Avigilon Is Cash Strapped, Commodity Company, Charges Analyst

By: John Honovich, Published on May 03, 2016

Avigilon has come under attack by an analyst in SeekingAlpha charging [link no longer available] that the company is 'cash strapped', 'becoming a commodity', with 'extraordinary high' management turnover. The analyst is projecting a 40% drop in Avigilon's stock price.

In this note, we look at the strengths and weaknesses of this article, offering our analysis and outlook on the future of Avigilon.

******** *** **** ***** attack ** ** ******* in ************ ******** [**** no ****** *********] **** the ******* ** '**** strapped', '******** * *********', **** 'extraordinary ****' ********** ********. The ******* ** ********** a **% **** ** Avigilon's ***** *****.

** **** ****, ** look ** *** ********* and ********** ** **** article, ******** *** ******** and ******* ** *** future ** ********.

[***************]

Poor ******** *********

*** ***** **** ** the ******* ** ******* the ******'* ******** **************** ** the ***** ************ ********, including **** ******* ****** as ******** ******** ******* their *** ********** ******. Though ** ** ********* hard *** ** ******** to ******* ***** *** nuances ** *** ********, the ******* ** ********* quite ****** *** ************. 

********** ********

**** *** *********** ******* Avigilon's************* **** ********** ********, ********* **** *** analyst ******** ** *** top ******.

*** **** ******* ********** she ***** ** ****, after *** ** ****, Avigilon *** * **** management ****. ******, ******** no ****** *** * COO *** * ********* executive *** *** ***** time execs ** ******* *** sales. ** * *****, this ** ********* * risk *** ******** *** a ******* ** ********'* size. ** *** ***** hand, ** *****, **** only ********** ****** ** the **** *****.

Cash ********** *******

*** **** ******* ***** the ******* ***** ** about ********'* ******* ** generate ****, ******:

** ****** ***** ** discounted **** ****, ******** is ***** ******* - it ********* ** ****, and ***'* ******** **** for *** *********** ******. One ***** **** ** reason ** ******** ****, say, **** ***** **** the ****, ******** **** suddenly ****** **** **** positive.

**** *** **** ******* insinuation:

********* ** ******* ***** with **** ******* - and ** ***** ** more ********* **** *** mere ********* ******-******** ********* in **** [*** ******* Alpha] *******.

Growth ** **** **********

***********, ********'* *** *** focused ** ******* *******. When ***** **, ******* cash ********** **** ****** be **********. ******, **** investors *** **** ** a ******** (***** ** funding) ** ***** ** the ***** ****** ** a *******, ***** ** is ************* *** **** important ** **** ***** and ***** **** ** is ** ******* ********** small ******* ** ****.

Cash ********** ***

******** *** ***** ********* significant cash **** **********, *** that ****** ***** ** 2015, **** ******** ****** negative *** **** **** operations. ** ********, ******** used ~$*** ******* *** *********** **** the **** * *****, including *** ** *******, the new ** ********, ***. Certainly, *** ****** (**********) is **** * ******* than *** ***** ***** investments *** **** **** generate *********** **** ** the ******.

Turning ** **** **********

** ******** **** *** analyst *** ******* ******** can ********* ******** **** from **********, ** *** when **** ****** **. Their ******** *** ***** competitive, *** ***** *** organization *** **** *** issues, **** ***** ***** surveillance ************ **** ***** *** internal ****** *** *** still ******** *********** ********* cash (*.*., ******* ****** they****** ** ** $** million ****).

Risk ** ******* ****** *** ****

********'* *** *** **** consistently *****, ***** ** wrong, ***** *** ***** for ******. *** ******* the ****** ** ******* there, ******** ** * $300+ ******* *** ******* and * *** **** competitor ** *** ****** video ************ ******.

***, ********'* *** *** turn *** ** ** a ***** ****** *** bluffs *** **** *** much **** *** *****. We ** *** **** when ** **** **** but ** ***** ******** sees *** ******* ** progress.

Avigilon ** *******

** *** ***** ****, as *** ******* ********, we ***** **** ******** has ****** *******. *** era ** **** **%+ consistent ******* ****** (****** about **% ** **%) will ******** ***** ******. Avigilon's *** ******* ****, especially *** **** **** are ********** ***** ******** currency growth, ********* *** *** lucky ************ ** *** Canadian ****** **** *** past *** ***** **** has ******* *** **** Canadian ****** ******** ******.

* *** ******* ******* for ***** ***** ******:

  • *********, ***** ***** ***** explosive ******, ** *** a *********, **** **** 4MP ******* ******** $*** items. ******** ***** ** strong ** *** **+ segment *** **** ** a **** ****** ***** than ***** ******* ****.
  • ********* *** *****, *** as ***** ** *** fact **** **** **** analytics, ** ** ******* near *** ******* ****** than ** ******* **** were.
  • ******** ** ************ ********* in *** ******* *** while **** **** * competitive, ********** ******* *****, it *** ************* **** scale ** ****.
  • ********* ** ****** ******** to *** ******, ******* Avigilon, ****, ***. *** of *** *** ** mid ***.

Strength ** *** **** *** ******

******* ***** ******** *******, Avigilon *** *** ** the ******* ******* *** to *** ********* ** the ****** (*.*., *** only ************ ** *** top * ** ****'* integrator ********* *********,***************) *** **** ** the ******* *** ********** selling ** ******* *** $6.45 ****, ***** **** remain **** **** *** buyers **** **** *** power *** ************ ** what ******** ******.

******* ** ****, ******** will ******** ** **** a ****** ******** *** many ***** ** ****, unless ** ***** ****** up, **** ******** ********* and *********.

Cash **********

*******, ** ******* *** signs **** ******** ** tightening ************. *** ***** and ********* ****** ** almost ********* ************, ** not *******. ****, ********'* historic ****** ******, **** the ******* ****, ******* ***** women ******, **** **** *** this ****.

** *** **** ** a ***** **** **** Avigilon *********** **** ********** more **** ** ************ important ** **** ****** a ****** ********.

Projection: ******** *****

****** **** *******, *** recommends ******* ******** *****, we ***** *** **** likely ******** ** *** next * ***** ** that ******** ** ******** / **** ***.

**** ******** ***** **** its ********** ********* ************, Avigilon *** ********* ******** positive *********** ****. ** see ***** ** **** already.

** *** ***** ****, everything ** **** ***** Avigilon's *** ****** ** him ******* ** *** high ******, ***** *****, exciting *********. ** *** contrary, *** ** ***** surveillance ****** *** ******* a ***** ** ***** growth, ****** ***********, *** Avigilon's ****** **** ***** is ****. ** ** not ******* ********'* *** has *** ******** ** be *** **** **** major ******** / *** of * ******* ***** ~10% ****** *** ~**% net *******.

** ********* **** **** *** up***** ** *** **** indicates, ** ******* ******** will **** * ********** attractive *********** ***** *** think **** *** ***. Watch *** ****.

Comments (6)

So.... buy? ;)

Lol, IPVM does not make stock buying recommendations.

I will say I think the probability that Avigilon gets bought for ~$20 is more likely than the price goes down to ~$10. Anything can happen, stock market crash, recession, Avigilon CEO makes a wild bad new acquisition, etc., etc.

But the stock is ~$16, down more than half from its 2014 peak and far worse video surveillance manufacturers than Avigilon are getting bought out for richer valuations (e.g., Mobotix) so there is clearly upside potential unless Avigilon blows it or the whole market collapses.

So.... buy? ;)

If you buy them, I'll borrow them from you, deal? :)

As bad as the article is on industry finer details, to me it appears to be a planned attack. Drive down stock price further, then announce buy back.

Jeremy, are you implying there is manipulation and biased information posing as credible resources in our financial system?

CEO wants to liquidate either through selling shares or an acquisition to cash out. At best Avigilon trades sideways. Sell some strangles or Iron condors then to make money for the time being.

Problem is that the options for Avigilon stock are nonexistent and relatively illiquid.

Login to read this IPVM report.
Why do I need to log in?
IPVM conducts unique testing and research funded by member's payments enabling us to offer the most independent, accurate and in-depth information.

Related Reports

Vivint Valuation Falls $1.5 Billion on Dec 19, 2019
Residential market struggles continue. Now, Vivint's valuation has fallen $1.5 billion in its impending merger. Inside this note, we examine...
"Stress in the Residential Market" - Major Lender Exits on Nov 06, 2019
The residential security / 'alarm' market is getting worse, at least for traditional players. Now, one of the biggest lenders in the industry has...
Resideo Stock Plunges 37%, CFO Ousted on Oct 23, 2019
The horrible year for the ADI / Honeywell Home spinout, Resideo, just got worse, with their stock plunging another 37% today. Not even a year...
Knightscope Sells Just 1 Net New Robot In 6 Months on Oct 04, 2019
For the first half of 2019, US government records show that Knightscope has sold just 1 net new robots ('machines-in-network'), inching up from 52...
Anyvision Aims For 2022 Revenue of $1 Billion on Jul 17, 2019
Only 3 video surveillance manufacturers do a billion dollars or more in annual revenue - Hikvision, Dahua, and Axis. Now, Anyvision plans to join...
Genetec Beats Milestone For IHS #1 on Jun 21, 2019
For years, Milestone has touted that they are the #1 VMS. Now, Genetec has beaten them in IHS rankings. But what is this? Even other manufacturers...
OpenALPR Doubles Prices on Jun 06, 2019
There is no 'race to the bottom' in cloud / AI video surveillance. In May, Verkada increased their prices. Now, OpenALPR is doing the same with a...
Knightscope Adds Just 2 Total Customers In Past Year, Yet Raising Money at $300 Million Valuation on May 02, 2019
This is no longer funny. While Knightscope has laughed it up promoting robot selfies, joking about a 'suicidal robot', the man who attacked a...
Verkada Gets Half Billion Dollar Valuation on Apr 26, 2019
Last week, when we profiled Verkada (The Fastest Growing Video Surveillance Sales Organization Ever - Verkada), we predicted they would raise $40...
The Fastest Growing Video Surveillance Sales Organization Ever - Verkada on Apr 17, 2019
Verkada has the fastest growing video surveillance sales organization ever. In less than 2 years, they already have more salespeople in the US...

Most Recent Industry Reports

GeoVision Presents AI and Facial Recognition on May 22, 2020
GeoVision presented its AI analytics and facial recognition at the April 2020 IPVM New Products show. Inside this report: A 30-minute video...
Density Presents Occupancy Monitoring For Coronavirus Protection on May 22, 2020
Density presented its cloud-based occupancy sensor to deal with Coronavirus at the May 2020 IPVM Startups show. Inside this report: A...
Openpath Presents Two Door PoE Controller on May 21, 2020
Openpath presented its new PoE controller at the May 2020 IPVM Startups show. Inside this report: A 30-minute video from Openpath including...
Bosch Presents MIC 7100 Extreme PTZs on May 21, 2020
Bosch presented its MIC 7100 Extreme PTZs at the April 2020 IPVM New Products show. Inside this report: A 30-minute video from Bosch...
Hikvision Chairman Targeted For Sanctions As Federal Watchdog Calls Out Hikvision "Serious Religious Freedom Violations" on May 21, 2020
The US government's religious freedom watchdog has criticized Hikvision for being "credibly implicated in serious religious freedom violations"....
Hikvision Temperature Screening Tested on May 20, 2020
Hikvision has ramped up the promotion of its 'temperature screening' system, including their salespeople arguing for no blackbody needed. But how...
Axxon Presents VMS 4.4 and AI Behavior Analytics on May 20, 2020
AxxonSoft presented its VMS 4.4 and AI behavior analytics at the April 2020 IPVM New Products show. Inside this report: A 30-minute video...
Indoor Robotics Presents Tando Aerial Drones on May 20, 2020
Indoor Robotics presented Tando indoor autonomous drones at the May 2020 IPVM Startups show. Inside this report: A 30-minute video from...
Directory of 89 Video Surveillance Startups on May 20, 2020
This directory provides a list of video surveillance startups to help you see and research what companies are new or not yet broadly...
FLIR Cancelling Contract With X.Labs / Feevr on May 20, 2020
While X.Labs announced the signing of a new agreement with FLIR on May 12, 2020, FLIR said, in response, on May 18, 2020, that they had cancelled a...