Axis Hammered by Recession
Published Feb 04, 2009 08:56 AM
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Axis video growth dropped from 32% to 9% and, in Europe, revenue actually declined. This is bad news not only for Axis but for the industry. The IP video market is deteoriating even faster than the economy - IP video is not recession proof (see the economic meltdown report for broader analysis and discussion).
Read the Axis 2008 year end report for the details. Here are the highlights:
- Only 9% global growth in video from Q4 2007 to Q4 2008. Over the last 12 months, revenue did not grow much at all. This was a poor year relative to the continuous claims of non stop 30%-40% annual growth.
- Europe revenue down 1%; Americas up 4.5%; Asia up 39% (though Asia only is 1/10 of total revenue)
- Immediately after this announcement, Axis stock dropped 15%. The stock is down 38% since Dec 15th when they warned of slowing growth. Overall, the stock is down 75% from its peak 14 months ago.
- Axis' guidance for 2009: "The market is difficult to assess at present and generally lower activity is being seen on the security market, which also impacts the growth rate for network video."
The question now is: Will growth be negative for Axis in Q1? It could legitimately happen since the economy is clearly worsening in most of the US and Europe.
Axis Specifically
I believe Axis is poorly prepared for a major recession where emphasis is placed on cutting costs. As I examine in the megapixel camera comparison report, when you compare Axis to the evolving marketplace, Axis' products are high quality but they overshoot most of the market at price points that will be harder and harder for end users to justify.
The Broader IP Video Market
That being said, I certainly do not think this is a problem isolated to Axis. As discussed in the 2009 Industry Guide, the nature of IP video projects and the weak business case of IP video puts the market at significant risk to this major recession.