********* ** your ****. **'* **** ***-**** ****** * ***** ************ ************ for * **** ******. *** ** ***** ** **** **** down?

******* ** ******* ******* ****, **** '** *** ***** ** fire *** *** **** ****', ***** ** **** ** ********* legal **** *** *** ***** **** ***** *** ****. *** example, **** *** *** *** ****** ** *** ******? ******** rely ** *** ** **** **** ***** ****** ******* ("*** the ****** ** ******* **% * ****"). ************ ********* **** the ********* ** ***** / ******** **** ******** **** *** players ** *** ***** ***** ** *** ** *** **** is ***** ** ****** *** ********.

****** ******* *** *** ********* *** ******* ******* - *** went **** *** *********** ** ******* *** ***** ** ************* (about *** ******* ********* *** ******* ******* ************* ** *** broker)

*** *** **** **** ** *** *** *** ***** ** applied ** ** *******?

**********, *.*., ***. *, **** - *** ********** *** ******** Commission ***** ********* **** ** *** ******* ** ********* ** settleinsider ******* ******* ******* ****** ******* *** ***** ********* relating to Stewart's sale of ImClone Systems stock in December 2001. Under the settlement, Stewart agrees to an injunction, disgorgement of losses she avoided, and *** ******* ******* ** ***** ***** *** ****** *** *******, for a total of about $195,000 in monetary relief

**** *. *********, ******** ** *** **********'* ********* ******** ******, said,"This ********** ******** ********** ** ****** ** ********** ** ******** **** ****. The combination of monetary relief and future professional restrictions serve both to sanction *** **********' ******* ******* and to restrict them from future positions of investor trust."

**** *** ** *** ***** **** ** *** ********* *** had ******* ** ** **** *** ******** ********...

****, ****** ****.

******* ******* ** ** ***** *** *** *********** ** ****** stewart *** ***.

* ****** *** *** ** *** ******* ********** ************* ** the **, ***** ******** ********** ** ******** *** ************* **** were ***********, ******* ** *** *********, ******** **** ********* (******* morale), ** **** ** ******** **** ***** *****, ***** ********* (gauging *******, ******* *******, ***.), ***** ********* (** **** *** on ****?), *** ** **. **** ** **** *********** ** readily ********* ** ************, *** ** ********** ******** *** ****.

*** ********** ******** ******'* *********** **** ****** ** *** ** this ***********, *** ***** ********* ***** *** *********, **** ** their *********, *** ** **.

*****, **** ********!

*** **** ***** * *** **** ******** ********** ** **** companies *** ****** ** ** **** ********* ** *** ******* investors **** ***** ********** ** ***** **** ***** ******. **** would ********* **** **** **** ****** *** *** **** ****** / **********, ***** *** *** ****** ********* **********.

***! ******* ***** **** ***, ****. **'* * ****** ** degrees. *** **** ******* ***** ********. *** ********** ******** ***** have **** **** ******* ******.

*****, ** * ****** ** ****** ** *** ****, *** example, * ***** ***** * *** ***** ** ****** *** store (***********, ******, ************, ********** *************), ******* *** ******* **** (security, ****** *********, ***.), *** ** **.

** * ***** *** ****, * ***** * *** **** IPVM. * ** **** ****** ** ******** * ******* **** a ************ **** ********* ******** ** *** *** (*** **** distracted **** ******** *******, ******, ******** *******?) ** ** ********* straits (*** **** ******* **** ** *******, ***** ********** *** fatigued?) **** ********** ***** ** *********.

***'** ***** **** *****'* ******* ********* *** ******* *********. ** have ** **** *** **** ** **** ** *********.

* ********** ****** **** ****'* ******* ********* *** **** ***** stacked ******* ******* *********.

********* *** * ***** ***** ** ******* ******* *** ***** funds **** **** ******** ***** * *********** ****** ****** ******* **** *******/******* ** *********** ** - or ** ***** *** **** - * **** ****** ********** within *** ***** ** ************ *******. * ****** ********* ******* it.

*** ** *** ****** ********* ***** ***** ** *** *********** above ** *** *** ** **** **** **** '****** ********' - **** **** *** ********** ***** ** ****.

** *** ****** *** *****, ** ******* ********* **** *** investor ***** *** *** **** ** ***** **** ** ** use ***** '****** ********' ** *** *********** **** **** *** able ** ***** **** *** $*** ***** ***'* ** ********* to ********** ***** *****. **** *** *** ****** ** **** about ****** ****** *** *** ***** ** ******** *****, ***.

* ******'* ***** ********* ******* **** ** ********, ******* (*) GLG ** ****** ******* ***** ******** / ********* ***** '*******' and (*) *****'* ****** ** ***** *********** **** *** ** provided **** ** ********* *****. *** *******, ** ******** *** gets ******* ** **** **** *** ******** ******* *** *********** of *** *********** ** * ******, ******* *** ** *********, and *****'* ******* ******* ***** ****; **** * ***-******** *** working *** ********.

*'** *** ***** **** ***, ******** * **** ***************, ***** ****** **** *******. **** ********** ****/********* *** ** to **** ***** ***** **** ***********/********* ******* ********* ***** ******* industry ********, **********, *** ***********.

* **** ***** **** ***** ******* ** ***** ********** ***** a ****** ** *********** ***** ** *** ***** ** ****** and **** ****** **** **** *** ****** ***** **** *****.

***, *****'* **** * ****** ** *********** *** ****** **, as ** ******* ** ** * ****** ********** ******** - use *** ******** ** ******* ***** ***********, **** **** *********, etc.

** ** **********, *** *** * ***'* *** ** **** chip, **** ********* ***** **.

* ********. * ***** *** *** ****-*********** *** ******** ****. I ** * ************ ********. * ***** **** *** **** is ******* ******* *** ***** ** *********:

  • *** ********
  • *** ****-*********
  • *** ***-********
  • *** ********
  • ***** ********
  • ********* ****-******

********* **** *** ***** *** ** *********** ** *************. * have **** **** ** ****. **** *** ****-****, ********** ********* can ** **** ****, * *****, ** **** ******* **** or **** ** *** ********* ******:

  • *************
  • **************
  • *********
  • *******
  • *****-********
  • *****
  • **** **********
  • ********** ****

** ** *****, *** ********* ***** **** ********. *** **** than ****, ** ***** **** *** ********* *** ********. *** are ****** *** ** ** ** **** *** ** *** the ***** **** ** **** ****** **** ************ ****. * think *** ******, ** ******* ******* ** *** ***** *********, said *** ****** ******** *** **** ****** ** ********* * stock ** *** ***** ** ********* * *** ** * school *** **** ****.

*** ********* ***** *** *** **** ********* ******* *** ***** picking ** ***********.

  1. The *********** ********, by Ben Graham, 1949. The bible on value investing.
  2. Common ******, ******** *******, by Phil Fisher, 1960. The bible on growth investing.
  3. One ** ** **** ******, ** ***** *****, 1989. Makes the case that individual investors can outperform professionals.

***** *** *** *******.

*, ***** ********. * ******* ***** **** *** ***** *** important ********* ******. *** * **** **** **** ************* **** lack ****. * **** **** **** **** ************* *** **** money **** ********* ******* ** ********** ******** ** ******** ****** companies **** **** ***** ***** ******* / ********.

**** ****, ** *******, ************ ********* **** ***** **** ***** traits **** ******* ****. **********, *.*., ** * ******** ** the ******** ** **** ********* ******.

* ** *******, ******, ***** *** ********* *** **** ***** traits, *** *** *** *** *********** **** ** * ***** professional ************, **** **** ** *** ***** **** ********.

****** ***** ** * ***** ************* ** ****** *** ******* about *** ********** ** *******. * ******** ******* *******'* **** many ***** *** **** * *** ******* ********** * ***** find ***** *********. ** ****** ******** *** ******** *** * don't ****** **** **********, ** ***, * *** ** *** central ****** **** ******* *** ********* *** ** * ****** nobody *** ************ ********** *** *******. ******* * ****** ** at *** **** ** *** *******. ***** **** * ****** that **** **************.

**** * ******** ********** **********, ***** ****** *** ***** ** have * ******* *********? ***** ***** *********, ******, ****** *** Lynch, *** ***** ***** ** ***** ****** ** ***** ******* of ********* ***** ********* ******** ******* *** *******, ** * book ** * ********** **** ********** *** ****** ** *** this ** **********.

** ** ***** ***, ** *** ********** ** ***** * have **** * ****** *** ** *** ************ ** *** markets ** * ***** ******. ***** **** *** ****** *** because * **** * **** ****** ***** ** * ** thorough ** ** **** ** * ** **** ** ******* recognition ** * ** *****. * **** * **** ****** of ******** *** * **** **** ******** ** ****** **** the ***** ** **** ** ******** *** **** ****** *** less ********.

*** *** **** ** *** **** ** ***** **** * ever ******* ****** ** ***, **** **, ******* *** ****** in ****** **** **** * ** ** *** ********. * am ****** **** *** **** **** *** *****, **** ******, stock *******: *******, *****, ******, *****, *************, *******, ******, ***.

*** ** ** **** **** **** *********, **** ** *********, are *** **** ****. **** *** ** *** **** ** the ********** ******** ******* ** *** ********* ****** ******. ** provides * **** ****** *** ***** **** ***********. ** ** back ** ****, ** ***** **** ** *** ******** ** Tiger *****' ****** *** *** **** **** ****** **** ****** can ******* * ******** ****** ** *** **** **** *** long ****?

* **** *** **** * ******* ** **** ***** ************* investors **** ****-**** ***** ******* **** ***** ******** *** ****** walk ***** *******, *** **-**% ****** ******* *** ** ***** or ****. *** *** **** ******** * **** *** ** an **********, * ******* ********, *** *** ****** *** *** small ***** **** ********* ******* $***-**** **** * ****** ** so. ** ******* ** *** *** **** * ***** *** with * ******* ******* **** *********** *** **** **** ********. He ******* *** *********** ******** ***** * ****** *** *** shyness *** * **** ** ******** ********* *** ** *** way. *** **** ***** ** ** ****** ****** ******* ** interpret ********* ********** *** ** ******* ****** ****** ******* ** abnormally *** ******. * **** ******* *** ** **** **********.

***** ** * ****** ** ******* ***** ***** ** ****. But * ***** ********* ****** ** *** ** ******* **** others ******** **********.

*******'* ***** ** ** *****. * **** *** **** *** whole **** ***** ** ***** ** ********* ******* ****** ** college *** ******** ******* ** ** ****** *** **** ***** is ***** ******* ******* ********* ****** ***** ** ****** ** index ****. **** ***** **** ***** ** **.

** ***** ** ***** ********* / ************ ** ********** ******. It ** ******* **** **** ****** **** **** ****** *********** that *** ******* ****** *** ********** ******. *********'* **** ** ********. * (*** **********) **** ****** **** **** * *** weeks ****** ****. ***, * ***'* ****** ** ****** ** all *** ****** ***** *** ****** *** ***** *** **** advantage ** **** **** ** ***** ***********, ***** *** **** of *** ****** **** *** ** ** *****.

******** ** **** ** ** *** **'* **** *** **** of **. *** *** ***** *********** *** ***** **** ** money ** *** **** *********** ****, *** **** *** ******* free ** **** *** ***** ***********, ** ** *** ***** in ******* ** ** **** ******* ** **** * ***** decision ***.

****, *** ********** ******** **** *** ****** ******* ***********, ********** committees, ********* ********** ***********, *** **** *** ****-******, *** ******* returns **** *** ***** ******* ***** ****** ******** *** ***** returns *** *************.

***'* ******* ********* ** ****. ***** *** * *** ** elements ** * ********** ****, *** ********** ****** **** ** perfectly. ** *** ** ******* ******** *** ******. **** ******** on ******** ** * *** **** *********** *** ****** ** driver. *** ****** ***** *****, **** *** ****** **** *** new ******** ****** ********** ******* *** *****'* **** **** ****? Maybe/maybe ***.

*** * ****** ** ******** ********* **** **** **** **** under ** ***** ***. ** **** * ****** ***********:

**** ****** ********* **** ****: **** ******* * ***** **** of ******** ******** *** ******** **** **** ******** ****. (***** Lynch ******.)

**** ******** *** ********* *** ********* ********** ***** **** ** Google *******: ***, **** **** ***, ********, **. ***** **** explained ** ****** ***** **** ***** **********, *** ******* * dividend *** ********* ** ** ********* *** *** *** ****** a ***** ***. (******** ** *** *** ****** ******.)

**** ******** *** ******* **** ** ********* ** ******** *** businesses, ****** ********* *** ********* ***** *** ******** *** ***** their *** ************. **** ** ******** *** ** ****'* **** anything ****** ****. (******** ** **** ****** *** ***** ***** methods.)

**** ****** *** ****** *** **** **** **** *******, ******* out **** * *-* **** ******. ** ******, **** *** timing *** ** ******** **** **** ** **, *** *** main ***** *** ** ***** * ****** **** **** ***** repeat.

****** ***** ** *** ***** ******, ***** ********** **** *** a ****** ****** ** *******, ** *** ****. ******* ***** make ** ********** **** *** **** ******.

******* *** ******* ****** ** ******* ** ********** ****** ** a ********* *****. ***** **** ***** *** ******* ** *********** a ****-*** ****. *** ***, ******** **** *****.

*** *** ** *** ***********? *** **** *** **** **** can ** ****** **** *** *******? ** *** *** ****, I ***** ******* **** ******* ******* ** ****** *********** ****** into *** ******* ** ******* ***** ** ***** ****, *********** that **** *********** ***'* **** *** **** ** ******* ** do **.

******* **** ****** ***** ** * *** ** *** *** pop ********** ***** *** *****, **** ********** ** ** ** being ******at *** ***** ***** by casual individual investors? The dumb money, so to speak?

*'* ******** **** ****** ******** ** *** **** **** *** effectively ********** ** ************* ** ******.

** **'* *** ******* *** ***'*, *** *** ***'* ** have ******* ********** ************* ********** *** ** *****, **** ** they **** **** ************* ** ****.

********, * ***** ******** **** *** ********** ******** ** **** from ******** ********* **** *** ******, ** *** ******* ************:

********* ********** ***********, *** ******* ******* ****

*********** **** **** ** **** ** ******* **** *** ********* income ***** **** *** **** ** **** *** ******* *********.

* ***** *** * ***** **** ** ****.

** *****, *** *** **** ***** *** ******* ******, *** then *** **** ** **** ***** *** ******* ********.

***** ******** ****** ** ** **********.

**** *** **** * **** *********** *** ********* **********. *** me *** ** **** *** ********** **** **** ********* ***********.

* ** ******* * **** ** ** ******** ********* ***** these ****, **** *********** ******, ** **** *****-****. *** **** summarizes ** *****-**** ****** ** *********** **** *****-**** *** **** leading ** * **** ******** ***** ****. *** ****** ** taught ** *** *********** ***, *********, ********* *** ********* ****** people *** ***'* **** **** **** ********** ** ***** *****.

*** ** ******* ******** ** ****? *** * ******* ******** website **** **** **** *** *********** ******** *********? *** * new ************ ******* ** * ******* ****** **** ** *****? Can * ******* ******** ****?

******** **** *******, ***** * **** *****:

"*** ****** ***** *** *** ********* ****** ****-********** **********... ** effectively ****** ****** ** ********* *** *** *** ******* *********. Then, *** *****, ** ****** **** ** **** ******* ***** boundaries *** ** *** ***... *** ***** ******** ******** ** you **** ** * *** *******, **** *** ***, *** tried ********* ***, **** ** *** ****'* **** **** *** were ***** *** **** ** *** ******** ******* **** ******* to ** **... *** ***** ** **** ** ***'* ****** know **** *** **** ****** ***. *******, ** **** *******, attitudes, ********, *** ******** *** ****** ********* ******* *** *** taking ** *** **********, *** *** ****** *****, *** *** exploring **** ***** ** ********... **** *** *** ** ******** and ************* ******** **** *** ********, **** *** ******, *** your ******* ** **** ******** ****** ** **** ****."

******* ** *** **********. ******* * ****** **** ***** *** optimistic ***** *** ***** ******. *** *** ****.

"**** *** **** * **** *********** *** ********* **********."

** ********* ***!

****, * ********** **** ******** **** ********** ** **** ***, though *** *********** * ******** *****.

*-*, **** **** ******* ******** ** ********* *** **** *** shared ** **** **** ****. * ***** ** *** ** son ******* ** * *****, *** ** *** ** ********. He's * ******* ***.

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