2016 Security Manufacturer Outlook Revealed

By John Honovich, Published on Dec 21, 2015

Last year, manufacturers nailed the biggest issue of 2015, as we revealed in the #1 Threat 2015 - China report.

So we went back to the manufacturers and 100+ answered:

"Positive / Negative: Is your outlook for the 2016 video surveillance industry overall positive or negative? Why?"

Unlike last year, where 4 themes emerged, this year had only a big 2 - terrorism and Hikvision. We share their detailed comments and our analysis inside.

Dropping *** - ****** ******* *** ** ********

****** **** ****, **** few ************* ***** * strong ******* ** ******** to ** ** * positive *****. ***** **** appear ** ** **** overall ********** ** *** macroeconomy ***** **** **** than ****, **** **** economists projecting * ****** **** for * ********* ** 2016. ** *** ** side, *** ** ****** to ** ********* ** largely ******** *** *** the ***** *** ********** is** ** ** ****** instead ** **.  

Hikvision *****

***** *** **** ******** the #* ******* *** manufacturers *** ** **** in *** ********** ** responses. ******* ***********, ** 2015, **** ** *** references **** ** ***** in *******. **** *** now ******* ** **** specific ********* ****.

**** *** **** *******:

  • "********. * ***'* **** for ********* *** ** not *** ** * scorched ***** ****** ** eliminate *** *** *** competition ******* ********* *******. I ***'* *** *** any ** *** ******** competitors *** ******* **** when *** ********** ** committed ** *** ****** to ****** ****** *** destroy *********** *** ***** to ****."
  • "* ******* ** ** negative *** **** *********. With *** **** ** Chinese **** *************, *** plummeting *** *** ******* and *** ******** ******** alike, *** ******* ** certainly ***** ** ****."
  • "** **** **** ** the ********* ********* **** survive *** ******* *********."
  • "** ** **********. **** in ******. *** ** Hikvision ******** ** *** market **** ********* *** prices. **** **** **** the ******* ** **** profitability"
  • "*** "****** *****" *** market **** ***** ** the ****, *** *** Vision ****** **** **** get ***** **** ***** drops *** ****** **** year"
  • "**** *** ** *** consolidation/acquisitions *** *** ******* invasion, **** ** *** competitors *** *******. ***** this ** ***** *** business ** *** ***** term ** ** *** perceived ** * **** haven, ** ** *** good *** *** ******** in ******* ** ** lowers *** **** ** innovation."
  • "***** *** ** *********** as *** **** ******* manufactures *** ****** ** the ******."
  • "*** **** ** *** bottom *** *** ***** initiated ** *** ******* are ** **** ***** as **** **** **** to **** ***** ********** where **** *** *********** and ********** ** ****** segment."

***** (***-*******) *************, ** particular, *** * ******** outlook *** ****, **** concerns ***** ******* ***********:

  • "********, ******* ********* *** low **** ******* ********* are ********** *** ******"
  • "******** *** ****** ** installations/expansions **** ** ********** better, *** ********* ******* of ****** **** **** out *** **** **** for *********** *************."
  • "**'** ** *** **** Hikvision ***** **** *** world."
  • "*** ******* ******* *** the **** ************ ******** is ********, *** ******* will ******** ** ******* the *******."
  • "************* **********/****** ** "****** end" **** ****** *** to ******* **** *****."
  • "********...**** $*** ** ****** will **** ** $**."

Buying / ******* ******

**** *** ****** ****** under **** ******* ***** pressure, * ****** ** manufacturers ******* *** ******** of ******** ********** ** their ***** ******* *** integrators, **** ******** **** as:

  • "* ******* *** ******** from * ****** *********** is ****** ***** *** security *********** *** ******* with **** ********* *********** and *********** ****** ******."
  • "**** [*** *******] **** continue ** **** **** their *** **** ****** to *** *** **** and *** *** *** their ******* ******** ** compete **** **** ********."
  • "*** ******* ** ******** as ** ******* ********** 3 ***** *** *** have *********** ***** ****** as * ******, *** reliance ** *** *********** channel *** **** ************* reduced."

** ***** ******* ****** will ******** ** (*) manufacturers **** ********* ******* become **** ********* *** (2) ** *** ******* manufacturers ****** ********, ***** the **** ****** ***** is ** **** ****** to *** *****.

*********

*****, *** #* ******** theme *** ************* *** terrorism, ******* ********* ** the ****** ********* ** Paris *** **********. **** manufacturers ***** *** ******** for ********:

  • "*** ********* ****** ** terror ******* **** ***** a ******** **** ** 2016."
  • "********. ***** ****** **** drive ********."
  • "********. ******** ******** *** growing"
  • "********. ******** *** ********* attacks *** ******* **** increase ***** ************ ********."
  • "*** ************** ****** **** all ****** ******** *********** existing ******** ** *****."
  • "*** ************* *** *** technical ******** ******** ** a ***** ** ***** to ******** ***** ** recent ****** *** *** potential ********* ****** ** domestic *********."
  • "************ ****** **** ** be *********** *** ***** of **** ************."
  • "*** ****** **** ******* increase, ** **** *** to *** ********** **** shooting ** ********** ********, schools *** ****** ******."
  • "******** *** ** *** political ********* ** *** world, *** ********* ** the ******** **** *****."
  • "*** *** ********* **** the ******** ** ********* around *** ***** ** driving *** ****** *** quality ***** ************ *******."
  • "** **** *** ****** in *** ***** ************ industry ***** *** ****** terrorist ******* ** ***** and **********."
  • "** *** ****** **** the ***-********** ********** ******* continue ** **** *** to *** *********** ********* both ************ *** ******."
  • "********! **** *** ********* fear ** *** ******* there **** ** ** increased **** *** ******** solutions."

******* ********* ** * major ***** *** ********* video ************ ******** ** 2016 ******* ** **** happens **** *** **** few ******. ********* ** hard ** ******* *** it ** ******** **** no ***** ********* ****** will ***** *** **** time. **** *** ******** has *******, ********** **** 9/11, ** **** ******** spending ********** ** ******* by ********* ******. *******, ** is ********* *********** **** the ******** ******** **** such *******.

 

Warning *** *************** **** * ***** ************

**** ****, *** ************ had ** ********** *** quite ****************** ** *** ******** manufacturers *****. ** ** **** again **** **** ******* and *************** *** *********: 

"* ***** *** ******** will ********** *** ************** to * ******, ************ market ***** **'** ***further ************* ** *************. My guess is that some traditional manufacturers will reduce their efforts or even leave the segment all together. Perhaps Sony is one of these, due to the lower margins and Sony's financial troubles and their history of cutting business areas to reduce cost. The ****** **** ********** ******** ** ****, driven by Hikvision and Dahua. Perhaps we will also see some more Chinese manufacturers such as Uniview start expanding outside China. Most traditional manufacturers will need to lower prices or release sub-brands or special product series, such as Samsung WiseNet Lite, to compete. Some ******* ****** **** ** ****** ** ***** ******** ** *** *******, who will increase their market share in mainstream dramatically. Lower prices will start affecting the quality of the available products, until all manufacturers have adapted to the "new normal" and found ways to make products at low cost with acceptable quality. Some ********* **** *** *** ** ********* ** **** ************** *** *** ********** ** ***** *** ******** ******** **** ********. Chances are that there will be complete "camera platforms", as is offered by suppliers in China, which will almost completely remove the technical entrance barriers for the surveillance industry.... Services *** ***-****-**** ********* **** ** *** ******* **** ***** *** ******** ** *** ******** and we have seen plenty of this already. The recent $3 billion financing Hikvision secured will probably be used to bring their domestic China offering to the global market, with high service levels and complete solutions to all segments of the industry. Without consolidation the western industry will have a hard time meeting this threat. In ***** ********* *** *** * *** ***** ******* *** *** (specialized VMS, cameras, switches, etc) for parking garages, another kit for hospitals, another for retail, another for city surveillance, etc. Smart integrators will start selling to new "low-end" segments that open up due to the new price levels offered by manufacturers. Offering "******** ** * *******" **** ******** **** *** soon, since that will offer increased margins for the integrators and the financial risk will be low with the average camera price even lower than today.... As the market matures further customers will not be happy with a high number of suppliers and will require one supplier to handle all things related to IT. Security managers will more likely be part of the IT department and will **** “***** *********” ************ ******* **** **** ******* * ******* ** *********** *** ******** ******** *********. Video ********* **** ******** *** **** ****-*** and perhaps we'll see some really good analytics in 2016. More and more manufacturers will start offering "apps" to their cameras, possibly based on HiSilicon and other chip architectures than become more and more common across the industry. Sooner or later analytics will be an extremely important part of video surveillance and the newer chipsets provide more computing power and analytics capabilities."

***********

********* *********** ***** ******** across *** ******, ****** by ********* *** ****** matched ** ***** ** they *** ** ***** up, ** *********** **********. Equally ***********, ** *** the ***** ******** ****** up ****** ** **** as ***** ********* ******* their ****** *** ********* that *** ********* **** the ***** ** ******* Axis, ********, ****, *********, etc. *******.

** ********** **** **** manufacturers **** ***** ******* significant ********* ******** ** 2016. Most manufacturers *** * ******* sales ************ ** ****, **** many ******** *********. **** will **** ****** ******** at * ******* **** for ************* ** ****, forcing **** ** ******* what ** ** (******* it ** ** **** out, ***** **********, **** the ******, ***.).

***** ** *** ****** mature ********** ***** **** 2016 ** ****** *** Hikvision / ***** ****. However, ** ************* **** clearly **** ** ***** with *** *********** ******, we ** ******* **** more ******** **** ** placed ** ********** ******** that ****** ** ****** matched ** ********** ** the *******, *.*., ****** analytics, *****, ***.

*******, ** ********** **** Hikvision **** ***** ****** significant **** ****, ***** as **** ******** *** Western ****** *** ******* find ** ****** ** make ***** *** ****, and ********, ** *** industry **** ***** ********************'* ********** *** **********.

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