Nope, don't even want to guess :)
Who's putting out numbers on this? IMS, iSuppli, maybe ABI?
I just think it's crazy hard and easy to be off by a huge margin.
In terms of ratios, I think 2013 will see 66%+ units of megapixel compared to SD IP.
Jeff, have you been talking to Todd Rockoff??
Easy now Soundy, Rockoff will convince him that no IP cameras were sold.
Btw, Jeff was the ratio you have / heard? Similar or much different than my guess?
I haven't talked to him for quite a while. No, this was a number from someone else. I don't want to throw it out there yet because it could influence any opinions people want to share. I'm just not getting the numbers to add up.
I did look at Axis's half year report though which gives numbers that you can extrapolate their unit volumes from (yes... with a huge margin for error). After converting currencies and taking 10% off for their recorder business, they'll sell about $617M in cameras this year. At a $200 ASP that's ~3M units. The question becomes how close am I on their ASPs. They're #1 according to IHS, so the HikVisions and Dahuas of the world fall behind them along with all of the big branded guys. HikVision issued an announcement that IHS ranked them in the #2 position for megapixel at 11.1% share and the #3 position for all network cameras at 9.7% share. That puts someone between HikVision and Axis for all network cameras.
I haven't heard anyone predict a number as high as 66%. Are you talking total security cameras or enterprise? Even just taking enterprise into account, I haven't heard any of the big branded guys talking about anything more than 20% of their unit sales being IP.
$200 ASP is way too low, that's for sure. They sell a lot of P series fixed cameras with street pricing of $700+. Additionally, they sell a fair amount of multi-thousand dollar PTZs. Distributors get their cut, sure, but still $200 is way too low for their price. Also, besides their recorder business, you have to deduct the encoder business, which is, by Axis' own admission at least 10%.
Because of that, 3 million units is almost certainly way too high.
Even if you accurately estimate their camera unit sales, you have 2 more hurdles to jump:
- IMS ranks manufacturer by revenue, not unit sales. Certainly D and H have lower ASPs than Axis, so you need to adjust for that if you want to measure units.
- You are assuming IMS is right in their estimates/percentages. I have seen too many massive IMS errors to put much faith in their percentages. We have seen multiple manufacturers exchanges with IMS and it's typically a guessing game (IMS:"We think you did X", Manufacturer: "That's way off. Where do you get that from?", IMS: "Ok, than what would you say?")
"I haven't heard any of the big branded guys talking about anything more than 20% of their unit sales being IP."
I am talking IP camera sales only - MP vs SD.
As for the branded guys, I wouldn't be surprised (presumably you mean the Honeywell, Speco, maybe Pelcos of the world). That's mainly because the IP companies (like Axis, Mobotix, Vivotek, ACTi, Arecont, etc.) ate their lunch for the last 5+ years as the market was moving to IP (and they moved late).
Sorry. I meant encoder. I actually thought I might be a little high on the ASP. I figure that $700 camera goes out their door for less than $350, and that they also sell some sub $200 cameras.
I realize that IMS is usually way off, but it's the only data I have to work from right now. The truth is that all of the analysts are way off. The question is by how much.
On re-read, I see you meant 66%+ MP vs SD. I agree with that intuitively. It used to be that there were a few MP cameras and more SD ones, but bandwidth and storage seem to be far less of a burden now and the cost difference isn't as drastic as it was a couple of years ago. You might as well get more information, even if you choose to do it at a lower frame rate.
You are at least a little _low_ on the ASP. An Axis camera that is being sold online for $700 (already generally discounted off MSRP by 10%) is likely going out the door closer to $450. Also, Axis has a lot of fixed cameras that are $1000 each (Q1602, Q1604, the multi-megapixel P series models as well).
"You might as well get more information, even if you choose to do it at a lower frame rate."
Frame rate is no longer an issue for even HD cameras. Pretty much all the 1080p offerings are 30fps with the cheap ones at 15fps, so it's not a barrier. 5MP and higher is a different story of course.
I know, but I've had people tell me they're recording at 15 or even 7fps on their HD cameras.
Sure, that's not a problem, unless they want 5MP or more.