ABI Flips from Super Bull to Bear

By John Honovich, Published Jul 20, 2010, 08:00pm EDT

In an interesting turn from their uber-bullish position in years past, ABI Research has issued much lower forecasts and sizing for the video surveillance.

In their July 2010, announcement, ABI Research [link no longer available] claims:

  • $17 Billion Global Video Surveillance Market Size in 2011
  • "IP camera growth in particular has slowed relative to earlier forecasts." At best, we believe this is outdated and reflects results from H1 2009 but certainly not over the last 9 months.
  • "The firm now calculates 2014 as an “optimistic” tipping-point at which IP camera shipments may outnumber those of analog cameras." This is the farthest out date of any of the market firms offering such projections.
  • "Among video surveillance vendors, HP is very well positioned." The only company ABI mentions in their press release is HP. While HP may be a strong overall company, it is difficult to imagine HP is 'very well positioned' or the one company to mention in a release for a video surveillance report.

The most interesting element of this ABI Report is comparing it to the very famous ABI report from 2008 [link no longer available] when they estimated the market would be $46 Billion in 2013 and already at $13.5 Billion in 2006. The $46 Billion number was cited over and over again by companies trumpeting the explosive growth of the market.

We think this report is overly bearish on the market and the growth of the IP video subsegment. This noted, for those who want an independent source with a 'negative' stance on IP, this report will fit one's marketing needs.

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