Examining HDcctv's Bold/Dubious Claims

Info4Security features an interview with the HDcctv Alliance. Most of the article covers topics we have previously reviewed in our HDcctv competitive analysis. However, there are a few interesting points to consider:

• They claim an "an order of magnitude lower price performance or cost effectiveness in [HDcctv compared to] the IP cameras." 10x? It's a wild claim and I am surprised the interviewer did not object.
• They implied that IP cameras could be obsolete in 18 months to 2 years. Certainly cameras will improve but to say it's obsolete is simply fear mongering. Here's a review of the Axis 207 from 4 years ago - still a perfectly acceptable camera to use in deployment. Note: I believe that analog cameras likely have a longer lifespan that IP, simply that the aggresivness of the statement is too extreme.
• They compare CSST, a HDcctv member to be close to the size of Pelco. That's extremely misleading. 77% of CSST's revenues comes from installation services in the Chinese market. while CSST's revenue may be $500 M USD, only 16%, or approximately $80 M USD comes from manufacturing.
• In 2013, they project HDcctv cameras will be 30% of sales and IP only 15%. In 5 years, they expect IP to only grow from 10% market share to 15%. This implies an IP growth rate of under 10% per year (which is almost impossible to believe outside of the IP camera market collapsing).

Quote: "In about 2013, have 55 per cent of the market still as standard definition analogue, 15 per cent IP – growing from maybe 10 per cent today – and the remaining 30 per cent: HD CCTV."