Convergint Outlook Turns Negative

By John Honovich, Published Apr 16, 2020, 11:24am EDT

Convergint's outlook has turned negative, according to bond rater Moody's, released shortly after IPVM's report about Convergint's billion dollars in junk debt.

Numerous Convergint employees were outraged by IPVM's report, even claiming that junk made up "95% of the market". This is wrong, per S&P, it is just 28% of the market. Junk debt is dangerous, especially so in the coronavirus crisis.

The chart below overviews Convergint's debt-fueled acquisition boom, their ambitious hopes to hit $2.3 billion revenue in 2023 and Moody's expectation of sharply declining revenue for 2020:

Inside this report, we examine these 3 dynamics, including the key positive factors Convergint has going for it, the downward pressure from the debt and Coronavirus and the future challenges for the once high flyer.

Moreover, we examine the details of the financial covenant on Convergint's debt and how this restricts their ability to operate and puts more pressure on their employees.

*******

*** *****'* ********* ***** the ******** ******* -** ***** *, **** press ********** **-**** ****** ************ ***** ****. *** credit ******* ** *** publicly ********* *** ** purchased ** *** $***, reviewed ** *** ******* it ******. ********* ** the ****** ******* ********* us **** ******* *** document ******.

Revenue ********* '** ***** **%'

**********'* ******* ** ******** to ******* ** ***** 10% **** ****, *** Moody's ****** *******:

** ****** * ******** in **** ** **********’* historically ****** ******-***** ******* growth ****, ** *decline ** ** ***** **%, and some margin pressure, resulting in higher Moody’s-adjusted debt-to-EBITDA leverage between 9.0 and 10.5 times. [emphasis added]

************** ***** **** ******* was'**** *** ** $*.* billion *******'. *************, ***** forecasts **** ** **** ~20% ** **** ****** a *******:

*****'* ******* *** ******* to ******** **** ******** of ************* $*.* *******.

*** **** ******* ******** certainly ******* ** *** the *********** ****** ***** out.

Covenant *** ********* *********** *****

*************, **** ****** ******* with ********* *******, ********** has ******* **** *********** due ** *** ***** junk ****. *****'* **** it *** **** **** (the **** ****** ****** given *** $** ******* for *** ** ** 2019) *** *** * $75 ******* ******** ***** it ********* ***** *********** hit. *** **** ******* falling ******* ***** ***********, this ** ******* ****** pressure ** ***** ****.

*****'* ******** *** ******** mechanics ****:

*** ****** ********* *** a ****** ********* ********: a ******, *.******* *** *****-**** *************** ******** ** *** revolver ****. *** ******** is ********* ** ******** borrowings ****** **% (***** $26 *******) ** *** commitment....

**********’* ************* $*** ******* of (********* ****) *****-**** term **** ****, **** the $** ******* ********

********** *** **** *** a ******** ** *** $75 ******* ******** ****** it ********* * $***+ million ****** ****** *** rate (*.*., ** ******** the *.** ***** ****** of *** ***** **** of $*** *******). *** problem ** **** ******* declining *** *********** ***** costs **** *** **** to ***, ********** *********** EBITDA ** *** ***** of *** **** ** very ****.

Pay ****, ********* *** '******** ****'

*************** *** ************ ****** significant ************* **% ******* *** salaried ********* **** ******** of ********** *******, *****'* described ** **** **********:

*** ******* *** ***** quickly ** ****** ******** costs *** *** ********* discretionary ****** *** ********* expenses.

***** **** *** ********** necessary **** *** *********** of **********'* ********** *** bondholders ** ****** *** bond ******** *** *** run *** ** ****.

Cash ********* / ******* *** ****

** **** ***, *****'* is ********** ****, **** those ******** ****, ********** will *** *** *** of ****:

**** ****** ******* *** company ******* * **** 2020 ** ***** **** cash ***** *** ** breakeven ** ****.

** ********** **** *** out ** ****, **** only **** $** ******* left ** **** ** tap ******* ******* ********** the ********, ***** ** just *.*% ** * billion-dollar ******* *******.

Re-Occuring ** *********

* ******** **** *****'* called *** *** *** the ***** ** ***** a *******-***** ********:

********** ** ** **** due ** *** *******-***** nature ** ******** ************ projects *** *** ******* lack ** *********, ********- or ************-***** ******** **** would ********* ******* ******* against *** ****** *** cancellations.

***** **** ** ******* obvious *** ****** ***********, Moody's ********* ** **** emphasize ****:

*** *****'* ******* *** the ********** ****** ****** answered ****'* ******** ** this, ****** *** **** subtle *********** ******* '**-********' and '*********':

****’* *** * *************. It’s **** **** *****’* a ****** ********** ******* “re-occurring” *** “*********” ******* models. ********* ******* ******, like ************-***** **** *** software *** ***** ** companies *** *****-********** *********, are **** ********* *** more **********, ***** ****’** contract *****. ********* *** typically ****-**** *** **** provide **** ******* ********** in *** ****. **********, however, **** *** **** recurring ********-***** ********. ***revenues *** “**-*********”, ** **** **** ****** ********** **** *** **** ********, *** **** *** **** **** ******* **** ************-***** ********. Each installation job is in effect a one-off project that does not in itself provide for an assured, future revenue stream the way a subscription contract does. That being said, each ************ *** ** **** ** *********** ** ***** * ****** ******* ************ **** * ******** so that that customer would use Convergint again in another project. Convergint seeks to grow along with its customers as they grow. [emphasis added]

***** **** ** *** aim ** ********* *** security ***********, ** ***** of ******, **** ** the ******* ** ****** lots ** ****. ******** can *** **** ** immediately *********, ************, ***** for ******** ** **** than * ****. **** puts ******* ********* ******** when **** ******** ***** needs ** ** ****.

No **** ************ *** *** **** ***** ******

****** *** ****, *****'* says **** ************ *** on ****:

** ** ****** ** conserve *****, ** *** also ****** ** *** historically ****** *********** *******

** ****** *** ******* to **** **** ********** in ***** **** ** order ** ******** *****.

$2.3 ******* ** ****

***** ** ****, **********'* plan ******** $*.* ******* annual ******* ** ****, a **** ** ~**%, shown ** *** ******* right **** ** ****:

** ********, *** *** line ******* **** ********** Moody's ********** ** ******* falling **** **** ****'* 'just *** ** $*.* billion' ** ~$* *******.

***** **** ** ******* to $*+ *******, **** like ***** **** ~$*** million ** * *******, was ** ***** **** based ** ************ - what ********** *** ******** to ** **% *******, 10% *********** **** ****.

Outlook **** - ****

*** *********** ********* ** so ******** *** ******* that *********** **** ******* any *******'* ******* **** be ** **** ** difficult.

*******, ** ****** ********** will ** ********** ** maintain *** ~$*.* ******* revenue ***** **** ******* last ****. *** ******* driver ** *** ****** in *** **** *******. Convergint *** ***** ****** advantage ** **** ********* during *** **** *****. They **** *** *********** maxed *** ** **** and ** **** ** difficult *** **** ** access *********** **** **** levels ** * ********* or ****-********* *****. ******* that **** *** ********** of *********** *** ****** of ********* **** **** acquired *** *** ***** scale **** **** *******, their ********* ** ****** may ** ******** **** a ***** ** ****** as **.

Vote / ****

Comments (28)

**** *** *** * Moody's ***** -********** *****'* ***** ******************** *****'* ****** *******(*********). ** ** **** in *** ****, ** bought *** ******** *** full ****** ******* *** the ******* **** *** allow ******* **. *** archiver ***'* *** ** post *** ***** ** the ****** **** *** we'll ***** **** *** add ** *** **** of *** ****** ***** today.

***, **** ***** ******** ****** ***** Convergint ********* **** ***** anger ** ****. * ********* **** it ********** ** ********** their ******** *** **** most ** **** **** an ********* **** ************* of *********. ** *** plus ****, ***** ***** shows *** ******** ** Convergint *******, ***** **** help **** ** **** crisis.

* **** ** **** for *** ******* ** products *** *********** ******** on *** ****** ** the ******** ** ** relates ** *** ************, yet ****** ** ***** like *** **** ***** to ** ** *** to **** **** *********** with ***** ********* *** outrage ********.

******* ********** ********* *** venting ***** ***** ** that ******* (*** *'* sure **** *** ** well) ******* ** ***** extremely ********* ***** ** seems **** **** *** whatever ****** ********* ** pile **. *** ***** are *****, *** ** had ** ******** **** employees, *** **'** *** taken *** **** . It's *** ******** **** thousands ** ***** ********* are ***** ** **** exact **** *****. **'* starting ** **** **** you **** * ******** vendetta ******* **********. ** you *** ***** ** keep ******** *** ****** do ******* ******'* ** other ***** *********** - at ***** ****** *** "love".

********** ** ******* ********, if *** ***** ********* continues ** ************ **** no *** **** ** left ********.

***** ****** ********* * work **** ** ***** everything ** ***** ***** to ********* ******* **** crisis *** **** *** the ***** **** *** to **** ****** ****.. Perhaps ******* ** ******* negative ******** *** *** time *** ***** ****** to ***** ******** ******** about *** ** *** through **** ******?

*** ** **** *** have ** *** ** the *** ** *** day...I ** **********.

**** **********: * ** Convergint.

*** ** *********, *** do *** ********** *** Moody's *******? ** *****'* "slinging ***"?

* **** **** *** me **********, ** * were ******** ** * large ************ **** *** kind ** ********* ********* Convergint *** **, * would **** ** **** that ** **** * could **** ** ****** accordingly. *** ****'* ********** make **** **** ***** to ***** ******* ** employees? ****** ****** ***** and ************* ****** ***** be **** ** **** this **** ** **** in ******* ******* ****** or *****, *****? **** is *** ******** ** Convergint ***** **** **** with ***** *********?

* **** ** **** for *** ******* ** products *** *********** ******** on *** ****** ** the ******** ** ** relates ** *** ************, yet ****** ** ***** like *** **** ***** to ** ** *** to **** **** *********** with ***** ********* *** outrage ********

**** ** ***** * lot ** *** "******** on ********" **** ** things - *** **** and **** ** *** last ** *****:

**** *** ******** ****** Show **** **+ ************* LIVE ***

******** **** ********* ******

******* *** ****** ******

* *** **** ** just ********** ************ *** facts ****. * *** no *** ******** **********. They *** **** ********* actual ******.

*** ** **** *** have ** *** ** the *** ** *** day...I ** **********.

* ******* ******* *** passion **** ********** ********* have *** ***** *******. I **** **** *********. And ** *** ****** voting #*'* ******* *********, please ***'*. **'* ** important, ******** ********.

**'* ******** ** **** like *** **** * personal ******** ******* **********.

* **** ***** *** same ***** **** *** years **** *****, ********, Hikvision, *******, ***., ***., employees. * ***'* **** a ******** ******** *** I *** *** *** would ***** **** *** in *** ******* ** our ****** ******** ********. However, ** *** **** more ******* ** *** coverage, *** ******* ***** argue * / **** are '********' *** **'* not '********'.

******* ******* ** ******* negative ******** *** *** time *** ***** ****** to ***** ******** ******** about *** ** *** through **** ******?

* ******** ***'* **** what *** ******** ******** for ********** ** ****. Convergint ** *** *********** of ********** *** * wall ****** *****.

* ***'* **** *** of *** ********** ***** but * **** **** of ****** *** ** know **** *** **** universally *** **** *** good ****** *** **** the *&* *** '*** and ********' ** *** real ****.

*** *** **** **** gamble ** * **** problem. ** ************* ** that ***** **** *** to *** ** ****'* $2.3 ******* *** **** would **** **********, ******* Ares *** *** ********** get ***** ******. ******* in * ***-*********** *****, they *** ***** *** the **** **** **** off.

*** **** ******** ********* thing * *** *** is ****** *** ******* of **** *** ** you ***** **** **********, work **** *** ********* to ***** *** ****.

** ** **** * have ***** * ***** lot ** ******** ***** about ***********, **** ********* who **** ****** ** - ********* ******* ** exclusive ******** **** ** pricing *********** ****** *****. People ********* ******** *** in *** **** ***** but **** ***** ****** you ** *** *** times. ******** **** ***** are **** ********* ******** negative **** ***** ******* companies *** ******* ** plan.

**** ********** ** *****: I ** *** **********. I ** * **********, who ****** **** **** in *** ***********, ** this ******* *** ****** bearing ** ** ********.

* ***** **** ******* actually **** ******* *** facts **** *****'* *** explaining **** **** ****** and ************** ************ **** most *** **********. * must ***** **** ******* a *****'* ****** **** with * ****** ** business *** ** *********.

** ******* *** **** on *** **** *** bad **** ** ****. While * ***** ********* they **** *** ****, they ****** **** ** find *** ********** ***** of *** ******.

********** *****.... **** ** they **** ** **** effect **** ******** ********** or **********?

** ******** *** ****** **** * ****** a ***** ****** ***** everyone **** *** ***... sorry *** **** ********** with ****.

** * ****** *** ADT *** *** **** see **** ******* *** love **** ****. * know ** ** **** not ** **** ****** on ** **** **** the ******* *** **** is **** ** * negative *******, *** * learned **** *** **** it ** * ***** of **** *** ****** to ***** ***** ** and ***** ******** ** you ***.

***** *** ********, *********, Seeking *****, ****** **** or **** ******** ********* blog ******* *** ***** are ********* ** ******** just **** **** *** informing *** ******** ** revised *********** *** *** reasons *** (*** **** all **** "**************" *********). It's ******* ********, * don't ***** *'** **** read * ******** ******* about ********** ** ****, you *** ** **** shape *** **** ******* won't ****** ****.

* ***'* ***** *'** ever **** * ******** comment ***** ********** ** IPVM...

*****

**** **** ***** ********** Facing *********** ******

* ** *** ********** and *'* *** * competitor ******. ** ****, I ****** ***'* **** a *** ** **** fight. **** * **** interesting ** *** ******** economics. **** ****** ** about **********, *** ** could ** ***** * bunch ** ***** **********, regardless ** ***** ********. It's *** *** ** run *** ********, *** it ***** ** ******* into *** **** ***** companies *******. ********* **** isn't * *** ***** camera ****, *** ** is ******* ********* ** something **** *** **** impacts *** ********, *** also ******** ** *******.

* *** **'* *** fun ** ** *** subject ** *** ***********, but ** *** **** time, * ***** **'* valuable ** **** *** learn ****.

* ***'* ******* ** the ********* ****** ** Convergint ** ***** ** so **** *********** ***** on ***** ***, *** I **** ****** ** comment ***** *** ******* of **********. ** ** opinion, ***** ******* ** very ********* ** *** the *****. **** **** incredible *********** ****** **** branch *** **** ****** their ********.

* **** ****** **** many ********** **** ******* throughout ** ******, **** of ***** * ***** put ** *** **** top ** ***** *****. At *** *** ** the ***, ************* *** big **** ** **** business (*** ******** ******) and **** ** ********* they ** **** ****.

*'** **** ********* **** and **** ***** ***** that **** **** ****. Holding **** ** ********** is ** ***** ** however, *** ******, ******** by ********** ***** *** what ** ******* ** places **** ** ***** Door ******* *** ****** Reviews, ** ***** ***** an *******? * ***'* think *** ********* ****** be ** *** ******* at ****; * ***** you *** ** ********** in *** ***** ** Convergint ** ********* *** Leadership *** **** ******* for? * **** ***'* know **** ** ***** when *** ****-***'* *** "I ** **********"?? *** all **** ********** **** appear ** ** ******....** third, ** * ********* owned ***********? ******* ***, the ******, *** *********** has *******. ** ******* has * ******* ********* and ** ******* ** safe ** ***** ************* times (******* *** *******), but **** ** *** asked ** **** ********* hits ***** ******* *** large ************* *************, ****** that *** ****** ******** suit ** **** ******, taking * ****** ** assess ***** *** *** Corporation's ****** ***** ** worthwhile. **** ******...

***** ****** **** **** I **** **** ********** that ***** *** **** Offices ** "***'*" **** will ** ****** **** ( *** **** **** Pharma, *** ********'/****** ******), in **** ***** *** 5 ***'* **** * have **** ******** ** pick ** **** **** since *** ***** *** as ********, ****** **** have ** ** ***.

******* *** ***** *** is ******* ***** ****** ( **** *********** ******* positions ****** ***** ***'*), and *** *** ********* of ********** ***** *** the **** *** **** likely ***** ** ** cut.

* **** *** *** not **** ********** ********* these ******. *** ** the ***** *********** ** my **** *** ******* hit ***. **** *** small ***** **** ** JCI, *** ** ****. They *** ******** ***** back ** *** **** bread ******* *** *** to **** ******* ******** around.

** **** ***** *** like * ***** ** will ********** **** **** to *********** *** **** do ******, ***** **** every ***** ******* *** there. **** ********* **** out ***** **** *** next ***** ** **** monopoly ***** **** ****** out * ****** **** to *** **** ***** with ***** * *** others.

** ********** *** *********? Could * **** ***** chuck **** ** * wood ***** ******?

*****'* *****...

***** *** * *** of ******* ****** ** Convergint *** ** ** unfortunate **** ** **** are ********* *** ** this. ** ** *********** to *** *** ********* that *** ******. ***** is *** ****** *** the ********** ***** ** are **, *** ************, we **** ******* *** down **** ***** **** the ********. **** ******* during * **** **** historical ****** ****** * correction *** *** *** a **** **** ******. A ***** ** ******** recurring ******* ****** **** been *** ***** ***** the ******* *** *** to **** ******* ********** storms. *************, * *** of **** ***'* ******** that ***** ******* ** short-term **** ** *** books. *******, ** ***** have **** *** ***** decision *** *** ******* and *** *********. ** no ***** *** ****** expect * ****** ******** but ***** **** ***** economic ******* **** ****** have **** *** *** from ****** ** ** much ****.

****** *** *** **** for ******** ********. ***** are * *** ** families ****** ** **** hard ********* ***** *** and *'* **** **** even **********'* *********** ***'* want ** *** ****.

* ***** ** ******** recurring ******* ****** **** been *** ***** ***** the ******* *** *** to **** ******* ********** storms.

**** *******. *** ******** here.

(*) ** * ********* revenue ********, ********* * / ** **** **** the ******** ** ****.

******* (*) ***-********* *******-******* businesses **** ********** *** grow * *** ****** in **** *****. **** project ** $***,*** ****, million *****, $* *******, etc. ********** *** / SaaS ****** ** **** harder. **** **, *********, not ***** ** * defense ** ********** *** a *********** ** *** project ***** ********** *** pursued.

***% ****** ** #* and ** ***'* ****** defending ********** (***** ** also **** ** ** - ****** ** **** smart ******).

***** ** ** ***** that ******* ***** ******* injects * *** ** revenue **** *** *** without ****** ** ****. With *** ** **** involved, ****** *** ***** look ***** *** ** important; ********** **** **** my *********** *** *** what ***** * **** plan *** ********** ***. There ** **** **** I **** *** *** major **** *******; *** enough *********** *** * very ***** *** ***** was * *********** **** a ***** ******* ** economic *******. ** **** hot *** * **** time *** ******** *********-********* revenue ******* ***** **** made *** ************ *****.

** ** **** ***** noting - ********* ******* focused ******** ****** ****** drastically ****** *********** ** EBIDTA **** ******* ******* ones. **** * **** standpoint, ** *** ** little *** **** ******* in **** ******.

********* ******* ******* ******** models ****** *********** ****** multipliers ** ****** **** project ******* ****.

*** ****, **** ** true. **** ** **********. Moody's **** ********** *** acquired ** **** *** $1.6 *******, ~*** ****** and **** **** ** sales. **'* **** ** value **** **** ********** by ****** ***** **** by ****** *** ** lose ***** ** ***** even ** **** ******** to ***** *** ***** customer ****, ********** **** term ******* *** *******. However,**** ********* *** ********* valued ** ** ** 10x ** *****, ***** ** *** higher **** ********** *** itself *** ****** *** higher **** *** ******* project ***** **********.

***** ********** **** ***** their ******** ** *** target ********** ****** ** focusing ** ********* *******? I ***** ** ***** have **** **** ** most ********** ******** ******** buyers ***** ****** ***-**** options. ***** **** **** change **** *** **** decade, ********** *** ***** will ******* ** *** way **** ***** ******** buyers *********, ***/**?

*** *** ******* ** regard ** ********** ********* in *** ******** ************ but *** ***** ** focus ** ********* ******* extends ****** **** ****. The *** ***'* **** be ********** ******** ********* but *** ***** ***** of ********** ** ****** is **** *** **********. The ********** **** * project ******* ** * recurring *** ** ******* and ********* ***** *** even ** ******** *** Convergint ** ***** ********. My **** *** **** on ************* ******** **** worked ****** ******** *** discrepant ***** ****** ** center. **** **** **** a ***** ********* **** whom ** **** **** open ** ****, *** conversions. *'** ******* ****...

**********'* ********** ***** *** practically ******* ** *** their **** ** ************. Massive ***** ** **** they **** **** ** achieve. ****** ******* ***** past ********* ***** ** foolish. ** ******* ** more *** ******** *** timing ** ***** ****-**** era *** *** **** debt ****** * ***** corporation ****, ******* **** the ****** ** ** all. ***** *** **** great *** ******* ** this ********, *** ****. However, ** ****** *** question ** *** **** intended ** ***** ********** on ***** ********** ** the *** **** ** all **** ** ***** do - ***** ********* at **** * **********. I **** ** ***** business ******** *** ******* to **** ** *** past *** **** * had **** **** ** do **. * **** not *** **** ** dig **** *** **** funds *** *******. ** this *** ** **** do *** ***** **** like ***** *** ******? How **** *** **** planning ** **** *********** before ****** ***** *********** returned?

** * ******** *****, I **** **** ******** in *** ********** **** many * ** **** but *** ****** ** debt-loading ***** ******* **** (again **** ***** *****).

********** *** * *** video****** ** ****** ** their ********. ***** *** no ************ *** ******* given ***** *** ******** but ********* **** ***** to **** ******'* ******* up ***.

** *** * ********,**** ***** ************* *** ** *** the **** *********:

** ********:

* *** ****** *** is **** ** ****** what ****** ****** *** ahead ** ***** ** uswe **** ***** **** ** ********** ** ********* ** ** *** ***** and I could not be more confident in Convergint's short-term and long-term future [emphasis added]
***** ** ******** ** but ****'* *** **** of * ****** ********** view. ******* *** '****' or ***'* '****' **********, Convergint *** ******* **** better ********** ** *** start ** **** **** it *** *****.

******* *** '****' ** don't '****' **********, ********** was ******* **** ****** positioned ** *** ***** of ****...

***** ** ***** **********; only *** ****** *******?

***, **** ***** ** the **** ********* *********** of ** ** ***** believed ** ****** **** just ****** ****** ** make ****** **** ******.

*** ********** *** **** debt ******* **** **** of ***** ****** *** and *** **** ***'* so * ******** ** see *** ********** ***** positioning *** ********.

*** ********** *** **** debt ******* **** **** of ***** ****** *** and *** **** ***'* so * ******** ** see *** ********** ***** positioning *** ********.

**** ** **** *** companies **** ********** ********* health ******.

*****, *** ******** ******* did *** ******* ********** have **** ** **** 'underlying ********* ****** ******' than **********? ****** ***** are **** *********** **** such ********** *** * think ****'* * ********, especially ******** ** **********'* own ******. **** ** further ****** **** **** integrators*** *** ****** ********** **** *** qualify *** *** ** those ******** ** ****.

** *** **** ***** with * ******** ** taking * *** ***** somewhere **** (* ***** see ************ **** *** regular ****** ***** *** postings) ** ******* **** Convergint, ***** *** *** want ** **** *** full ***** ** ***** the ****** ** *** company *** *** ******* for?

** *** **** ******* to ****** ***** ** the ******** ******** *** bonds ******* ** ********** came **, ***** *** not **** **** ***** that ******* **** ***** help ** **** ********?

** *** **** *** else ***** ***** ******* and ***** **** ** right ** *** **** end? ***** *********. *** sorry, *'* *** ****** to ****** ********** **** Enron, *** * ** trying ** **** * point, **'* **** ** like *** ******* *** work ***, *** *** should *****, **** ***** your ***. *** **** find ** * ****** mate. ****'* *** *******.

*** ** *********, *** I ***'* **** *** maybe **** **** ** can **** ***, *** much ** ********* ********** plans ** ********** *** tied ** ** ******* stock? *** ** ** Convergint *****, **** *** the ******* *** ****** Convergint ***** ********* *** other ***** ** **** options ** *** ********** plan? ***** *****, ** your ********** **** ** heavily ****** ** ******* stock, ***** *** *** want ** **** *** true ********* ****** ** the ******* ** *** could ****** ***** ** move **** *****?

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